31 July 10.02
Yesterdays post quickly destroyed Wiegeles' chances! so today I will give the kiss of death to a player in the Womens British Open - currently in tied 8th on -2 is Hee Kyung Seo - a prolific winner in her native Korea and a winner in the US earlier this season - she is the next big Korean superstar - Skybet are still paying 4 places and is worth an investment in the outright at 66/1 and without Tseng at 33/1 |
30 July 14.34
Over in Ireland there is quite an interesting contender who will probably be consistently overpriced over the next few days - I managed to get him around 500 average but it seems people have forgotten Wiegeel won back to back just a few weeks ago. Fair enough they were not strong events but to win in consecutive weeks is not easy - also when he played Killarney ont he Challenge Tour he was 2nd heading into Sunday and eventually finished 4th |
27 July 13.34
A quick post re two golfers for this weeks main events - in Ireland Marc Warren might be worth a small punt at around 300/1 - he won on this course on the Challenge Tour and to be honest it is impossible to know when he is going to have a good week - I don't think even he knows!! The PGA tour goes to another new venue and Steve Wheatcroft seems to be finding his game again and could reward interest - 200 win 40 top 5 and 20 top 10 |
25 July 10.30
Not a lot to report from FBI - not a great start but a season is long. For subscribers to Select Service things are looking interesting again with Chris Nallen sitting t4th with a round to go in the Nationwide event.
I have taken a few small dabbles on Betfair for the Senior Open - a lead round Carnoustie is never big enough with the weather able to change so I have bet a few players who are currently 3rd on -2 Woosnam 36,Mize 40,Blake 55,Cochran 70 and some bigger Sluman 145,Allen 330,Dodds 435 |
24 July 10.19
Ironically the player who I had all the fuss about in the Nationwide is currently t6th - perhaps I should have taken the 500/1 win only!
Had a quick look at Canada this morning and there might be a bit of e/w value as the field is pretty bunched - last weeks winner Bettencourt is on -5 and when he hit form on the NW tour a couple of years ago he held it well and at 125/1 1/5 4 is worth a go. One shot better than that is Tambellini who won last time he teed it up in Canada - this week he is 1st for DA nad 2nd GIR - 150/1 same place terms
An exciting day on another front as FBI kicks off in the Scottish Challenge Cup this afternoon. |
22 July 21.15
Yesterday was a day full of angst and annoyance - one day bookmakers will realise that pissing clients off especially those that promote their business will eventually leave them with no business - there is a finite number of clients in this world and hopefully one day we will see more bookmakers who are prepared to act as bookmakers where not all clients lose but you get enough losers to cover the winners.
Anyway - I took the day off with the school holidays upon us and had a good day out - came home and found that the Select Service had a nice payout with Ahn tying for the round one lead at 66/1 - returns for this service are now very impressive and there are still places available - just send me an email. Full results here |
21 July 15.43
Not often I have to bin a bookmaker from my recommended list - the last one I did was Centrebet but today I have to with Stan James. I don't see why I should recommend a book that resorts to the following tactic. Earlier today I tried to place a bet on the phone on a Select Service bet - £10 ew at 500/1 - they offered me win only which I declined and instantly cut the price to 200/1 without laying a bet - disgraceful behaviour if you ask me. Then out of the blue I get an email saying I can no longer use their telephone betting service but I am welcome to use their online service - well thanks for nothing!! |
20 July 20.31
I tell a lie there is one player I would like to bet in Canada who I originally wanted to bet in this weeks Nationowide event but he has got into the main tour event instead - Mark Hensby seems to be finiding his form and this is the time of year when he used to flourish - gone for the 45/1 top 6 and 280/1 the win on Betfair |
19 July 20.24
I really don't see a lot of point getting heavily involved in either Scandinavia or Canada this week - we are a week on from a Major playing two courses with no form whatsoever so we will only be guessing. I will be concentrating on the small events for Select Service clients this week though if you really wanted a bet in Canada Mark Wilson seems to be finidng a bit of form after a poor first half of the season and 125/1 is maybe a bit on the generous side |
18 July 17.39
Rock came close to getting me out of trouble but not close enough - Oosthuizen really has been impressive this week even with the weather advantage he got. Its been an awful week - thank God for Dredge on day one (yet again!) - I could tip Quinney for Reno tonight as he has the second best final round scoring average on tour and has been 2nd here before - however that would just be the kiss of death for someone who can't win anyway!!!! |
18 July 09.00
Time to move on already to next week!! which actually looks pretty difficult with new courses being used on the European,PGA and Challenge tours!
