Left Field Blue Sky Thinking, an outsider for Pebble Beach?
This has come about partly because of boredom and also after last weeks blog post someone said I seem to have moved away from “thinking outside the box” with golf betting which is what I always used to do. I doubt I’ll find someone every week but I guess Pebble Beach is a good place to start as I bagged Points @ 100/1 a few years back with some odd bits of info.
This years event is very different with no amateurs and only the two courses used so players get to play Pebble Beach three times. Maybe the best place to start is the recent American Express which also changed its format to the one we have this week. I was looking for a player who had played better than he ever had at the Amex which could be put down to the changes and I came up with Ryan Armour whose previous form was mc/66/mc/mc/mc yet improved dramatically to finish 16th. A bit more digging showed his other form this year wasn’t as bad as it first seemed, he recorded all four rounds in the 60’s at the Sony to produce his second best finish there. A missed cut last week was a bit of a worry but he has missed every cut at Scottsdale however he at least managed his first ever round in the 60’s.
Basically his good form has come about because he is striking the ball superbly well, he is the most accurate player on tour but for a change is marrying that up with some decent putting. He has actually recorded positive strokes gained putting figures in each of those three starts.
Time to dig a little deeper, Armour is getting on a bit @ 44 but we have seen plenty of older winners around Pebble down the years so that’s not going to put me off. His two pro wins have been on the Jackson course in the Sandersons and in Panama on the Korn Ferry Tour. Whilst I admit they are very different to this weeks challenge guess where last years winner Nick Taylor produced his other PGA tour win? Yup Jackson. If you want to really stretch it 2014 champion Jimmy Walker recorded his first pro win in Panama 10 years earlier. It probably isn’t really relevant but adds a small percentage of analysis to the argument.
Last but not least we come to his Pebble Beach form, it isn’t stellar by any imagination but quite a few past champions didn’t necessarily have top course form. In seven starts he has three missed cuts but also 9th, 20th, 24th and 29th. The highest finish came on his debut way back in 2007 and was his first ever top ten on the PGA tour which should hold at least some fond memories. Over the last four years some of his best rounds have been at Pebble Beach so three rounds on that course may play into his hands – he has shot 67/67/77/70/70/72/70, pretty consistent with only one horror.
So how to back him, well I haven’t gone mad and I’m not sure how anyone reading this will get on but this is what I have done, all with Betfair and Betfair Sportsbook £35 win 560 average £19,500 £10 top 5 50 £20 top 10 23 £2.50 ew (grrrrr) top USA 175/1 £2.50 ew (grrrrr) w/o the big 4 150/1