31 January 11.38
The few picks I have had this week have been by and large very poor - Rollins was frustrating yesterday having got into the fringes of contention and I have just had £40 on Howell III to finish top 5 at 17/1 Betfair which I think is a bit big. My week has been saved by trading the New Zealand Open in running for a profit of £380 but hope Rollins or Howell can nick a place and its back to the drawing board for next week. On a plus note HBI maintained its profitable run - 11 months on the bounce now having recovered from a large deficit in January to just finish in profit. |
27 January 14.19
Right then - reasonings behind this weeks selections. First of all - John Rollins - last year before the Reno-Tahoe Open he was top of my list - coming into form and with great course form ( he had been second the year before) - however I wavered thinking 33/1 was maybe a bit skinny and he duly won so I promised myself I wouldn't let that happen again with him. He had a pretty good finish at the SBS ending up in mid division and then improved with every round at the Sony before swerving the Hope which is probably a blessing. He was 2nd here at Torrey Pines last season when out of form,was 4th in 2006 and 8th in 2002 and from the horses mouth he clearly likes it here -
"Yeah, I like this place. Like I said, it's either kind of all or nothing for me here. I just like the way the golf course sets up. A lot of the tee shots, they fit my eye and the way I like to shape the ball. You know coming in here that typically the scores aren't going to be really low, and I like that kind of golf. I like courses where you don't have to go out and shoot 25- and 30-under par. I like it to where it's a premium on hitting the ball in the fairway. You know, if you get out and shoot a couple under par, then you've played a good round of golf, and that's what the South Course gives you here.
Other than just fitting my eye and being comfortable with what the golf course is, I just enjoy playing here."
I might have another look at the event at the cut when players have played both courses and the evidence of the heavy rain they have had is there to see.
Moving onto Qatar - I was interested in backing Anders Hansen again but at the price I will have to pass and settled mainly for Ross McGowan. He played some really impressive golf towards the end of last season including his win in Madrid and 2nd in Dubai and he caught my eye last week when 27th as he had missed both previous cuts in Abu Dhabi and he has more rock solid form in Qatar. He has been playing a lot out in Dubai this month with Rory McIlroy with new clubs and he said last week " I'm now in Abu Dhabi and looking forward to the week - the course is set up very tough in comparison to previous years so I think it will be a really good test of golf. After that it's on to Qatar and I love the course there so am hoping for a good week in Doha "
My other main pick is Paul Broadhurst who has a lot of good rounds under his belt on the Doha course (best finish being 2nd in 2006) and he often gets off to a quick start round here. He started off the season well in Joburg and whilst I don't think he will be able to sustain a challenge and win in the markets I have picked he could reward support. It looks like the late starters might get a break with the weather with the wind dying down though that remains to be seen and I have had a little bet on round one leader to be Richard Green at 66/1 - a bit like Broadhurst he plays the same courses well year in year out - sadly I was only allowed £5 ew but wouldn't want to take a lower price. |
26 January 18.21
First bet for the New Zealand Open goes to veteran Craig Parry who simply loves The Hills course - much in evidence by the fact that he has been 4th in both appearances. He likes going back to NZ where he won the NZ Open in 02 on a different course and whilst he is getting on a bit he has a good record in these co-sanctioned events and it was only just over two years ago that he won the Australian Open - the 50/1 at Aussie Sportingbet is a bit big and I have had £40 ew. |
26 January 15.12
Another quick post - for the Farmers Insurance take any 40/1 you can get on what will be this weeks "steamer" John Rollins - had £30 ew and then £100 at average of 45 on the exchanges |
26 January 13.13
A bit pushed for time today with the delay on the PGA tour and prices only just coming out for that plus the NZ Open starts in a little over 24 hours! so just quickly the picks for Qatar
Ross McGowan £50 ew 80/1 + £20 win 85 Betfair
Paul Broadhurst £10 ew 200/1 & £2.75 ew 175/1 Rd 1 leader + £20 ew 55/1 Top English + £10 win 310 Betfair |
24 January 15.17
Although this week has been profitable it has been very frustrating and very much a case of what could have been with Horne tying for the first round lead,then Michael Hendry finishing tied 10th in New Zealand (huge profit of £5 there lol!), then today Hansen and Oosthuizen just came up shy. There are still two rounds to go in the Bob Hope and the plays on McNeill and Ogilvie are still in with a shout and I have added two more small bets on players who are playing the Palmer course for both rounds - Palmer £20 65 and Dufner £10 150 on Betfair. |
23 January 13.56
Kiss of death from me to Richard Finch as he bombed out today and Horne has tumbled rapidly down the leaderboard whilst Anders Hansen has moved the right way and has a squeak of a place. I have had a bet on new dad Louis Oosthuizen who fired a round of 64 on Sunday last year to finish 2nd and if he can do so again he could get in the mix - £20 ew 100/1 !/5 3 and £5 Betfair 200. |
22 January 17.09
A quick bet in Abu Dhabi at the cut before I head out for the evening - Richard Finch was 4th here in 08 (he can also boast a 4th in Qatar in 06) so can clearly play in the desert - he currently sits at -7 and there is a bit of value in the top 5 and ties price at Extrabet at 16/1 so have had £25 + £10 win 280 Betfair |
22 January 14.07
Nothing doing on the skiing front with Heel finishing well down the pack - I think its time to back off on the skiing (apart from the Olympics) as the same pattern is emerging as in previous seasons - I seem to do well early doors - finding value as the form settles down but then mistakes are few and far between.
