December 29th 09.52
I have got itchy feet waiting for the new seasons to start so I couldn't resist a trawl through all the Money List bets that Skybet have put up and decided to have an e/w Yankee for some interest for the rest of the year (hopefully!)
US Money List w/o Woods - Matt Kuchar - much as I said about last years Money List winner being a big price for the Masters I also don't see why he should be such a big price to repeat his feats of last season 25/1
Champions Tour Money List - Michael Allen - finished 9th last year despite only playing in fourteen events - he has an excellent Majors record and concentrating on this tour for the first time I can see him winning a lot of cash 33/1
Race to Dubai w/o the Big Three - Alvaro Quiros - has improved his Money List position every year on tour - 102/25/20/14 - and is becoming more consistent in the big events - I expect him to improve again in 2011 33/1
Race to Dubai top French player - Romain Wattel - I don't think the French players are really strong at the moment and someone who will contend fo Rookie of the Year will be able to win more money than most 11/2 |
December 27th 10.49
Good morning all - I hope you had a great Christmas and hopefully the weather will continue to improve so we can start betting on things - the thaw has started in Devon overnight - just hope it spreads! If you haven't read it already there is an interesting article on this site looking at the effects of bad weather on horse racing - you can read it here |
December 23rd 16.50
I keep reading stories of bookmakers paying out hundreds of thousands of pounds on it being a White Christmas but they are basically going to rake it in with there only being a chance of the odd flake around South East England. ~
This will probably be the last post til after Christmas - so may I take this opportunity to wish you all a very Merry Christmas. |
December 20th 19.24
Betting antepost on golf can be fraught with danger with potential loss of form or injury but sometimes the price makes it worthwhile having a decent bet. The Masters is quite a good event to bet in as it has a limited field (many of whom are already known) and is played at the same venue at the same time of year so a lot of the lottery has gone. So what I don't understand is why the man who won the money list in 2010 is 80/1? Matt Kuchar really has been incredibly consistent this year - in fact ever since he hit form in October last year when he won at Atunyote. His Major record isn't exceptional but isn't that bad - this year his finishes read 24/6/27/10 and this year was the first time he has played the Masters since 2002 when he missed the cut. He played Augusta twice as an amateur making the cut both times and in 1998 he was low amateur. This years 24th place finish was achieved in difficult circumstances as he played the first two rounds with Tiger on his return to competition. He says he feels at home at Augusta as he went to Georgia Tech and having led the money list this year and had the lowest scoring average on tour I can see him gunning for Majors in 2011 and to me 80/1 is plainly wrong - I would have him at 40/1 tops and have duly had £80 ew - good luck in getting on - best prices here |
December 20th 11.27
Scouring the antepost markets for any wothwhile bets - might well have found someone way overpriced for the US Masters - back later with further thoughts. |
December 19th 21.50
Unsurprisingly Cejka finished a shot out of the places but we got a small return without the big four - thankyou Skybet!
In SPOTY it wasn't to be and tbh AP was the worthy winner - my only two comments would be - never back a golfer in this ever again and where the hell were the Ennis backers last year when she won the worlds!!
There won't be many bets from me before the New Year but I will be looking at antepost bets over the next few days so stay tuned for anything new |
December 19th 10.09
Stage one completed - Hiratsuka wins in Thailand at 33/1 - just need stage two and three now lol. Cejka could still grab a place in South Africa and then we have Amy Williams tonight - back later - off for a walk in the snow and a Sunday pub lunch! |
December 18th 16.10
Still on line for a nice payday before Christmas as Hiratsuka is one shot off the lead and now favourite to win in Thailand. In South Africa Cejka slipped back a bit but is still not without a chance with 36 holes being played on Sunday (hopefully) anything is possible - and even Kingston shot eight under today to get back on track. |
December 17th 17.45
The kids have broken up from school, the tree will go up tomorrow and the snow has been falling - all I need for myself and for you is a good Christmas present and after last week the picks are trying again this week. Hiratsuka couldn't quite match yesterdays great round but is still close by in a tie for 5th. The South African Open finally completed the first round today and no-one knows if it will be 36,54 or 72 holes - but they won't go to Monday. Amazingly Cejka is tied for the lead - making it three events on the bounce I have had the round one leader - and not a penny invested on any of them - DOH! - it's going to be another long weekend at SBI Towers! |
December 16th 10.22
A distinct feeling of Deja Vu this morning as yet again I have the early leader on far off shores - Hiratsuka leads after round one in the Black Mountain Masters - this time around it would be nice if he stays there! Sadly bad weather has halted play in South Africa - I was looking forward to watching that today. |
December 15th 13.52
For the final outright golf bets of 2010 we travel to Thailand and the Black Mountain Masters where I have gone for two players. First up is Japanese player Tetsuji Hiratsuka who early in 2009 decided to try his hand on the Asian Tour and quickly made his mark by getting the 5th card at the Q school in Thailand and then in his first event finishing second at the Aisan Tour International again in Thailand. He didn't play a lot more on this tour last year as in May he won in his native Japan. This year he has played eight times in Asia and has managed two wins and a couple of thirds - one of each came in Thailand. He rounded off his Japanese season with a fourth place finish in the season ender so comes here in good form - 33/1 seems a bit generous to me - £50 ew.
