April 27th 19.48
Chris Nallen was a fairly straightforward pick for me in the South Georgia Classic as he comes into the week on the back of his best ever finishes at Stobebrae (19th) and Le Triomphe (9th). He burst onto the scene in 2004 winning on his first Nationwide start shooting a 60 in his first round - it probably proved a hinderance to his career and it wasn't until last season that he began to fulfill his potential. Last season he had three top five finishes on this tour and certainly has the distance to master the very long Kinderlou Forest course. He has always stsrted well here before when out of form but has faded over the weekend, in his current form I can see him go all the way and at 80/1 is well worth a bet.
I am also going to have a dabble in the LPGA Avnet Classic which should be set up to suit the bombers on the ladies circuit and they don't come any longer than the highly talented youngster Alexis Thompson. She has performed well in Alabama before and I reckon this could be the week she shines through. I have had £30 e/w at 80/1 but 66/1 is more than fair.
I have also had a crazy mortgage buster Maybin 55/1, Nallen 66/1, Thompson 66/1 & Gomez 400/1 - well for a few pennies e/w on tha yankee it would be rude not to lol!! |
April 27th 14.44
I have had one bet in the South Georgia Classic so far and that is on Chris Nallen - availed myself to the huge sum of £2.25 e/w 100/1 at Skybet and had to settle for a further £50 e/w at 80/1 - back later if any more fancies. |
April 26th 21.25
The Zurich New Orleans Classic has a history of producing first time winners and big priced ones to boot so that was where I focused my attention this week. Given the "theme" so far this year has been for Nationwide graduates to perform well then that is where I have started.
Fabian Gomez reminds me a bit of fellow Argentinian Andres Romero (whose lone PGA tour victory was here in 2008) although somewhat older he has won many of the same events back in South America. Most of his best form in the USA has been in the southermost states and he won last year in Louisiana and his best result this year was in Puerto Rico when 7th. If he ever performs well in a main tour event this will be his best chance.
Scott Gutschewski also had a great Nationwide season in 2010 although he didn't quite manage a win he did finish 2nd to Gomez in Louisiana. He has made a pretty solid start to his PGA season - probably much better than previous attempts. His form at the TPC is not disimilar to Gaineys form at Harbour Town and look how he performed last week. His best finish of 24th here masks the fact that at one point he led and was 3rd with a round to go before the nerves got the best of him. Without a top five PGA tour finish to his name I would rather go for a trade and the top ten price.
Moving away from the Nationwide grads I will give James Driscoll another crack in an event where he was 2nd in 2005. He has never really fulfilled his potential but once or twice a year - usually in April or May he comes good - 2010 9th Texas Open, 2009 2nd Texas Open, 2008 5th AT&T Classic and of course that 2nd here in 2005. Perhaps he just likes this time of the year or this neck of the woods but at the odds he is worth a shot.
Tim Petrovic is a nightmare to get right but as a past winner here is worth a small bet at 150/1 and Woody Austin is the only one of thirty one players to have a top five finish here to have done it twice so I couldn't resist the 800/1 win price early doors on Betfair. Read more > |
April 26th 14.16
Last couple of bets for the PGA tour - sticking with the outsiders this week
Tim Petrovic - £20 win 150
Scott Gutschewski - £20 win 510 + £25 top 10 25/1 |
April 26th 13.13
Second lot of bets for Zurich are as follows (no more bets for Ballantines)
James Driscoll - £35 win 440 £10 top 5 55 + £35 top 10 25/1
Woody Austin - placed yesterday but was hoping for more at silly price £30 win 800 |
April 26th 10.17
I hate Bank Holidays - puts everything out of sync! - will drip feed bets today and do explanations later
Ballantines - just the one bet for me £30 e/w Gareth Maybin 66/1 Ladbrokes
Zurich Classic New Orleans - main bet - Fabian Gomez £30 win 780 £10 e/w 400/1 & £30 top 10 33/1 |
April 24th 22.51
I take it all back lol - Tommy Two Gloves nearly comes up trumps - a great fight back misses the play-off by one but gets the place money e/w at 150/1 |
April 24th 19.21
Tommy Two Gloves has already spoilt my Sunday night entertainment so will quickly post a preview of next weeks events and go and watch the TV!