I just don't understand where Oosthuizen has come from - poor form since his win and shocking form in the Open and at the Dunhill links. My one final chance lies in Hanson or Rock sneaking into a place and I guess Rock has been unlucky - played great for two days but had to contend with the loop in the worst of the weather on Friday |
17 July 12.00
The player that catches my eye in Reno is local lad Rich Barcelo who recorded his best ever PGA tour finish here in 07 when 4th. Sitting on -4 in jt 12th at the cut I will take a small risk at the 125/1 ew 1/5 4 and got 250 on Betfair |
17 July 09.38
What a difference a day makes and if it wasn't for Louis I wouldn't be feeling too bad - still I managed to back a few at silly prices yesterday - notably Lehman 320,Clarke 330,Taniguchi 1000 and if I was to sell all my greens on Betfair now I would break about even. All I can do is hope Peter Hanson can keep it going as I have £30 ew at 150/1 and am £15k green on Betfair.
I will have a closer look at Reno this morning now the cut has come - one guy I was interested in at the start has played quite well - more later.
|
16 July 12.42
I have just put the finishing touches to Football Betting Index and now the site is officially live - to visit simply go to www.footballbettingindex.com
The original proofing trial with the Secret Betting Club ran from 9/2/10 to the end of the season - 27/4/10. This produced 204 bets staking 896 points giving 93.53 points profit with an ROI of 10.4% and Stephen is confident over the course of the season of producing an ROI of at least 15% |
15 July 22.42
One of the last players to get to -6 and diminish the return slightly on Dredge was Peter Hanson but I am not going to complain too much as he was one of my six main bets - with Vijay Singh and Trevor Immelman also sat on -4 I can't really complain too much and tomorrow will be a very different day indeed.
The place payout on Dredge has taken us to over 100 points profit on the Select Service - the figures now read 106 points staked with a return of 212.3 a very healthy ROI of 100% - all results from day one are here |
15 July 18.02
Well I guess today hasn't gone too badly - the big priced outsiders have't fared well but Dredge was a round one play for select service clients - will have to wait til quite a bit later to see how many tie him on -6. Did add a couple of small plays during the round - most notably on my old favourite Yang at around the 220 mark. |
15 July 10.17
Well the Roberts dream was very short lived!!! Strangely the leading player of the ones I have backed is Robert Rock who I said on Monday was probably a bad bet in hindsight - this game can make a right fool of you sometimes. |
15 July 08.33
I had a weird dream this morning that I woke up and turned on the computer and Loren Roberts was leading the Open at -2 - got up and switched on the computer and sure enough he was!! Now -3 through 7 - hope he can keep it going - select service clients are on for the round one lead at 300/1 - would be a lovely start to the week. |
13 July 15.59
I haven't exactly done an Open preview for St Andrews but here are my free tips concentrating on six players who I think are value at the prices available.
Ben Curtis
Past winner Curtis seems to reserve his best form for the summer and is just coming into his best at the moment and a better final round at River Highlands would have seen him much shorter in the betting - but one poor final round doesn’t put me off (it certainly worked when following Tomasulo last week). It’s not like he he is a one hit wonder at the Open as he has also finished 8th at Carnoustie and 7th at Birkdale - 125/1 e/w and bigger on the exchanges
Peter Hanson
He has been in good form all season including a win, has a good record playing St Andrews in the Dunhill Links and is a former winner of the Brabazon as an amateur at Formby Links - worth a small punt e/w at 150/1 and I got 290 on Betfair for the win
Trevor Immelman
The South African has been plagued by injuries over the past few years and his best performance this year before last week was 14th at the Masters but his 11th at Loch Lomond could be a hint that he is back. His best ever Open finish was here at St Andrews when 15th in 05 and he has a good Dunhill Links record so is worth a small play at 200/1 e/w.