Second pick goes to young Indian player Anirban Lahiri whose first top five placing on the Asian tour came here at the Black Mountains event. Whilst he hasn't won on the main tour yet he has won three times from seven starts in his native India this year and was fourth last time out in Cambodia. I was lucky enough to get on with Extrabet £15 win 66/1 and £35 top five 14/1. |
December 14th 16.34
I have added another player to my list for the South African in the shape of Alex Haindl who was an impressive 6th in the Alfred Dunhill Championship last week - at one point being in the lead. He was born in Durban and his first ever professional win came on this course in the 2006 Sun Coast Classic. I don't think last week was a one off as he has also been 4th in the co-sanctioned Joburg Open as well. I was waiting for the tee times to be announced and am glad to see he has an early one so have backed him in a few different ways - £10 ew round one leader 100/1, £5 ew without the big 4 80/1, £20 top 5 28/1 and just in case £10 win 230/1. |
December 13th 21.12
A bit of an odd one this for the South African Open - away from the big four the players are not giants on the world stage so what price someone who was top five in two PGA events, top ten at the US Open at Pebble Beach in 2010 and who was third on his only European tour start this year before last week? Well I don't think Alex Cejka should be 100/1. In recent months his form hasn't been great but his online blog reveals the reasons why and explains why he is playing this week - he wants to be a Euro tour member in order to try and get on the Ryder Cup team for 2012. Last week was the first time he had teed it up in South Africa since the 1999 South African Open when he was 10th - the year before he was 9th here at Durban. I have backed him in a variety of markets mainly with Skybet - £15 ew 100/1, £12 top 5 20/1, allowed £6 ew 66/1 without the big four and £10 win Betfair 120. |
December 13th 16.09
Pick yourself up, dust yourself off and start all over again!
Just one early bet for the South African Open and to be honest its rather obvious - James Kingston. He plays quirky Durban really well - having been 9th, 3rd and 4th here in the last three opens, he won his home open in 2007 at Pearl Valley and was 8th last year. He warmed up with a 10th at Leopard Creek last week which would have been much better but for a poor 77 in the third round but he did lead the GIR stats for the week. I guess the price reflects his chances but was happy to get £75 ew on at 40/1 |
December 12th 22.11
Sometimes this game really does test you - today has probably been the most frustrating of the year - two players tied for 6th at 100/1 and 150/1 - off to bed to cry myself to sleep - back tomorrow! Sigh! |
December 12th 10.03
The Australian PGA goes to a 5th day - at least I will be able to follow it tonight but it does look like our man Gates has been a bit unlucky having to take a drop into an awkward stance in a bunker because of lying water and it sounds like both he and Senior are in trouble having teed off at the 10th. In South Africa Dinwiddie has had a very up and down week but still has an outside chance of a place. |
December 10th 16.35
Carlos del Moral finished 2nd in the Euro Q school in the end - would have been a fair return had I got on what I wanted instead of the £10 e/w offered - still better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick. Down in Aus it seems as soon as Cambo found some form he lost it again but Gates remains in the lead - I sense a couple of restless nights sleep on the cards for me! |
December 9th 16.12
It's been a pretty good day today - woke up to find Gates in the joint lead in Australia from a late tee time, Carlos del Moral heads into the final day of the Euro Q school in the joint lead and the Alfred Dunhill doesn't look that shabby. Ironically I had three players down for first round leader in South Africa but didn't particularly like the odds so I gave Horne,Velasco and Cabrera-Belllo a miss and they all finished tied 6th!!!!!!!!! |
December 8th 12.14
One final bet for me on the golf this week in the Dunhill Championship - going for a third English Challenge Tour graduate in the shape of Lee Slattery. He finished the Challenge Tour off in fine style going 8/4/3 to get his card and has plenty of South African experience over the years including a 2nd in this event in 2007, £20 win 120 and £25 top 5 at 16/1 at Betfair. |
December 8th 10.00
Many people have been complaining that Ladbrokes no longer appear on Oddschecker and what an inconvenience it is - if you check out our odds comparison service they are on there - click here |
December 7th 21.44
Moving onto the Alfred Dunhill Championship from Leopard Creek - the key to the event over the last few years has been backing Spaniards, long hitters and Challenge Tour graduates. Sadly I can't bet Velasco at such a short price as he won the Challenge tour money list last season, is clearly a Spaniard and has good course form! Pablo Martin played so badly in the US PGA Q school last week he gave up and flew to South Africa to defend. The only other Spaniard on show is Cabrera-Bello but I just can't back a player at 50/1 who only won on the main tour due to one round in Austria. In the end I have concentrated on the Challenge Tour grads and number two is the massively talented Matt Haines - who is worth a stab at 100/1 £25 e/w. Another Challenge Tour graduate who really should do better on his second attempt at the main tour is Robert Dinwiddie who was actually 8th here in 2008 - £15 win 140/1 and £25 top 5 22/1. |