The European tour continues its Far Eastern journey and the Ballantines event takes place in Korea again but they try out another new venue this time – the Blackstone course in Seoul, a private course which opened in 2009 and has just 300 members. If you can find one of the mega rich Korean members ask him how the course will play!!
In America the PGA tour arrives in Louisiana which is where the players love to play – not necessarily because of the course but they reckon the food is the best all year! The TPC course has been used for five years and it is impossible to find any great trend. In those five years, thirty one players have filled a top five spot and only one player has done it twice – Woody Austin. I would say don’t be afraid of picking a tour virgin as Petrovic, Watney and Romero all made this their first win on tour.
I might be spending a bit more time on the Nationwide Tour, South Georgia Classic which has fond memories for me. In the 2007 inaugural edition, Stan James failed to do their homework and made John Kimbell 150/1, unaware that he had won on the course the year before. Apparently it took them a long time to recoup the losses on this tour. The main point with this event is look for the big hitters as the course is the longest they use all year at around 7800 yards. |
April 23rd 10.23
With the weather being stunning and having the kids at home for the school holidays have had a few days off. Looking at how things stand - in China Stolz still has every chance of grabbing a place with a solid final round. On the PGA tour - Gainey has improved after not holing a putt in round one and looking at the leaderboard it seems I am suffering from a case of premature tipulation! You might have noticed over the last few weeks that I tipped Verplank the week before he was 2nd and Day the week before his exploits in the Masters so I was rather disturbed to see O'Hern moving through the field last night so had a token £10 on at 100 on Betfair. Also those who have followed me over the years will remember I have followed DJ Trahan over the proverbial cliff here at Harbour Town due to his family connection with the course so again I had £20 95 and also a small e/w bet at 80/1 with four places - 66/1 this morning still seems fair. |
April 19th 22.11
The Heritage from Hilton Head is struggling as a tournament to stay alive due to lack of sponsorship which is a great shame as it is a great event at a lovely venue. There is plenty of course form and it cetainly seems to suit certain players but that means that prices on most of those players are pretty poor. Cameron Beckman may be an odd pick but he can boast some pretty decent form here over the years, he was 2nd with a round to go in 2002, led after round one in 2004 and was 5th at the cut in 2005 so he has shot plenty of low rounds. He is now a three time winner on tour having won the Mayakoba last year and there are definite similarities between the two venues. He has actually been far more consistent this year in comparison to 2010 when at the start of the year in eleven starts he missed nine cuts and won in Mexico (the only other cut he made was here). I have a feeling he really could be a surprise contender and don't think he should be anywhere near 200/1.
Tommy Gainey has a home game this week in South Carolina and he could well continue the great form of Nationwide Tour graduates this year - Steele followed Vegas into the winners enclosure and there have been a lot of places as well. It wouldn't be a surprise to see Tommy maintain his great form - he nearly won in Phoenix and put that disappointment behind him when 5th at the Honda Classic so more or less has his card wrapped up for next year. He will have a huge amount of home support and whilst his two starts here show some patchy form he is a much better player now.
Kris Blanks has been quiet this year but reading his posts on Twitter he is now very bullish about his game saying it is just coming round - just in time for Harbour Town where he was 5th on his debut last season. His one win on the Nationwide Tour came at the Glen Club the year fater he had finished 3rd at that venue so there is defiinitely a precedent for him going well this week. He has spent a large part of his life around Hilton Head where his wife was assistant pro so his good finish last year was not a huge surprise.
I have a feeling Stephen Ames might leave some
poor Florida form behind and whilst his finishes around here don't read great he is often in contention
2010 3rd after round 3
2009 4th after round 2
2007 5th after round 3
2005 5th after round 3
2004 3rd after round 3
He could well prove to be a great back to lay.
Lastly I cannot leave Love unbacked and round one is probably the best market to back him in - in the last fiftenn years he has led twice, been second and fourth three times after Thursday so is worth a few quid at 125/100. |
April 19th 12.52
The European Tour continues its far flung travels and this week at least it is a regular tour stop for the Volvo China Open - sadly it's yet another new course. However there is some course form to look at as Luxehills has hosted the Chengdu Open for the last three years but only 2010 had a decent field. The winner in a play off last year was home favourite Wen-Chong Liang - he seemed a bit rusty in Malaysia last week but at 40/1 + he is worth a bet.