Yuta Ikeda
I always think bookmakers underestimate certain types of players for Majors - especially Japanese ones and I have had to get stuck into Yuta Ikeda. Last years leading money winner on the Japanese tour with an impressive four wins and he is only 24!! Due to those wins he has been able to play around the world this year but has struggled a bit flitting around but eventually found his putting stroke the other week when winning in Japan. He has made the cut at the Masters and the US Open and was 22nd at the WGC Doral event and I think he has a great future ahead of him. He may follow in the footsteps of another Junior World Golf champion - an event he won in 2003 at Torrey Pines. I have got stuck in to the win on Betfair to take out £100k and also availed myself of the generous Ladbrokes top ten price of 50/1
Loren Roberts
Everyone is talking about the golden oldies following the exploits of Watson and Norman over the last few years and the Open is an event where the oldies can shine as it takes skill and guile to plot your way round St Andrews so the big question is who will it be this year? Nick Faldo might well show up at some point though he is playing down his chances but I really fancy Loren Roberts might surprise. He actually has a good links pedigree as it suits his short accurate game as shown by his 7th here in 2005 when he was already 50 years old. In Senior Opens on links he has been 5th at Royal Aberdeen, 1st at Turnberry and 4th at Muirfield. He is also in good nick on the Champions tour finishing 3rd,1st and 5th in his last three outings. I have backed him 1000/1 ew (6 places), 80/1 top 10 and 33/1 top 20
Vijay Singh
The Fijian has a great record round St Andrews and in the Open and there have been glimpses of his best form over the past month but he really doesn’t look comfortable with the putter - still everything is in the price and at 180 on the exchanges I am prepared to take a risk the flat stick finally works.
|
12 July 22.17
Just a quick reminder - all the main bets for the big PGA/European events are always provided here on the blog but for the specialsit bets on the small tours you need to be a member of the Select Service - details and results here |
12 July 13.56
I thought it would be a good idea just to recap on my bets so far for the Open at St Andrews that have been already posted on the blog
Ben Curtis £20 ew 125/1 + £80 160/1 average + £10 100/1 without Woods
Vijay Singh £35 180/1 average
Peter Hanson £20 ew 150/1 + £50 300/1 average
Soren Hansen £20 445/1 average
Robert Rock £10 ew 300/1 + £40 390/1 average (a bad bet!!!!) |
11 July 21.05
I gave Sophie G the kiss of death but Select Service bet Tomasulo shot an amazing final round 61 to win by a shot !!! |
11 July 16.36
Well it looks like the long four day wait for a return only to get none can well and truly be applied to this week - whilst I got a return on Storm for round one leader I also had a small bet on him for a top 5 - and he has made a complete horlicks of the back nine to scupper any chance of that. I do hope Ed Molinari wins as I backed him ages ago for the Race to Dubain win and top 10 at 80/1 and 14/1.
I have had a small dabble on Sophie Gustafson for the US womens Open 80/1 1/4 3 - on this tough course anything could happen tonight.
Select Service clients have a chance of another payday tonight with Tomasulo going well in Canada on the Nationwide Tour and I can't wait for the Open to start on Thursday - I will have a preview ready in a few days time. |
9 July 10.01
Yesterday was one of those days that dragged and dragged - on the Select Service bets we were on Storm for round one in the Scottish Open - pipped on the end by Clarke - doubly frustrating when I keep badgering on about the Northern Irish link!!!! Then in the John Deere we had Chopra - denied a place by one shot - stiil sometimes it is best to confine the agony to one day rather than four!
