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Losing runs....

I've been doing this as a "job" for 23 years and as a hobby for 15 years prior to that so I am all too familiar with losing runs - the question is - what to do when you hit one? I think there are broadly two types - the worse one is where you lose your edge completely and the second where you can plough on but maybe adapt a little and survive. Golf betting was always my bread and butter but over time the winners became fewer and further between and the places which kept the bankroll ticking over likewise. I'm pretty certain I know why (apart from having accounts closed) it simply became a matter of all books looking the same - with the advent of Oddschecker etc and the dwindling number of compilers nobody had an opinion anymore. This was then compounded in recent years with books trying to outdo each other on number of places being offered and they had to compress the outright win odds to justify it. So instead of getting 66/1 1/4 5 you now end up with maybe 50/1 1/5 8, so your occasional winner has shortened and the places have definitely. Your opinion may be different but that is my experience. Nowadays it's the French National Hunt racing for me which was going swimmingly from May 2020 and then in August 2021 decided to start charging. I don't have totally accurate results for the first 15 months as it was something new but have been very studious since! All was going well until June last year when I simply hit a brick wall October +365 September +41 August +140 July +800 June +234 May +218 April -112 March +302 February -85 January 2023 +933 December +250 November +158 October -667 September -112 August -240 July -200 June -1110 May +412 April +477 March +470 Feb +366 Jan 2022 +314 Dec -56 Nov +1069 Oct +1845 Sep +1035 Aug -310 I simply couldn't find a winner even though I was still happily beating SP nothing was working. So I went back through all the results - dropped certain types of races (I don't think I've had a bet in a Claimer since as they are too unpredictable) but I also discovered that I was better off in certain price brackets. For instance sub 5/1 shots were making a loss, 10/1 + were making a small profit whilst the sweet spot was between the two. I read somewhere a while back from Tony Calvin that he struggled to say whether a 5/4 shot should be 4/5 and I must admit it seems so do I. I haven't stopped backing shorter priced horses altogether but have certainly cut back hugely and I think that has led to a gradual upturn in results.

When you hit a losing run I think the key is don't plough on regardless and maybe just don't give up, there may well be some method in your madness - you just have to find it!

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