Main pick for me though has to be Andre Stolz who has been in great form over the last six months. Since October he has been 3rd in the China Classic, 5th Australian Masters, 3rd Australian PGA and this year has been 7th and 5th in small Australian events before finally winning the Indonesian PGA Championship last month. He played here last year and missed the cut but you need to look closer to see he was tied 9th after round one but didn't enjoy the cold weather in round two but he sounds really positive about coming back "I really liked the course though and it's a course I can see myself winning on. I'm just happy I will be there one month later than last year so hopefully the weather will be better. I've been checking on the temperature in Chengdu every day!" - the weather forecast calls for temperatures in the 70's all week so he should be fine. I had him in at around the 50/1 mark so he has to be a decent bet at double that price.
Final pick goes to Richie Ramsay who will be seeing the course for the first time but seems to really enjoy playing in China. In 2008 he was 2nd when the European Challenge tour visited and then last year was a very impressive 3rd in the HSBC Champions tour event. He has been in solid form this season with an 8th in Bahrain and 7th last time out in Morocco and I think it is only a matter of time before he adds to his maiden victory. |
April 19th 10.05
Same as yesterday with picks for the Heritage - though I do have a couple of back to lays and first round leader bets to add once matched - back later with full previews of both events later
Cameron Beckman - £30 e/w 200/1 + £40 win 260
Kris Blamks - £20 e/w 200/1 + £25 win 260
Tommy Gainey - £20 e/w 150/1 |
April 18th 17.26
Bit short of time today - have had bets on the Volvo China Open so will quickly post
Wen-Chong Liang £40 e/w 50/1 - (40/1 OK)
Rich Ramsay £20 e/w 70/1 + £20 100/1 win
Andre Stolz £40 ew 125/1 |
April 18th 14.09
Another frustrating week - becoming rather commonplace atm! The London Marathon would have produced a nice profit had Ladbrokes allowed me a decent bet on Keitany at 9/1 - hopefully some of you got on. The final day in Texas was ineteresting with three big outsiders in the final three ball and they all played well really - probably helped each one of them that no star name was in the final group. In running bet Chappell did well until a poor second at the 17th led to a bogey and he eventually tied for second but not after I had laid a big chunk back at 2/1 to guarantee a profit. With outsiders winning nearly every week its time to try and find this weeks surprise winner in the Volvo China Open and the Heritage! |
April 17th 09.34
A quick final post on the London Marathon - the only other man I was interested in was Gharib - great in warm weather and finishes here of 3/2/8/4/3/3 - sadly he wins rarely and even sadder his podium price on Betfair is poor - so just had £20 on at 30 average to maybe trade in running. |
April 16th 11.39
The wind blwoing in Texas sorted the field out a bit yesterday - it is not due to blow too much today but tomorrow could be stronger than Friday and from a different direction. The Australian theory seems to be working OK and 125/1 pick O'Hern isn't too far back. One interesting player is Kevin Chappell who is tied for the lead - last year he won on the Nationwide Tour on the corresponding weekend - anyone believe in bio-rhythms?! I did have £20 at 85 last night and over in Malaysia I have invested £20 on Hiratsuka at 300 - if he can get a bit closer to the lead he sure knows how to finish the job off. |
April 15th 13.39
Ladbrokes - womens London marathon - Mary Keitany shouldn't be 9/1 - sadly no e/w and max bet £7.50! |
April 15th 11.13
I priced up the London Marathon last week and waited eagerly for the first prices and Bwin obliged on Monday - not a lot of point posting my bets at the time as I wanted to see what prices other books went but I made the defending champions Kebede 2/1 and Shobukhova 9/4 so was happy to get £45 at 9/1 and £100 at 7/2!!!! Maybe the best way now would be to back the two in e/w doubles at around 5/2 and 3/1 as I find it hard to see either finishing off the podium. Still looking for other bets but beware Bazu Worku is out with food poisoning. |
April 15th 10.04