On the golf front - hopefully the Bob Hope will continue as planned today and I have had a small bet on Betfair on Joe Ogilvie who shot a great first round.has been 2nd here before and played well in the poor last round conditions when Hoffman won shooting the lowest round - £25 50 Betfair |
21 January 21.32
Stop press - train carries on with journey - woohoo Keith Horne ties for lead in Abu Dhabi. It was a sweaty few moments after Poulter holed a 70 footer on his last hole for birdie to get to -7 and Bland also got to that number, Horne got to -7 with 4 to play and in the end had to hole a 12 footer at the last for the par and tie resulting in a £1620 payday. I hope that he continues the good form and maybe some of the other markets I bet him in come to fruition.
Onto tomorrows action and we have the mens Super G from Kitzbuehl and I do think Werner Heel is overpriced - on his return from injury last week he was 4th in the Downhill in Wengen and as he won two World Cup Super Gs last season I don't really get the price - £20 22/1 and £30 21/4 podium - William Hill |
20 January 21.04
At the moment I could stop a train - Martin Laird off to a shocker in the Bob Hope. What really annoys me is that I had three players on my list - one of them was Heath Slocum but I was so annoyed with Extrabet who opened 125 then went 100 - everytime I tried to bet they cut the odds - much like they did with Laird - incredibly frustrating and not very ethical in my opinion - and it annoyed me so much that I ended up not backing Slocum so there's your winner this week! As an aside the other one of my list was George McNeill and seeing Slocum getting off to a flyer I had to have £25 at 100 on Betfair - and sure enough he is off to a good start as well!! |
20 January 14.23
I had a couple of hours free and had a look at the New Zealand PGA Championship and believe I have spotted a bit of a rick from the Australian books that have priced this up - Centrebet and Sportingbet - in the shape of Kiwi Michael Hendry. He was the runaway winner of the NZ order of merit last year with numerous wins and seems to have transferred that form onto the Australian tour in the smaller events. Before Christmas he was 3rd in the Western Australian Open, 3rd Queensland PGA, and 5th in the New South Wales PGA. He then came out this year in the Victorian Open and finished 9th. Whilst this is a stronger event he really shouldn't be 150/1 - have had £25 ew and £25 top 10 12/1. |
20 January 10.45
Back to Abu Dhabi and my only other play of the week is on Keith Horne who had probably his best ever finish last week when 2nd in Joburg and returns to Abu Dhabi for the first time since he played in the inaugural one in 2006 when he led by two shots after round one. With positive memories and in solid form I have backed him small in a variety of markets - really surprised he is not bigger on Betfair.
Outright - £7.50 ew 225/1
Top ROW - £16 ew 45/1
Top 10 & ties - £25 18/1
Rd 1 leader - £2.50 ew 200/1, £12.50 ew 150/1,£5 150 |
19 January 18.15
With the weather forecast looking poor and with 4 courses in the rotation there seems little point in getting further involved with the Bob Hope. As far as Martin Laird is concerned he is a great young prospect - he won his maiden event on the wide resort fairways of Summerlin where past Bob Hope winners Trahan,Campbell and Hoffman also have a great record. He has already shown some good form in the SBS - when 4th and being top rookie on the course and sensibly swerved the Sony which would not have suited his game. He has played the Hope twice and made the cut both times but he is a much better player now and in 09 it was the only cut he made in a 10 tournament stint - it is always worth noting when a player makes a cut at a venue when he is playing poorly.
Looking at Abu Dhabi - basically it will probably be won by one of the market leaders but its hardly worth backing them all to find out which one. I have one player I want to back in a few specialist markets but more of that tomorrow - in the meantime I do think Anders Hansen is a big price - he was 14/1 last week and missed the cut as defending champion so he has been pushed right out. When you look at last week he missed the cut on the mark with a double bogey at his last hole (maybe he didn't fancy hanging around for the weekend!). It was clear he was rusty with the putter having struggled to play any golf over the Christmas period in a frozen Europe so maybe it wasn't such a great shock. As a winner of two PGA titles at Wentworth he can clearly win a big event, and towards the end of last season was 2nd in the Mercedes,5th in Singapore and back to back 3rds in South Africa - hardly the form that merits quotes of 95 on Betfair (£40) or 14/1 the top 5 (£60). |
18 January 21.11
Have spent a long day going over and over the Bob Hope with a fine tooth comb - especially as it starts Wednesday and this weeks big wallet buster is Martin Laird - more on why tomorrow (though it isn't rocket science!)
