30 November 19.12
Right - welcome to the new me! - rather stupidly I have three qualifiers under my new betting rules for the Australian Open - so much for cutting down though this will definitely be the exception to the rule - some weeks will be no picks at all. Anyway the three fro Aus and the bets I have struck are below - luckily some nice Aussie books obliged - will tell you more tomorrow
Andrew Dodt AU$60 ew 125/1
Scott Arnold AU$75 ew 200/1
Rohan Blizard £10 ew 400/1
|
29 November 21.42
Well the skiing season didn't get off to too bad a start with Heel finishing 2nd in the Downhill to return the place part and I will continue to look at the Downhill and Super G for the rest of the season but will avoid the Giant Slalom and Slalom as I have never really got to grips with it.
Onto a pretty important statement - over the last few weeks I have been looking at my betting results for the last few years and it really has become apparent I have lost my edge on the run of the mill golf events we have week in week out - most of the knowledge you need is now freely available and pricing mistakes are very rare these days - so it really does make sense to knock these on the head. The area I still do well is finding the bits of info on things like course form which are not in the public domain - bets like Claverie the other month who placed at 250/1. I do well on the Majors and will carry on looking at these closely as the bets often involve placing antepost bets on golfers as they come into form approaching these events.
A large amount of my profits has come from certain golf events and from things like SPOTY or Miss World/Universe so it makes sense to concentrate on these and Skiing rather than chucking money away on golf events week in week out where the prices are normally - to be honest - right!
Funnily enough this week actually looks rather good for using some "secret" information so stay tuned golf fans!!! |
26 November 13.13
The Skiing season starts in earnest tomorrow in Lake Louise and this year I should have the time to study and come up with a few bets - the first of which can be seen below - but first a few thoughts on the Q school selections
Haeggman - will get a few starts anyway due to his money list position and status as a past champion in certain events and was 5th here last year
Macauly - promising young player who just lost his card this season having gained it when 20th last season - opened with a 65 at Catalunya in the Spanish Open so clearly likes the venue,
Bebb - already has a card via the Challenge Tour rankings and is only here to improve it - has been 9th and 13th in recent Q schools so can handle the format
Phadungsil - very impressed with him here last year when after a shocking opening round he improved all the way up to 12th - now a multiple winner he Asia the youngster should go well - he was 5th at the cut in Hong Kong before fading
Wagner - just a hunch the young Argentine will go well - winner twice in Latin America in the past year and will be a very good player one day.
Onto Lake Louise - yesterdays practice run was cancelled so we only have the first one to go on and I find it a surprise to see Werner Heels price lengthen for the Downhill - he was DQ'd in practice but was lying second through the final checkpoint until something went wrong - I have placed £20 win 25/1 and £40 podium 13/2 with Hills and also taken the 13/1 for the Super G £30 13/1 |
26 November 13.44
I have been looking hard at the final of the European Qualifying School over the last few days and below are the bets I have placed so far
Haeggman £25 ew 80/1
Macauly £15 ew 80/1, £15 ew 70/1
Bebb £10 ew 125/1
Phadungsil £20 ew 66/1
Wagner £10 ew 200/1 |
24 November 21.33
A few thoughts about this week - the US team in China really does remind me of the team of Weekley and Slocum two years ago that I tipped at 20/1 and luckily laid at 1.1 as they got pipped at the finish. People are saying that Watney is way down the pecking order for US players but he is still a big talent and better than a lot of players on show and did really well in the WGC in China a couple of weeks ago. The chosen representative gets to pick his playing partner and Watney went for Merrick with whom he is close buddies and they played a lot of college golf together. Whilst Merrick hasn't had what I would call a great season he seems to rise to the occasion with most of his best form shown in Majors - 10th PGA Championship,6th Masters and last year he was 6th at the US Open. One other postive thing to take from their pairing is that they both play the same ball.