It hasn't been the best start to the week for my golf tips but there is a long way to go - Texas looks very interesting if the wind blows! I have been looking at the Champions tour event for the last few days and have been pondering over whether to back Steve Lowery but just couldn't pull the trigger. He had his best Champions tour finish last time out when 7th where he led the driving distance and GIR stats - he simply couldn't putt very well. The last of his three wins was in a pro-am which is the format this week which made me feel confident but I still couldn't make the call. Then today I read that his father had died last week - that made me call and place £40 e/w at 66/1 - he is a very religious man and I just think you might see a very emotional and inspired Lowery this week. |
April 13th 22.10
Before explaining the Nationwide picks I have added a further bet on Edfors as round one leader in Malaysia - £20 e/w 50/55 - he has led or co-led in 4 of his last 13 starts
In California the Fresh Express Classic enters its third year at the Stonebrae course
and I have gone for a couple of oldies to master the tricky course. You have to feel sorry for Fran Quinn - playing the best golf of his career he won in Sept 09 and in Feb 10 and then suffered a stress fracture in his spine. He has improved with every event since his comeback and is really keen to take up where he left off when injured. Call it a childish sense of humour but I have always wanted to tip Dicky Pride and now I have the opportunity!! He drops down to the Nationwide Tour having played three events on the main tour where he improved with each start especially with a 30th at Bay Hill. He should have fond memories of Stonebrae - last year when in poor form he came here and led after round one before fading to 17th - at 80/1 he is worth the risk. |
April 13th 12.32
I have made a couple of bets on this weeks Nationwide Fresh Express Classic - will post reasons later
Fran Quinn - pennies e/w at 80/1 + £50 e/w 66/1
Dicky Pride - £40 e/w 80/1 |
April 12th 19.29
The Texas Open was played at Lacantera from 1995 to 2005, but last year it moved to its new home at the TPC in San Antonio which was designed in the main by Greg Norman, the designer who is at the centre of my thoughts this week. Last season Adam Scott was triumphant and the following quote after his win is very interesting:
“When I played Tuesday I was amazed how much it looked like some of the courses back at home. A lot like the Mornington Peninsula. I even saw some of the Brisbane courses. It felt like the landscape looks very similar to back home, kind of harsh, scrub land off the fairways and I had a feeling I knew Aussies would do well here this week. Greg's greens are a lot like some of the sandbelt greens back at home, you know, that design and the bunkering. I felt comfortable on it and I think a lot of the other Aussies did, too, because there were a lot of Aussies up there through 36 holes this week and you know, when you feel comfortable like that, it certainly helps.”
It certainly was a good place for Australians last year with Scott winning and Baddeley third but also at the cut Jones and Nitties were tied first before fading. The question is, which Australians to side with this week? The two favourites are Scott and Ogilvy and whilst both enjoyed very good weeks at Augusta you do have to wonder if this week will be a bit of a let down. One thing to remember though is that Scott has a fantastic record in Texas and a very good record when defending titles, he is worth a saver win only at 12/1 £50
The player that I was really interested in was Marc Leishman who was an excellent 3rd at Bay Hill a couple of weeks ago, a solid 30th here last season and whose sole win on the Nationwide Tour came in the state of Texas however at odds of 33/1 I have to pass.
Nick O’Hern caught my eye on his last start in Houston shooting a 65 to tie for 2nd after round one, though he did struggle a bit on day two before eventually finishing tied 19th. It was interesting listening to his post round one interview as he has played poorly after his knee surgery last year:
“My game started coming around last week at Bay Hill. Last few weeks it's progressively better. I knew a good round wasn't far off. The big thing for me on this Tour is driving the ball. I'm one of the shortest hitters, but I'm usually one of the most accurate. I haven't been accurate at all of late. My game revolves round hitting fairways and therefore I can hit greens and hopefully make putts.”
