31 October 16.30
Its been an odd week full of delays and golf from half way round the world, with it being half term and the kids at home I don't know if I am coming or going or what day of the week it is! Anyway - Eun-Hi Ji is in with a good chance in Korea and it would be nice to wake up to some good news on Sunday morning. I have looked and looked at the NEw York marathon and nothing jumps out at me - if you can get a few quid on Ryan Hall at Bwin at 12/1 then all well and good.
Very annoyed with our soul bet on HBI today - My Petra £400 win at 9/2 (BOG) swinging away in front trading odds on and Geraghty takes the wrong course - believe me the air was blue! Anyway we finished the month over 25 points up to make it 8 from 8 winning months |
28 October 15.16
Have just had a quick bet in the LPGA event this week in Korea the Hana Bank Kolon - basically I cannot see why reigning US Open champion Eun-Hi Ji is 80/1 for an event back in her homeland - £20 ew Skybet or Boyles |
28 October 00.35
By the way - if anyone happens to see any bookmaker with odds on Miss World I would be more than happy to know |
27 October 22.10
Keeping bets to a fairly low number this week - I think I have been guilty of having too many bets lately and I have also been working on something for next weeks HSBC Champions event.
In Singapore I will add Tetsuji Hiratsuka who has had a really solid year on the Japanese Tour including a win and is in fairly good nick and has played really well on similar courses in his homeland and I will take him to repeat his 7th place finish here in 2007 - £50 top 10 12/1 Betfair plus £45 225/1 average for the win with a view to trading.
As my record has been poor in the Fall Series events I will stick to one selection before the off with JJ Henry - he simply has a record of playing the same courses well year in year out and he has a 6th and a 3rd to his name here at Annandale. His form last week is better than his bare finishing position suggests as he was 6th on the all round rankings. At 80/1 I felt he was worth £40 ew and have had £85 at average 95 to trade. |
27 October 14.40
I have bet one for this weeks Challenge Tour Grand Final - please note that this event starts on Wednesday if you don't want to miss out. Stuart Manley dropped back to the Challenge Tour a few months ago after an indifferent season on the main tour and in his last two events has just started firing with a 9th and 4th in his last two outings. Coupled with his 2nd placed finish here on his only start back in 2007 and he is well worth £40 ew 33/1 in this reduced field. |
27 October 12.09
I really,really wanted to back Chapchai Nirat this week in Singapore - his course form is well known - leading by three into the final round last year but collapsed. He has endured a torrid time in Europe this season missing nearly every cut blaming it on poor putting (he can't read the greens) so last week he returned to Malaysia and the silly sod finished 2nd scuppering any chance of a decent quote and 66/1 is laughable especially as he chipped in for birdie on three of the last four holes - maybe his putting still hasn't returned!
So onto Plan B which in reality makes a lot more sense anyway when you look at the figures and I am going for a player who
Has played 25 times this season and hasn't missed a cut since May
Has won the last two co-sanctioned events he has played in Asia this year
Has won four events co-sanctioned by the Asian/European tours
Has a further six top five finishes in these events from 42 starts
Has won 11 times from 120 Asian starts
Has won twice at Saujana and also at New Kuta - designed by the same designer of Sentosa - this weeks venue
Has solid course form - 5th on his debut, and last year following a very poor opening round shot through the field to finish 13th
Thongchai Jaidee was 20/1 when he won the Ballantines and although this field is stronger I don't really understand the quotes for him. I managed to get £100 ew at 50/1 and also £30 at around 60 on Betfair and £30 top 6 at 10/1. |
26 October 13.53
Another poor week last week my personal loss amounting to £820 - I really should learn my lesson playing in tournaments such as the Fall Series events where anything can happen and just about always does, I could barely watch last night as Rickie Fowler nearly won the week after I was on at 1000/1. This week sees a whole host of events though I will be avoiding most like the proverbial plague. I have no interest in the "World Matchplay" a highly contrived event if you ask me and the Challenge and Champions Tour are limited field events. Singapore looks really interesting and I have spent the last 48 hours beavering away whilst hopefully I will have learnt my lesson on the PGA and concentrate on the one player that leaps out at me so far. |
24 October 21.22
Hmm things not going very well - Trahan has managed to make a right horlicks of the front nine again and blown himself totally out of contention. What is even more galling is Webb Simpson is 2nd who I seriously considered but anyway - another player I considered playing in his backyard with great course form was Pat Perez but was worried about his fitness - he is obviously fit and have just had £70 at 33/1 on Betfair.
