31 August 21.53
Have calmed down after a day out with the family and have come up with the first bet of the week in the Omega European Masters.I simply don't get the price about Daniel Vancsik who won his second European tour event in Italy in May adding to his win in 07 in Madeira - an event also played on a tricky hilly course. Argentinians have a really good record playing at Crans - maybe its the Argentinian Steakhouse maybe its the altitude! Vancsik has a really good record at altitude - his two wins in Guatemala and one in Kenya all came on courses played at altitude. As for his current form - well he was second at the cut last week and he is really striking the ball well at the moment and in his last two starts his all-round stats look really good. I really didn't epext to see many books going 100/1+ and have spread the bet around a bit - £25 ew 200/1,£30 top 6 33/1 & £35 160/1 average on Betfair. |
31 August 09.24
What a horrible way to start a Monday morning - when I went to bed Stadler was one of six players who were four shots clear - I could have written the script - he bogeyed the 17th and then failed to birdie the par 5 18th and Hal Sutton finished birdie,birdie,eagle to nick 5th place by one shot. Bye bye £1250 - not a happy bunny - after a very poor week not really what was needed - back later today with ideas for this week. |
30 August 09.33
I want to add one more player for the Johnnie Walker - in the form of an attempted trade on Betfair.Paraguayan Fabrizio Zanotti has improved with every round this week 45-23-12 and I remember how he did something similar in the Open de Espana earlier this season before coming 2nd and I was really impressed by his play on that Sunday.I think it is going to be a very tight finish so have had £70 at 100/1 on Betfair and will attempt to lay £400 at 10/1 and leave the rest to ride - I think that is a better strategy than the e/w at 66/1 where only 3 places are available.
In the other events Yang I guess still has a squeak at a place whilst Stadler Snr sits in a good position - 5th with a round to go - he has had 12 birdies this week with no bogeys - sadly he had two double bogeys in round one!! |
28 August 13.59
I really wanted to see how tough the Liberty course was going to play on day two before getting involved any further and I like what I see so far - it looks to be playing really hard so its time to sink some more money on my favourite player Mr Yang! Currently at even par he will be a lot closer to the leaders in my opinion when he comes to tee off and he will relish the tough conditions. He has shown that he improves quickly after his opening rounds and I don't see why he should be more than double his original price (although I have lost a place) so - £20 ew 150/1 and £20 to trade on Betfair. |
26 August 20.32
It's not often I will put up a player who has missed his last eleven cuts but there is method in my madness in my Northeast Pennsylvania Classic pick - step forward someone I have always wanted to tip purely because of his name Rick Price! He fulfilled his lifelong dream by making it onto the PGA tour this season but to be frank it has been an absolute nightmare and so he drops back to the Nationwide Tour. He has suddenly come good when badly out of form in the past so thats one hurdle out the way and after travelling around the States this week he gets to sleep in his own bed as he lives 50 miles from the course. Last year he was 7th at Elmhurst and he has shown his liking for Donald Ross courses before as he won at Irondequiot in nearby New York. At 200/1 he is worth a stab to play well at home and leave his poor form behind as he drops in class - £20 ew. |
26 August 12.20
It's rare to find much value on the Champions Tour these days but I do think Skybet have underestimated the chances of Craig Stadler in the Boeing Classic this week. He has played here twice - 6th in 05 and 2nd in 07 where he lost in a famous seven man playoff. He is definitely not the player he was when he first appeared on this tour six years ago but still does pop up in the top 5 now and then and he is probably at his best close to home on the West coast. He has made all three cuts in the recent Majors and was top ten at the cut last week so I will have £10 ew at 150/1 and another £30 on the top 5 at 30/1. Perhaps he will be inspired by the antics of "Baby Walrus" last week lol |
25 August 21.25
First of all back to the Johnnie Walker and the second of my bets for the week for this event and something a bit from left field. Wade Ormsby is not my favourite player of all time but he does have a solid record at Gleneagles - in 05 his 6th placed finish was his best European finish of the year and he topped the all round stats, in 06 he was 5th after round one and in 07 again his 18th was his best start of the year in Europe. His current form isn't as bad as it looks - he just keeps putting in one bad round -at the St Omer he was 3rd with a round to go,and was 7th at the same juncture in the SAS whilst last week he was 3rd at the cut. His best chance is probably to emulate his 05 finish so I will have £60 on the top 10 finish at 13/1 and £40 at 150/1 on Betfair to trade should he get into contention.
