February 28th 21.24 I guess Crane was an easy pick this week - in solid form this season, his accurate game has been really solid and adding in his 12th and 3rd placed fnishes here at PGA National on a course that clearly suits. He plays the same courses well year in year out and at 33/1 had to be a bet. I have added a couple of other players today and have a few more once matched tomorrow. I nearly made the mistake of not backing Wilson when he won in Phoenix and I wonder if DA Points can do the same thing. Although he won't have the "pleasure" of Bill Murray for company he will be playing at home and was 9th here closing with a 65 in 2009. It is one of those just in case bets so just the £30 at 100. Next up is someone who has been in brilliant form this year so far - Jimmy Walker. What really interests me about Walker is that he is playing courses really well that he hasn't before - when you look at his form this year - 2011 finish last one Sony Open - mc/61/32/mc/4 Farmers Insurance - mc/mc/mc/29 Phoenix Open - mc/24/49 AT&T - mc/55/mc/9 Northern Trust - mc/39/70/37/4 That really is an impressive improvement and shows quite a turnaround in form - largely based around a good scrambling and putting game. He has played some really good rounds at PGA National - in his first vist he was 4th after round one and bearing in mind two of his Nationwide wins were on the really tough Panama and Le Triomphe courses the 125 average I got last night was quite a surprise. Sadly it was only for £25 but I have added £30 e/w at 80/1 today. Back tomorrow February 28th 16.06 A very frustrating finish to the week yesterday - JJ Henry got to 3rd place and then proceeded to drop four shots in his last four holes whilst in Panama Sam Saunders was 5th when he double bogeyed his 14th and ended up two shots out of a place! All my homework has been done for the Honda Classic and I was lucky enough to get £75 on main pick Ben Crane at 45 average on the exchanges early doors and then have been happy to take the 33/1 - £75 e/w. February 27th 11.02 First of all this morning let me let you know a bit more about why I like Ryan Moore for the Masters. He played twice as an amateur in 2003 he made the cut and then in 2005 he finished 13th and was impressively first in the all round stats for the week! Last year he played for the first time in five years and was the best putter all week clsoing with his best round at Augusta of 68 to finish 14th. I think with that experience under his belt and a clear affinity for the place he will go well this year. Back to this week and there are still outside chances of places in Mayakoba and Panama - in any case at least it won't be a late finish. Looking at next week we only have the Honda Classic and the Bogota Open - maybe more books will be brave enough to price up the Nationwide tour as they will have little else to do!! February 25th 21.08 It's not that long to go before the US Masters and with the top two protagonists Woods and Mickelson out of sorts its time to look down the list for a few bets. I already have Kuchar e/w at 80/1 which I am still happy with but tonight I have added Ryan Moore £50 e/w at 125/1 and £50 win 180 average - moore tomorrow as to why! February 25th 13.16 Just a quick post as I am busy researching the Honda Classic next week - in Mayakoba I guess things could look a lot healthier but it's early days whilst in rain delayed Panama all three picks are going really well. I have also been looking at various betting blogs this week to see if there are any of interest and I have added The Portfolio Investor on the links page - take a look - some interesting stuff written by Rowan. February 23rd 15.21 This week sees the belated return of the Nationwide Tour having dropped the co-sanctioned events with Australia and New Zealand which have happened in past years, instead we kick off in Panama for the 8th staging of an event at the Panama course. One thing is apparent when looking at past winners is the ability to win a professional event and especially within the larger geographical "area", plus the ability to play tough courses well as every year this event is one of the hardest on tour. Firstly I have a couple of small picks - Sam Saunders showed with a 15th place finish at Pebble Beach he can play good quality golf and would love to emulate grandfather Arnold Palmer - one of his first pro wins was the Panama Open - £20 ew 66/1. Second up is Sebastian Fernandez - the Argentinian has shot some low rounds here in the past and in 2010 won in both Paraguay and the Peru Open at Los Incas (where past Panama winner Scott Dunlap had also won) - again £20 ew at 70/1. My main bet though is on James Hahn who enters his second seaon