In Spain whilst the players at the top are quality I will give David Drysdale a squeak and have had £20 ew at 100/1 1/5 3. |
23 October 15.13
Well yesterday DJ did exactly as he did last week - give the field a lead - he was +3 but four late birdies means he hasn't thrown his chance away altogether. In Europe - Drummond has just finished a great second round and the top ten finish is definitely on. I had a bit of a weird experience on Betfair whilst looking at Castello prices last night - I thought someone had made a mistake by putting up £2 at 370 for Tunnicliff - I took it and then he kept offering more - I ended up with £35 matched at around 340 which could be a nice trade! |
21 October 21.59
D.J Trahan is similar to Edfors this week - I don't really want to follow them over a cliff but after a poor first round last week Trahan played better than anyone else over the final 54 holes and his putting was a lot better despite agonisingly watching him miss at least six putts from under five feet.
Jeff Quinney is one of those bets where the win price is probably about right although interestingly his two profesional wins have been "home" related - his Nationwide win came in his home state of California whilst his Canadian tour win came in his adopted home of Scottsdale. He is undoubtedly at his best on the West Coast and after a poor start to the year where he had injury problems he has had two top four finishes in his last eight starts so the place part looks really big to me. |
21 October 21.20
I have looked and looked and looked at the Nationiwde Tour Championship and simply cannot find anyone worth backing so no more bets before the off this week.
In the Castello Masters I looked at all the players at the top and found very little to recommend any of them - Garcia is too short despite winning last year on his home course - he was really weak last weekend, Hansen simply never wins, Cabrera will be knackered, Kaymer returns from injury and won't be match fit, who knows what Allenby is doing here but he hasn't won in years, Wood is still shaking off a wrist injury and he and Willett haven't won, and Wall never sees things through. Edfors really catches my eye as a winner waiting to happen - at least he has won this year in Asia and his stats are looking better and better for the man who won three times in 2006.
Drummond is fighting really hard for his livelihood and has made five of his last six cuts including 12th last week so in a weaker field he does seem a pretty big price.
Lundberg is my one from leftfield this week and it revolves around his past performances - he seems to like "parkland" courses with trees about and has performed well again and again at courses he has done well before at, Bled - 2/2/8, Moscow 1/3/1, Karen 4/3 and Oitavos Dunes 10/4 so hopefully he can reproduce his 9th from last year. |
21 October 14.13
I am going to have a rare dabble on the Asian Tour for the Iskandar Johor Open and have plumped for rising young Thai star Kwanchai Tannin - the nephew of Prayad Marksaeng. He had an excellent amateur career and is finally beginning to fulfill his promise on the main tour. A few weeks ago he was 3rd at the cut of the Taiwan Masters but faded but then saw it through at the weekend of the Indian Open finishing 3rd. Unbeknown to most bookmakers he then won in Indonesia last week by seven shots so the 150/1 could be generous - £20 ew
I will be back tonight with my overall take on the main tour events for the week and maybe soemthing for the Nationwide Tour. |
20 October 18.36
One form left field for Spain this week in the shape of last years 9th place finisher Mikael Lundberg who has a habit of playing the same courses well from one year to another - £30 470 Betfair + Bet365 allowed me the princely sum of £7.50 on the top 10 at 33/1 so had £30 top 10 with ties 22/1 Extrabet. Will be back tomorrow with some more in depth reasonings - its been a long two days and the pub beckons! |
20 October 15.01