One other bet in the Barclays at this stage - Jerry Kelly in the top US no Woods market. Take away the PGA Championship missed cut he is in really good form - 3rd in the US Bank,5th in Canada and 11th at the WGC where he would have been tied 4th in this particular market. One of the reasons I like him is his ability to play well on coastal courses - such as Waialae,Trump International,Harbour Town and the Mayakoba - so he should feel at home at the Liberty - £30 ew at 66/1 for me. |
25 August 12.04
Right then - onto the Barclays! When a new venue is in use the key is to read up as much about the course and I especially like to look at pictures to see what it reminds me of. With the Liberty it does have that distinct "links" look to it but I don't think it will play like a links course over here - the ground is basically different - it was a landfill site! It does remind me of one venue played on the PGA tour and that is Whistling Straits - the venue of the 2004 PGA Championship and whilst I don't think it will play exactly the same I do think players who did well there will be to the fore. The only bet I have had at this stage is the winner of that event Vijay Singh - this must be a first for me as I don't think I have ever backed him before. Whilst he is the defending champion I don't think the pressures are the same when the venue changes and although he hasn't won this season - last year he didn't win til August and then won the WGC at Firestone and the first two Fedex playoffs. There is no doubting his fitness has been an issue after early season knee surgery but he won't want his first winless season since 2001. There have been encouraging recent signs of form of late - he was 4th at the cut in the Open and was 2nd at the cut in the PGA Championship which leads me neatly on to how I have bet him. I have placed £250 on Betfair win only at 55/1 - if he gets into contention his odds will drop considerably and I am quite happy to lay the stake back at 10/1 and then see what happens. |
24 August 20.52
Another week dawns and the "regular" season is already at an end and the play-offs commence and whilst the Liberty course looks stunning I will reserve the one bet I have planned until tommorow. Looking at the Johnnie Walker there are two players I would like to bet - one of whom will wait as I want to see how big he will get - the other I will mention tonight is Rafa Echenique. It is probably clear to regular readers I am pretty keen on the young Argentinian and this week should suit him. I have always said he seems to improve on courses he has already played and last year he was 10th at Gleneagles all the more impressive after a poor opening round. He played well last week barring the 3rd round and he closed with a solid 65 and I will take a chance once more with £50 ew at 80/1. |
23 August 21.56
I can safely say that the golf picks this week have been very poor and over the weekend none of them have really challenged. The World Championship athletics has ended up being very frustrating - Yego got the silver in the mens 800m missing out by 6/100ths of a second and Ozaki finished in the same spot in the Ladies marathon having traded at odds on during the closing stages - still a profits a profit!!
I Thought it was about time I updated a few stats since this blog started so below are the figures.
July total +£5960 - breakdown as follows
AT&T -10
Dicks Sporting Goods -50
John Deere +925
Scottish Open -115
The Open +4410
Canadian Open -180
Evian Masters -40
Cox Classic -100
Womens Open -200
Buick Open +1490
Scottish Challenge -60
US Senior Open -40
Childrens Hospital -70
August total +£4164
WGC Firestone -400
Reno +910
Selangor -50
PGA Champs +3955
Price Cutter +152
World Athletics +177
Wydham -400
KLM -140
Christmas October -40 |
23 August 09.18
A bit of a late one for the Ladies Marathon - but then again all the prices have been late coming out and some haven't bothered at all! My pick is the Japanese runner Yoshimi Ozaki who is running only her third marathon. In her first one she finished 2nd and then in November won the Tokyo marathon in a quick time of 2.23.30 - one thing I learned from the mens race yesterday - it will probably be quick and there aren't that many who can run under 2.25 on show. It wasn't just the the time of her win but who she beat - Yamauchi,Kosgei and Shibui would be a lot shorter prices than her if they were running and she easily beat Zakharova who is 8/1 here.The only real concern is the injury she picked up in the Spring but I don't think she would be running if she was still injured. Had to spread the bets around a bit but got £25 win 33/1 Bwin, £20 ew 18/1 Bet365, £25 win 16/1 Hills £50 podium 7/2 Hills. |
21 August 23.18
Finally we have some betting for the Mens Marathon at the World Champs!! I have been studying hard all night and there is one runner who interests me initially at the prices and that is Benjamin Kolum Kiptoo. Amazingly this Kenyan didn't start running until 2005 aged 26 and ran his first marathon a year later. Under the guidance of probably one of the best trainers in the world he has been undefeated in his last 3 marathons including setting a course record in Rome in March and I think the books are somewhat underestimating him - £75 ew at 20/1 Sportingbet 1/4 3 |
19 August 15.17