If you want to see the results so far they are here |
8 July 11.01
I have been looking at the US Womens Open for most of the week - believe me it's going to be really tough and someone has put a few interesting prices up on Betfair - couldn't resist a few quid on Major winner Anna Nordquist at 65 and huge young talent Jennifer Song at 150/160 |
6 July 22.07
Spending most of my time this week looking forward to the Open and doing the Select Service bets but there is one player from left field that catches my eye at Loch Lomond - Michael Hoey. He is a player who has never really fulfilled his potential although he finally won last season on the main tour. There is defintely something in the inspiration between players from the same country - Clarke won todays JP McManus pro-am following on from McDowells' amazing week at Pebble Beach and Hoey grew up playing alongside the US Open champion. I vaguely remember Hoeys' final round 64 here when still an amateur back in 2001 where he had a chance to break the course record. Back in 2008 the three won very close together and Hoey returned to form in France last week - anyway - got some 470 average win,75 top 5 on Betfair and 50/1 top 5 and ties and 25/1 top 10 and ties. |
5 July 14.20
I have added one more player to my Open portfolio as I can't see him getting any longer and he doesn't actually play in Loch Lomond this week but is the only player under par in the morning wave of the JP McManus pro-am - Peter Hanson. He has been in good form all season including a win,has a good record playing St Andrews in the Dunhill Links and is a former winner of the Brabazon as an amateur at Formby Links - worth a small punt e/w at 150/1 and got 290 on Betfair for the win |
4 July 20.45
Well I have to go back on my word again re SPOTY and have a crack at Justin Rose for the award - I know he is not that popular though he can't be much worse than Andy Murray!! If he wins tonight he will probably go off 25/1 for the Open and if he wins that he will be around 2/1 for SPOTY so I think so taking 80/1 and 100/1 is probably a good thing |
4 July 14.44
I have tried not to chase losses over the past few days - there is no point in losing good money after bad especially when players seem to know I have tipped them and decide to play like absolute drains from that point onwards.
Still I have been very busy working on the new Football Betting Index tipping website - the tipster is champing at the bit to start and put into use his 20 years experience of betting on Scottish football - first bets will be out on the 23rd July and the website will be up and running in plenty of time for people to subscribe - obviously I will let you know when it is ready but if you do want a reminder simply send me an email with FBI reminder in the title |
2 July 10.40
Maybe the link with the Donald Ross designed course Sedgefield was right when looking at the AT&T - sadly it hasn't helped Stadler but Pettersson had been 1st and 5th there,Moore 1st,Mayfair 2nd and Overton 2nd and all of them had good rounds yesterday even Ogilvie won there years ago when it was used on the Nationwide Tour. There is one other player who was 2nd at Sedgefield in 08 and came back to form last time out Scott McCarron - worth a nibble at 120/14 win and place |
2 July 10.40
I woke up this morning to see Shane Lowry racing through the field at five under for the day but was swiftly brought back down to earth with a thud with back to back double bogeys!
Moving on to the Open - what price should a player be who is riding high on the leaderboard this week and has gone 5/4/4 in his last three European tour events? Well I don't think he should be 300/1! Robert Rock even has some good links form with his 2nd in the Irish Open at County Louth last year played in typical links conditions - I can't see that price lasting |
29 June 22.17
Was going to give the AT&T a miss being a new course this week at Aronimink but like Dave Tindall have gone for the course designer angle. Donald Ross also designed Sedgefield where Kevin Stadler has an excellent record - lost in a play off last year and 7th in 2007 and he also won on the Nationwide Tour at Irondequoit one of the other few Ross courses to be used on tour. He has had three top 10's this season and whilst he hasn't been in the best of form lately he has the ability to pull out a good performance form nowhere - 200/1 e/w and 20/1 top 10 are worth a poke where no-one has any course advantage. |
29 June 13.55
I have always thought Le Golf National has a "linksy" feel to it and it does seem to be a bit of a specialists track and I have gone with one player who loves links golf. Shane Lowry famously won the Irish Open as an amateur last year and promptly turned professional - he struggled a bit to start with but this was the scene of his first paycheck. He proved with his 4th in Abu Dhabi earlier this season that that win was no fluke and has made his last eight cuts - last week he was looking at the weekend off until he birdied four of his last six holes and ended up playing as good as anyone over the last three rounds. I have backed him e/w at 125/1 & 150/1 and to trade on Betfair at 200/1 |
28 June 15.41
The less said about last week the better - especially knowing Verplank could go low over the weekend at River Highlands yet still failing to get involved was a poor decision and part of me was rather grateful that Watson finally broke his duck.
I am still looking at the Open and will add plays as and when I think the value jumps out - and I don't see why Soren Hansen should be ten times the price he will start at for this weeks French Open. If he has really put his "tax problems" behind him he could well prove to be a great trade and I have invested £40 at 390 |
27 June 08.45
Well I got one call right for the Open - I can't see Ben Curtis going off any bigger than 80/1 - on the other hand Vijay Singh...........!!
