So – Minellacelebration, why is it such a big price? I’ll be honest I really don’t know other than the fact that some people have looked at its two runs in the Bechers and have said it hated the fences, I beg to differ. On his first attempt in 2019 he was 10th and this is what jockey Poste has said “He jumped brilliantly but the ground was far too soft for him. He took to it really well and was bang there three out, but he just didn’t quite get home on the ground. On decent ground there’s no reason why he couldn’t go and run well.” Last year he had another crack but Poste lost his irons going round the bend after the 7th and slid out the side door. I therefore see no evidence to suggest he isn’t suited to the fences. The horses record over the Mildmay course is well documented with finishes of 1/2/1/1 and we were on when he ran away with a Veterans chase over 3m1f back in October. The National trip is a mile further than it has run before and is unknown territory but he has always stayed 3m2f really well, especially when running down Bandsman in the Summer Cup at Uttoxeter, a result that still pains me as I was on the 2nd! He seems to be a Spring/Summer horse more than a Winter one – he has also won two Staffordshire Plates at Uttoxeter in the month of May. I would discount his last two runs – didn’t stand a chance in avoiding a faller at Sandown at the second and both his runs at Kempton have been poor – maybe doesn’t like going right handed. I am not put off by the fact there will be a 91 day break between races as he has often run well fresh, in fact his last two wins have come after breaks of 138 and 111 days and has even won on the back of 171 and 405. As you can see he ticks an awful lot of boxes for me and I just can’t fathom out his price, he’s got a lovely weight of 10-5 and his style of running should suit the race just behind the leaders but up with the pace. If he gets the trip then for a 80/100 shot he should give us a good run for our money.
- Sports Betting Index