31 March 22.42
One last round one bet having looked at the tee times for the Nabisco - the youngster Alexis Thompson is first to tee off and I will have a token £10 ew at 55/1 that she causes a stir in round one. If I did have to have an outriht bet in this weeks Houston Open it would probably be DA Points at 200 on betfair but he did let me down badly last time I talked him up!! |
31 March 10.28
I noticed this morning that Aussie Sportingbet also do round one betting though sadly win only but added a few more small bets
Adam Scott £10 80/1
DA Points £5 100/1
Briny Baird £5 140/1
Vaughan Taylor £5 140/1
Johnson Wagner £5 140/1 |
30 March 21.28
Moving on to round one of the Shell Houston Open and I have had a few small bets - luckily they are always likely to be small as that is all I am likely to get on!!!
Adam Scott £5 ew 60/1, £9 ew 55/1, £10 ew 50/1
DA Points £12 ew 80/1
Briny Baird £14 ew 125/1
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30 March 15.11
First bet of the new strategy of round one leader markets is in this weeks Ladies first Major the Kraft Nabisco - Karen Stupples £25 ew 100/1 best prices here |
29 March 22.00
I just added up where I stand on the Masters market with bets at bookmakers and on Betfair and they are as follows - no doubt a couple more will be added!
All the best Masters Prices can be found here
Betfair Win Market
O'Hair +£7770
Yang +£1760
Slocum +£29460
Field -£110
Betfair without Woods
O'Hair +£6410
Singh +£1890
Yang +£2100
Slocum +£7400
Field -£180
Bookmakers
Yang £40 ew 150/1
Slocum £10 ew 400/1
Barnes £10 ew 500/1
Couples £20 top 5 30/1 |
29 March 21.10
A bit gutted about the SAIL Open starting in just over five hours as only the one book has priced up as no others cottoned on early enough that it starts early - sadly the one book that priced up is Stan James who allowed me the princely sum of £5 ew on Rashid Khan at 250/1 |
29 March 11.19
Over the last 4 or 5 days I have had quite a long time lying around thinking about things (due to illness) as you might have gathered from my rant below on Saturday!! Well I hinted at a change earlier in the year - did I stick to it - No! should I have - Yes! I simply cannot see a way of making betting pay on the golf events week in week out on the outright side although this doesn't seem to be the case for the Majors - probably because most of those bets are Antepost. The one 200/1 winner I had this year was a case of a little extra knowledge which makes sense when you think about it and how often am I likely to find a bit of extra knowledge about a main PGA or European event - rarely. So here's the deal - betting on Majors will continue - after all they are the highlight of the year,betting on the smaller tournaments will carry on if an edge is found and with the main tour events I will dabbling on round one leader markets only.
Will be back later with maybe one for the SAIL Open and an update of where bets stand for the Masters - I did add £10 ew Ricky Barnes 500/1 last night. |
27 March 16.10
Sometimes I really do wish I would listen to myself and heed my own advice - now then what did I say - stick to the smaller events (and the four Majors) where I might have some sneaky knowldege - play on the Nationwide Tour where I have had a lot of success - have I done so? have I b******s!! Who was the one winner I have had this season - Vanegas playing his home course having been 4th the year before and 200/1 - sometimes I really am a mug.
Self deprecating over - I did back Lamely at 330 last night for £20 - probably shouldn't have bothered if you read what I have written above. On the Masters front I have added a small bet of £20 on Couples getting a top 5 at 30/1 (Expekt) - he is playing superb golf this year on both tours and it wasn't that long ago he was 3rd at Augusta.
I really must avoid the Houston Open next week - will have a look at the Sail Open and Kraft Nabisco and probably give the betting bank a rest.