on tour and looks to build on his three top five finishes in 2010. He started off on the Canadian Tour and in his second season on that tour in 2009 he secured two wins including one in Mexico. He has stated he will feel more comfortable this year having gained a good knowledge of the courses he will be playing and being a good ball striker this weeks tough course should suit. I have managed to get £40 ew on at an average of 75/1 and have agreed with James via email that if he wins or places I will donate 10% of any winnings to his charity and I hope if you win any money you will do the same - click here for details February 23rd 11.51 This is the fifth renewal of the Mayakoba Classic and the ages of the winners shows us that we need to look towards the more experienced pro’s - Fred Funk (51), Brian Gay (37), Mark Wilson (35) and Cameron Beckman (40). Gay is the only first time winner in that list and all had past experience of the course – with the obvious exception of inaugural winner Funk! The course seems to suit the shorter more accurate players and don’t worry about exceptional recent form as all four winners had just missed their last cut. JJ Henry - I think everyone and his dog is on JJ this week judging by the sea of blue on the odds comparison sites and the fact that 20% of the money matched on Betfair is on him - there must be some very lopsided books about. He has been in terrific form this year - possibly spurred on by the fact that on his first hole of the season at the Bob Hope he holed out for eagle from the fairway. I get the impression that he feels like he has "wasted" the last few years having got on the Ryder Cup team in 2006 and he seems determined to have a good season. His course form is solid having finished 2nd on his debut two years ago and I wouldn't be surprised to see him go one better. Joe Durant - certainly ticks all the right boxes, the right age, a tour winner, 3rd for Driving Accuracy this season and great course form including finishing 2nd to Beckman last year. The reason for the small bet is the doubt over his putting especially ander pressure. Instead of going for the likes of Toms,Kelly and Weekley I decided to go for three big priced outsiders where a place from one would be the same as trying to get the winner from the three shot priced ones. Jeff Maggert - funnily enough if the World Matchplay allowed past winners to play Maggert wouldn't be in Mexico this week! At this late stage in his career he still pops up in the frame from time to time including last year in the John Deere when 3rd. His last win was only four years ago at Southwind a course where Gay and Toms have both won. A solid 20th on his debut last season and he still showed he could go low when shooting 62 at Monterrey a few weeks ago. Billy Mayfair - the veteran put his putting woes to one side at the Q school in the Fall and won that quite comfortably. He has a great record at Harbour Town - the course I think is most similar to this and was 23rd on his debut here last year shooting a 65 in the second round. He popped up last year when 3rd at the equally weak Turning Stone event and has already shown this season he can still play when 13th at Torrey Pines. Woody Austin - I admit this one is a bit of a hunch but he had a 4th place on tour last year and was 7th in the similar Puerto Rico Open. This is his debut at Mayakoba but I just get this feeling he is going to go well as he has won at Southwind and been 2nd at Harbour Town in the past. We will soon find out as he is first to tee off tomorrow. February 23rd 10.17 Last couple of picks for Mayakoba are below - back later this morning with full preview Billy Mayfair - £30 win 170 + £25 ew 125/1 Woody Austin - £30 win 140 + £25 ew 125/1 All the best prices are available here February 22nd 17.32 There doesn't seem to be much money around on Betfair today and after a change of tact I am waiting for some outsider orders to be filled. I really liked the looks of Kelly and possibly Toms and Weekley but the prices are shocking so concentrated further down the list where most winners have come from before. I will give two small ones now and two more tomorrow - off out for the evening and hope there will be more money around tomorrow Joe Durant £20 ew 90/1 Jeff Maggert £30 win 150, £12 top 5 33/1 £18 top 10 14/1 February 22nd 12.48 Prices are slow in coming out for the Mayakoba but I have had my main bet for the week - I will add bets as I do them and then do a full preview later JJ Henry - price will be slashed - I got £75 win 40/1 average, £35 ew 35/1 and £40 ew 33/1. February 21st 18.48 OK OK I wan't going to have a bet on the matchplay but whilst waiting - probably til tomorrow - for Mayakoba prices