In Japan I have gone for Hidemichi Tanaka who was a top player a few years ago with numerous top finishes on the PGA tour until a serious back injury wrecked his career and in the end he took 18 months out of the game. He has struggled this season but the last few weeks he has played quite well especially in his short game and is worth a stab at a big price - still surprised to see the price I took beaten by the Tote at 150/1! |
24 November 09.52
Another quickie - just to point out a player worth backing in the New South Wales Open - Steven Jones £20 ew Skybet 100/1 - should probably be closer to the 40/1 quoted by the Aussie books. Back later today with the reasons behind this weeks three bets while I sit and wait for books to price up the Euro Q school. |
23 November 16.57
A quick post - I really do thinks the books have underestimated the chances of the US in this weeks Omega World Cup - I managed to get £50 ew 18/1, £50 ew 16/1 and £30 17/1 on Betfair.
In the Casio World Open I have had £15 ew Tanaka 125/1 and £15 ew without young Ryo at 110/1 |
21 November 15.15
Note to self - give up backing players who simply cannot putt in the hope of catching them on the rare occasion they actually do - ie Villegas! Thankfully laid back the extra £100 I had on Betfair at 14/1 but he was awful the last two days, I guess Goosen still has a chance of a place with a good final round - something he is more likely to achieve these days when the win is out of the question!
Looking ahead a bit and it always pays to do so - Robert Karlsson has a very good chance of winning in Japan which could be the signal that he is finally over his eye problems - in two weeks times he plays the Nedbank Challenge where he was 3rd last season albeit miles behind Stanson. If he is back to form his price will contract massively so I have had £30 ew 20/1 and £40 win only on Betfair at 21. |
19 November 12.51
I wasn't going to bother with the LPGA Tour Championship - the only player I fancied was local girl Stacy Lewis and 80/1 was borderline for me - however Extrabets 125/1 is well worth taking - especially with the 20/1 top 5 including ties - £20 and £30 for me.
Nice to see Camilo off to a fine start in Dubai at -6 - he hit every fairway and every green but took 30 putts so I guess I called it about right!
|
18 November 10.17
I have spent what seems like days trawling through the Q school markets put up by Skybet but that man John Rhodes is tough to beat and add in the other factor that players simply don't have to win and it is difficult to find a bet. However I have come up with one in Europe and one in the US - firstly at Costa Ballena I have had £20 ew on Adrien Bernadet at 80/1 who was second at this venue 2 years ago and was 6th at Arcos last year and could well be inspired by the exploits of his fellow French golfers at the weekend. In the US I have gone for Scot Russell Knox who plays at Hombre - he is based in Florida where he went to University, he has finished 3rd on the Hooters Tour money list this season winning twice and won his Stage 1 qualifier in Florida quite comfortably - £20 ew 50/1 |
17 November 19.42
A few thoughts behind this weeks Dubai selections - basically with the course the only thing I can go on is reading articles about it,knowing a bit about the designer - Greg Norman and looking at pictures. Basically the overall impression I get is that a big lump of either Florida or Georgia has been dug up and dumped in the middle of the desert in Dubai. The Earth Course has aspects of typical Floridian courses - hints of Sawgrass,hints of Augusta National and big hints of Sugarloaf which is no great surprise as Norman designed the latter. Hence I have gone for players who are more based in the US - it will play very differently to courses a lot of these players have been used to playing recently on the European mainland and also I think those who have been fighting for the Race to Dubai title will be pretty knackered. Goosen plays most of his best golf in Florida when in the US - his last win came there back in March and whilst he hasn't won since he has been pretty consistent and gets into contention most weeks - hence the stake on the exchanges to trade with as well as the e/w money, although I don't think regional form will be that relevant he has played well on his rare forays including a win in Qatar.
