29 July 21.36
Last event of the week to bet on is the Nationwide event in Ohio the Childrens Hospital Invitation played on the OSU course. I have looked closely at Chad Collins who has won once at this level and finished 2nd on his only appearance here in 2007. In the last few months he has changed his ball and it has reaped dividends in his GIR stats, he closed with a solid 65 last week and often comes to life in the summer. Skybet are 100/1 and he is worth £25 ew.
I will also have £10 ew on Vaughn Snyder at 200/1 Tote - the OSU player will know the course well and having qualified and played in the US Open as an amateur he decided to turn pro a couple of weeks ago and he had a good debut in the Ohio State Open last week by winning. |
29 July 18.17
One other player worthy of a small bet in the Scottish Challenge is talented young Italian Andrea Perrino - Bet365 opened at 250/1 and have cut him back to 66/1 but Stan James are very generous indeed with their 400/1 and he is definitely worth £10 ew. Back tonight with a pick or maybe two for the Nationwide Tour. |
29 July 14.36
There are two Majors on this week with the US Senior Open being played in the States hot on the heels of last weeks Senior Open at Sunningdale. Crooked Stick was last used for the 1991 PGA Championship so a lot of this weeks contenders will have played the course before but 18 years is a long gap. I will have a small play on someone who was 32nd all those years ago and whose best form always seems to be in the height of the summer - step forward David Edwards. He actually has some solid form in Majors - he was 6th in this event last season,2nd in the Jeld Wen in 07 and managed a 6th at Turnberry in 06. He seems to just be coming into form and although he might struggle with distance his accurate game should suit, £20 ew 200/1 Best Prices Here |
29 July 11.36
I am going to avoid the European Tour event in the Czech Republic like the proverbial plague - there is no point in trying to guess. I have however had a look at the Scottish Challenge event and have come up with a small bet. Craig Lee leads the Tartan Tour money list - in four starts he has managed a win and two runner-up slots. He played on the European Tour last season but struggled although a 17th in the Russian Open wasn't bad. He has been confined to playing in smaller events this year and also won a couple in Turkey back in January but the key to the bet was his win on the Tartan Tour mentioned above - it came on the Spey Valley course used this week and he won by 5 shots so he will certainly feel at home £20 ew 150/1 Tote. |
29 July 00.10
Just a quick update re Sophie G at the Womens British Open - Coral have gone 33/1 |
28 July 15.25
I cannot see why the player I backed last week - Yang is still such a big price in this weeks Buick Open. If you take out Woods and Furyk the field really is quite weak. Already a winner this season and he has outplayed Woods down the stretch before - the only reason he is such a big price is the fact he has no course form but I don't see why that should put me off. When you look at last weeks result when 8th look closely at his 3rd round score - he took 37 putts!! If he had putted slightly better not only would he have placed but possibly won. I'll have £50 on the win at 130/1 Betfair and £70 top 6 22/1 Stan James |
28 July 11.58
There was always going to be one player I was definitely going to back for this weeks Womens British Open. Thankully I kept an eye on the Evian Masters last week and Unibets rather generous offer of keeping a market up and I managed to get £80 ew on Sophie Gustafson at 80/1 - however it has left me in a bit of a dilemna - is she still worth a bet at 28/1 and would I bet her at that price had I not got on last week? Looking at the facts - she has played Lytham three times and finished 2nd,8th,2nd and has also finished 1st and 2nd just down the road at Birkdale - this is the ideal course for her. Whilst her form this year has not been great she did finish 2nd at the Portmarnock Links and then lost in a play off last week. I guess the key question will be how will she comes out of losing in a playoff and looking back in the two she has lost before she came out and finished top 5 in her next event. Therefore though I wouldn't back her in a normal event at this price I would have to take the 28/1 for this and would have no worries in investing £100 ew. |
28 July 10.15
Well what a frustrating week with the Canadian Open going into the Monday 6 days after putting up Yang at 200/1 he comes in 8th 2 shots out of the places - mainly due to a poor 3rd round. Will be back in a bit with some tips for this weeks events. |
25 July 10.50
Thought I'd better put something up as these are supposed to be daily musings! To be honest I have been busy researching next weeks Womens British Open where there could be a very interesting contender. This weeks golf is not going too well so I am glad stakes were kept pretty small and save the ammunition for the big weeks. In Canada bad weather has hit the event but there is one player I am interested in at this point - Parker McLachlin hit form at this time last year when he finally got his nose in front, whilst he is not blessed with a strong mind when he hits the front he is nevertheless a winner and although I have backed him £25 win 220/1 and £30 top 5 18/1 on Betfair the 125/1 at Skybet 1/4 4 is more than fair. |
22 July 21.50
