30 September 22.02
Bit short of time today so just a quick rundown of why I went for the final picks
Greg Chalmers - often plays well in events on courses he has putted well on and the one time he played here back in 06 he led the putting stats
Shane Lowry - we all know his Irish win was on links and his only other decent performance was in Holland on the links and he does have some recent form at Kingsbarns and St Andrews
Joost Luiten - its taken him a while to get back from injury but played 3 really good rounds in Austria with good links form in the past
Brett Rumford - pretty average form here but has won at County Louth and did well there again this season,has started quickly the last two performances and just think he is overpriced.
Simon Dyson - not interested in the bookmaker price but 75 on Betfair just too big
Fabian Gomez - will forgive him the back nine on Saturday and he is coming into form
Brendan Steele - played Soboba every day whilst at high school here and was top of the all round stats when 7th lto
Robin Freeman - newbie on Champions Tour only one start and 8th in the last Major
Shanshan Feng - played well in Alabama last year and was 2nd here, improved form last time out with good stats. |
30 September 15.30
Last two bets for the week before the off for me are in the Champions Constellation event Robin Freeman £20 ew 80/1 and in the LPGA Navistar - wanted £20 ew Shanshan Feng at 150/1 and eventually had to settle for £5 ew 150/1 and £5 ew 125/1 and after that gave up the will to keep trying!! Hopefully back tonight with some explanatory notes. |
30 September 11.45
A very busy morning placing bets and still got one for each of the LPGA and the Champions but here is a list of bets added - if I have time will be back with reasons!
Turning Stone
Greg Chalmers £35 win 160 Betfair £20 top 6 25/1 £20 top 5 inc ties 25/1
Dunhill
Johan Edfors £30 win 150 Betfair (forgot this from Monday!)
Shane Lowry £60 350 win Betfair £10 top 5 45/1 £40 top 10 20/1
Joost Luiten £50 win 280 Betfair £25 top 10 inc ties 16/1 £15 top 10 20/1
Brett Rumford £30 win 250 Betfair £30 top 5 25/1
Simon Dyson £40 win 75 Betfair
Soboba Classic
Fabian Gomez £25 ew 80/1
Brendan Steel £25 ew 125/1
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29 September 20.24
Been sat twiddling my thumbs most of the day waiting for full sets of prices and then waiting for someone to put some decent prices up on Betfair so most of my picks have gone unbacked so far which is quite frustrating as it is Tuesday night!
I have had one bet so far in the Turning Stone and have one more to follow but Jason Bohn (again!) has seen £30 ew of my money at 80/1 and £40 win only on Betfair at a shade under 90 for trading. He has won this event before on a different course and did OK when 12th here when "defending" his win. All his best form is up the East coast and as a player who can win he seems a bit overpriced compared to players who clearly can't. |
28 September 21.31
Have just about calmed down from the weekend having had so many close to a place and then there was the one that got away in the Nationwide - was going to go for Darron Stiles but as the price changed from 66 to 60 I changed my mind and he birdied the last three holes to finish 3rd Doh!!
