29 June 22.17
Was going to give the AT&T a miss being a new course this week at Aronimink but like Dave Tindall have gone for the course designer angle. Donald Ross also designed Sedgefield where Kevin Stadler has an excellent record - lost in a play off last year and 7th in 2007 and he also won on the Nationwide Tour at Irondequoit one of the other few Ross courses to be used on tour. He has had three top 10's this season and whilst he hasn't been in the best of form lately he has the ability to pull out a good performance form nowhere - 200/1 e/w and 20/1 top 10 are worth a poke where no-one has any course advantage. |
29 June 13.55
I have always thought Le Golf National has a "linksy" feel to it and it does seem to be a bit of a specialists track and I have gone with one player who loves links golf. Shane Lowry famously won the Irish Open as an amateur last year and promptly turned professional - he struggled a bit to start with but this was the scene of his first paycheck. He proved with his 4th in Abu Dhabi earlier this season that that win was no fluke and has made his last eight cuts - last week he was looking at the weekend off until he birdied four of his last six holes and ended up playing as good as anyone over the last three rounds. I have backed him e/w at 125/1 & 150/1 and to trade on Betfair at 200/1 |
28 June 15.41
The less said about last week the better - especially knowing Verplank could go low over the weekend at River Highlands yet still failing to get involved was a poor decision and part of me was rather grateful that Watson finally broke his duck.
I am still looking at the Open and will add plays as and when I think the value jumps out - and I don't see why Soren Hansen should be ten times the price he will start at for this weeks French Open. If he has really put his "tax problems" behind him he could well prove to be a great trade and I have invested £40 at 390 |
27 June 08.45
Well I got one call right for the Open - I can't see Ben Curtis going off any bigger than 80/1 - on the other hand Vijay Singh...........!!
I had a quick look at the BMW this morning and spotted something a bit odd - the last time Cabrera-Bello shot 71,67,66 he shot 60 in the final round in Austria and won!! - worth a few quid at 120 on Betfair for some interest before the football. |
25 June 13.05
I am keeping a very close eye on leaderboards at the moment looking for potential plays for the Open - Vijay said he was back and didn't play that badly at Pebble and at 185 on the exchanges I had to get involved for St Andrews as he currently leads on the PGA tour |
24 June 22.05
Well the US Open didn't finish that long ago but we have to move on to the next Major - the Open at St Andrews in a few weeks time and one player that is worth backing now as he is coming into form is Ben Curtis. I have taken some 150 win and 125/1 each way - I doubt very much he will start in three figures |
22 June 12.37
I have long been a fan of Felipe Aguilar and do think one day he could win a lot more on the European Tour and he might get an opportunity this week. Last year he was 4th in the BMW International on the back of five straight missed cuts - this year he arrives in much better form.He was 36th in Madrid but 5th in the all round stats and in Portugal was 13th and 4th in the stats - sandwiched between those two was a m/c in Wales but he had a quad bogey in round one which blew his chances. He has won in Germany before on the Challenge Tour and I think he is worth a bet - have had some on the win 240 average on Betfair and then top 5 and ties 25/1 |
22 June 10.50
I remember a few years ago when McDowell won on the Euro tour it seemed to inspire something in the Northern Irish contingent (much as it does with the French) and soon Clarke and Hoey won - well something similar may happen with Clarke who seems to be a golfer who needs "inspiration" these days. Armed with a new set of shafts in his irons and a new caddie on the bag he played three excellent rounds in Portugal to finish 6th and the last time he played this course in 2004 he occupied that position. I have backed him e/w 60/1 with Jenningsbet who offer 6 places but the 66/1 Betfred is more than fair (plus a bit at 85 on Betfair) |
21 June 09.28
Another US Open done and dusted and the place part of the e/w bet on Love scuppered by an absolute shocker of a shot on 17. Last nights result brought back some interesting thoughts and memories - two years since Mediate in the US Open, three years since Havrets' win in the Scottish Open - both brought lots of money to my betting balance. These are the big wins I have been missing over the last twelve months - last year Rhys Wood in the Open and Yang in the US PGA were the best results of the year so I think it still makes sense to concentrate on the Majors and I will keep going with the specialist bets on round one leaders and the minor tours - it's only a matter of time - I keep telling myself!! |
19 June 22.59
