Last week was looking incredibly poor by late Sunday afternoon, all the horses had either placed or lost leaving a level week in the book. I had a feeling it was going to be a bad week on the golf when the £200 I had invested on Langasque was down the tubes after just a handful of holes. On the PGA tour all players had missed the cut and I put up Malnati at the cut mark but even he had gone nowhere on moving day. I know I’m supposed to be predicting things but even I didn’t expect his nine under par round. I managed to lay some back at 12/1 to limit the damage, but one by one the contenders fell away and further lays at 5/1, 13/8 and odds on ensured a winning week. He held on to win the top American market @ 50/55 but was pipped by two incredible shots by Garcia. The win would have been sweet but one round of golf turned around my week and I’ll take it!
The European tour heads to Wentworth for the BMW Championship and before the off I am just backing two players, gradually learning the lesson that in play seems best. Shubhankar Sharma has been in pretty poor form for a while but last week was better in conditions which surely didn’t suit. Out early he carded one of the few under par rounds for the morning wave with only one bogey, he then backed that up with a 67. This meant he was again caught in the bad weather in the 3rd round and five dropped shots in four holes so him tumble back down. He closed with another 67 showing his game to be in good order. On his debut here last year he finished a respectable 17th but that hides the fact he was 3rd entering the final round and traded as low as 12/1. That explains my reasoning for having £60 @ 170 to trade and then I have him @ 150/175 e/w
My second pick is from way left of left field – I mean who the hell backs a player who hasn’t made a cut all year? Well that’ll be me! The “downfall” seems to have been set in motion for Oliver Wilson in the Nedbank last year where he tumbled down the leaderboard having sat 4th with a round to play but shot an 82. After the lockdown he played a couple of one round shootouts on the TP tour shooting a 67 at Walton Heath (close to home and here) and won but he hasn’t replicated that score on tour. Then last week he was out in the difficult morning but came back on Friday to finally shoot a 67. OK he missed the cut but I am sure it gave him something to work with. That was his first event since turning 40 last month, so can he be yet another player to hit that milestone and eventually get back in the winners enclosure? We saw Garcia do it last week.
I have talked about bio-rhythms before where players play well at certain times in the past – his last win on the Challenge Tour was only two years ago and was in the first week of October. Who can forget his Dunhill Links win in 2014 when in a similar vein of form and 1000/1 – again – the beginning of October.
The course has changed much in recent years, he hasn’t got in the event since 2016 and hadn’t made a cut since he lost a playoff here back in 2008, back in the day when he always seemed to finish 2nd. But living locally I bet he has played it a fair bit down the years.
It’s highly speculative but what do you expect for a 1000/1 shot and I admit I haven’t gone daft, just £10 ew with 6/8 places plus £40 at that price on Betfair and have dabbled in a few of the side markets, top English 275/1 top GB/Ire 300/1