Villegas first came to my attention because he has played twice at Normans' Sugarloaf course and finished 3rd on both occasions and he also has a pretty good record in Florida where he played his college golf. His form this year has admittedly not been great but he was 8th at the BMW before having a two month break. When he returned at the HSBC his putter was cold but his ball striking was superb - and from reports about the course it really should suit his big hitting style. |
16 November 16.00
Well it's not often I am more or less done and dusted for the week by Monday afternoon but research was done last week and my price expectations were matched on my two selections so here goes
Goosen £75 ew 28/1 + £80 to trade at just over 30
Villegas £50 ew 50/1 + £120 to trade at just over 50
Back with thoughts later - off to look at the European Q school kindly priced up by Skybet - oh and DA Points was very frustrating last night - charging thorugh the field he ended up 7th Grrrrrr. |
15 November 09.56
A quick word about Miss World - this is one market when you really have to stay ahead of the game and know who is going to be popular and the next big "mover" could well be Miss Barbados and whilst I would prefer more than 3 places I still have to take the 80/1 for £40 each way available at Coral and Ladbrokes.
A disappoining effort on the golf although Carl Pettersson is now in contention and is strong when in a leading position. |
14 November 19.34
Forgot to say - had £40 ew Jimenez at the 28/1 and also had a good day on HBI with us bagging the wiiner of the Paddy Power - we advised customers to take the 9/1 a few days ago with a sizeable £300 ew - and as an added bonus he is in my Ten to Follow list! |
14 November 18.42
Had a bit of a nightmare the last day as my laptop was disabled and whilst I have an ancient one as a back up its a right royal pain in the arse - which leads me neatly onto Charl Schwartzel. Thankfully I traded the £300 stake back at 6/1 last night - also in Hong Kong I added Jimenez at Skybets 28/1 as they still go 1/5 3 - as he has won here twice before and last year closed with a 62. In the Childrens Miracle I added Carl Pettersson - £50 65 on Betfair as it seemed a big price and he fitted the mould of a previous Florida winner. I also added Cameron Beckman as this is his time of year - £20 ew 100/1 and £15 win 120 Betfair.
Right - time to catch up on other work. |
11 November 20.45
Time for a few thoughts on the last event on the PGA tour the Childrens Miracle Classic - another season over and done - hope I can finish it off with a winner. When looking at the last 3 years results one thing became clear to me - Love,Ames and Durant had all won before - indeed they had all won in Florida before. I really like the look of Marc Calvavecchia this week who has superb course form with 3 top 10's and he doesn't really have to worry about his card as he is 50 next year. He hasn't played that bad this season with a 4th in the pro-am at Pebble Beach and an 8th at Glen Abbey in Canada where he has often done well before so it wouldn't surprise me if he went well again at Magnolia.
My other pick DA Points sort of follows the above principle in that he won in Florida last season albeit on the Nationiwde Tour. He lives just up the road so can sleep in his own bed and seems to be refinding a bit of form. He admitted he struggled after his 3rd at the Byron Nelson as he had secured his card and really didn't know where to set his goals which always simply involved keeping his card. |
11 November 13.24
Right then - moving swiftly on the Australian Masters where Tiger dominates the market and tbh I wouldn't really want to take him on despite a very weak finish in China last week. I was lucky enough to get some money down on Bowditch at 150 but I don't think he has the nerve to actually win an event like this and also got a bit matched on Baddeley who of course won here in 06 and also won this event on the sandbelt course of Huntingdale in 2007. My outsider with a squeak is Adam Bland who has had a fairly solid year on the Nationwide Tour including a runner-up slot in Mexico where he felt at home having won there on the Canadian Tour. Hopefully he will feel right at home returning back to Australia where his form in recent years has been pretty good - he was 4th at the Moonah Links on his last journey home and has been 11th at the Aus Open,6th at the Aus PGA and 10th in the Aus Masters and I do think 150/1 without Woods is a little on the big side. Forgot to add - Bland should have some good memories of Kingston Heath as it was here 3 years he qualified for the Open. |
11 November 11.04
Where to start on a busy week! - In Hong Kong I have probably had one of my biggest plays of the year on a "short" priced player in Charl Schwartzel and have backed him to win around £10k and there are several reasons why. When looking at the event there is a distinctive Spanish feel to it with the past winners and also players doing well on this course and in Spain and if you look at the Fanling course it is reminiscent of tree lined Spanish courses. Charl has a good record in Spain with two victories - maybe he has fond memories of the place having secured his tour card there at the tender age of 18. That leads me neatly on to Hong Kong - this is where he made his pro debut and whilst he missed the cut he did come back two years later and finished 8th - there are a few examples of players coming back in the future and winning on courses where they first appeared (Casey - Belfry,Warren - Gleneagles,Henry - River Highlands) so perhaps Schwartzel can add to the list. He also comes here in very good form with a 5th in Singapore last time out - I expect a really good week from him.