I had a quick look at the BMW this morning and spotted something a bit odd - the last time Cabrera-Bello shot 71,67,66 he shot 60 in the final round in Austria and won!! - worth a few quid at 120 on Betfair for some interest before the football. |
25 June 13.05
I am keeping a very close eye on leaderboards at the moment looking for potential plays for the Open - Vijay said he was back and didn't play that badly at Pebble and at 185 on the exchanges I had to get involved for St Andrews as he currently leads on the PGA tour |
24 June 22.05
Well the US Open didn't finish that long ago but we have to move on to the next Major - the Open at St Andrews in a few weeks time and one player that is worth backing now as he is coming into form is Ben Curtis. I have taken some 150 win and 125/1 each way - I doubt very much he will start in three figures |
22 June 12.37
I have long been a fan of Felipe Aguilar and do think one day he could win a lot more on the European Tour and he might get an opportunity this week. Last year he was 4th in the BMW International on the back of five straight missed cuts - this year he arrives in much better form.He was 36th in Madrid but 5th in the all round stats and in Portugal was 13th and 4th in the stats - sandwiched between those two was a m/c in Wales but he had a quad bogey in round one which blew his chances. He has won in Germany before on the Challenge Tour and I think he is worth a bet - have had some on the win 240 average on Betfair and then top 5 and ties 25/1 |
22 June 10.50
I remember a few years ago when McDowell won on the Euro tour it seemed to inspire something in the Northern Irish contingent (much as it does with the French) and soon Clarke and Hoey won - well something similar may happen with Clarke who seems to be a golfer who needs "inspiration" these days. Armed with a new set of shafts in his irons and a new caddie on the bag he played three excellent rounds in Portugal to finish 6th and the last time he played this course in 2004 he occupied that position. I have backed him e/w 60/1 with Jenningsbet who offer 6 places but the 66/1 Betfred is more than fair (plus a bit at 85 on Betfair) |
21 June 09.28
Another US Open done and dusted and the place part of the e/w bet on Love scuppered by an absolute shocker of a shot on 17. Last nights result brought back some interesting thoughts and memories - two years since Mediate in the US Open, three years since Havrets' win in the Scottish Open - both brought lots of money to my betting balance. These are the big wins I have been missing over the last twelve months - last year Rhys Wood in the Open and Yang in the US PGA were the best results of the year so I think it still makes sense to concentrate on the Majors and I will keep going with the specialist bets on round one leaders and the minor tours - it's only a matter of time - I keep telling myself!! |
19 June 22.59
I have sat here tonight and watched the last two hours coverage and eventually pulled the trigger on Davis Love e/w at 150/1 1/5 4. Whilst the front nine is throwing up some chances the back nine is playing brutal and with the wind up the sun out and late tee times meaning the poa greens are going to grow I wouldn't be surprised if +1 led at the end of today and +4 will be in the top 10. Love follows in the tradition of every US Open winner at Pebble having won the pro-am - indeed he has won it twice - hopefully I will wake up to something nicer than I did this morning! |
19 June 11.02
What a difference a few hours makes - went to bed last night not feeling too bad about things - had just laid some Fujita at 50/55, Barnes and Verplank were up there and BVP not far behind - certainly didn't look that way this morning!!! Who knows what will happen today but I can see Mickelson finally winning his US Open. |
18 June 10.22
I didn't get to see much of the first round yesterday due to being out and then tucked up in bed! I guess my position is one of - could have been a lot better/could have been a lot worse but I have four players sat on +1 who all played in the morning which actually played 0.75 shots harder than the afternoon. The only thing I have done is laid some Fujita as his DA/GIR stats were woeful and he won't shoot +1 again playing like that |
|
15 June 15.46
Its time for the second Major of the year and the US Open returns to one of its best venues – Pebble Beach. There have been a few changes to the course so don't expect anyone to run away with it like Woods did back in 2000 and also don't expect the course to look like it does at the beginning of each year for the annual pro-am. I really think Woods might well struggle and I haven't seen enough positive signs from him over the last few months and although Dustin Johnson has won the last two pro-ams he will find this a different kettle of fish. When we last saw Mickelson he was hitting the ball an absolute mile – in all directions – but you simply wouldn't rule him out finding what was required this week.