Third and final pick for the Wyndham and I promise this is the last time I go for Billy Mayfair. He is coming into form nicely - his two cuts made in the US and British Opens seem to have kickstarted his season and he was 9th last time out - the only thing letting him down is his putting - the rest of his game is in fine fettle and if he can find a few putts I think he could challenge.Whilst it was on a different course one of the last times he seriously challenged for an event was this one when 2nd in 07. Unusual staking for me but have had £30 top 10 12/1 Extrabet and then £70 on betfair at 180/1 with the plan to trade back £1000 at 10/1 - will leave that up and ready to go as he is out early tomorrow. |
19 August 12.26
I will have a small investment in this weeks Nationwide event - the ridiculously named Christmas in October! A new event, a new course - the Jack Nicklaus designed Lions Gate in Kansas. The player who interests me a little is John M Kelly who gets into the event by way of his 4th place finish last week. I imagine he will happy to have got in as he has played this course before - albeit a Junior event - he did win it and he was a top amateur a few years ago - has to be worth £20 ew at Stan James 150/1 |
18 August 21.23
I am going to take a punt here on a young Spaniard - 3 years ago I put up Canizares for the KLM Open and got a degree of derision on the Betfair forum - he came 7th and frustratingly won the next week. The reason I picked him was he was a very talented youngster who was desperate to follow in the vein of Seve Ballesteros who won his first pro event here at Kennemer. I have looked at the field and think Jorge Campillo fits the mould - he has just turned pro like Canizares had and has shown some promise with a 5th on the Challenge Tour plus he was 2nd heading into the final round in Wales in his 3rd event on that tour before fading to 12th. He has plenty of experience of links golf with some top finishes in amateur events in the UK as well as being one of the top 3 ranked amateurs in the US collegiate system. Like I said it is a punt but have taken £30 top 10 at 28/1 Extrabet and £50 on Betfair at an average of 425/1 to trade - sadly I missed the 1000/1!! |
18 August 19.15
Moving onto the KLM Open - I really fancied Slattery this week - in form and good course form and managed to get around £20 at 80-85 on Betfair but at less than 50/1 I will have to pass - instead I will go for a player who has missed his last three cuts! I Have tipped Rafa Echenique a few times and will only back him when he has some course experience - he seems to improve on courses he has played before. His 2nd place finish in the BMW came on a course he had led after round 1 the previous season, at Kennemer he was 5th after round one last year and led the putting stats. Whilst his three missed cuts are a worry that 2nd in Germany came on the back of three missed cuts and if he gets his putter working as he can (now that his card is secure) then the 100/1 could look big come Sunday - £30 ew. Best prices here |
18 August 12.43
My second bet of the week comes in the shape of JJ Henry at the Wyndham. He is actually fairly easy to get right - all his best form has been in lower grade tournaments (where he boasts a 15% top 5 strike rate) preferably over a par 70 track and where he has played well before (he tends to play the same tournaments well year in year out) - so we have all the right credentials for a succesful week. He was 4th here at Sedgefield last year closing with a 62 and although the course has been revamped he was also 4th back in 99 when the Nationwide Tour played here. He also comes here in pretty good form making the cut in the PGA but also was 9th in Reno and 5th in the John Deere - at 66/1 I will invest £50 ew |
17 August 21.42
Onto this weeks golf and the main bet of the week is undoubtedly in the Wyndham and is in the shape of the player who did me proud the other week - Martin Laird.He is hitting form much the same as he did last season at this time of the year, only this year I think he is a better player. Last year he was 4th at Reno and then came 4th here - this year he was 2nd at Reno - can he improve on last years finish at Sedgefield? I think the answer is yes - last year he led after a round 1 of 63 but then stumbled in round 2 to a 74 - this was mainly due to his 9th hole - the 18th where he called a 2 shot penalty on himself after forgetting to replace his marker on the green - funnily enough the person he moved it for was Yang! He was clearly rattled by this as he also put two shots out of bounds thereby incurring 6 shots in penalties.To come back at the weekend and blitz his way through the field with a 64 and 63 was very very impressive. I guess you can see why I am so keen on him this week and have had £100 ew at 50/1. |
17 August 11.42
Back down to earth this morning and back to the grindstone - the hard work behind the research is much more fun when it pays off! I could have something pretty strong for the US this week - its all down to prices, for those who would like to reinvest some Yang winnings why not try HBI - we had 3 max winners in the last few days and this week sees the big York meeting - click here to see the results |
17 August 00.18
Wow - well done Yang - that shot at 18 is probably one of the best golf shots you will ever see given the circumstances! I have touted him for years as being a class player and whilst I have not won as much money as I would have had I kept the faith after the last month I am really glad he won - an Asian Major winner will be so good for the game of golf.