I had a glance through the prices of the 64 players and was rather surprised to see Martin Laird at 150/1 with Ladbrokes so snapped up £20 e/w for a bit of interest as the course should suit, is in good form and seems to play well in the desert - will probably be hammered by Molinari! February 21st 10.13 A poor week in the end on the golf front and the profit for the year now stands at +£5030. This weeks golf sees the World Matchplay which I dilsike so chances are I won't be having a bet but the Mayakoba Classic looks great and we also see the return of one of my favourite tours - the Nationwide which kicks off in Panama. On other news FBI finished off the weekend with another winner so that was 6/6 - quite incredible and whilst we don't advocate betting in accumulators some people did and we have reports of customers winning £4k, £12k and one stood to win £100k though he hedged some back - probably quite sensibly!! I mentioned a Grand National horse I fancied - Vic Venturi - have had £60 ew 40/1 with 5 places - will explain why later but he runs on Wednesday and his price could well drop. February 19th 17.25 Our resiedent tipster Stephen on Football Betting Index had a stunning day today - 5/5 winners at 19/10, 9/4, 13/5. 5/2 and 6/5 !!!! Some customers even have accumulators on but have to wait til tomorrow as there were six bets for the weekend - I guess there will be a few sleepless nights!! February 19th 11.19 Woke up this morning to see Kruger had gone well and Karlberg wasn't too far back after the end of round two in India - however both are having a bad round three and are dropping back - have just added Prayad Marksaeng in running - £30 at 75 - will be in the clubhouse and finished whilst most will have to finish their third rounds tomorrow, and he is a class performer on his day February 18th 21.16 I have just been watching the Northern Trust and I am glad I was - seeing J B Holmes have a lucky chip in at the 16th and then play poorly up the 17th and still make birdie I decided to bail out a little and laid him at 5/1 average for about £300 and boy was I glad I did as he has just made a right pigs ear of the 18th! Over in India Karlberg is showing his love for the country and is bang in contention. It looks like it is going to be another "fun" weekend on the golf whilst those who know me - I have been working hard on the Grand National and should have a tip lined up for the weekend February 18th 09.30 I guess the start to the week has been about average with headline pick JB Holmes being one of the nine joint leaders in the States but main pick Hiratsuka in India is struggling. I have been going over the Ace Group Classic Champions tour event and have had a small bet on Joey Sindelar. He is yet to win since turning 50 mainly due to niggling injuries but he seems to have been at his best in the early Florida events especially with a run under his belt and he improved every round last week. He has a 13% top 5 strike rate so I have had £30 on that at 14/1 and just £10 on the win at 80/1. February 15th 20.32 That's me done for the day - been a busy last three days and time for a visit to the village hostelry!! Back tomorrow with thoughts on the minor tours. February 15th 18.57 All bets in place for the Northern Trust Open so time for a full preview and I have to say winners at the Riviera Club have been very predictable in recent years. 2010 - Steve Stricker - 2nd year before and 3rd in his latest start 2008/09 - Phil Mickelson - won two years running and had been 2nd in 2007 2007 - Charles Howell - twice runner-up already that year and 2nd here in 2004 2006 - Rory Sabbatini - 2nd the week before and 2nd here in 2002 2003/04 - Mike Weir won back to back So the key would seem to be - find someone with great course form and to seal the deal in top form already this season - hence my headline pick of JB Holmes yesterday. He has a great record on the West Coast swing and was 5th two weeks ago and in the last three appearances here has been 7th,6th and 3rd - hence he is a very confident pick. Rory Sabbatini is next up - he has been in pretty good form this season and comes to a course where he can boast a 1st,2nd,6th and 9th in eleven appearnaces so clearly can play the course well. So with five wins on the PGA tour already under his belt I am prepared to take him at 80/1 - £30 e/w + £35 at 85. YE Yang - I said the other week he improves on courses once he has played them and whilst he missed the cut on his debut at Riviera he was 15th last year. A solid 8th at the Phoenix where he was 2nd in the all round stats means I think he is ready to perform - £30 e/w 100/1 + £50 115 average. Andres Romero - fits neatly into the category of great course