Last bet of the week comes in the Cox Classic on the Nationwide Tour and comes in the shape of Chris Anderson. There will be a grave atmosphere in Omaha this week - 97 Champion Chris Smith will be missing as he continues to mourn the death of his wife a few weeks ago along with best friends Anderson and Hietela (last years champion). Our pick certainly found some form last time out when 4th (he was also 5th in the all-round ranking) adding to his 3rd earlier this season and he admits he is playing the best golf of his career. His course form is very solid in 08 he was 3rd for putting,07 he was 6th at the cut,06 although 64th the 65 in round 1 was the lowest round of the year and in 04 he was 2nd heading into the final round. I managed to get 150/1 earlier but I would still suggest 80/1 is still fair value for £50 ew. |
22 July 11.20
I quite fancy Laura Davies! Now there's a statement I didn't think I would ever make - and let me make it absolutely clear - I fancy her to play well in the Evian Masters this week!! She has been in a bit of a slump since winning in Australia in February but was 17th in the US Open stating it was the best she had played for some time. She backed that up with a top 10 in Spain last week closing with a 66. Her overall record in the Evian is very solid and in recent times she was 2nd in 06,5th 04,2nd 99 and won in 96 so I see no reason to believe she should be a 125/1 shot at Sky,Ladbrokes and Tote £20 ew Best prices here
Looking at this weeks Senior Open I have tried to unearth another Chris Wood but it is a lot harder when most of the field are deadwood. Playing at Sunningdale will be very different to the usual seaside links courses and I think some players are too short based on their previous event form. I will have a crack at Angel Franco from Paraguay - the elder brother of Carlos Franco. A well travelled player who has won many tournaments in a long career and came to play on the European Senior Tour last season. He has played 18 times so far and whilst he has failed to win he has been 2nd four times,4th twice and 5th.The course will suit him and Extrabet have underestimated his chances £30 win 150/1 £70 top 5 and ties 28/1 |
21 July 15.00
One other small interest in Canada for the week in the shape of firey Spencer Levin who seems to be getting his act together on tour with the putts beginning to drop. He was the model of consistency on the Nationwide Tour last season and a few years ago was the leading money winner on the Canadian tour - perhaps like Chez Reavie last year Canada will bring some fond memories and a win. Managed to get £45 matched at 110 average on Betfair and took the 22/1 top 6 at Stan James for £30. |
21 July 10.42
I thought Blue Square were being pretty generous with their quote of 150/1 about YE Yang for the Canadian Open so I was even more pleased to see Sportingbet open up at 200/1 this morning. It seems a crazy price for a player who has already won this season, has made his last 3 cuts and been spared the flight to Scotland and back. He will be fresh and whilst last years finish of 37th is nothing to get excited about it came on the back of 7 straight missed cuts so there must be something about the course which suits his game,£25 ew for me. Best prices here |
20 July 23.42
Will be back tomorrow with any other bets for the week - but being far more selective so don't know how many there will be until a full range of prices are out. Just looking back at bets that have been put up on the blog and the profit/loss is as follows
AT&T -£10
Dicks Sporting Goods -£50
John Deere +£925
Scottish Open -£115
The Open +£4410
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20 July 17.26
I wasn't going to have a bet at the SAS Masters this week - the course at Barseback hasn't been used much in recent years and is an odd combination of seashore and parkland where I think length might be important this week. Anyway as I said - nothing stood out until I spotted young American Kyle Stanley was playing on a sponsors invitation. He made the cut at the US Open and then turned pro and has made the cut in each of the 3 events he has started on the PGA tour - not many playing this week could achieve that! He was 100/1 last week in Milwaukee where although he made the cut he didn't really like the course as he couldn't get his driver out - that won't be the case this week and his length off the tee should be a big bonus. I was lucky to get £30 ew at Ladbrokes when they opened at 250/1 but I would recommend anyone to have £40 ew at 150/1 with Bluesquare or Betfred - some books seem to be dodging him whilst the Tote are as low as 66/1. Best prices Here |
19 July 23.10
What a day from Chris Wood!! First time I have been able to get online to update the blog - part of me is upset that he bogeyed the last but I couldn't have asked of more of the young lad from Bristol. The top 10 bet obviously worked out but it was the trading bet that proved rather stressfull. Having left some lays up at 5.5 and somewhat bigger I had to go out for a big family do - eventually managing to get online I saw he had traded at 5.9 and then drifted back out - hopefully some followed my original idea of laying some of the £60k back at 10/1 and I managed to do the same - laying half at 10/1 leaving a £30k win but it wasn't to be,but overall a good profit was made and this has led me to believe that by sticking to the events I know I can turn a profit will continue to do so. |
18 July 16.20