It has been a great day with Ennis winning the World gold as well and I will sign off for now - got a biggie lined up for next week - oh and Lamely was 2nd lol!!! |
16 August 12.18
Very glad I added Yang in running as he lies tied for the lead without Woods - it will be interesting to see how he handles playing with Woods in the final round - when he beat him at the HSBC Woods was playing in front of him.
Wish I hadn't mentioned Bjornstad for the Nationwide as he sits 3rd with a round to go!! However I will have two small plays before the final round - Lamely £15 ew 50/1 - he won last week and looks an interesting young prospect, and Steele £10 ew 66/1 who could improve on his 4th here last year - he clearly likes the course, and with low scoring possible the leaders are vulnerable - especially as they both failed to win when in with chances the last few weeks. Those prices are at Skybet and are 1/4 3. |
15 August 12.03
The only thing I have done right so far on the PGA Championship is to take Woods out of the equation - sadly most of my players are also out of the equation already! The bet I placed on Yang last night I am happy with and having studied this mornings prices I just cannot fathom out why Sabbatini is 100/1 without Woods at Skybet and Boyles. He is on level par just 3 shots out of a place and it wasn't that long ago that he won - £30 ew 1/5 4
On another note - Ennis had made a solid start in the Heptahlon - will be cheering her on as her SPOTY odds tumble!! |
14 August 19.24
Well not much has been going right with the US PGA Championship so far and usually I wouldn't throw good money after bad but the one player I left out at the beginning has made quite a move so will add £40 ew 90/1 Yang without Woods at Paddy Power 1/4 4 |
12 August 14.45
With the US PGA out of the way I have been concentrating my time on the World Athletics Championship and have come up with my first bet - mens 800m the Kanyan Alfred Yego.The key to finding winners in the major events is to find those who rise to the occasion and are capable of coping with the pressure rather than the ability to run the fastest times.Yego is defending champion having won in Osaka in 07 and was also 3rd at the Olympics last year and he is on record saying he will peak for the bigger events. He won his first event this year in Rome 3 weeks ago and the odds of 20/1 for the win at William Hill £30 and 5/1 podium Bwin £40 are well worth taking |
11 August 20.58
Going for one last bet before the off for the PGA Championship and that is in the shape of Chad Campbell. He was the runner-up at the Masters this year and has also been 2nd in this Major before back in 03 at Oak Hill when a stunning shot at the 72nd hole by Shaun Micheel proved to be his undoing. He seems to be coming into form at the moment and I will have £30 on the win without Woods and £45 on the top 5 at 120/1 and 33/1 respectively on Betfair - its always nice to see the gernerous layers out for the Majors.