£20 ew 45/1
£80 ew 40/1
£75 win 44 Betfair |
18 January 09.31
Feel free to hammer Centrebet on their 100/20 quote for Alvaro Quiros in Abu Dhabi - I was allowed £1 and £3 and will be closing my account!! |
16 January 19.56
Not a great day on the skiing with neither man troubling the judge and in South Africa Otto has gone really well - sadly Schwatrzel has gone a damn site better and the win only bet on Otto looks stuffed and he will probably finish top 5 knowing my recent luck!
Looking at Hawaii - a long way to go for Gay and his steady driving seems to have deserted him but looking at the leaderboard people seem happy to lay past champion Goydos who was slow to get into stride yet shot a 63 yesterday and often goes low back to back so £45 90 on Betfair pour moi |
14 January 20.27
Quick word of warning about tomorrows Super Combined - Peter Fill does not take part so don't bet him on Betfair who will not refund stakes on non participants. |
14 January 13.00
Following the training runs for the downhill in Wengen this week and it is interesting to see Andrej Jerman fastest in final training - the last time he did that was Bormio 2 weeks ago and he went on to win the race - £30 10/1 Hills. The other one I have spotted is Peter Fill who has returned from injury this week and always goes well at Wengen - keen to make up for lost time I have had £20 at 14/1 for the Downhill and £20 15/1 for the Super Combined which takes place tomorrow |
13 January 21.39
Managed to get a few quid on my final selection - Matthew Carvell in the Joburg Open. The young lad from Johannesburg has just turned pro having just finished playing college golf in the States and qualified for his local tour event by winning the qualifier shooting -4 on the West Course. That probably wouldn't be quite enough to tempt me but in his last amateur event the Central Gauteng Open in November he won by 8 shots - he opened with a 78 in difficult conditions and then shot 64,69,66 - all played on this weeks host East course. A tall order but worth a few quid - allowed £10 50/1 top 10 so took another £10 42 on Betfair,£10 100 top 5 Betfair and added £50 at 1000 for trading should he surprise all!! |
13 January 15.29
OK quick list of reasons - Murless I guess is obvious with his good course form,Siem is a player who should win more often than he does and I am a bit worried how he will play with the new grooves considering his wayward driving but his win at Houghton was on a very similar track and he was much improved towards the end of last season. Otto is very much hit or miss but he has a great record round here - winning as an amateur,finishing 3rd in the inaugural Joburg Open and in 08 he qualified for the Open playing here in IFQ so he has plenty of fond memories. At least he has won at this level in Italy and won in November in Namibia - 190 just seems too big. I do have one other but am still waiting to get matched. |
13 January 10.01
Glad I got in early on Gay!! Anyway - onto Joburg - I have been over and over the field and to be honest no bookmaker prices interest me but I have bet three players on Betfair - more on why a bit later as I am busy looking at the skiing.
Otto £35 190
Siem £25 160
Murless £15 250 |
11 January 21.20
Right then the reasons for Gay - first of all he finally won a PGA event in 2008 and then last year was one of only seven players to win twice on tour. The Sony has been won in recent years by players who have already blown away the cobwebs at Kapalua,who are multiple winners on tour and who are basically short but accurate - Gay fits the bill there. He has pretty good course form - his best when 5th last season having made his first appearance at Kapalua - an interesting quote from him -
"I've always loved coming to this golf course, but I've really never been ready. I thought it would be good this year coming over a week early and playing on Maui, and hopefully that's going to happen. It did today...I got a Top-10 here once, and I had some okay tournaments here. I've always been kind of close, and I always felt like I could do well here. But like I said, I've never really been ready because I don't play a lot of golf in the off-season. You've really got to take the time to get away and get ready for the season. I was looking forward to obviously playing in Maui, anyways, but I thought it was also going to really help me here this week....there's no comparison between here and Kapalua. Kapalua is long and wide open, big, slopey greens, and this course is much tougher to hit fairways. Accuracy is a lot more important here."