If the Australian connection rings true, O’Hern has a great record at home and is worth investing in at 125/1 £25 e/w + £20 170
I will also give a small chance to Matt Jones who was tied 1st at the cut here last season. Although he arrives here in worse form than 2010 he has been putting well just as he did at San Antonio last year £16 190 + £24 top 5 28/1
Moving away from the Australians, one American has attracted my money in the shape of Tim Petrovic. He has been a poor starter to the season for a while now but usually gets his act together once we hit April. He had his best finish of the year at Houston last time out when 16th and was 2nd on the all round stats. I can see him possibly beating last season’s 6th place finish here at San Antonio. I took £25 e/w 80/1 + got £25 win 140. |
April 12th 16.18
The Malaysian Open revolves around the four favourites who take a huge chunk out of the betting market - all can be opposed leaving some nice each way prices further down the field. Newly crowned Masters Champion Schwartzel is bound to be fairly exhausted. Rorys’ final round collapse could well be the making of him or it could destroy any confidence he had for some time to come and at 10/1 it would seem foolish to take the risk. It wasn’t a surprise to see Kaymer fail at Augusta as his game is simply not suited to the course but he has actually been fairly poor since he became world number one and is always at his best on courses he feels comfortable on. Open champion Oosthuizen couldn’t defend in Andalucia due to an eye infection and didn’t play very well at the Masters. So which players down the list look to be worth backing?
The erratic Swede Johan Edfors leaps off the page at 66/1 as he has been in good form this season. It has been five years since he won three times on tour in one season and the only time he has seen the winners enclosure since was two years ago in Thailand where he now spends a lot of his time. Already this year he has a 6th in Bahrain and a 2nd last time out in Spain and seemed very upbeat after that finish in Andalucia:
“I had been planning to take this week off because I did not play well in the event last year, but then I decided to come and it was a good decision. The course is in great shape and the weather during my round was absolutely lovely. I know I have not won for five years but I feel my confidence is starting to come back.”
In fact that missed cut in Andalucia last year was sandwiched by a 7th here in Kuala Lumpur and a 4th in the China Open - he clearly feels at home in Asia. £80 e/w 66/1 + £20 win 80/1.
Sticking with the Swedes, Rikard Karlberg who like Edfors is also now based out of the Black Mountain resort in Thailand. He won twice in Asia last season, both on the Delhi course and was also an impressive 3rd in the Singapore Open. He has improved with every start on tour this year 65/41/11 and back out in Asia I expect him to go well at 100/1 - £25 e/w
A lot of the local players are of interest but they may well be better plays in running as with so many bigger name players taking part their odds are not likely to contract hugely even if they get off to a good start.
My final pick before they tee off is Alastair Forsyth who hit a low point in his career last year when failing to get his card back at Q school. He only gets in here this week as a past winner and will be looking to make use of the start after a promising finish in Sicily last month. His best form seems to be at this time of the year - in 2009 he went 5/7/c/8/6, 2008 1/25/2 and 2007 16/7/8 between the months of March and May. He was really pleased with his final round of 65 in Sicily and says he is inspired by the recent wins of fellow Scots Lawrie and Lyle after long gaps and at a huge 200/1 is well worth an investment each way £25 e/w plus a bet on a top ten finish at 20/1 £25. |
April 11th 09.49
With prices slow to come out this week I will just put bets up as I place them and follow with a full write up later today or tomorrow.
Main bet in Malaysia is Johan Edfors £80 ew 66/1 and £20 win 80/1 |
April 10th 20.43
I have been away for a few days and looking at the scores in the Masters I am glad I have been because after a great Thursday things have gone pearshaped ever since and the chance of even a place is incredibly remote. Next week it's back to the bread and butter events with the Valero Texas Open and Malaysian Open the highlights and it will be interesting to see who prices up the London Marathon and when. |
April 8th 09.25
Too tired to post last night - I guess it was a game of two halves for me - first round leader bets - very poor - outright bets pretty good. with Yang, Kuchar, Moore and Immelman all playing well and even the top ten for Slocum not beyond the bounds of possibility - the only real disappointment was Bubba. I did add one more play in running when Ricky Barnes got to -3 I got £40 on at around 100 - he really does rise to the occasion for the Majors! |
April 7th 10.41
A quick late bet for the Masters for round one leader - most people have tipped up Justin Rose and why not - he has led here in 3 of his 5 starts but 30/1 was a bit skinny - Sportingbet.com.au go 40/1 win only and its time to invest a little £25 - only two hours til tee off - can't wait!! |
April 3rd 20.57
I know I said I would be back tomorrow but have placed the remaining bets for the Masters so might as well put them up. I have added another outright bet and I think Heath Slocum might be a bit overpriced. He has been poor this season but in his last start he had his best ever finish at Bay Hill when 12th so maybe he has found something. He won last season in Georgia and won the year before in one of the top play off events. Whilst I do think he is too short to compete round here his finishes say otherwise - 33rd and 18th. I have backed him win only to trade - £35 at 650 average and £40 top 10 25/1 - he has a 12% top ten strike rate on tour.