form - 5th and 3rd in the last two renewals - he likes the course saying this in 2010 " This is a good week to start playing good golf. After the last year I had last year, I think it's a good course. It suits me and my golf, my game, and luckily I started well." and it doesn't seem to matter if he comes here in poor form as he does this year - £20 ew 125/1 + £45 150 average. Last pick is a win only and on someone who owes me nothing this year - Mark Wilson - I really don't see why he should be the price he is on Betfair especially as he was 11th on his debut here when he putted really well - if he combines that with his great ball striking this year who knows! I have "reinvested" £50 at 115 average. February 15th 14.18 I have just finalised my bets for the Avantha Masters by adding a few more - Rikard Karlberg could well shine on his return to India where he won twice last year and at 90/1 was worth £20 e/w. I have also added Anirban Lahiri who was 3rd here in the Indian Open in 2009 and won last week on his home tour beating Randhawa into second by eight shots - have had £35 135 average, £20 top 5 22/1 and £35 top 10 12/1 - check out Extrabet. On the first round leader market - have had a little dabble on Rahil Gangjee who has a good record in early rounds at DLFand is first to tee off - £10 ew 100/1. I have just about finished getting my "team" together for the Northern Trust Open - back later with full preview. February 14th 20.26 Time to put some meat on the bones of the Avantha Masters picks and also introduce the main bet in that event. The Avantha Masters enters its second year as a co-sanctioned event at the DLF course, which was also the venue of the Indian Open in 2009 and the co-sanctioned Johnnie Walker Classic in 2008, add in the fact that it also hosts the DLF Masters on the Indian tour every year and there is quite a bit of course form to go on. My main bet is Tetsuji Hiratsuka who did me a favour when winning before Christmas in the Black Mountain Masters - that meant the Japanese tour member played in nine events in 2010 in Asia and won three and was third in a further two - including here! Although it is his first start of the year I haven't let that put me off as last year he was third on his seasonal bow at Suwan in Thailand and the year before that was 2nd. I think he is great value and have had £60 ew at 40/1 and £100 win at 40 on Betfair. Now for the three I nicked early prices on - firstly Bhullar - he won his first three events in India this year including one co-sanctioned by the Challenge Tour and whilst his course form isn't that great on the surface in the last three DLF Masters he has finished 2/1/4 - he will be well tipped up as some people have heard of him! Siddikur is not so well known but was the first Bangladeshi to win on the Asian Tour last year, and last week (a little bird tells me) he won an Asian development tour event by a massive twelve shots. He was 5th in the co-sanctioned event Bhullar won last month and also 5th in the Indian Open before Christmas so was way overpriced. Lastly is Jbe Kruger - a great young South African talent with plenty of top 5 finishes on the Asian Tour already - at this sort of price I would pick him every week. All the best prices here There will possibly be a few more bets plus round one leader but in til tomorrow I will leave you with my best bet for the Northern Trust Open - JB Holmes. I have had £50 ew 33/1 and £100 at 40 on Betfair - more on that tomorrow. February 14th 15.57 Afternoon - snaffling a little early value on the Avantha Masters - if you have a Ladbrokes acct - not sure how long will last - Bhullar 50/1, Kruger 100/1, Siddikur 150/1 - had £25 e/w on each one. February 13th 23.46 Good old DA Points makes it the third winner of the year for me - happy days! The new analysis is working well - off for a good nights rest and back tomorrow for the Northern Trust Open and Avantha Masters - hope some of you won a few quid! February 13th 12.35 Managed to get a bit back in Dubai by laying Strange and Fred Hed at lower but looking forward to a "fun" AT&T from Pebble today. I haven't changed my position since yesterday and will play it by ear later - a quick recap on who wins me money DA Points +£3700 on Betfair and £60 top 5 @ 16/1 Alex Cejka +£2200 on Betfair and +£410 top 5, +£225 top 10 Bill Lunde +£4500 on Betfair and £50 top 10 @ 13/1 I think I know what my preferred result would be lol - good luck tonight if you are on February 12th 12.54 Watching the leaders struggle a bit in Dubai I backed a few who were sitting in the clubhouse so I have a bit of interest in the morning - Fred Hed £20 @ 50, Gallacher £20 @ 80 and Strange £10 270 February 12th 10.19 Well the punt on