The one thing I will say about the US Open is that surprises happen – last years top three Glover,Barnes and Duval were hardly expected and I remember the “battle of wounded knee” vividly from 2008 having had some decent sized bets on Rocco Mediate at up to 600/1. Other recent winners such as Cabrera and Campbell were hardly near the top of the betting tree so expect outsiders to contend. What I have done is picked out the players that I can see contending and what the best markets for them are – obviously looking at value from a betting point of view. Underneath I have then listed all my bets with books and positions on Betfair
First of all the two players I bet antepost and getting a bit more value knowing the prices would shorten
Stewart Cink - seems to reserve some of his best play for the Summer and plays especially well on seaside links with small greens - his two wins at Harbour Town are testament to that plus of course he has a good Open record obviously winning at Turnberry (was also 6th Carnoustie). He is one player who doesn't play the Pebble Beach pro-am but I would swerve players who do well in that event - the course set up will be totally different and it is a different time of year and when Pebble was last used for the US Open he was 8th having opened up with a very poor 77. He would love to add to the one Major he has and would dearly love to win a US Open - he came so close at Southern Hills in 2001.
Bo Van Pelt – a bet based on his current form and there really is not a lot to add to the obvious - if someone else had the finishes below recently he would be sitting amongst the favourites
Verizon heritage 3rd
Quail Hollow 5th
Players Championship 4th
Crowne Plaza 10th
Memorial 3rd
Players added this week
Ricky Barnes - I picked out and had a decent bet on Barnes in the pro-am earlier this year and tbh he was disappointing – although his best round a 69 came at Pebble Beach. Basically Ricky grew up playing Pebble Beach and other courses around the area (a bit like Tom Watson) and much of his best form has been on courses in California. After last years 2nd place finish in the US Open he didn't do a lot but this season he is finally starting to fulfil his potential with a 10th at the Masters,5th at Harbour Town and then 7th and 3rd in his last two starts
Vijay Singh - IF he is back to his best (as he says he is) then he has an excellent US Open and Pebble Beach pedigree and around 150 on Betfair could be a very good trading price
Scott Verplank – another player who has been if fine form of late 13th at the Players and 5th in the last two events of the Texas swing. Normally I would say he couldn't win a US Open due to his length off the tee but this is shorter and will favour his accurate play and he can boast two top ten finishes in US Opens in his last six attempts so that is probably the best market for him.
Hiroyuki Fujita – well what can I say apart from what an insulting price for the best Japanese player at the moment in the field. He is turning into the Japanese equivalent of Kenny Perry or Vijay Singh – since turning 40 last June he has won three times. In Japan this year he has finished 11/1/2/3/27/2 – incredibly consistent and he has also won the Open qualifier held in Malaysia and the US Open qualifier by an impressive five shots. Far East players have been doing better in Majors over the last few years – Tanihara placed in the Open a few years back and Katayama placed at Augusta last year – plus of course we had Yang winning the PGA Championship - perhaps he has been inspired by the Korean. He is one of the most accurate players on his home tour and one of his wins a few years ago came on the Southern Links at Okinawa a course which is very similar to Pebble Beach.
Eric Axley – a bit of a stab in the dark – says he is playing well (not borne out by his results!) - but he hosed up last Monday in the most competitive qualifier – maybe he can repeat the top 10 he got at Torrey Pines two years ago when he played really well for three rounds.
Tom Watson – well after watching him at Turnberry last season I simply cannot leave him out of the equation. In a sense Pebble Beach is similar to Turnberry for Watson as he has probably more experience than any other player in the field at the venue. It will be hard and fast so he won't be disadvantaged by length – he can plot his way round and with his showings at Dubai and the Masters this year you really couldn't rule out a complete fairytale – ignore him at your peril at such big prices!