One last thing - at least Aaron Watkins is going well in Louisiana!! |
26 March 18.14
Most of the success I have had in the Majors is betting antepost on the run up to each one and I have added another play for the Masters - Heath Slocum £10 ew 400/1 Skybet, £50 635 average and £30 without Woods 250. |
26 March 12.17
I am quite looking forward to the next few weeks - hardly any golf - no Seniors,Nationwide and In Europe only Madeira the same week as the Masters leaving just Houston next week. To be honest I could do with a break as I just seem to be tearing my hair out and am just about level for the year - really need a good Masters and hope I can have another good Major. I still don't get why Erics Charm is such a big price for the Grand National!! |
25 March 09.34
Well time has run away with me this week with no time to post detailed reasons etc and all I can do is leave you with the last two remaining bets for the week in the Nationwide Chitimachi Louisiana Open - Aaron Watkins £30 ew 60/1 and Scott Brown £10 ew 200/1 and £5 ew 175/1 |
24 March 15.00
I have a couple of players I want to back for the NW Louisiana Open but will wait for the morning to see who else prices up - in the meantime a couple from left field - in Spain the talented youngster Borja Etchart who won his last two starts in Spain last season and warmed up nicely 2 weeks ago with a top 10 finish - £18 1000, £10 top 10 50/1 and £2 top 10 60/1 + £8 ew 300/1 for round one leader. In the Champions tour I think Lu will go well again but the price is too short - I will take a small bet on Trevor Dodds who makes his tour debut and will like the windy conditions £10 ew 250/1 |
24 March 11.34
I have been a bit confused about what to do with a bet I had earlier in the week on Stephen Ames (£90 win 50/1 and £40 top 5 10/1 on Betfair) as I am very keen on him this week and really only expected him to be 33/1 tops! Obviously he has a great Florida record and a very good course record and is coming into some very decent form but I read that he only likes the course if its soft not firm so have been waiting to find out all week how it will play. I think the changes to the course will suit his game and thanks to Dave Tindall I found out it will be soft due to a very wet winter. So the bet stands! I also had a small saver on Fowler of £10 ew 70/1 as he has some course form - 7th and 1st as a junior. |
23 March 15.18
Adding one further bet for Andalucia - I do fancy Levet and again Peter Lawrie but I don't think backing infrequent winners at odds of 40/1 is going to make me money in the long run so one of them is bound to win. Instead I will invest £25 ew on Havret at 125/1, he has been in the doldrums for some time but there have been definite signs of an improvement over the last few weeks. I still remember fondly how he beat Mickeslon in a playoff at Loch Lomond and is a good closer when he put himself in position. |
23 March 11.20
A couple of bets for the Arnold Palmer on two young players who will perform well on the PGA tour at some stage in the future -
Webb Simpson £25 ew 125/1 and £35 win 150
Jamie Lovemark - £50 win 440, £8 top 5 & ties 55/1, £10 top 5 50/1, £20 top 10 & ties 20/1, £20 top 10 23/1 |
22 March 20.42
Took a couple of days away from things - when you are on a bad run it is sometimes easier just to wave goodbye to the money for the week and try to move on. One thing I do find this year is that most of my returns have been on the big priced outsiders - spotting things that others haven't and I guess over the years that is where my money has been made - then again I don't want to keep analysing and changing strategy as you end up going round in ever decreasing circles.
Anyway - looking at this week in Spain - don't want to get too heavily involved but a player I mentioned last week in running interests me - Christain Nilsson seems to be turning into a regular top 20 player now he has settled down after his maiden tour win. He was a bit rusty last week but finished well and 80/1 was too big in my eyes - £50 ew. |
20 March 10.59
Well I can't say that this week has gone particularly well so far with the exception of the main bet of the week Peter Lawrie. Looking through the Transitions updated markets I am going to take a small risk on last weeks winner Derek Lamely who shot through the field last week,who came second the event after winning on his debut on the Nationwide last season and who has said he loves the course - £15 win 550 average, £15 top 5 41/1 and £30 top 10 14/1 |
18 March 21.21
Morocco is a bit like the Good - Peter Lawrie, the Bad - Michael Hoey so I might as well add the Ugly - C Nilsson - thought about backing him before the off but will add him now he has played well on the tough course £30 85 on Betfair. |
17 March 21.50
Finally got some time to sit down and write down my thoughts about this weeks events - starting with Morocco and the Hassan Trophy - the latest pro-am to hit the Euro tour
Peter Lawrie - has been in solid form this year which reads well in what is not the strongest field ever to assemble on the European tour - on the desert swing he was 27th Abu Dhabi and 9th Qatar and his 10th lto was pretty remarkable considering he took a 10 on a par 5. He has course form with a 2nd here a while ago on the Challenge Tour and there is something quite interesting in his form from the last 2 years - in 2008 he was 9th in Asia - came back to Europe and won and last year he was 8th in Asia and then returned and was 3rd - both of these in Spain which has a similar climate to Morocco at this time of the year.