Going to go with Scott Drummond again this week - he is playing some really good golf at the moment in an attempt to keep his card - got £25 at average 260 on Betfair and gone for the top 10 angle - £50 at 11/1 including ties with Extrabet. |
20 October 12.22
Sorry but yet another quick post as Dave Tindall has gone for Trahan and my other pick who is Jeff Quinney - whilst a win is difficult to imagine the place part is huge - more on that later - have had £20 ew 125/1,£25 top 6 25/1 and £50 top 5 25/1. |
20 October 10.28
Another quick post as I am still busy working on things for this week but I have managed to get £80 matched at 55 on Betfair and £80 on a top 5 for last weeks pick DJ Trahan - he played well last week after round one and I for one will not be deserting him - the 45/1 is unlikely to last |
19 October 21.44
I've been thinking about living in the "land of blog" today and it does feel a bit weird - I know how many read my little ramblings but you could all be bookmakers as far as I know! Anyway I've been thinking about how I put results up on how I bet and decided I can't really put up all my bets- especially when trading on Betfair which is gradually increasing - so from now on I will give as much info as I can and simply record profit/loss per week and running total. I guess the reason I do this is because when I stopped giving reasons for my bets on Sporting Selections things went downhill so maybe this is just therapy - it certainly helps me by clarifying my thoughts - it makes me really concentrate on the job in hand. So please feel free to email me at info at sportsbettingindex.com if you enjoy my musings!
Quick summary - before last week I was £7750 up but lost £718 so down to £7032 |
19 October 16.04
A quick post for now - if you do have a bet in the Castello Masters this week make it Edfors - have managed to get £50 ew 45/1 and £50 ew 40/1 plus got £24 at 62 average on Betfair last night - I really do think he will be very popular this week |
18 October 23.04
What a frustrating day - sat here watching DJ Trahan blowing away the chance of a top 5 finish, Peter Hanson finishes 4th in Portugal when I was only on win only, also went out today and forgot about Tweddle in the World Champs - wins an amazing gold on the floor on the same day that Button limps over the line to win the Formula 1 title. Tweddle was matched at 7/1 on Betfair today for SPOTY but I didn't leave any lays up - still having Ennis and Tweddle on my side I am more than happy as I still don't think people rate Formula 1 despite the BBC going mental over it! |
17 October 23.53
Was lucky enough to lay off some of my Fowler bet at 22/1 - and I still think DJ has every chance so have carried on backing him at 90 - current position is + £18k DJ + £10k Rickie and - £50 the field. TBH the price on Scott Piercy is an absolute joke with his nervous disposition! |
17 October 11.10
Not the best of starts to the week and need a lot to happen today on moving day in all events - the only one that looks exciting is the £15 at 1000 I managed to get on Rickie Fowler but I certainly won't be laying back at the 80 on Betfair.
Looking at Portugal I have had £40 on Edfors at 80 - I hate to be a week early on a player and it looks like he has found his putting form. |
14 October 11.44
Have spent the morning finalising bets for the week and have added another couple for Portugal - firstly I have had a habit of my bets in Europe getting off to great starts and then fading so have added another £10 ew on Lima to be Round One leader at 100/1 - he has managed this three times before in 110 starts so with his current form and an early tee time it seems sensible.
I have pondered on whether to back Randhawa again all week - basically last week he played the course the same as he had done two years before with an appalling start and a good second round and I would kick myself if he went well this week without my money on so a slightly tempered investment of £20 win 220 and £30 top ten 20/1.