Karlberg went astray but he did send me a nice message on Twitter saying he would get my bet money back!! - what a nice guy. I have adjusted a few things on Betfair so that I break even on all players and have Points at +£3700 and Lunde at +£4500 plus all the place bets at the books. In Australia Tiffany Joh has improved every day but will need something impressive later today to reach a place whilst in the Champions tour Goodes had an OK first round and is now half the price he was. February 10th 18.54 Just had a look through the Dubai betting and have had a bet on Rikard Karlberg to trade on Betfair. He shot -2 in his first competitive round of the year - a bit rusty on the front 9 with 2 bogeys but had 4 birdies on the back where he starts tomorrow. He won twice on the Asian tour last year and his 3rd in Singapore was really impressive as he beat Poulter, Jimenz and Kaymer - he certianly has a lot of potential and was happy to snap up all £60 at 690 with a view to laying a lot lower. February 10th 11.15 My last few bets for the week have now been placed - firstly one more for the AT&T - Alex Cejka. He has a habit of playing the same events well each year and last year he was 10th in this and then 8th at the US Open. I palced all my bets on Betfair - £10 win 220, £10 top 5 42 and £15 top 10 15/1. The last event for me to look at is the Allianz Championship which starts tomorrow and there definitely seems to be a trend where players continually do well in different Florida events. Mike Goodes won this in 2009 and was 7th the following week in Florida, then last year he was 4th in the first Florida event of the year before being 16th as defending champion. He had a solid start in Hawaii and at 100/1 is worth a small bet of £15 ew. My other pick is somewhat bigger in price and is Champions tour debutant Lee Rinker. He hasn't played much over the last eight years but turned up at Q school last year and was 2nd. He knew the course there in his home state of Florida and being a home player again this week I will give him a chance to suprise - £10 ew 250/1 February 9th 14.38 With six books pricing up the ANZ Ladies Masters I have dipped my toe in the wter with Tiffany Joh. A big young talent - she won the US Amateur public links two years running and won her first professional event on the Futures tour last year. She played here in 2005 as a young amateur scoring an albatross in round two enroute to a 13th placed finish - she came back the following year and went even better finishing one shot out of the playoff in 3rd. She finished a respectable 15th in the Aus Open last week and at 80/1 is worth a small punt - £20 e/w February 9th 11.49 Now that's out of the way it's time to look at round one leader bets for Dubai, The Allianz Championship and the ANZ Ladies Masters. If you want to know when this page is updated you can follow me on Twitter SBIdotcom February 9th 11.20 Apologies for the delay in the write up for this weeks PGA event from Pebble Beach - but here we go. There are plenty of multiple winners of the AT&T over the last decade, Dustin Johnson has won the last two renewals, Mickelson has three wins to his name and Love III has won it twice. When you add in the fact that before Oberholser won he had been 4th and 6th, that Vijay has three runners-up slots as well as a win and Gogel should have won two years before he did when Tiger hunted him down, then it really does become clear that solid course form is a pre-requisite. There is also an interesting link with form at Atunyote - again not clear as to why but there is a definite trend, Johnson won there, Gogel had a good finish and Love and you will see from some of my picks they have good form there as well. DA Points - in good form this season with a 5th at Torrey Pines and then 18th last week at Scottsdale - a noteworthy performance as in three previous visits he had missed every cut and never shot under 70. His form at Pebble Beach is a little patchy with a best of 14th in 2008 but he has good form at the Callaway Pebble Beach Invitational (CPBI) where in the last two years he has been 5th and 2nd. Bill Lunde - like Dustin Johnson Lunde can boast a win at Atunyote and was also 6th here two years ago.He has been in solid form this season making all his cuts and was 13th in the Bob Hope after a very poor opening round. I have seen him blow up at the end of events before so am going for the top ten angle. John Mallinger - has lost his card and has to make the most of his limited starts but he loves it round Pebble Beach which is in his own backyard. He won the CPBI in November and was 3rd here in both 2007 and 2008 - intererestingly he can also boast a 3rd at Atunyote. He starts at a much bigger