Betfair - winner with Woods
Bo Van Pelt £70 150
Stewart Cink £30 190
Ricky Barnes £30 160
Vijay Signh £15 190
Scott Verplank £15 280
Tom Watson £25 650
Hiroyuki Fujita £95 950
Betfair winner without Woods
Stewart Cink £25 110
Bookmaker Bets
Stewart Cink £40 ew 100/1 ¼ 5
Bo Van Pelt £40 ew 100/1 ¼ 5
Ricky Barnes £20 ew 125/1 ¼ 6
Scott Verplank £25 top 10 14/1
Hiroyuki Fujita £20 top 5 100/1 + £10 ew top ROW 100/1
Eric Axley £10 top 10 66/1
Tom Watson £10 ew 400/1 ¼ 6 |
15 June 10.04
I do find the prices on Hiroyuki Fujita surprisingly insulting and have backed him accordingly outright on Betfair, top 5 and top ROW to take out around £100k - more on why later. |
14 June 16.44
Next player to add to my outright betting portfolio has to be Ricky Barnes after what I said about him for the AT&T and I think 125/1 ew with 6 places is more than fair (+some on at 170 win only Betfair) - if you can do try and get on at the books with 6 places - I know how many golfers I have backed over the years who have finished 6th!! |
14 June 14.59
Sometimes a price on Betfair just stands out and grabs your attention and it did this morning when I saw 190 Vijay Singh and had to have a small dabble - IF he is back to his best (as he says he is) then he has an excellent US Open and Pebble Beach pedigree. It's going to be a busy two days but I am biding my time in trying to decide what best markets to play my selections in. |
13 June 22.24
Well it seems like I made the right call on Bo Van Pelt - yesterday he was still 140 on Betfair - today I have managed to lay some as low as 50!!! - it really was too big a price and the bookmakers have been adding him to their markets at around the 66/1 mark. Apart from the two I have mentioned so far I have another eight players who will be worth looking at in various markets - more tomorrow as more books go up with specialist markets. |
11 June 13.07
A quick update on what sort of profit the Select Service Bets have returned over the first month - 56 points staked 99.25 returned plus two mentions at 500/1 and 125/1 which placed - not too shabby for £75 a month! If you want to see a run down of the results send me an email - they are all independently proofed. |
10 June 21.59
OK - second bet for next weeks US Open (after Cink) has to be this man - if someone else had the finishes below recently he would be sitting amongst the favourites
Verizon heritage 3rd
Quail Hollow 5th
Players Championship 4th
Crowne Plaza 10th
Memorial 3rd
How the hell can Bo Van Pelt be 100/1 ew?? - have had £40 ew plus been matched for £70 at 150 on Betfair - with any luck I will be able to trade if he can maintain his current form.
Select Service customers just missed out on a big pay day with Manley in round one in Portugal at 150/1 - still a nice place return |
9 June 23.09
I have been working all day on the US Open and it is a surprise that more books haven't priced up all the runners so far as they are known so I guess its hats off to Ladbrokes and Paddy Power for their early efforts at pricing every player. I must admit the more I look at it the more I am really looking forward to it and I have some very good ideas for bets - what I will try and do is put bets up as I come up with them over the coming 5 days and also on Tuesday do a full written preview |
9 June 11.00
Apart from the select service first round bets I really do feel uninspired by this weeks events so have concentrated on preparing for the US Open next week - I do love the Majors and it certainly doesn't feel like two years ago we were cheering on Rocco at some massive prices - hopefully I can find next weeks "Rocco"!
I have had a look at this weeks LPGA event - the State Farm Classic and have a feeling Se Ri Pak is overpriced around 50/1. She won her last full field event a month ago and her best performance last year was a 2nd place finish here at Panther Creek - best prices available here |
7 June 10.17
At last I have found the holy grail to finding winners on the PGA and European tours and it really is quite simple - pick any player who you think won't win an event because they either never have or haven't for a long time and back them! The list is growing longer by the week for this season - yesterday we added Justin Rose to Luke Donald,Simon Khan,Adam Scott,Fred Hed,Tim Clark etc.
Stewart Cink completed his warm up for Pebble Beach with a solid performance and I think he is peaking at the right time - I think he will be tipped up a lot next week and would be surprised if he went off bigger than 66/1 |
5 June 11.17
Its Derby day today - last year I would have been interested - this year with the demise of Horse Betting Index I can't say I am bothered in the least - I must admit the demise of HBI is probably one of the best things to happen to me.