December 7th 14.20
People probably think I am barking mad for backing Cambo but he is a hugely talented golfer who has gone through many dark moments in his career and at the moment he seems to be coming out of one. He has two good results in Australia with a 28th and a 12th and I guess the best thing to do is just to quote what he has said about his game
“I’ve been working with a new coach in Gary Edwin for the last two weeks. He’s been a great help. I hit 15 greens in each of the first two rounds and 16 today. If I’d had any luck on the greens at all, I would be right up there in contention. That’s a nice feeling. I couldn’t really have been further south than I was this season. Still, I have to admit I’m happy just to be heading in the right direction. We’ve worked hard on just simplifying everything. In fact, I’ve been doing the same off the course. We moved house recently and I threw out a lot of stuff. Basically, I’ve done the same with my golf swing; I’ve thrown out all the rubbish. Gary has given me a new lease of life. Today, I hit so many quality shots that finished pin-high, which is always a good sign. At last I’m swinging the club well.” Edwin, as is his way, downplays the obvious and immediate influence he has had on Campbell’s game. “All we’ve really done is get Michael back to swinging the way he was when he won the US Open at Pinehurst in 2005,he has so much talent, it didn’t take him long for him to get back to ‘flushing’ it."
Campbell added after he finished on Sunday “You never forget how to win in this game and with this result plus a good showing a few weeks back in the Australian Masters, I feel I can go to the Australian PGA with a view to winning the tournament. That’s how good I feel about my game now.”
There really isn't a lot I can add to his own comments - hence the £50 ew at 150/1.
Second pick - I am staying with Robert Gates after his 12th last week - he certainly does seem to love playing in Australia and I really don't understand why I can back him at a bigger price this week compared to last. |
December 7th 09.22
I am just going to quickly put up my bets so far as I haven't got time to type up reasonings - they will follow later today as will a few more selections
Australian PGA
Michael Campbell £50 e/w 150/1 Aussie books
Robert Gates £25 e/w 150/1 Aussie books
Alfred Dunhill
Matt Haines £25 e/w 100/1 + very small on Betfair 200/1 |
December 6th 22.17
I won't be putting up any bets today for Australia or South Africa - I want to wait and see a full set of prices - especially from Australian books - I would like to say thanks to whoever put up Daniel Gaunt at 80/1 on Betfair - quite happy to take £100 at that price - probably one of the most in form players in the field. |
December 6th 12.05
Sometimes it's nice to have some golf to follow on the Moday - it breaks up the day as far as the research goes - I will have a small dabble of £10 ew on Michael Putnam in the PGA Q school at 50/1 1/5 3, he is virtually the only player up there who has a card already for next year so will have an awful lot less pressure than the others plus he has often gone low in final rounds before. |
December 6th 11.26
Over the last few days I have been thinking long and hard about SPOTY and have decided to get involved - unusual for me as normally at this stage of the event there is no value left in the market - on this occasion I think differently. Over the last few years the betting market has not been a great indicator as to the final result - Giggs was 33/1 when he initially made the final ten and once people realised there was going to be a massive campaign his price went into freefall. Chris Hoy (if my memory serves me correctly) was greater than 10/1 even on the night of the show. A quick look at the contenders reveals two lifetime achievers this time around in McCoy and Taylor and there was certainly a bit of a backlash againts Giggs winning last year, add in the fact that they both come from minority sports and they are both opposable at the prices. Westwood and McDowell both finished their seasons well winning yesterday but the small golf vote is now split and I can't see a huge portion of the female vote coming for golfers. The only other serious contenders are Daley, Ennis and Williams - most of the female vote will centre on these three and remember the show doesn't clash with X Factor this year. I think the achievements of Daley and Ennis are fantastic but they were not on the world stage leaving me with Amy Williams. As far as sporting achievement goes what she did was nothing short of remarkable - our first Winter Olympics individual gold for 30 years achieved with no practice facilities in this country and virtually no money - thats what real sporting achievement is about. However this award is not necessarily about achievement it is about personality and Amy Williams has that in spades. If you look back far enough then there is quite an interesting precedent as well - if you include Torvill and Deane in 1984 then our last three Winter Olympic Gold medalists all won SPOTY. In 1976 John Curry beat F1 World Champion James Hunt, in 1980 Robin Cousins beat Olympic gold medalists Seb Coe and Daley Thompson and Torvill and D eane pipped Coe again when he won Olympic gold in 1984. I admit it was a long time ago but it was a public vote and I think people will vote this time for the eccentric nature of British sport - there is probably still a huge amount of value in the 22/1 yet. |