Well its getting more and more wide open at Turnberry and I will have one more roll of the dice on someone already safely in the clubhouse on +1 who won't be far off the lead come the end of the days play - Swede Richard S Johnson who spookily won the US Bank event that runs alongside the Open last year but couldn't defend when he ot his place in this weeks field, 150/1 at Coral and Skybet with 1/4 4 places seems a bit generous to me £25 ew. |
18 July 09.10
Well yesterday was a huge disappointment with Stricker - it must be said he really does seem to sometimes struggle in the wind as he did earlier this year when blowing up in the final round of the Bob Hope. At least Chris Wood is still in a good position and is playing much the same as he did last year - when he went
R1 52nd 6 back
R2 22nd 6 back
This year
R1 51st 6 back
R2 22nd 5 back
Lets hope he continues the trend and emulate last years top 5 |
17 July 09.42
Things are looking up - Turnberry is baring its teeth and Gerry declined to bail out the two businesses last night! Looking closely at the betting and what will be going on with the weather I will be having my first in-running play on Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano. He finished 2nd last week at Loch Lomond and has a habit of maintaining his form - earlier this season he had 3 runner-up finishes on the bounce and at -1 he probably won't be far off the lead when he tees off - £20 win 250/1 and £30 top 5 27/1 on Betfair. |
16 July 21.00
What a disappointing day - not necessarily on the golf front but at 8am the childminder rang - suspected swine flu - so I end up looking after our 3 year old all day and don't watch as much as a single putt from Turnberry. Maybe a blessing in disguise although Stricker has had a really good start. Oh well - time to watch Gerrys Big Decision (not that he has made any!) - those Mexican pigs have a lot to answer for! |
15 July 23.23
I can't wait til tomorrow morning for the Open to start - I feel like a big kid and its the only big sporting event that gets me really excited these days.One last silly bet for a top 10 was s few quid on Yuta Ikeda at 125/1 Extrabet - crazy price for the young Japanase player who was Junior World Champion and World Collegiate Champion and also won a Major in Japan in the last month.
I thought I had better give a quick summary of my bets in place
Steve Stricker £100 ew 80/1 1/4 5
Brandt Snedeker £50 ew 150/1 1/4 7
Rafa Echenique £20 ew 400/1 1/4 5
Richard Green £30 ew 150/1 1/4 5
Martin Laird £10 ew 500/1 1/4 5
Chris Wood £100 win 600/1 £100 top 10 22/1
Stephen Ames £100 top 10 12/1
Yuta Ikeda £20 top 10 125/1
Total invested £740 |
15 July 11.08
One really has to be careful not to get carried away but so many bookmakers offering so many special offers for the Open and digging away trying to find any value can be a bit tricky - however I have unearthed one more player. Stephen Ames is 12/1 to finish in the top 10 at Centrebet and Bet365 - he really shouldn't be this price and working out his odds as a direct reflection of his outright price is flawed. His top 10 strike rate is roughly 20% - this is also borne out in the Majors he has played - 30 starts and 6 top 10's including 2 in Opens, given that he was also 10th in his last start the US Open and his ability to play in wind then he really shouldn't be 12/1 - £100 for me. |
14 July 13.29
OK some more information on why I am so keen on Chris Wood playing well. We all know what happened at Birkdale last year when he was 5th and leading amateur and all the comparisons to Justin Rose - and he has come out in the last year and proved he really is quite a young talent. I think we will always see the best of him around links courses as they simply suit his game where he needs to use his imagination and he seems to excel on the greens. This is not only borne out in last years Open result but wins in his amateur days at Saunton Sands,St Andrews and Conwy. He has some good recent knowledge of Turnberry having played 6 rounds in last years Amateur before losing out in the 3rd round of matchplay and his comment was "It has got to be one of my favourite golf courses that I have ever played." He has had some solid results since the tour returned to mainland Europe permanently including a 5th at Celtic Manor and 10th at the Irish Open and in both of these he beat Rory McIlroy who is so much shorter in price. Has he won a pro event yet - No, will he win one - Yes, can he win an Open - Possibly - put simply the price is too big and if he gets in contention he could prove to be a great trading price. |
14 July 10.14
I will be back this afternoon will full reasoning behined this bet but Chris Wood is a crazy price on Betfair for the Open (especially for trading purposes) and I will have £100 on the win at 600/1 with a view to trading out around the 10/1 mark. I will also be having £100 on the top 10 at 22/1 with Tote,Stan James,Bet365. |
13 July 20.39
I see no problem in playing up some of last weeks winnings on Snedeker by going in again, he is clearly over his rib injury with finishes of 5th and 2nd and whilst he has no links form to speak of he is clearly in great nick. WHen you consider he was 3rd in last years Masters and 9th in the US Open then the price if 150/1 paying 7 places at Boyles and Paddy almost seems too good to be true - £50 ew for me |
13 July 09.18
Back to form this week with Snedeker finishing t2nd the £75 at 13/1 meant a nice payday and I was nearly there with Ferrie as well who sadly just missed out on a place by finishing as the 5th top GB & Ire!!