Onto the last event I have looked at for the week the Nationwide Tour Miccosukee Championship in Florida - there is a lot at stake in the last two events of this tour and no-one really leaps out at me apart from Tommy Gainey. He does seem to have found his form since dropping back to this level, the course should suit his big hitting style and he will certainly have fond memories of Florida where he nearly pulled off a miracle win on the PGA tour at the end of last season £25 ew 100/1 |
13 October 23.12
Have found another one for the JT Shriner who wasn't on my original list but has just caught my eye, having gone for Trahan I also noticed he won the same event on the Nationwide Tour as Turnesa did - the Miccosukee Championship which happens to be played this week as well so I had a closer look at D.A. Points wo won that event last year. He has had a solid year on the PGA tour with three top ten finishes including a 3rd at the Byron Nelson. On his last visit here in 2006 he led at the cut having shot a 2nd round 64 at Summerlin so the 200 on Betfair appeals - have had £25 and £40 on the top 10 at 15/1.
I also have a fancy for this weeks Champions Tour - I tipped Hal Sutton for the Administaff SBC last year on his debut on the this tour and to be honest he did well to finish 23rd as his next few starts showed how rusty he was after three years away from the game. He was a standing dish around Woodlands golf course on the PGA tour and he has proved over the the last few months with several top five finishes he can compete on this tour so £50 ew at 50/1 for me - would have loved the 100/1 I got last year but the books are not totally clueless lol |
13 October 14.40
I have added Leif Olson as one of my other bets for the PGA this week and just managed to nab £25 ew at 200/1 before the price started to be cut. The first thing I noticed about the last five winners of this weeks event since it has been cut to four rounds is that none of the winners have ever played Summerlin before which is really rather odd. Thats what led me to Olson as a selection although it must be said that before his third placed finish at Atunyote he wouldn't have been even close to the radar but the fact he's a big hitter also fits the bill of recent winners. In trying to find an answer to the question of why winners have no course form - maybe its because they come here having played tough courses all season and then come here for the first time and find it pretty easy??
Now onto Trahan - he has struggled this year mainly because of his poor putting but also down to the fact that he hasn't hit the ball that well over the last six months - but that changed at Atunyote last time where he improved with every round. The time of year is right - his Nationwide win and his win at Annandale both came in October. He also seems to be really at home in pro-ams over the last few years - his best result this year was at Pebble Beach when 6th, he was 2nd here on his last appearance two years ago and of course he won the Bob Hope - maybe its becasue the greens are set up easier for the amateurs. All that adds up to a very healthy interest in the available prices. |
13 October 12.43
Have added a few more bets but also yesterday was surprised to find some good early prices were still to be had on Betfair on the PGA event - which was a surprise! - will hopefully trade some of these in running
Portugal
Daniel Vancsik - £30 win 200/1 £30 top 5 28/1 Extrabet
Steve Webster - £15 win 75 Betfair
Peter Hanson £30 win 70 Betfair
JT Shriner
Cameron Beckman - £25 win 400 Betfair
Harrison Frazar - £30 win 200 Betfair
Rickie Fowler - £15 win 1000 Betfair |
13 October 10.33
Main bet for me this week is on the JT Shriner.... event on the PGA and is on DJ Trahan - have had £100 win 130 average Betfair and £35 22/1 top 5 - more on this one later but if you can get on at Bluesquare then the 125/1 is well worth taking. In Portugal have added £50 win Steve Webster at Extrabets' 66/1 and £30 win only Peter Hanson 70 on Betfair. |
12 October 19.01
First bet for this weeks European event in Portugal this week goes to Lima who has been in the form of his life on the Challenge Tour in recent months and was really surprised to see him at 3 figures plus this week although it is a stronger field than is often associated with the event. His current form reads 4/16/4/57/1/2 which is incredibly consistent and he played well here two years ago £30 ew 150/1 and £40 average 155 on Betfair for trading |
12 October 11.47
Well,well,well - somehow Lockerbie managed to hold onto a top 10 finish - some poor play by golfers around him - especially on the par 5 last saw him tied for 10th - and therein lies the beauty of using these specials where ties are paid in full - it can save you a fortune! This week looks very interesting so back with some picks over the next 48 hours - in the meantime I have just compiled the September review for Horse Betting Index. Cheers for now
Another month done and dusted and an impressive seventh winning month in a row - not many tipping services can give you that degree of consistency. We won’t deny that things were tough but we hung in there, didn’t change our staking or method of selection and walked away with a profit of just over 10 points, and this has kept us at the top of the 3,6 and 12 month proofing tables at Racing Proofing
The main difference to previous months was simple - we just lacked a few winners with 13 - past numbers were 20,20 and 17 so we were about 4 winners short of having a winning month of 50 points. Undoubtedly the highlight of the month was the tipping of Colorus at 28/1 who eventually went off at 8/1 and won comfortably. The lowlight was the performance of the 5 pointers - usually we have a very high strike rate but this month all 4 lost and we were particularly gutted with Jimmy Styles who won the Ayr Gold Cup the week after we had a 5 point bet on him.
