A quick recap on last weeks Masters – well it was a pretty good week thanks to Cameron Smith finishing tied second @ 125/1. He never really reached a low enough price on Betfair for me to trade into a decent win though I did trade enough to make sure I didn’t lose anything. Trading is never an exact science and I was concerned he could easily shoot himself out of it on Sunday but in the end he traded as low as 4/1, I was happy to take a decent place in the end. This week the European Tour travels down to South Africa and a return to Randpark where we were earlier in the year for the South African Open. Please note the easier Bushwillow course isn’t being used this week with a smaller field and all four rounds will be played on the Firethorn course. Marcus Armitage did well here for me @ 200/1 in that event, I cannot pull the trigger at 1/10th the price as he still hasn’t won yet but I will be keeping a close eye on the betting in running. Whilst I don’t try and jump on early prices at the beginning of the week I do keep an eye on who is tipping who just in case my outsiders are being tipped up and I have to act. This was a point in case with Oliver Wilson on Monday when Ben Coley put him up and I had to act quick to get what 300/1 e/w I could. He finished 3rd here in 2018 but oddly enough his bad round came on the Bushwillow course, on the Firethorn course he actually shot the lowest three rounds of the week with -12 beating winner Oosthuizen by three shots. Lately instead of shooting bad first rounds the last few weeks he has swapped to shooting bad second rounds. Maybe one day it will click and it is more likely to happen at a venue he has had past success. One other player I have had a little tickle on is Haydn Porteous who has been in woeful form in Europe since the end of lockdown. Perhaps he has missed being away from home and the last time he played in South Africa he was 2nd in the SA Tour Championship in February. He was 7th in the South African Open @ Randpark in 2018 and back in 2013 when a top amateur he won an event here by 14 (!) shots. Again maybe a happy stomping ground will bring about a return to form, 250/1 e/w and 300 on Betfair, but again only small. The PGA Tour heads to Sea Island for the RSM Classic and I have probably already said enough on Twitter about CT Pan. I think the price is too big for a player who performed above expectation at Augusta and now plays a course which is far more suitable to his skillset. I had a decent bet on Betfair £150 @ a shade under 90/1 and also backed him e/w 66/70. Brian Gay was going to be a pick but has w/d and I have added just one other player who I have put up lately – Tyler McCumber. After finishing 2nd and 6th he has missed his last two cuts but he does seem to play his best on coastal tracks and has some great amateur form in the area in SEC Championships. I have dabbled in a few markets top 5 60/1 top 10 28/1 top 20 11/1 and £30 500 win only on Betfair to trade.
- Sports Betting Index