Random thoughts about betting and golf betting in particular
To some this may appear to be a rather random blog post but hopefully for those that bet on golf it may make some sense at the end. Music is on, glass of wine in hand – well not in hand or I couldn’t type but you know what I mean. Had a few worrying days with Mouse the dog who if you know me has been my world the past 5 years, but when I wrote a blog post the other week I realised how much I missed writing. I do little write ups for the French horses – it’s a way of actually convincing yourself you are right about something, it’s all very well saying bet so and so but if you actually can’t write something to convince yourself or others that something is worth a bet then it probably isn’t.
I don’t really want to get back into golf betting, it can become an obsession – following leaderboards for four days when at the end of the day it all boils down to the last few holes on what would normally be a Sunday finish. I won’t lie – it got me, the frustration when it just went wrong at the last minute, so I walked away. However maybe there still is money to be made, strike a bet and don’t look until it’s all over – why put yourself through the anguish of following it and every shot when basically you cannot change what will actually happen. Just have a bet and if it turns out you were were right or wrong so be it and I think that’s where bettors get stressed – a 5 furlong sprint you soon find out, a staying chase you may have 8 minutes of anguish, a golf tournament can be 4 days of pain that ends in disappointment.
However in a strange way I miss betting on golf but have to do it on my terms – ie strike a bet and walk away, why follow every shot? I still always look and the last few weeks have proved I still fancy a bet or players to go well but they really are very limited. The books have the game by the balls and rarely make a mistake but occasionally I spot something I like – so I will post those when I see them, blog posts to explain will probably be few and far between but will do when I can.
So this week I put up Robby Shelton on the Korn Ferry tour Huntsville Championship @ 100/1 e/w – which opens up the age old debate of local knowledge and home advantage. In the past I was probably a believer that playing your home course was a huge plus, these days I probably don’t think it is for a few reasons. Firstly there are huge expectations, but they are actually playing a course in tournament conditions very difficult to the norm and also you don’t actually know that the course actually suits their game. Secondly – it’s built into the price – bookmakers know that information – you would be foolhardy to think otherwise.
However – certain players thrive in “home” conditions – the area, the local support, the conditions such as weather etc but only bet if there are examples in the past to prove your point. Robby Shelton this week – Alabama born, raised, went to Uni, lives blah blah – and he has the credentials to prove he likes playing at “home” or close to home. In 2015 he finished 3rd as an amateur in the Barbasol on the PGA tour – that was some achievement. In 2019 at exactly this time of year he kickstarted his career by winning back to back in neighbouring Tennessee on this tour – the run was started by finishing 2nd in Alabama. Can he play this course – I have literally no idea, but I do know he is comfortable in this area and is actually rounding into form - @ 100/1 I’m willing to roll the dice.