Busy day today - off to Newton Abbot for HBI and our big promotional day - don't forget to enter our competition to win a free years subscription - click here
Will be back with further thoughts on the Open tonight and tomorrow - clearly Stricker on form and the 80/1 looks good! |
11 July 13.02
I seriously considered Martin Laird this week back in his homeland - but decided it he would be rather an unknown quantity - he is proving so far that he can adjust! This weeks course is entirely different to next weeks Open at Turnberry but I think Laird could be up to the task - whatever happens the 500/1 at Skybet and BlueSquare is too big to resist - £10 ew for me. |
11 July 09.20
It could well be a case of sods law this week after a poor run and introducing this blog instead of tipping directly I put up three golfers - Ferrie is currently top GB player at the cut,Hallberg opened well with a 68 to stand 8th and Snedeker is 10th after round 2 was washed out yesterday - I believe they are planning to play 36 holes on Sunday.
A busy few days on the HBI front as we are sponsoring four races at Newton Abbot on Monday - if you want to win a years subscription worth £1000 ckick here
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9 July 20.45
It was three years ago that I sat down and looked closely at the BBC Sports Peronailty award and came to a conclusion that the books had overlooked one person who had a chance of becoming World Champion in their discipline - that was Zara Phillips and she duly went on to win both and we were rewarded at 66/1 & 80/1. Well I have been looking very closely over the last week and think I have found another ripe candidate - step forward Jessica Ennis.
One thing to note is that the Athletics World Championship in Berlin will be on the BBC and Ennis will be heavily featured having missed out on the Olympics last year with a career threatening ankle injury - so there's the big sob story! She has come back this season with huge promise and holds the world best result for the heptathlon and is breaking PB's left right and centre - she has even had to change her take off foot in the long jump to protect her ankle - and thats akin to learning to write with the other hand!
Ennis's chances are looking good - with World Championship silver medallist Lyudmila Blonska kicked out of the sport for failing a second drugs test, last summer's Olympic silver medallist Hyleas Fountain unable to qualify through the American trials, and 2008 world champion Carolina Kluft announced today she will definitely not compete. There are still a couple of athletes to fear but I can't see her going off bigger than 3/1 for the event and built into that price is the fact that anything can happen in a heptathlon.
So who is the main competition -
Jenson Button is a worthy favourite but it didn't help Hamilton last year and there is still an outside chance he could lose the World Champs.
Andy Murray I think blew any real chance he had by not winning Wimbledon - OK he still has a chance to win the US Open the final grand slam of the year but I really don't think he is very popular with Joe Public.
Mark Cavendish - I simply think any cyclist will need an Olympic year to stand a chance.
A Cricketer - if England win the Ashes with someone putting in a stellar performance then they stand a very good chance - I just can't see it
A Golfer - if someone wins the Open from the UK then they will stand a good chance but you would be better off simply backing them to win the Open!