I have sat here tonight and watched the last two hours coverage and eventually pulled the trigger on Davis Love e/w at 150/1 1/5 4. Whilst the front nine is throwing up some chances the back nine is playing brutal and with the wind up the sun out and late tee times meaning the poa greens are going to grow I wouldn't be surprised if +1 led at the end of today and +4 will be in the top 10. Love follows in the tradition of every US Open winner at Pebble having won the pro-am - indeed he has won it twice - hopefully I will wake up to something nicer than I did this morning! |
19 June 11.02
What a difference a few hours makes - went to bed last night not feeling too bad about things - had just laid some Fujita at 50/55, Barnes and Verplank were up there and BVP not far behind - certainly didn't look that way this morning!!! Who knows what will happen today but I can see Mickelson finally winning his US Open. |
18 June 10.22
I didn't get to see much of the first round yesterday due to being out and then tucked up in bed! I guess my position is one of - could have been a lot better/could have been a lot worse but I have four players sat on +1 who all played in the morning which actually played 0.75 shots harder than the afternoon. The only thing I have done is laid some Fujita as his DA/GIR stats were woeful and he won't shoot +1 again playing like that |
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15 June 15.46
Its time for the second Major of the year and the US Open returns to one of its best venues – Pebble Beach. There have been a few changes to the course so don't expect anyone to run away with it like Woods did back in 2000 and also don't expect the course to look like it does at the beginning of each year for the annual pro-am. I really think Woods might well struggle and I haven't seen enough positive signs from him over the last few months and although Dustin Johnson has won the last two pro-ams he will find this a different kettle of fish. When we last saw Mickelson he was hitting the ball an absolute mile – in all directions – but you simply wouldn't rule him out finding what was required this week.
The one thing I will say about the US Open is that surprises happen – last years top three Glover,Barnes and Duval were hardly expected and I remember the “battle of wounded knee” vividly from 2008 having had some decent sized bets on Rocco Mediate at up to 600/1. Other recent winners such as Cabrera and Campbell were hardly near the top of the betting tree so expect outsiders to contend. What I have done is picked out the players that I can see contending and what the best markets for them are – obviously looking at value from a betting point of view. Underneath I have then listed all my bets with books and positions on Betfair
First of all the two players I bet antepost and getting a bit more value knowing the prices would shorten
Stewart Cink - seems to reserve some of his best play for the Summer and plays especially well on seaside links with small greens - his two wins at Harbour Town are testament to that plus of course he has a good Open record obviously winning at Turnberry (was also 6th Carnoustie). He is one player who doesn't play the Pebble Beach pro-am but I would swerve players who do well in that event - the course set up will be totally different and it is a different time of year and when Pebble was last used for the US Open he was 8th having opened up with a very poor 77. He would love to add to the one Major he has and would dearly love to win a US Open - he came so close at Southern Hills in 2001.
Bo Van Pelt – a bet based on his current form and there really is not a lot to add to the obvious - if someone else had the finishes below recently he would be sitting amongst the favourites
Verizon heritage 3rd
Quail Hollow 5th
Players Championship 4th
Crowne Plaza 10th
Memorial 3rd
Players added this week
Ricky Barnes - I picked out and had a decent bet on Barnes in the pro-am earlier this year and tbh he was disappointing – although his best round a 69 came at Pebble Beach. Basically Ricky grew up playing Pebble Beach and other courses around the area (a bit like Tom Watson) and much of his best form has been on courses in California. After last years 2nd place finish in the US Open he didn't do a lot but this season he is finally starting to fulfil his potential with a 10th at the Masters,5th at Harbour Town and then 7th and 3rd in his last two starts
Vijay Singh - IF he is back to his best (as he says he is) then he has an excellent US Open and Pebble Beach pedigree and around 150 on Betfair could be a very good trading price
Scott Verplank – another player who has been if fine form of late 13th at the Players and 5th in the last two events of the Texas swing. Normally I would say he couldn't win a US Open due to his length off the tee but this is shorter and will favour his accurate play and he can boast two top ten finishes in US Opens in his last six attempts so that is probably the best market for him.