Anyway onto this week - the Dunhill Links - can be a bit of a lottery with course rotation/weather but there are still bets to be had and my first is Johan Edfors. His season has benn a bit in and out but it has had its highlights - a win in Asia and a 3rd over the links at County Louth and his last two performances have been eyecatching. At Crans he was top 10 heading into Sunday but shot a 77 and that bad round seemed to effect him in the Mercedes when he opened with a 78 but he then played just about the best golf in the filed over the final three rounds. The key to these rounds has been his putting which has been generally poor but the last two starts has seen a great improvement. His course form is average with a good 8th before but he absolutely loves Scotland the scene of his last European victory. £40 ew 125/1. |
27 September 21.31
I hate Sunday nights when the golf has been bad for the week - everything has just been average - Gomez should have done better - he will be just out of a place but played yesterdays back 9 in +4 - so its onto next week where things will probably be more interesting. The one bit of good news for the week comes from HBI which has hit back after a poorish month - especially when we got £400 on an 8/1 winner yesterday. |
25 September 14.44
Bit of a quiet day - golfers not going too badly but early days so turned my mind to quickly update SPOTY - still very happy with £100 at 100/1 on Ennis and was thinking the short list was very male dominated and wondered if any other females were worth looking at and what events were coming up. I noticed the World gymanistics Championships take place in London in just over two weeks time and Beth Tweddle will be going for double gold - bit of a longshot but if she pulls it off I reckon she will make the final ten and maybe repeat her third from a few years ago - anyway well worth £10 680/1 average on Betfair and £10 top 3 at 20/1 - not sure if any books quote her - I think a few are 100/1. |
23 September 14.14
Right then - have added three more picks for the week on the smaller tours - perhaps its a good thing there is no European event this week as I have struggled on it of late.
WNB - Fabian Gomez £20 ew 100/1 - like Piller his stats were great last week,has solid course form and only a matter of time before he adds to his South American wins by winning on this tour.
SAS Championship - Hal Sutton £30 ew 50/1 - for a player who has two top five finishes in his last three starts this price seems a little big - should be happy playing in this neck of the woods close to his Louisiana home and always did well in the Carolinas on the PGA tour.
Tenerife Ladies Open - Emma Cabrera-Bello £25 ew 40/1 -- should be inspired by her brothers performance last week,lives in the Canaries so should feel at home and was solid last season. On her last start on Spanish soil she was 2nd and on Sunday was 4th in her LPGA Q school sectional. |
23 September 10.33
Have spent a lot of time on this weeks Nationwide event the WNB in Texas and have found myself going round and round in circles with a long list of players I would like to back but then finding something that puts me off each one! I will go for Martin Piller who started the season in great form with finishes of 8th,2nd and 4th which seemed to almost guarantee his card for the PGA tour but he has now slipped to 26th on the money list and needs a top finish. Whilst his overall finish last week wasn't great his stats were and a return to his home state of Texas could be just what he needs - after all he did win the Texas State Open on his professional debut last season. £20 ew 175/1 |
22 September 16.22
Just had a quick small bet in this weeks LPGA event - not sure that Catriona Matthew should be 55/1 at Skybet - after her British Open win she hasn't played that badly - a solid 11th last week and 3rd at the cut in the Canadian Open. Her overall top 5 strike rate on the LPGA is 12% and rises to 16% in California so even with the absence of any course form for her there is a bit of value in the 13/1 place part - £25 ew. |
21 September 21.29
Right then - where to start on the reasonings behind the bets - well I could say they both have surnames ending in Y and as long as they don't have the christian name Kenny then they have to be backed - my Grandad always backed horses who had double letters in their name who had finished 4th last time - weirdly I keep on looking at horse results and see them winning lol.
Anyway - Jerry Kelly - course form is superb though slightly old - he was 3rd and 4th here back in 02/04 and was desperately keen to get in when he knew he had a chance this year - he holed a 10 footer at the last at Cog Hill to earn his spot. His good finishes a few years ago were based on his GIR stats - he was 1st and 2nd so its good to know that he headed the GIR stats at Boston a few weeks ago. The East Lake course was revamped before last years Tour Championship so some things will seem unfamiliar, a bit of length was added and some bunkers changed but it is still a par 70 and Kelly seems to play his best golf on par 70 courses. The main important change is on the greens - they are now Miniverde Bermuda and the other PGA course which has these to counteract the hot deep south summers is Louisiana where Kelly won this year.