That leads me onto his form last week where he was 1st for DA,3rd for scrambling and 2nd for putts per round - all the things he needs for this week and he has always putted well at Waialae. All in all it adds up to a potentially big week for Gay and the 50/1 is just too big. |
11 January 18.40
After much soul searching and going over and over my results and the PGA tour results I can offer up a bet for the Sony Open in Hawaii - will post a detailed explanation later - Brian Gay £110 ew 50/1 and £80 @ 60 on Betfair |
10 January 11.00
Been quiet and buried my head in research for the last few days - as well as being buried in by the snow! Trying to avoid betting whilst I get things clear in my head but just noticed Skybet are betting on Laird to make the Ryder Cup - if he carries on like he is this week he could get in via the wrold points list and 25/1 could be generous so have had £40 |
8 January 22.40
Well what a crap start to the golfing year as both players in South Africa miss the cut - something somewhere has gone dreadfully wrong over the last 18 months - I think trying to look smart has left me looking stupid. |
6 January 14.15
Not often I get caught out when someone goes a bigger price but Stan James have gone 45/1 Van den Berg for the top ROW so have added another £20 ew.
I have been looking at the weather forecast which says it should be windy and testing - much like last years final round and the man who shot the lowest round was Mark Murless with an impressive 64 to finish 7th. On closer examination of his form in 2007 and 2008 he played in the co-sanctioned Joburg Open at the beginning of each year - in 08 he led after rounds1,2 and 3 before finishing 5th and in 07 was 2nd after round 1 and held onto 4th. On this basis I have had a number of small bets
£2 ew 300/1 1/4 5 Tote
£35 win 290 Betfair
£11 top 10 28/1 Tote
£25 top 10 22/1 Extrabet
£2.50 ew rd 1 leader 200/1 Bet365 & £10 ew 175/1 Stan James
£10 ew top ROW 150/1 Stan James |
5 January 13.15
I think it might be fairly well known that Van Den Berg grew up at East London and this is the course where he learnt to play golf so it is quite safe to say he knows this course better than any other player on show this week. One has to be cautious when using this sort of information - bascally has he translated this knowledge into decent tournament performances on the course? - the answer is yes. Last year he was 9th here when it was just a Sunshine tour event and back in 2000 he led an event going into the final round before finishing 2nd. His form before Christmas was OK - he led the Alfred Dunhill after round one in a stronger field finally finishing 12th (the 4th best South African on show). I do think he is a bit of a "nervy" character when near the lead - hence the different plays in different markets and I will probably use the Betfair win bet to trade should he get close. |
5 January 10.49
Right - first golf bet of 2010 is Ulrich Van Den Berg in the African Open - will post reasons in a bit but I have had the following bets
£37.50 ew 100/1 Tote/Ladbrokes
£35 win 145 average Betfair
£20 ew 35/1 top ROW Bet365
£20 ew Rd 1 leader 75/1 Skybet |
3 January 23.34
No further reply from Centrebet - apart from an apology for sending me the wrong email! Anyway - as I have looked for quite a while at the tennis this week I kind of feel obliged to have a bet but will feel my way slowly and will start with a couple of small bets for Brisbane in the shape of Baghdatis £25 @16/1 and Melzer £15 33/1. Will be back tomorrow maybe with the first golf bet of 2010. |
2 January 22.58
Will keep this going as this is quite frankly a joke from a so-called big bookmaker
Account number: 83232 (not mine)
Dear Martin (not me)
Thank you for your email.
First I would like to apologise for the service and time frame it took
to reply to your email.
In some cases we get a high influx of emails that come through and at
times it can take a while to answer client emails and yours was one of
these.
At any given time we can have up to 200 emails to answer and that will
take a considerable amount of time to answer.
In saying that we at Centrebet do value your clientele and would like to
offer you a goodwill gesture free bet of 1000NOK.
We would also like to give you another email address you can email and
those emails will get answered in a timely manner for you if this is
what you would like to do ,the alternative email address for you to
email is complaints@centrebet.com
Can you please return an email if you wish to reopen your account as the
free bet is waiting on the account for you.
If you have any queries please do not hesitate to contact us.
Kind regards,
Peter
Centrebet Supervisor
To which I replied
Dear Sirs
After a really serious complaint I really cannot believe you have responded
in the fashion below
a) you quote someone elses account number and therefore address me as
Martin!!
b) you do not answer my question but offer me 1000NOK whatever that might be
I am sorry but this is an absolute joke - what an awful way to run a company
Ian Richards |
2 January 14.22
I really wanted to start off the year on a positive happy note but the email I have just had to send points out all that is bad about this game
Dear Sirs
I thought Centrebet was a thoroughly professional international bookmaker however you have just stooped to
the lowest possible behaviour by any bookmaker - declining a bet and cutting the odds.
I just tried to place two small wagers on the Brisbane tennis outright
Mens - Llodra £10 125 - declined and price cut to 80/1
Womens - Petrova £30 30/1 - declined and price cut to 22/1
I believe you owe me an explanation.
Regards
Ian Richards |
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