Hiroyuki Fujita – well what can I say apart from what an insulting price for the best Japanese player at the moment in the field. He is turning into the Japanese equivalent of Kenny Perry or Vijay Singh – since turning 40 last June he has won three times. In Japan this year he has finished 11/1/2/3/27/2 – incredibly consistent and he has also won the Open qualifier held in Malaysia and the US Open qualifier by an impressive five shots. Far East players have been doing better in Majors over the last few years – Tanihara placed in the Open a few years back and Katayama placed at Augusta last year – plus of course we had Yang winning the PGA Championship - perhaps he has been inspired by the Korean. He is one of the most accurate players on his home tour and one of his wins a few years ago came on the Southern Links at Okinawa a course which is very similar to Pebble Beach.
Eric Axley – a bit of a stab in the dark – says he is playing well (not borne out by his results!) - but he hosed up last Monday in the most competitive qualifier – maybe he can repeat the top 10 he got at Torrey Pines two years ago when he played really well for three rounds.
Tom Watson – well after watching him at Turnberry last season I simply cannot leave him out of the equation. In a sense Pebble Beach is similar to Turnberry for Watson as he has probably more experience than any other player in the field at the venue. It will be hard and fast so he won't be disadvantaged by length – he can plot his way round and with his showings at Dubai and the Masters this year you really couldn't rule out a complete fairytale – ignore him at your peril at such big prices!
Betfair - winner with Woods
Bo Van Pelt £70 150
Stewart Cink £30 190
Ricky Barnes £30 160
Vijay Signh £15 190
Scott Verplank £15 280
Tom Watson £25 650
Hiroyuki Fujita £95 950
Betfair winner without Woods
Stewart Cink £25 110
Bookmaker Bets
Stewart Cink £40 ew 100/1 ¼ 5
Bo Van Pelt £40 ew 100/1 ¼ 5
Ricky Barnes £20 ew 125/1 ¼ 6
Scott Verplank £25 top 10 14/1
Hiroyuki Fujita £20 top 5 100/1 + £10 ew top ROW 100/1
Eric Axley £10 top 10 66/1
Tom Watson £10 ew 400/1 ¼ 6 |
15 June 10.04
I do find the prices on Hiroyuki Fujita surprisingly insulting and have backed him accordingly outright on Betfair, top 5 and top ROW to take out around £100k - more on why later. |
14 June 16.44
Next player to add to my outright betting portfolio has to be Ricky Barnes after what I said about him for the AT&T and I think 125/1 ew with 6 places is more than fair (+some on at 170 win only Betfair) - if you can do try and get on at the books with 6 places - I know how many golfers I have backed over the years who have finished 6th!! |
14 June 14.59
Sometimes a price on Betfair just stands out and grabs your attention and it did this morning when I saw 190 Vijay Singh and had to have a small dabble - IF he is back to his best (as he says he is) then he has an excellent US Open and Pebble Beach pedigree. It's going to be a busy two days but I am biding my time in trying to decide what best markets to play my selections in. |
13 June 22.24
Well it seems like I made the right call on Bo Van Pelt - yesterday he was still 140 on Betfair - today I have managed to lay some as low as 50!!! - it really was too big a price and the bookmakers have been adding him to their markets at around the 66/1 mark. Apart from the two I have mentioned so far I have another eight players who will be worth looking at in various markets - more tomorrow as more books go up with specialist markets. |
11 June 13.07
A quick update on what sort of profit the Select Service Bets have returned over the first month - 56 points staked 99.25 returned plus two mentions at 500/1 and 125/1 which placed - not too shabby for £75 a month! If you want to see a run down of the results send me an email - they are all independently proofed. |
10 June 21.59
OK - second bet for next weeks US Open (after Cink) has to be this man - if someone else had the finishes below recently he would be sitting amongst the favourites
Verizon heritage 3rd
Quail Hollow 5th
Players Championship 4th
Crowne Plaza 10th
Memorial 3rd
How the hell can Bo Van Pelt be 100/1 ew?? - have had £40 ew plus been matched for £70 at 150 on Betfair - with any luck I will be able to trade if he can maintain his current form.