The last point leads me neatly on to Watney who also won on the Louisiana course back in 2007 and he seems to be a bit like a horse who has slipped to an attractive mark - only Watney has slipped to an attractive price. He hasn't been playing that badly of late and his GIR stats are usually amongst the better on tour. Perhaps he likes limited field events- he was 5th at the Mercedes and interestingly won the Nationwide Tour Championship in 2004 and although he has no course form on the face of it he is not without experience around East Lake. In 2001 he played the US Amateur round here and had a similar result to last years winner Villegas - he went a round further though Villegas lost to eventual winner Dickerson. So I do think he has drifted to a very backable price this week - earlier this season he was 25/1 for events. |
21 September 18.28
Second and only other bet for the Tour Championship is in the guise of Nick Watney and I have bet him in the following markets
£30 win only 90/1 Betfair
£60 top 4 14/1 Betfair
£60 win without Woods 45/1 Betfair
Will be back later this evening with the reasonings nehind both bets - if anyone is reading other than bookmakers lol! |
21 September 14.08
Another week starts and the main event is the Tour Championship on the PGA. I have bet Jerry Kelly in the following markets - reasons later
£25 ew 80/1 Outright
£25 win only 100/1 Betfair
£50 ew 40/1 without Woods
£60 win only 50/1 without Woods Betfair
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20 September 13.26
Looks like being a very frustrating week on the golf this week - Drummond never really getting in a blow after leading after round one and Lorenzo-Vera will probably come up a couple short.
Merritt has a very outside shot of a place in Idaho and I will invest £20 ew on Michael Clark at 66/1 1/5 3. Back in 2000 he was PGA Rookie of the year and since then has done the square root of diddly squat! In his last event he shot through the field on the final day to finish 3rd. With the market being framed by Blake Adams at 11/10 who whist consistent is a non winner and dropped 3 shots on the back nine last night the 66/1 could be a touch of value. |
16 September 14.50
Two more bets before they all tee off this week - firstly in the Albertsons Boise Open - recent Mexican winner Troy Merritt. It was probably a surprise when he won in Mexico two weeks ago but his college career always pointed to him being a winner at some point at this level - he won four on the bounce in college last year. He currently sits at number 25 on the money list so probably needs another top finish and it would be no great shock to see it happen here - he went to University at Boise and now lives here so will not be lacking support - at 100/1 is well worth £30 ew.
One thing I love about this job is researching peoples' lives and sometimes you come across some impressive stories and one which caught my eye was Bob Boyd in the European Seniors event. American Boyd won the Q school for the European Seniors Tour at the end of 2004 and won in Spain in his first season - then at the end of 2005 he was diagnosed with leukemia. In 2006 he had a bone marrow transplant but sadly the disease returned in May 2007, undeterred he underwent new treatment and is now back playing full time on the tour. This season he has lost in two play-offs but he says his fight against leukemia has made him stronger and able to cope with bad shots,bad rounds or even a play-off loss. One of those losses came at Bad Ragaz where he had done well last season and he was 3rd at Casa Serena last season so hopefully he can improve on last seasons performance as he did in Switzerland. I managed to get £40 ew at 50/1 and if he wins will donate £1000 to the cancer charity that helped my Mum recover from the disease a couple of years ago. |
15 September 20.55
It looks like being a series of small bets only this week and I have one more for Austria in the shape of Jean van de Velde. He has cut right back on his playing schedule and says he will only play these days on courses which will suit him so it is interesting to see him pitch up here. He has had a break and came back to play in Macau last week and was looking good for three rounds when he was in 3rd before fading on Sunday. I do think the course will suit him but because he hasn't achieved much in the last few years I will just venture a £15 win at 300/1 and £25 top 10 at 20/1 with Extrabet.