There are other protagonists but I think Ennis IF she wins in Berlin will be a top candidate - she has a great personality and the price in my opinion is wrong - I had £100 at 100/1 over the last week and the best price is now 66/1 at Ladbrokes - at this stage I would still be happy to stake £100 at 40/1 and above. Best prices Here
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8 July 14.56
Well our tipster at HBI has just had a stunning result in the 2.00 Newmarket advising a big bet of £300 ew at 20/1 on Total Gallery and the horse has won very comfortably meaning a profit of £7500!!! Simply click here to join and start winning! |
7 July 14.50
The player I have been waiting to back for the Scottish Open is Kenneth Ferrie - and he hit the headlines this morning in Open qualifying by launching an attack on the Open organisers for the pin position on 18 which caused him to bogey the final hole. In the end it was a bit academic as he missed out narrowly again - much as he did on Sunday in France, however it clearly maintains his upturn in form. Ferrie has had a dire start to the year back in Europe having lost his PGA card last year yet recently there have been encouraging signs especially with his 6th in France. His form at Loch Lomond is very solid and I will have £50 ew at 70/1 Stan James for the top GB & Ireland market where he has twice been 4th in 5 outings. Whilst a win is unlikely the 300/1 at Extrabet is too big and I have duly placed £15 on that. |
7 July 10.25
Having looked at this weeks golf there are three players that are worth investing in. Whilst I was going to concentrate on the Nationwide Tour and the bigger events this weeks Nationwide event is well worth swerving - an event in just its second year, a pro-am over two different courses with most of the players having had a week off - no thanks.
Looking first at the Champions Tour - Gary Hallberg looks of interest at 100/1 Ladbrokes, he was 2nd here last season in his 4th Champions Tour event when he was the best putter in the field in putts per round. Interestingly he was top for PPR the week before that 2nd place last year and guess what - he was top last time out at En Joie for PPR - exactly the same pattern as last season. This stat really does seem to be the key to his game and I will be having £25 ew.
Moving onto this weeks PGA event at the John Deere Classic - there is a player that IF he has recovered from injury could well be a massive price. Brandt Snedeker injured his ribs after the Masters and took 2 months off and returned to form last week with a 5th place in a much stronger field. This really is a poor field and Snedeker will be very happy to have qualified for the Open with his finish last week. As for the bet I will have £50 on the win at 66/1 Extrabet and £75 the top 5 which is 13/1 including ties at the same firm or that price for the top 6 at Stan James.
I also have a bet for the Scottish Open - one of my favourite events of the year with a top class field - happy memories of Havret beating Mickelson in a play-off! but I am still awaiting a bit more news before pulling the trigger. |
5 July 16.50
It should be a fascinating last round at the AT&T with Woods and Kim battling it out but with low and high scores possible on the Congressional course I wonder if anyone can come from off the pace and set a clubhouse target - Imada could be interesting at 300/1+ on Betfair as he has shot some good final rounds in the past including a 66 here to finish 5th back in 2005 -probably worth a cheeky £10 |
4 July 19.00
Just looking at the Open odds again and looking at who is hitting form at the right time and who has performed with credit in the past and I cannot overlook Richard Green - whilst he is not blessed with the strongest of nerve then again neither was Lucas Glover!! At 150/1 Tote I will be having £30 ew to add to the £100 ew Stricker 80/1 and £20 ew Echenique 400/1 |
3 July 14.00
It is with a tinge of sadness I write this but things will be changing at Sportsbettingindex over the next few weeks. It has been a really rough ride over the last 12 months and whilst we have lost a lot of points the overall figure is over £50,000 profit to recommended stakes over the last 5 years, however it has become apparent to myself that I have lost my edge on the week in week out grind of tournament golf. I have been analysing everything over the past few months and have seen where I do well and where I do badly. From now on I will concentrate on the Majors/WGC events and the Nationwide Tour and these will be done in the form of a Blog/diary as and when these events occur - it will also allow me time to look at other sports and special events such as Athletics, SPOTY where I have also done well in the past. The site has a new look which concentrates on this blog, odds comaparison and an expanded section on bookmakers, plus close links with my new business venture www.horsebettingindex.com which has had a phenomenal start. |
2 July 18.00
Looking at those going well in France this week I see Rafa Echenique who had that fabulous finish in Germany last week and who I have touted many times as being a future star and to be honest I couldn't put you off a little dabble on him for the Open at Totes 400/1 - he reminds me a lot of Andres Romero and we know how close he came to winning the Open a few years ago. Talking of the Open, my only other tip which was given on here is Steve Stricker at 80/1 and whilst that has gone I really can't see the 66/1 at William Hill lasting when you consider he has been 7th and 8th the last 2 years, has a win this year and a 6th at the Masters - for the best prices click here > |