price than normal for this event and I think he has been written off too early. Josh Teater - had two top five finishes in his rookie season in 2010 - 5th here and 3rd at Atunyote - worth a punt at 250/1 to repeat that level of form. I have also thrown in a couple of Nationwide Tour graduates at big prices to follow the theme of Vegas and Gainey. Peter Tomasulo - the Long Beach California native has a great pro-am record on the Nationwide Tour - winning one last season and was 2nd in the CPBI in 2005. £20 win 720 average plus £5 top 5 100 and £10 top 10 48 Justin Hicks - both his Nationwide Tour wins have been in pro-ams, has a solid Californian record on the lower tour and says his favourite course is Pebble Beach £20 win 1000 plus £5 top 5 120 and £10 top 10 50 February 8th 17.55 I haven't had time to do a write up for the AT&T at Pebble Beach yet but have listed my bets so far below DA Points - £45 win 135 average + £60 top 5 16/1 Bill Lunde - £40 win 150 average + £50 top 10 13/1 John Mallinger - £20 ew 150/1 + £40 win 180 average Josh Teater - £20 ew 250/1 + £15 win 360 average February 8th 10.00 Well Wilson won in the end providing me with a profit on the week in the end - would have been much better had Yang played 18 better over the week, I will update P & L later. Moving back to Dubai - I was interested in backing Ed Molinari but not that at the price so instead will go for the latest Italian star Matteo Manassero. Last year he managed a 3rd in the European Masters, 1st Castello Masters and 2nd in the Hong Kong Open. The kid is a huge talent and has a sensible head on his shoulders and his long game is matched with a decent putting game (unlike the two other young "great" players I could mention!) Interestingly he has improved when playing courses for a second time which makes sense, his 3rd in Crans followed a 23rd in 2009 and his 37th in Abu Dhabi was better than his 73rd place debut. In Dubai last season on his Emirates debut he was 31st with a weak final round - expect him to improve on that this week - I have staked £50 65 win and £50 top 5 9/1 Back later today once prices start appearing for Pebble. February 7th 16.01 Whilst I know he doesn't win anywhere near as often as he should the time to back Soren Hansen is when he hits form and he certainly did that in Qatar last week. He has a fairly solid record in Dubai and 100/1 Ladbrokes is too big - £30 ew for me. February 7th 12.08 Oh well it looks like I was a little premature in laying back Wilson, however the way I look at it is that I was lucky to be following on Friday night and getting a bet on at 60/1 in running - not backing him at all would have left me rather more annoyed! A quick notice to anyone who has been following my ramblings for a few years - if you followed my advice and bet on it to snow in Lincoln in 2009 (not last year but the year before) with William Hill - then get in touch as I have some info that will be of interest to you - the bet was settled as a loser but there is a way of reversing that decision. February 6th 13.41 I have adjusted my position a little this morning on my Phoenix bets as there is still so much golf to be played. I remember last year Wilson led here at the cut and faded badly so I have given a lot of my bet back at around 7/1 so my position now stands at Wilson +£1000, Crane +£3300, Yang +£3200 , Holmes +£2200, field £0 plus I have the £40 top 5 bets on Crane and Yang at 9/1 and 18/1. Ryan Palmer was a complete blowout as were the small bets in Qatar February 4th 21.50 Working hard on next weeks events - Tiger Woods returns to Dubai and we have the AT&T from Pebble Beach on the PGA. I have also been following the action from Phoenix where a Monday finish might be on the cards and I have added my favourite golfer on the year so far Mark Wilson to my portfolio. He was on my start list but I was doubtful as to how well he can perform so soon after a victory - well he seems to be doing OK and I got £40 on at 60 - not too far off his SP. February 4th 10.30 I should just have left it at Jimenez in Qatar as he is the only one who has played remotely well in tough conditions. In Phoenix after a huge delay with the frost Crane has played really well whilst Yang was until a shocking double bogey at the last. Palmer came out all guns blazing NOT! - and like so many well backed golers is up against it already. I have actually added to my Holmes bet another £30 at 42 this morning, admittedly he has a tough up and down but then a run of easy holes and as the favourites will not be playing today he could well be trading at single figures or lower at close of play today. February 2nd 12.02 As usual on the day before tournaments begin I have been going