I will venture onto the Challenge Tour again which arrives in far flung Kazakhstan this week and I do think the books have underestimated the chances of Carl Suneson. It has to be said he has been largely out of form since finishing 6th in Kenya in April but he played well in Holland last week where he was 3rd going into the final round - finally coming 10th. He should have fond memories of the region having finished 2nd on his only other venture to the country in 2005 and despite getting longer in the tooth I do think 100/1 is too big so will have £25 ew. |
15 September 14.33
I have been looking at the smaller events for the week and might have a couple of bets on those tours but first of all a second bet for Austria in the shape of outsider Scott Drummond. I have mentioned before that this is his final year on tour with an exemption and he needs to do something to keep his card and he has improved in his last two outings. His second round 67 at Crans was his best round for a year and he improved on that with 15th in Germany last week and he fought back well having dropped three shots in the opening two holes of his third round
- if you look at this weeks field only four players finished ahead of him who are playing this week. As for course form - well he did OK here in 07 when in a huge slump (when isn't he in one!) and when Betfred opened 250/1 I couldn't resist a little £20 ew on him. |
14 September 20.03
I know I said the field is poor in Austria but there are still bets to be found and the first one is Michael Lorenzo-Vera. His recent form is actually pretty good compared to the rest of the field - top 20 in both Switzerland and Holland and last week he won on the Alps Tour in his homeland to keep his hand in. That win was on a very tough course - he finished +5 and he will probably find Fontana an easier challenge! That course in Paris is actually similar to this weeks in Austria in that it has a linksy feel much the same as the one where he won the Challenge Tour Championship back in 07. He won't find a problem with the altitude - a lot of his best ever finishes have been at altitude - especially in the year he headed the Challenge Tour rankings. At 100/1 I think he is well worth a bet and will have £30 ew. |
14 September 12.16
Close but no cigar for Anders Hansen as he lost in a playoff to James Kingston yesterday - as I was out all day I did leave a lay up of £250 at 6/4 so all was not lost! This weeks fare to be frank looks absolutely dire - the field in the Austrian Open wouldn't look out of place on the Challenge Tour although there are a couple that might be of interest at very big prices. As for the rest of whats on offer I guess I will concentrate on the Nationwide Tour. |
13 September 09.12
Slocum played poorly and now Woods is so far clear I see little point in looking further into this weeks PGA event - for the record I did chuck £70 on Na at 1000/1 when he got fairly close to the leaders and was nearly in the clubhouse. In Europe Hedblom didn't really make a move but I will invest in one more player on Betfair win only. Whilst looking at those close to the lead I compared the prices of those on -8 three strokes back and I can't fathom the price of one of the quartet. Wood and Molinari are around 18/1 - one is a non-winner and the other a serial loser, then we have Paul Lawrie around 30/1 which is probably about right - but why is Anders Hansen 40/1?? Admittedly he is a bit out of form but he has a habit of coming through late in the final round, won twice in South Africa earlier this season and has won the PGA Championship twice - the price of the four is all wrong in my opinion and I will have £50 at 40/1. |
12 September 11.59
One bet in the BMW Championship at the cut point in the without Woods market - Heath Slocum - not sure why he should be 80/1 with 1/5 4 having won the first play-off event £30 ew Skybet
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12 September 09.16
One quick bet having looked at the prices for the Mercedes-Benz - will have a small investment on the in form Peter Hedblom - £30 win 220/1 £40 top 5 18/1 on Betfair |
12 September 08.30
Back from holiday - don't ever believe anyone who said they had a relaxing week in the sun with a 6 and a 3 year old!! Whilst I was away a couple of good things happened - 250/1 pick Claverie more or less paid for my holiday by finishing 3rd in the Challenge Tour Spanish event and Andy Murray knocked himself out of the SPOTY running making the £100 on Ennis at 100/1 look very nice indeed. I will be looking through the golf for the rest of the weekend to see if there is anything worthwhile nibbling at. |
3 September 17.30
Last post from me for just over a week as I am off on holiday to spend some Yang! I will be back on the 11th so no bets before the off next week. Good luck with your bets this week - sadly the Omega ones have all started badly but I will leave you with one little bet for the WalMart First Tee Open - Steve Thomas should not be 400/1 available at Coral - he was 5th a while ago and was top 10 here last season and is worth £10 ew. |
2 September 14.54
I have just finished writing the August review for our sister site Horse Betting Index which you can read below.