I will probably be passing on the Nationwide Tour this week as the only player who stood out was Bjornstad and I can't back a player who has never won a pro event at 50/1 especially as that is only available at one book - so ots back to work on the World Athletics Champs now that more prices are coming out. |
11 August 11.35
Carrying on with the PGA Championship - my next slot goes to someone who is trying to make up for lost time after suffering an injury.Back in May Pat Perez tore the ligaments in his ankle - I know how much this hurts as I did the same two years ago - that is where the similarity ends! Perez did his whilst out jogging - I did mine whilst dancing at my 40th birthday! He spent about 8 weeks recuperating - I was back at work behind my desk within 8 hours! Since his return he has gradually improved both his fitness and his form - the question is - how to back him? The answer is really quite obvious when you look at his stats - he averages a top ten finish once in every six starts and was 6th at Baltusrol in 2005 so odds of 18/1 seem pretty generous - £65 on that and £35 on the win without Woods at an average 210/1 Betfair. |
10 August 21.35
Onto the last Major of 2009 where Tiger Woods will be desperate for a Major - his season won't feel complete without one - therefore all my bets this week will be without him in essence.
The first thing I always look at for any event is course form and with Hazeltine we really have very little barring the 2002 rendition and the 1999 NCAA Championship, both events were a few years ago but they are still useful in giving an indication of players who will go well. My first pick actually won the NCAA event - Luke Donald - probably his best win as an amateur, although not someone I would normally pick due to his nervousness at the business end. He has been fairly solid this season having come back from injury and whilst he hasn't won he was 2nd at Verizon and 5th at the British Open - both "windy" courses and Hazeltine has a reputation of getting windy.In 2006 at Medinah he headed into the final round tied for the lead but faltered and finished 3rd, but betting without Woods on a course that will inspire him from past success I will have £40 ew at 66/1 with a £20 bet on him win only on Betfair at 140/1.
The player who was 5th in that NCAA event also played in the 2002 PGA Championship where he was 2 shots off the lead after two and a half rounds until blowing up on the back 9 when the wind got up and he ended up shooting 80 but he came back the next day with a solid 69 to finish 17th.Charles Howell III is the man and he is often tarred with the same brush as Donald as a bottler but then again so was Lucas Glover! He has had 2 ruuner up spots this season and whilst his recent finishes don't inspire at first glance his stats are very good and in a market such as top US without Woods at 80/1 to me he is well worth a bet and I'll have £40 ew with £20 on the win only on Betfair at 350/1.
One last player for today is in the mould of Tom Watson in the Open - a player who simply excels in this particular Major and that is Steve Elkington. His best finishes read 94 7th,95 1st,96 3rd,98 3rd,05 2nd and he comes into the event (despite being 46) playing some of the best golf he has done for a few years - I've had £35 win without Woods 300/1 Betfair + £50 top 10 28/1 and a cheeky £25 700/1 win outright. |
10 August 10.26
Well thanks to Laird I have maintained the excellent strike rate at the moment as he was tied 2nd copping the place part of the £50 ew at 80/1 - I will update how I stand since starting the blog later.This week we have the PGA Championship - keep an eye out for tips over the next few days - these will mainly be in the form of without Woods bets!!! |
9 August 10.27
I have not posted anything for a few days as I have been busy researching the World Athletics Champs and next weeks last golf Major of the season the PGA Championship. A quick recap on how this weeks golf has gone so far - well Lu was 5th at the cut but then faded over the weekend and Yang and Love have been a disappointment. Hicks was going well in Wichita til 4 straight bogeys hindered his progress but he still has a chance of a place but my best chance of a place is in Reno where Mayfair has an outside chance but Laird had an odd finish with 4 bogeys,6 birdies and an eagle in his last 11 holes to lie 4th but sadly Rollins is a long way clear. |
4 August 21.47
A couple of small plays on some of the lesser events this week - firstly the Wichita Open on the Nationwide Tour - Justin Hicks is coming into form and should be capable of winning again on this tour and he has a fairly good record on this course and at 66/1 is just about worth a bet £25 ew at Skybet.