through things to make sure I have missed no-one out and have come up with another couple for Qatar. Firstly David Horsey is a very good wind player and as a winner last year really shouldn't be as big as 300 on Betfair - at three times his bookie price I had to have £20 on. Secondly I was reading Steven Rawlings posts on Betfair about players who do well at Oceanico and Leopard Creek do well here and my mind turned to Joost Luiten who has been 2nd and 4th at those venures. He finished off last year in fine form going 2/3/5 and had a nice pipe opener when 23rd in Abu Dhabi two weeks ago. Interestingly in his three seasons on tour his second starts of the year (rule out 2009 because of injury) have resulted in finishes of 3rd,4th and 6th. Whilst he isn't top quality yet he could well be by the end of the year - £25 e/w 100/1. I am going to look at the Womens Australian Open and will post anything later if I find anything. February 1st 21.49 I have already put my bets up for the Phoenix Open now it's time to explain why these golfers were on my betting list. This weeks venue - Scottsdale really is a cauldron which players either love or hate, hence the plethora of players who have great records here. In recent times JB Homes has won twice, Mickelson twice, Singh twice and Calcavecchia can boast three wins. When you add in the fact that winners Perry, Dimarco and Mediate also have second placed finishes to their name (Mediate twice) then it is clear you want to pick a player that has shown he can play well here. Ryan Palmer seems to be underestimated these days - he has made his last fourteen straight cuts and in those events managed a 2nd, 5th and last time out a 4th so is clearly capable of being competitive. He was really pleased with his Bob Hope finish when he got the putter going and with a new driver is hitting it twenty yards further than before. His best finish before in the Hope was 10th in 2006 - two weeks later he turned up at Scottsdale and finished 2nd. He was also a very solid 14th here last year and whilst he doesn't win that often he knows how to and is well worth a decent punt this week. I remember backing YE Yang in running last year at huge odds as he surged through the field on Sunday until making a mess of the 17th and coming up just shy in 3rd place. He has made a habit of improving on a return visit to a course on the PGA tour and there aren't many places he can improve to from 3rd! He made his seasonal debut last week making a bit of a mess of his final round but that blew the cobwebs away and he seems to be free of the niggling injuries that plagued the end of his season Ben Crane seems to be turning into a top player winning twice last year plus a string of other top finishes. He put up a stout defence of his title last week and turns up at Scottsdale in top form where he was 4th in 2008. I was hoping for a slightly bigger price but really don't want to leave him out this week. JB Holmes just seems to love it here and after two wins in five visits I just feel I have to have a saver on him. February 1st 20.51 First of all my final thoughts on Qatar - definitely not going to get carried away as it looks like being incredibly windy the first few days and could turn into a bit of a lottery. First up is Brett Rumford who has improved with every start at Doha culminating in a 3rd last year. He has a habit of starting quickly on courses he enjoys playing but with a late tee time I have kept bets small - £10 ew first round leader 110/1, £10 win 160 and £15 top 5 28/1. Second up is one from left field - Martin Wiegele was joint leader here after round one on his only start in 2004 so should have fond memories. He finished on Sunday with a great 64 and led the DA stats for last week in Bahrain. Once he hits form he has shown he can hold it for a short period so with an early tee he could well do what he did before - have backed him £5 e/w 225/1 and £10 e/w 200/1 for round one plus a speculative £10 at 1000. Want to go for Noren again as I know he will probably lead early as soon as I stop backing him in the desert but will stick to a minimal £10 at 42. BAck later tonight with Phoenix Open final thoughts. February 1st 13.44 Other bets for Phoenix are as follows - will post reasons later today Ben Crane £60 win 50 and £40 top 5 9/1 YE Yang £30 win 105 and £40 top 5 18/1 JB Holmes - £20 win saver 50 February 1st 09.57 A quick post to give out my best bet week - in the Phoenix Open - Ryan Palmer - reasons why later but I was fortunate enough to get £60 e/w on at 66/1 yesterday - and to be honest I have a feeling any 50/1 will go today. As for the profit and loss for the year - after a bad week last week profit for the year dropped to £1720.