Michael Hoey is difficult to catch right but at 100/1 is worth a poke in a country he has won in before and in 2008 he shot the best final round in the Hassan Trophy to get to 4th so he should have fond memories. All his best form has been in the Spring on whatever tour he has played and he can suddenly turn it on even when in poor form.
Onto the Transitions - you could say the Copperhead Course is definitely a horses for courses place with Choi and Goosen both winning twice and VJ coming 1st and 2nd which led me rapidly to my first pick
John Senden - back to back runner-up places once the event moved to a March slot on the calender played really well last week at Doral - his 11th was his best finish ever on the course so he should come here full of confidence and the early 100/1 was far too big.
George McNeill was also tied for 2nd alongside Senden back in 08 and can throw in two other 2nd place finishes in Florida since then so is clearly at hom ein Florida. With 3 top 5 finishes in his last 9 starts how can he be 100/1?
Bryce Molder - not a lot to say about him apart from the fact he has great form in Florida and has had three consecutive top 10's - he was particularly good over the final two rounds in Puerto Rico .
Will Mackenzie - bit of a pick from left field but I just think he will put in a bold showing back home in Florida - he has said he finds the West Coast swing difficult - he just cannot read the greens and is a poor putter anwyay but he feels at home on the bermuda in Florida as witnessed by his 15th and 12th placed finishes in his last two starts. He has won twice on tour with his second win coming just after becoming a dad - interestingly he has just become a dad again three weeks ago.
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17 March 11.07
Well it turns out Imada is a non runner in Florida which is a surprise as he is playing well and done well on the course before - I have found an outsider I like the look of and have had £35 win 340, £10 top 5 40/1, £10 top 5 inc ties 33/1 and £25 top 10 inc ties 18/1 on local lad Will Mackenzie |
16 March 12.19
Its all been a bit of a rush the last 24 hours - sorry for no explanations - but still trying to get bets on - more or less there now - Transitions - Imada £50 win110 + £50 top 5 18/1, Hassan - Michael Hoey £25 ew 100/1. Should be back with reasons later today if I can drag myself away from Cheltenham! |
15 March 21.37
Even though there are very few prices around for the Transitions I do think sometimes you have to strike early when a price looks wrong - and I will also add Bryce Molder £30 ew 100/1 and £20 110 |
15 March 18.23
And a couple of early bets for the Transitions on players who will be well supported this week - John Senden £30 ew 100/1 + £20 110 & George McNeil £30 ew 100/1 + £20 115 |
15 March 16.57
I quite like golf on a Monday - it means the early week is divided with the Euro tour prices on a Monday and US on a Tuesday - sadly though neither Elkington or Austin are close enough!
One early bet for the Hassan Trophy as I think he will be very popular this week - Peter Lawrie £75 ew 40/1 and I got £65 at 55 on betfair early doors - best prices here |
14 March 13.42
A quick Sunday update - sadly Reid dropped back to 10th overnight in Australia with a poor final round. In Puerto Rico I guess Johnson isn't out of it - especially with a lot of golf left to play and Elkington is right up there - I have also added Woody Austin who sits at -7 - £50 at 45/1 - he fits the bill of a mid 40's Floridian and is playing well. Kelly has been very disappointing at Doral but looking at the leaders not many of them are trustworthy so I got £30 matched at 100 on Kuchar who is more than capable of going low in round four. |
13 March 09.05
They finally got underway in Puerto Rico yesterday and my guess is that this will be a maximum of 54 holes - just hope they get that many played as RS Johnson has made a cracking start. Over in Australia Melissa Reid has worked her way through the field to lie 7th with one round to go and is one shot out of a place. Going out for a family day so will be interesting to see what the Puerto Rico scoreboard looks like on my return. |
11 March 21.11
A great shame that the course in Puerto Rico got hit by a torrential downpour today but I think the next few days look OK. Kelly has made a solid start in Florida and someone was keen to lay him before the off at much bigger prices so I now have £100 at 175 average and will be quite happy to lay back for a decent free bet. At this time of the year I like to keep one eye on the Masters and players going well and whilst O'Hair has been dogged by injury - offering 130 is just madness and I snapped up the £59 up for grabs.