We will have months like this but we held our nerve and fought back well to produce a profit. The good thing about having a bit of a losing run is that we eventually got some feedback from customers - when winning week in week out we don’t seem to get many emails (apart from those saying Wow!) but we have had several with suggestions of how we can improve the way we send tips etc. We always try to send bets using BOG bookmakers and fortunately more and more are joining the bandwagon, this now makes it easier for us to tip horses where people can get on at the prices we recommend. We have listened to all suggestions and have changed a few things to make our service better.
This time of the season is notoriously difficult but being sensible and patient we will continue to produce a profit and proved it on the 1st October with a huge winning day - but more of that next month!
All the best
The HBI team. |
11 October 15.39
Looks like being one of those weeks to forget as I am convinced Lockerbie will finish just shy of the top 10 in Madrid - probably 11th!! Dodged the bullet in India with Bhullar but the other one I nearly backed Lahiri was 3rd at 80/1 and in the Nationwide several I considered are up there - serves me right for concentrating on Europe! Anway - I did have a look at the prices for the Chattanooga and have gone for Tommy Gainey at 100/1 ew 1/5 3 £20 ew. He has improved with every round despite some iffy putting but yesterday that matched his DA and GIR as he shot 65 and even then took 28 putts, worth a small risk as he is only 2 shots out of a place. |
10 October 10.03
Well in the last 12 hours I have been guilty of a lack of discipline - it happens occasionally and I hate it when it happens but the end result might turn out OK with a bit of trading, basically I have added the following
Gregory Bourdy £25 80
Peter Lawrie £25 100
Cabrera-Bello £45 80
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9 October 10.28
With Garcia up near the top I have added a few in running plays with Betfair - basically I wouldn't trust him to sit the right way on a lavatory so there are some nice prices created for those a bit further down.
Randhawa - another £15 at 450 - seems to be playing the event as he did two years ago
Alvaro Salto £15 1000 - won on the course last year
Shane Lowry £10 290 - would be miffed if he won a week late!
Luis Claverie £15 410 - has to make the most of his few opportunities
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8 October 15.11
Looks like I dodged a bullet in India as Bhullar played poorly in round one with a +1 - phew! Currently trying to find the similarity between Andre Stolz,Was Short,Troy Matteson,George McNeill and Marc Turnesa - apart from the fact they have all won Summerlin the last five years I cannot fathom out a link!! |
7 October 16.11
I forgot to explain why I have backed Adam Mitchell for this weeks Nationwide event - well basically he is from Chattanooga so will have plenty of home support in what is his first professional event. He took the decision to turn pro having helped the US win the Walker Cup a few weeks ago and has concluded what was a very good amateur career and it will be interesting to see if he can match Reifers feat in this event - he had a similar amateur career and won this on his pro tour debut. He has played the course numerous times including playing this event last year as an amateur when he comfortably made the cut.