A rare dabble on the Asian tour and the Selangor Masters where I will have a small play on a 50 year old!! Chien-Soon Lu was a top player on the Asian tour many years ago but retired from the game with injury 8 years ago, however he returned to the game this year aiming to get on the Champions tour and what a return he has had. After winning twice in Taiwan he was 2nd in Malaysia in the Salcon Negra Masters losing in a playoff before winning the Mercedes Benz Malaysian Masters a few weeks ago. He returned to the Asian Tour last week and finished 5th in Brunei. Has to be worth £25 ew at 125/1 Bet365,Stan James |
4 August 18.50
When a player hits form I see no reason in deserting him even when I have had a good payday especially when the books still seem to underestimate him so this week once more I will be going for Yang. Again last week he had a poor 3rd round when his putting let him down, but he fired back with a bogey free 67 in the final round to get 5th place. As with the Love bet I want to avoid Woods so have gone for the outright market without him and 80/1 is very generous at Sportingbet - £75 ew + £50 on the win only on Betfair 160/1 for trading purposes. |
4 August 13.58
Back to Reno again for a small bet on outsider Billy Mayfair at 125/1. Whilst I really fancy the likes of John Rollins,Mark Wilson and Bryce Molder the skinny odds on offer of 33/1 do not really get me excited. At least Mayfair has won five PGA events although the last one was back in 1998 he can still turn it on occasionally and has quite a few placed efforts in recent seasons. He seems to be at his best in the Summer and in the weak events when the big players are away and he certainly has that this week. His finishes and stats have certainly been going the right way in the last few weeks and last week he was 2nd for both ballstriking and total driving. A speculative bet but worth £20 ew at 125/1 Best Prices Here |
4 August 12.34
Whilst waiting for prices to filter through I had chance to write the July review for HBI which reads as follows.
Well July has exceeded all expectations as we broke through the 100 point barrier on the month. The basic figures read as follows - 320.7 points staked,103.97 points profit and an ROI of 32.4%. We have tipped 20 individual winners in total but we came close with a lot more having 18 horses finish second - as our professional race reader said “just imagine if just a couple of those had won - the results would look really scary!”
It was a slow start to the month but we hit form with a bang at the Newmarket July meeting recommending 3 pts ew on Total Gallery at 20/1. That price remained in place overnight and as the day of the race progressed he was strongly backed all the way into 11/1 winning the race comfortably in the end and leaving our subscribers jumping for joy.
Glorious Goodwood was fairly glorious as well as we maintained our track record of turning it on for the big meetings recording a profit of 18.5 points over the 5 days. We ended the month on a high especially on the 30th July in the evening when we had 3 winners on the bounce at 5/1,8/1 and 11/4.
All this profit has seen us leap to the top of the www.racingproofing.com league tables for three months,six months and even twelve months!
To join simply click here |
4 August 11.30
I will be having another bet in this weeks WGC event but am still waiting for all prices to come in on the specialist markets but I do want to mention now a player for Reno. Martin Laird was 4th here last year improving with every round, he had done little in his rookie season until this result but it spearheaded a solid end to his season. He clearly enjoyed playing the course at altitude - maybe because he spent his college years at Colorado. He missed the cut last week - hence his decent price of 80/1 this week but before that he was 10th at Loch Lomond in a top field and in Canada his 16th place was achieved by two rounds of 65 bt he did shoot an alarming 78 in round 3. It really is a weak field and I'll be having £50 ew at 80/1 Best Prices Here |
3 August 20.52
The golifng circus moves to Firestone this week for the WGC event and a course where Tiger Woods is a standing dish so it makes sense to take him out of the equation. I will go for a player who is more of a standing saucer here at Firestone - Davis Love! These days Love plays the same old courses the same old way - if he has a good rrecord at a course he is likely to play well again hence his win last year at Magnolia and his top 5 at the Memorial earlier this year. The key question is - how far do I want to reduce the field? I have two options - go for the straightforward without Woods market or the top US without him and as I think there are some weak favourites in the US market I will go for that. His record in this market over the last few years is pretty consistent and since this event has been established as it is reads 2/2/2/6/3/2 so at 22/1 it is a bit like an each way bet to nothing. I'll be having £75 ew at that price but also got £50 at 150/1 on Betfair for trading purposes should he get close to winning. |
2 August 22.59
Well it has certainly been an up and down week with Sophie Gustafson collapsing on Saturday with an 82 but thankfully Yang pulled things back on Sunday after a poor Saturday as well and secured the £70 bet at 22/1.July has certainly been a good month here on SBI,check back tomorrow for the bets for next weeks golf. |
1 August 11.10
A quick update on how the bets are faring this week at the cut - well we are in a pretty strong position with Gustafson and Yang, and Collins isn't too far back in the Nationwide event so all to play for and hoping for a profitable week close of play tomorrow! |