Over in Aus Melissa Reid left her current form behind with a decent round.
I have been doing a lot of work on HBI this week where we have changed emphasis to the big bets after we some research into results for the past year and the start to the new plan has been brilliant with two £400 winners at 9/4 and 7/2 - happy days!!! |
10 March 14.01
I have looked at the two "smaller" events this week and have come up with a small bet in the Womens Australian Open - Melissa Reid has not played well so far this season but she has been 3rd in each of the last two years in this and has a top 5 strike rate of around 25% so a small dabble of £10 ew 80/1 and £30 top 5 16/1 |
9 March 14.59
My initial thoughts on Puerto Rico this week were to back Molder and Durant but I had to change my mind when I saw the prices - Molder is 20/1 favourite having never won a PGA tour event and Durant is simply too short at 33/1 - maybe Mayakoba was a flash in the pan?? - I was lucky to get £20 at 60 on Sunday but will leave it at that. The two winners of this event so far show similar traits - both in their 40's with strong links to Florida - Bradley and Kraft were big odds when they won. Interestingly they also have a good record at Doral - whether there are course similarities or whether its the time of year - or even psychological that its played alongside the WGC event who knows!! I guess its the reason I liked Durant as he fitted the profile but instead I have had to look elsewhere. One Florida player who is the right age is Rocco Mediate who played well for two rounds last year before fading at the weekend - he likes the course and will love the hot and humid weather which should keep his ailments at bay - at the price I will take a risk - £10 ew 150/1, £20 win 150, £15 top 5 33/1, £30 top 10 14/1 & £10 ew rd 1 125/1.
The other player in his 40's with good Doral form is Elkington but he hasn't really impressed in recent years but at 90 is worth a small £25 saver.
When going down the list looking at players who I feel are maybe overpriced I stopped at RS Johnson - why is he so much bigger in price than a lot of others? At least he has won a PGA tour event (more than can be said of most) and has made every 36 hole cut so far this season including a 4th in Mexico two starts ago. I think he realises he has to have a good year this season as his exemption runs out and it will be in these poorer events he will stand a greater chance. He is quite a talented player when on song - as witnessed by his 8th at the Open last year and in this field his price is simply too big - £50 ew 66/1 and £50 85 win. |
8 March 17.59
Had a look through the field for the CA Championship and to be honest didn't expect to find any value in the 68 man field but I did think Jerry Kelly was interesting at a few big prices
£35 win 140 Betfair
£10 ew 125/1
£20 top 5 25/1
£50 top 10 10/1
£20 ew top Yank 50/1 |
8 March 15.07
Chien Soon Lu held on for a top 5 finish - it looked touch and go for a while but he managed to birdie 3 of the last 4 holes to finish 3rd and earn a full place payout. Sadly Avatar was beaten in the Best Picture Oscar market - the 9/1 odds were clearly wrong a few months ago and maybe I should have laid back at around evens - at least the £60 stake. Looking at this weeks golf - I have a feeling things might be quite quiet. |
6 March 17.04
A quick update - well Points and Klauk were simply awful - last years course form seems to have been largely thrown out of the window but Gillis I suppose still has an outside chance. As for other bets - well the best hope is for 150/1 shot Chien Soon-Lu who is tied for the lead after the first round of the Toshiba Classic.