It is nice to see all the books go up early with the first round leader markets and I have tried to follow a little pattern I have noticed in recent Open Championships and Masters - basically it entails following the veterans who seem to turn it on for one day. In 2010 at Augusta Couples led and Watson was 2nd after play concluded on Thursday and the year before Mize was 4th. In the Open Championship we all know Watsons exploits in 2009 - he was 2nd after round one and the year before Norman was 4th. There aren't a huge number of vets to chose from but I have picked four - Watson and Mize again and added O'Meara and Lyle especially as the latter won for the first time since 1992 a few weeks ago. At 500/1 it doesn't take a huge amount of money at the odds available but I have had £10 e/w on each one at those odds. |
April 2nd 21.19
Next week it’s the first Major of the year – the Masters from Augusta National. With Majors I tend to bet differently and build up a portfolio of bets leading up to the event, although betting antepost on golf can be fraught with danger with potential loss of form or injury, but sometimes the price makes it worthwhile. The Masters is quite a good event to bet ante post in, as it has a limited field, most of whom have already gained entry. It’s played at the same venue at the same time each year so it’s not such a lottery !
The bets I have listed below are those which I have struck over the last four months which have all been put up on the blog and I think the only one I have slight second thoughts on is Yang. I will also be looking at special bets - especially round one leader so will probably be back with those on Tuesday
20th December - Matt Kuchar £80 e/w 80/1
What I couldn’t understand was why the man who won the money list in 2010 was 80/1? Matt Kuchar really has been incredibly consistent for a long time – ever since he hit form in October last year when he won at Atunyote. His Major record isn't exceptional but isn't that bad – last year his finishes read 24/6/27/10 and 2010 was the first time he had played the Masters since 2002 when he missed the cut. He played Augusta twice as an amateur making the cut both times and in 1998 he was low amateur. Last year’s 24th place finish was achieved in difficult circumstances as he played the first two rounds with Tiger on his return to competition. He says he feels at home at Augusta as he went to Georgia Tech. He has maintained his strong form all year and is now generally a 33/1 shot. Expect a strong performance.
25th February Ryan Moore £50 e/w 125/1 + £50 180
Moore played Augusta twice as an amateur – in 2003 he made the cut and then in 2005 he finished 13th and was impressively first in the all round stats for the week! Last year he played for the first time in five years and was the best putter all week, closing with his best round at Augusta of 68 to finish 14th. I think with that experience under his belt and a clear affinity for the place, he will go well this year.
March 10th YE Yang £50 e/w 100/1 + £25 175
Yang is in much the same form he was in before he won the US PGA Championship in 2009 and is a player who is constantly underrated by the bookmakers – I have won more money on him than any other golfer. He has a solid Masters record and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he could build on last year’s 8th place finish.
March 30th Trevor Immelman £25 e/w 125/1 e/w
I have had an eye on Immelman for the last few months after his coach said he had never seen him swinging the club so well, but I did wait to see him showing that on the golf course before biting the bullet. Since his win in 2008 he has finished 20th and 14th to add to his 5th in 2005, so is clearly very much at home at Augusta.
April 1st Bubba Watson £100 e/w 40/1
I was watching the golf the other night when they were talking about Mickelson and his record at Augusta and the fact it suited the way he fades the ball and the fact that being left handed helps him play shots which suit Augusta. That got me thinking - what about other left handed players at the Masters - there are very few but Mike Weir has won the Green Jacket and even journeyman Steve Flesch has been 5th and 6th so perhaps there really is something in it! Some people doubt he has the nerve to win but he has won twice in the last nine months and been second in a PGA Championship so I beg to differ. He has had a couple of average starts round here but went to Georgia Tech so should feel at home in the conditions. |