I am going to have a small dabble on someone in the Challenge Tour Toulouse event - Fred Andersson Hed - he often holds his form well when he hits it and was 4th last week,he led this event at the cut on his only appearance in 06 before fading and funnily enough his only win came this week in France back in 2000 - £20 ew 5/1 |
7 October 12.22
Still looking around for bets but not that inspired - really wanted to back Bhullar in the Indian Open but not at 12/1 - if any brave bookmaker would like to lay me £200 ew at 20/1 then please get in touch lol. Talking about the Indian Open leads me neatly onto Randhawa and why I have picked him - I guess its more a case this week of where he isn't playing - the Indian Open takes part on the DLF - his home course and its the first time he has missed the event in five years and he has also won it three times - so it made me look closely as to why he has pitched up in Spain. Basically it is all to do with his commitment to the European Tour and his wish to keep his card - he is dangerously close to 115th in the money list. He will have fond memories of the course - after an opening round of 75 he shot through the field to finish 2nd in 07 and headed the stats for the week. His form actually isn't that bad at the moment - with a round to go he was 8th in Japan but got blown away by the wind on the Sunday and he was 4th after round one at the Dunhill last week . With £100 at 130 I will have a little to play with if he gets close.
I have also done Mads Vibe-Hastrup and have added another £20 at 510 to go with my earlier £20. I think I have only tipped him once and that was when he won and looking back that was 07 so his two year exemption expires this season and he needs to do something quick to keep his card. In Austria he actually drove the ball and putted quite well and where better to recapture some form in the city that he won exactly two years ago and a course where he finished 4th on the Challenge Tour the year before.
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7 October 09.55
It is indeed a pretty quiet week - have had a few more bets which I have listed below and will be back with my reasonings a bit later
Madrid
Jyoti Randhawa £100 win 130 Betfair,£10 top 6 22/1,£40 top 5 21/1
Mads Vibe Hastrup £20 win 500 & £10 top 5 55 Betfair
Graeme Storm managed to get £25 70 on Betfair
Chattanooga Classic
Adam Mitchell - after a bit of shopping got £5 ew 400/1,£2.50 ew 300/1 & £17.50 ew 250/1 !! |
6 October 15.00
First bet for me in Madrid comes in the rather large form of Gary Lockerbie who is coming off a fine top 10 in the Dunhill Links to add to the 4th he got in the Wales Open earlier this season. Those two finishes have lofted him to 109th in the money list and every chance to keep his card for next season. On the Challenge Tour in 06 and 08 he seemed to play his best golf at this time of the year and on this course was 5th on that tour heading into the final round before fading to 12th on the Sunday - he is a better player now and secured his maiden Challenge Tour win last season. I do think 200/1 is a tad big and have had £20 ew + £40 top 10 18/1 with Extrabet including ties. |
5 October 16.43
Well Dysons win turned a poor week into a nice one though I did trade a bit more back today - £500 at 1.65 costing me £325 to add to yesterdays £900 but when you are a poor run it is nice to lock in a bit of a profit- especially after Steele finished 8th last night. This week looks like being pretty quiet - will be back tomorrow if anything catches my eye! |
4 October 13.36
I have been waiting for Extrabet to get over their power cut this morning but I still seem to be struggling to make a bet so have taken the 75 on Betfair instead of the 80 for Gronberg in the Turning Stone. He has often followed up really low rounds with another - he used to in Europe and has done it twice on the Nationwide Tour this season when 2nd and 1st. If his putter continues to be hot on Sunday he could well challenge for the lead and there are some really dodgy players up there - it would be a good way of celebrating becoming a Dad for the third time £50 win with a view to trade a bit.
Decided to trade back a bit of my Dyson bet in the Dunhill - thought at 9/2 with 27 holes to go with a load of good players marching up the leaderboard it would be a good time to secure a profit on that bet - £200 was readily matched as he made eagle. |
4 October 10.33
It's on weeks like this that I think harder about my own advice - concentrate on the Majors and WGC events and where I have snippets of info that are not in the public domain - but then what would I do the rest of the time!!! Still got some chances in the Dunhill - and the nice thing is with a Monday finish I will be able to watch with the kids at school! Steele and Bohn still have place chances and I will probably go for another bet in the Turning Stone - back later. |
