US PGA Championship
Before I write about my two big outsiders for the US PGA Championship a quick word on the past six weeks. The marvellous month of March feels like a long time ago at the moment as my betting has hit the buffers but after twenty years of doing this I know all too well how fortunes can come and go, probably a bad choice of word but you know what I mean! If I thought I could win every week or even every month I would be a happy man but betting the way I do there will always be slumps. Basically what I am saying is past performance is not always indicative of immediate or future success so you can bet these if you like or simply pass. With a Major it is always difficult to put up exact betting suggestions as everyone will have access to different markets, plus the Betfair prices have already been cut, so how you play them is entirely up to you but I have given suggestions. This event was last played at Kiawah Island back in 2012 when Rory romped to an eight shot win and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him win again. What I have done is looked at those players who played that year and finished well above expectation and tried to find an angle with their best form. The two I looked at were David Lynn who was 2nd and Blake Adams who really surprised in 7th, and they both led me to Joel Dahmen.
David Lynn didn’t play a lot on the PGA tour – his other high finish was a play-off loss @ Quail Hollow which ties in nicely with Rory who has now won there three times. As we know Dahmen won a few weeks back but prior to that his best performance on the PGA tour was a runner up slot @ Quail Hollow. I can’t immediately see a tie with the course apart from “geography” and the fact that it has also hosted a US PGA Championship.
Dahmens’ first win came a few weeks back in the “opposite” event in the Dominican Republic and interestingly Blake Adams’ last decent performance was a 2nd there when it was used on the Korn Ferry Tour. Here the tie in is far more obvious as Puntacana and Kiawah Island are both exposed, windy coastal course with Paspalum grass.
This is a huge step up in class but a win does wonders for a players confidence and even big priced winners of Majors have often shown the recent ability to cross the finishing line ahead. Indeed looking back when Dahmen won twice on the Mackenzie Tour back in 2014 they came within three weeks of each other. It’s not like he hasn’t played well in a major before – last year he was 10th in this very one.
I had £50 win on Betfair @ 620 before someone put him up yesterday, have some 250/1 e/w 10 places, betting without the four favourites 225/1 Paddy/Betfair e/w, and if it turns into a European/ROW dominated event the 150/1 e/w top American is decent.
The next one is more a stab in the dark with no course correlation based on the fact that when Rory strolled to victory he led the driving distance category and putted brilliantly. One person who has been doing that in low key European events is Dean Burmester largely due to a recent change in putting technique. When interviewed about getting in the field he thought that Kiawah would really suit his game.
His win a couple of weeks ago ended a four year winless drought and prior to that 2017 success he hadn’t won since 2015. That year was his breakout year really on the Sunshine Tour when he won four times and interestingly it coincided with him becoming a father for the first time. It may have escaped your attention but he announced that he was due to become a father again last week and that he can’t wait to get home to his family. He is a huge family man – borne out in this quote from 2017 “The reason I practice so hard is for my wife and my son. I want to give them everything they need, not only financially but in terms of values too. I pride myself on that; it comes from my parents.” The jury will always be out on the “nappy factor” as it’s impossible to quantify, but being a father for Burmester is clearly a huge motivational factor.
Again the 780 I got £25 at has gone (not sure who has put him up) but also got 300/1 e/w 9 places, he is 250/1 e/w w/o the 4 faves at Paddy/Betfair and if you are lucky enough to have an account there the 80/1 e/w top ROW is well out of line.