Select Service customers just missed out on a big pay day with Manley in round one in Portugal at 150/1 - still a nice place return |
9 June 23.09
I have been working all day on the US Open and it is a surprise that more books haven't priced up all the runners so far as they are known so I guess its hats off to Ladbrokes and Paddy Power for their early efforts at pricing every player. I must admit the more I look at it the more I am really looking forward to it and I have some very good ideas for bets - what I will try and do is put bets up as I come up with them over the coming 5 days and also on Tuesday do a full written preview |
9 June 11.00
Apart from the select service first round bets I really do feel uninspired by this weeks events so have concentrated on preparing for the US Open next week - I do love the Majors and it certainly doesn't feel like two years ago we were cheering on Rocco at some massive prices - hopefully I can find next weeks "Rocco"!
I have had a look at this weeks LPGA event - the State Farm Classic and have a feeling Se Ri Pak is overpriced around 50/1. She won her last full field event a month ago and her best performance last year was a 2nd place finish here at Panther Creek - best prices available here |
7 June 10.17
At last I have found the holy grail to finding winners on the PGA and European tours and it really is quite simple - pick any player who you think won't win an event because they either never have or haven't for a long time and back them! The list is growing longer by the week for this season - yesterday we added Justin Rose to Luke Donald,Simon Khan,Adam Scott,Fred Hed,Tim Clark etc.
Stewart Cink completed his warm up for Pebble Beach with a solid performance and I think he is peaking at the right time - I think he will be tipped up a lot next week and would be surprised if he went off bigger than 66/1 |
5 June 11.17
Its Derby day today - last year I would have been interested - this year with the demise of Horse Betting Index I can't say I am bothered in the least - I must admit the demise of HBI is probably one of the best things to happen to me.
Have got a little involved in Wales this morning jumping on Lynn at 500/1 as he started his romp through the field - hopefully the leaders will stumble like yesterday. |
4 June 23.07
A quick post re Cink for the US Open - I really do think looking at his stats so far in this weeks Memorial he is definitely heading in the right direction and will probably be a big steamer
On the select servce bet front I did put out a mention for Nielsen in the Champions tour who has finished t4th at 125/1 - sadly with umpteen others!! |
1 June 21.53
A bit more on Laird for the Memorial - he definitely seems to be a player to get on side once he hits form and his 10th place last week seems to have been inspired by his qualification for the Open which he was thrilled at. Whilst he has no course form for Muirfield Village he does have a solid history at Jack Nicklaus designed courses with plenty of low rounds. I think the odds reflect the fact he has no course form but I wouldn't count that against him as he is a winner on tour and has a solid top 6 strike rate even in good quality fields. |
1 June 18.23
For those of you wondering how the select service is going - so far 35 points staked with a profit of 23.75 points - so a pretty good return but a low strike rate (this doesn't include last weeks mention when we had a 500/1 shot tied 5th but only two books priced up so not an official bet) There are still a couple of places remaining if anyone wants to join just send me an email. |
1 June 13.02
As yesterday was a bank holiday I decided to join a lot of other people and actually have a day off for a change! Anyway - quick post - looking at this weeks Memorial - will explain more later but have had a good bet on Martin Laird - win only on Betfair at 280 and top 6 with Stan james at 33/1
Also in view of what I said about Cink last week for the US Open I was lucky and got in early at 75 for this weeks event - expect a solid couple of weeks from last seasons Open Champion |