Also in Hong Kong I have sided with youngster Rhys Davies and as I said on Monday - he reminds me somewhat of Simon Dyson who was "sent" to Asia to learn his trade and won in Hong Kong although Davies came back to Europe to gain his card via the Challenge Tour and did so with ease with a couple of wins - in comparison Rory is a joke of a price in my opinion.
I have just added Juvic Pagunsan - I really wanted to back him in a top Asian category but none arrived so went for top 10 £50 at 12/1 and the win on Betfair £15 170. He just seems to be finding the form that saw him finish 2nd here 3 years ago. |
10 November 19.55
I have a quick five minutes spare to put up a few more bets - in the Childrens Miracle local resident DA Points - £25 ew 100/1 and £35 win 135. In Australia I was lucky to get £40 matched at 150 on Bowditch (although I can't see him beating Tiger it might be tradeable) and also £45 Badds at 35/1 last week. I have just added Adam Bland £25 ew without Tiger 150/1 and £15 165 on Betfair.
I was hoping someone was going to put up a top Asian market in Hong Kong but I haven't seen one which is annoying - wanted to avoid betting against Schwartzel with an Asian player and all I have is a ROW market. |
10 November 14.55
Only got time for a couple of lines - will be back later with a few more bets and some thoughts behind them - I finally got all I wanted on a player for Hong Kong - a fairly lumpy bet for me on Charl Schwartzel - £300 at an average 34/1 - not bothered with the place but may trade a little bit back in running.
In the Childrens Miracle there is an interesting stat which points me to Mark Calcavecchia and have had £40 win 160 Betfair + £30 top 6 22/1 and £30 top 10 with ties 9/1. |
10 November 10.27
I have modified the Davies bet slightly as Coral have opened at 125/1 so had £20 ew and managed to lay £25 on Betfair at 110 - back this afternoon with further thoughts |
9 November 20.27
Had a couple of days off and come back refreshed and ready to go for what could be a busy week - my main bet comes in Hong Kong but I am still waiting to be matched to the full amount so more of him tomorrow. However I do think one player is well worth backing at this stage - the talented young Rhys Davies has plenty of experience in Asia and odds of 110/1 are too big - have had £25 ew and another £50 on betfair at 125. He reminds me somewhat of Simon Dyson who was "sent" to Asia to learn his trade and won in Hong Kong although Davies came back to Europe to gain his card via the Challenge Tour and did so with ease with a couple of wins - in comparison Rory is a joke of a price in my opinion. |
6 November 14.08
Well it didn't take me long to find out how my bet in the Mizuno Open fared overnight as she is virtually last and although things have improved slightly in China I cannot see Ishikawa getting close enough to challenge for me to lay some of the £21k off. I have resolved to do better for next week and have already spent 30 hours working on Hong Kong whilst with Tiger playing the Aussie Masters that event might be worth swerving |
5 November 17.45
Not the best start to a Thursday morning I have ever had - scrolling from the bottom up on the Euro scorecard it didn't take me long to find all my players - still a long way to go and I do think the big layer on Betfair has been more than generous on his re-pricing so have added Dougherty £50 150/1 and Lin £40 100/1. |
4 November 13.45
I am going to have an investment in the co-sanctioned ladies event in Japan this week - the Mizuno Classic in the form of Chie Arimura. She currently lies 3rd on the Japanese money list with four victories and five runner-up slots. She played poorly in the event last year when in a bit of a slump but was 5th the year before and has improved massively this season and I just cannot see why she is bigger than 50/1 so have had £25 ew at 80/1.
