Where do I go from here?
It’s been a tough two months after the highs of winning £6k in March I have managed to give £3.5k of that back, though I’m thankful it has been that way round. Losing runs always cast a doubt in your mind and I don’t think I would be “normal” if they didn’t. What they do do is focus the mind and make you think what has gone wrong and have I been doing anything different? Looking back I have been guilty of wondering off track and having far too many bets on the golf especially on the main tours and not sticking to what I said ie stick to the minor tours and looking for something that may have been missed. The two big payouts in March were Prinsloo in South Africa where the course form he had in the Team Championship had been missed, and the local link for Shad Tuten in Georgia. So why the hell have I been throwing good money after bad? I think after all this time I am still susceptible to not heeding my own advice and thinking I can beat the books on the main tours whereas in fact I don’t think it’s possible, well not for me anyway. On the horse racing front I simply think that the ROI I was achieving was not sustainable but I was still doing really well when I fancied one, so the smaller bets will have to go. It is almost as if I think I need to churn turnover but those bets never give a return long term. So instead it will have to be fewer but bigger bets where my prices vary vastly from what the books have. Yesterday was a good point in case, I made Prengarde 4/6 and 6/5 was available, it may not seem like a big price difference but it really is. Eventually going off 8/15 it hosed up, so those are the bets I will be concentrating on going forward.
So looking at this weeks golf there are an awful lot of events away from the two main tours but there is one that stands out to me on the Korn Ferry Tour with the Rex Hospital Open. Oddly it’s one of those bets where the win price probably isn’t that great but there is value in the place part. We have already had one local Raleigh resident win this in the shape of Chesson Hadley and I can see another local in the shape of Cameron Percy for whom this is his adopted home going well.
Although he has a PGA tour card it isn’t the first time has dropped down a grade to support and play his local event. From 2016 to 2018 he did the same and finished 4th, 7th and 6th whilst in 2019 when playing full time on this tour his 17th isn’t as bad as it may seem as it was his first event back after an enforced layoff with a fractured wrist. He certainly hasn’t been setting the world alight on the main tour and currently sits @ 127th on the Fedex Cup rankings but I can see the 47 year old playing well again in his own “backyard”. I have backed him @ 40/1 e/w – if you want to follow I would suggest trying to get the six place option.