December 5th 20.44
Sadly Pak couldn't maintain her strong start to her round today and having got to -1 which would have been good enough for a tied place she somewhat frittered things away. In the PGA Q school Johnson has steadily improved his position every day - sadly he started from a lowly position after the first two days and I will probably be ruing the triple bogey he had in round two as without that he would be just two shots out of the places - still a lot can happen tomorrow when the pressure is on but it would take a herculean effort to hit the top five - he would need a 64 to achieve that. So all in all it has been a disappointing week - but backing long shots these weeks will happen on a regular basis! |
December 5th 16.03
The latest article has just been posted on the site - discussing the effects of the wintry weather on horse racing in the UK - you can read it here |
December 5th 11.46
Sometimes I think I should switch to spread betting on finishing positions for my outsiders - Gates and Long both rallied in Australia to finish 12th and 17th respectively. I think there will be lots of chopping and changing in Florida in the LPGA Tour Championship - hopefully Pak will have a better day and climb into the places. The Euro Q school will probably drag on for a whole week due to the weather - as I type del Moral is tied for the lead - but only through nine holes lol! Two more weeks of golf to go before the two week break over Christmas and New Year - I am really looking forward to the Alfred Dunhill Championship next week and have some strong thoughts on who will contend. |
December 4th 11.43
No joy in Australia overnight with Long and Gates falling away so it looks like the weeks profits will depend on Se Ri Pak. I have just added another golf article to the site - giving a brief preview of next weeks events - read it here |
December 3rd 22.19
Hmmm - looking at the result from Lake Louise I think I may concentrate on the golf for now - in a way I am happy the mens downhill from Beaver Creek was cancelled. I only started betting on skiing around five years ago as there was a lack of golf to follow - now there is so much more I will probably be having a change of heart.
In a chilly Florida Se Ri Pak is going well - she was +5 through 7 yesterday but is now -1 and a shot out of the places as I type. Off to bed soon - will hopefully wake up to some good news from Aus re Gates and Long. |
December 3rd 12.40
I was disappointed with my picks for last weeks Skiing so this week its back to the tried and tested method of following and analysing the training runs. Firstly in the mens from Beaver Creek - Hans Grugger has gone 5/3/1 in the three training runs and whilst he hasn't won for a while he can definitely win once he hits form £25 win 14/1.
The ladies event comes from Lake Louise and the first bet is on the French lady Gisin who led the training yesterday. She was 6th and 5th here last season and won back to back World Cup Downhills in Jan 2009. £20 win 25/1 and £35 podium 6/1. I will also have a bet on Elena Fanchini - I remember backing her here in 2005 at 20/1 when she was the fastest in the final training run and went on to win on raceday. This week she was 9th on run one, and 3rd on the final one, in the second run she appears last having made a huge mistake - take out that six second mistake and she would probably have led - £15 win 35/1 and £20 podium 9/1.
Sadly the European Tour was late publishing the full entry list for the Q school and only Skybet and Sportingbet are up - I had the max I was allowed on Carlos del Moral at 50/1 - a whopping £10 ew. Over in Australia Gates isn't too far back whilst big longshot Michael Long is going well tied for 7th. |
December 2nd 13.06
I have had a bit of a quiet morning so thought it was time I analysed the profit figures so far from Football Betting Index and they make pretty healthy reading.
Total figures to date read
Total number of bets 139
Total number of points 869
Total profit to date 167.74
This gives an ROI of 19.3%
The average stake per bet works out at 6.25 points.
Depending on how much you stake per bet you would have achieved the following profit levels
£10 per point average stake £62.50 total profit £1677.40
£25 per point average stake £156.25 total profit £4193.50
£50 per point average stake £312.50 total profit £8387
£100 per point average stake £625 total profit £16,774
Please note this doesn't include the 132.3 points profit from the Scottish FA Cup 1st round where only a few books priced up so not a bad return overall for an £80 a month outlay and about 10-15 minutes work a week!!
To find out more visit www.footballbettingindex.com |