My selections for the HSBC are complete - I did have a bit on Yang on Sunday night but decided not to add to this as reading his Twitter posts it would appear he is absolutely knackered. So my Betfair book looks like this with £410 invested
| Sean OHair |
61.84 |
£50.34 |
£3,062.86 |
|
| Ryo Ishikawa |
107.75 |
£200.00 |
£21,349.80 |
|
| Yong-Eun Yang |
70.48 |
£49.29 |
£3,424.66 |
|
| Simon Dyson |
79.87 |
£45.37 |
£3,578.33 |
|
| Nathan Green |
355.66 |
£65.00 |
£23,052.80 |
Plus
£40 ew Yuta Ikeda 500/1
£40 ew Simon Dyson 80/1
£25 top 5 Nathan Green 40/1
I forgot to mention last weeks return - a nice return no thanks to the golf! +£1103 |
3 November 17.40
Sometimes you get a feeling that a player is going to go well in an event and I just have that feeling about Nathan Green this week. There is a small amount of evidence to support the feeling - his best events in the last couple of years were at the PGA National and Glen Abbey - both courses where Yang has done very well. He has played at Sheshan once before back in 2007 when he was 10th going into the final round so he can play the course. Anyway just a hunch which is unusual for me - £25 top 5 40/1 and £65 win 355 Betfair with a view to trading.
Just a quickie on Miss World - made me laugh that Bet365 and Ladbrokes both appeared with markets today - Centrebet are still 16/1 Miss France |
2 November 22.32
A quick explanation as to why I have gone for Miss France for Miss World - basically she was in Miss Universe a couple of months ago and was expected to do really well as she was one of the favourites - however due to some rather iffy decisions (according to experts!) she was robbed of the title and in the end only finished 6th. I really don't see why she should be such a big price especially when you also consider the same Miss South Africa was in Miss Universe and she was 7th and is only 8/1 for this. |
2 November 20.41
I was very surprised to see people putting prices up last night and this morning on the HSBC on what was plainly the wrong field - one of the reasons I took 80 Dyson but I also had £50 at 60/1 Sean O'Hair and have continued lumping on young Ryo Ishikawa all day and am now up to £200 at a shade under 110/1. Layers seem to have short memories over players from the Japanese Tour in this event as Yang won it (happy memories!) and between them Ishikawa and Yuta Ikeda have won eight times this season in Japan. Getting over 100/1 on Ryo is simply massive and will use it to trade and Ladbrokes were very kind by opening at 500/1 Ikeda and gave me a very generous £40 ew. |
2 November 15.57
Looking at the early prices coming out for this weeks HSBC and Dyson looks too big at 80/1 - he has stepped up to another level in the last 12 months and Asia was where he honed his skills £40 ew 80/1 + £40 win on Betfair |
2 November 14.14
Quick post re Miss World - although only a few books up I think Chloe Mortaud the French candidate is overpriced in double figures - have managed to get £75 win at an average 33/1 and £10 top 4 10/1,£30 top 5 4/1 over the last week. Will explain more later. |
1 November 18.04
I should probably sit back and rest for the day with no PGA golf on tonight but well a Sunday night wouldn't be complete without a golfer on hand to shout at so I have looked at the revised betting for the Seniors Charles Schwab. I can't see Cook being caught but there is betting available without him and McNulty catches my eye - in 4 of the last 5 years he has shot 66/68/67/67 to finish 1/4/4/5 here at Sonoma so odds of 80/1 1/4 3 places could prove to be pretty generous. |
1 November 16.55
Wow - well done Meb - not often you get an 100/1 winner of a marathon - if only Stan James had let me have the bet I wanted lol Hope some of you got a few quid on. |
1 November 11.23
Well no good news on the golf front this morning though I am looking forward to the HSBC from China this week - its been a happy hunting ground for me over the years. I have looked again at the NY marathon and decided to have a small bet on Meb Keflezighi - well it had to be small due to limits! - he does the know the course as well as anyone and has returned from injury this year to record quite a few personal bests and he could well emulate his 2nd and 3rd of 04 and 05 considering its a field that lacks strength in depth. Allowed £5 ew 100/1 and £10 win 100/1 |