I started looking at the Grand National this week and had my first bet today - after Erics Charm won his race I got £20 ew 100/1 - he seems to tick all the boxes. |
3 March 12.23
The Honda Classic has an interesting "feel" to it this year - looking at the top of the market you would think it was a peak season event on European soil and I do feel for what they have achieved on US soil the head of the field is worth taking on. This event has also been the scene of many PGA debut wins over the years so I am not afraid to pick four players who are winless on tour to date. The course was originally designed by Tom Fazio but revamped by Nicklaus and now is one of the toughest on tour so look out for players who enjoy a tough test rather than a birdie fest.
D.A Points - Was impressed by him at Torrey Pines when he finished 9th and shot rounds of 65/74/71 on the South course. Not too worried about his next start as his wife was being induced on the Monday and he was rather keen to get home to Florida to witness the birth of his first child and last week was his first trip away so an m/c on a course he hasn't played well before was hardly a surprise. I tipped him up playing at home last year in the Childrens Miracle where he finished 7th and he was also 9th in this last year plus his last win on the Nationwide Tour came in Florida - clearly he likes playing at home. He admitted last year he lost focus after securing his card with a top 3 finish at the Byron Nelson but is determined to go for a win this season. He also has a superb record on Tom Fazio designed courses - 10th in this event on the Mirasol course (when bang out of form), 2nd and 3rd at the Glen Club and 2nd at Myrtle Beach - all in all it adds up to a rather large bet!
Jeff Klauk was 4th here last year and has always maintained the tougher the course the better his results are. He recorded two other top four finishes last season as well and I wouldn't be surprised to see him shake off a couple of poor performances now back home in Florida.
Tom Gillis has turned into a model of consistency since winning on the Nationwide Tour last June and in 15 appearances has turned in 8 top 10 finishes including Pebble beach. The 200/1 each way was too big to resist especially as he does have some recent form on the course when playing it on the Gateway Tour.
Chad Collins is a bit like Gillis - very consistent on the Nationwide Tour (including a win in Florida) and he has carried that over to the main tour - all five cuts made including 4th Mayakoba and 10th Bob Hope |
3 March 10.57
A quick post about Malaysia - not a lot gets me interested about the event - the course has changed a lot since it was played in 2006 and initially the only player that interested me was Horsey (was lucky enough to get £15 matched at 65 on Sunday night) but his general odds are too low. One interesting player is Arjun Atwal - has teed it up in Malaysia just twice in recent years - 2003 and 2008 - in the Malaysian Open and won both times - worth £25 at the Betfair odds of 150. |
3 March 09.46
A few further bets for this week are listed below - will be back later today with thoughts and reasonings for selections
Honda - round 1 leader - Wi £12 ew 80/1,MAckenzie £8 ew 125/1
Bogota Open - Peter Gustafsson £16 ew 45/1
ANZ Ladies Masters - Kristie Smith £25 ew 80/1 |
2 March 15.02
Well I already have a return for my money as Ben Crane has withdrawn - my other bet for the Honda is Chad Collins - £40 win 160,£10 top 5 24/1,£20 top 6 22/1,£30 top 10 11/1.
I also have a small bet on the Champions tour Toshiba event - Chien Soon-Lu £10 ew 150/1 + £20 top 5 25/1 |
2 March 10.00
Right then - two bets to go for the Honda - will leave one til a bit later but will reveal my biggie for the week - actually could be one of the bigger ones of the year - everything Points to D.A this week!
£150 win 160 average
£50 top 5 26/1
£10 top 6 25/1
£40 top 10 13/1 |
1 March 21.22
A couple of early bets for the Honda which heralds the start of the east coast swing. I do think there is going to be a large amount of value here as all the "favourites" are way too short for what they have achieved on the PGA tour in my opinion.
Ben Crane £50 ew 50/1 + £20 50 Betfair
Jeff Klauk £20 ew 150/1 + £15 150 Betfair
Tom Gillis £20 ew 200/1 + £15 200 Betfair
I do have 2 more bets lined up including the best one of the week but they can wait til tomorrow |