After a sluggish start to the month we finally got going and ran out an impressive 20 winners with another 15 finishing 2nd. We had some big priced winners at 12/1,12/1 and 16/1 but the most impressive performance came with our 5 point maximum bets - 5 of which won at 6/4,9/4/7/4,13/8 and 5/2 and the only one that lost traded at 1.05!!
Who else can produce a strike rate like that on their best bets especially with no odd-on shots selected?
We ended up 60.3 points in profit on the month maintaining our impressive ROI of over 25% - somewhat better than the banks are offering at present! That equates to £6000 at £100 per point - even at £20 a point and with a maximum bet of £100 that’s a £1200 profit in one month - nearly 10x the monthly subscription fee.
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There is still some great flat racing in September - the final Classic at the Doncaster St Leger Festival along with the Ayr Gold Cup and Group One QE 11 at Ascot, not to mention several classic pointers to next year, with the Mill Reef, Champagne Stakes & Royal Lodge we are sure to see some top class 2 year old performances. Before the end of the flat season proper we also have the Autumn Double and Champion stakes at Newmarket plus the Arc weekend and then we move into the full All Weather Season and an exciting National Hunt Season.
Why not join us today and add to your betting profits - we only charge one fee for all codes of racing throughout the whole year - www.horsebettingindex.com |
2 September 11.34
Two more bets for the week - one in the Deutsche Bank and one in the Challenge Tour event in Spain. Firstly - the PGA tour - I do think that Woods will be hard to beat back on a course with which he is familiar - hence my lack of excitement for the event - well that combined with the fact that I seem to struggle with these playoff events. So just a small bet on a man who seems to be hitting form and has some pretty good rounds around the Boston track - Freddie Jacobson - just the £20 win on Betfair 160/1 and £30 top 6 20/1 Stan James - I like the top 6 as he does have a habit of finishing around the 5th/6th place mark!
A rare foray into the Challenge Tour which this week is in Spain - well strictly speaking it is on La Gomera a small island off of Tenerife in the Canaries and one player who should feel right at home is Luis Claverie who was born and lives on Tenerife. He played in this event last year when it was part of the Peugeot Tour and showed his local knowledge of the course by winning - he does seem to like island courses in this neck of the woods as I remember him finishing 2nd in the Azores Open back in 06. Trying to find evidence of what he has been up to has been a little tricky - he was banned from the tour at some point during 08 but was exonerated after he proved the steroids which turned up in his system were from a cream he was spreading on his bald patch!!! He did get in the Spanish Open this year and was 7th after round one before missing the cut - but on this course I will take a risk at 250/1 and have £20 ew. |
1 September 21.17
Sticking with the Argentinian theme for Crans we have my third pick in young Tano Goya. Born and resident in Cordoba he will have no problem with the altitude in Switzerland. As for the tricky nature of the course well his two wins in Europe have been on tricky courses - San Domenico and Porto Santo Golf. Interestingly the latter course where he won the Madeira Open was designed by Seve - the man who was given the task of changing the course at Crans a few years ago. Have had £40 top 6 22/1 and £40 on the win on Betfair at 180/1. |
1 September 14.49
I really don't know what to think about the Deutsche Bank this week and I haven't fared well so far in any of the Fedex playoff events - maybe they need a different mindset - anyway it doesn't start til Friday so still time for further thoughts.
I do have another fancy for the European Masters in the shape of Robert Dinwiddie - when the tour has a backdrop of mountains Dinwiddie seems to hit form. He was 7th here last season after a poor opening round of 74 - he was suffering from a bug and nearly pulled out but fought back with a pair of 64's. In 2007 on the Challenge Tour he played twice in the country and finished 3rd and 1st so there must be something in the air! He remains a great young talent who I think will break through soon and although he has struggled a bit with an injury sustained in Perth this season he has had a couple of top 10's and this is the best market to back him in - £60 top 10 25/2 Betfair + £30 on the win at 200/1 |