Have got a little involved in Wales this morning jumping on Lynn at 500/1 as he started his romp through the field - hopefully the leaders will stumble like yesterday. |
4 June 23.07
A quick post re Cink for the US Open - I really do think looking at his stats so far in this weeks Memorial he is definitely heading in the right direction and will probably be a big steamer
On the select servce bet front I did put out a mention for Nielsen in the Champions tour who has finished t4th at 125/1 - sadly with umpteen others!! |
1 June 21.53
A bit more on Laird for the Memorial - he definitely seems to be a player to get on side once he hits form and his 10th place last week seems to have been inspired by his qualification for the Open which he was thrilled at. Whilst he has no course form for Muirfield Village he does have a solid history at Jack Nicklaus designed courses with plenty of low rounds. I think the odds reflect the fact he has no course form but I wouldn't count that against him as he is a winner on tour and has a solid top 6 strike rate even in good quality fields. |
1 June 18.23
For those of you wondering how the select service is going - so far 35 points staked with a profit of 23.75 points - so a pretty good return but a low strike rate (this doesn't include last weeks mention when we had a 500/1 shot tied 5th but only two books priced up so not an official bet) There are still a couple of places remaining if anyone wants to join just send me an email. |
1 June 13.02
As yesterday was a bank holiday I decided to join a lot of other people and actually have a day off for a change! Anyway - quick post - looking at this weeks Memorial - will explain more later but have had a good bet on Martin Laird - win only on Betfair at 280 and top 6 with Stan james at 33/1
Also in view of what I said about Cink last week for the US Open I was lucky and got in early at 75 for this weeks event - expect a solid couple of weeks from last seasons Open Champion |
30 May 12.14
Last night Belgium in the Eurovision performed much the same as my golfers - 2nd or 3rd with a few "holes" to go only to stumble over the line just out the frame having been laid at 1/5!!
Have looked again at the Colonial - Pat Perez has finished with a 65 and a 66 the last twice he has played here to finish 4th and 6th and another round like that would possibly get him in the frame - will take a chance at the 16/1 on Betfair (plus a token bet at 400 on the win. |
29 May 21.58
I have managed to sit here all night without a drink and follow Eurovision - and I don't think Ukraine will be winning but there are always surprises - I really can't see Germany winning even after a mountain of money but I think Belgium might go well and have backed them at 30/1 win and 6/1 top 4
On the golf front Pettersson got off to a blistering start and I gave quite a bit back at 10 - thank God as he went to pieces after that - bit miffed the guy I mentioned for the Senior Major is winning without a penny on from me DOH!! |
29 May 17.35
There has been one player I have been waiting to back for the US Open at Pebble Beach all year but have been waiting to see a turnaround in his form and I think I am now beginning to see it - Stewart Cink. Last week he started hitting the ball well at the Byron Nelson and he has continued that this week at the Crowne Plaza. So why back him for Pebble Beach? Well quite simply he seems to reserve some of his best play for the Summer and plays especially well on seaside links with small greens - his two wins at Harbour Town is testament to that plus of course he has a good Open record obviously winning at Turnberry (was also 6th Carnoustie). He is one player who doesn't play the Pebble Beach pro-am but I would swerve players who do well in that event - the course set up will be totally different and it is a different time of year and when Pebble was last used for the US Open he was 8th having opened up with a very poor 77. He would love to add to the one Major he has and would dearly love to win a US Open - he came so close at Southern Hills in 2001. There is another reason for backing him now (apart from his upturn in form ) he also goes particularly well at the Memorial which is next weeks event so his odds could tumble. I have placed the following bets over the last day or two
£80 ew 100/1 outright
£25 winner without Woods Betfair 110/1
£30 winner with Woods Betfair 190/1 |
29 May 12.59
Ah sod it - I'm not going anywhere tonight and have been drawn by the lure of Eurovision - looking for an outsider with a squeak - Ukraine e/w 80/1 1/4 4 and a bit at 120 on Betfair - best prices here |
28 May 11.30
Well Steve Flesch had a bit of a mare and shot +3 and Gary Hallberg got off to a shocker when +4 through 4 but fought back incredibly well with five birdies to sit in t12th on -1 - I also mentioned Loeffler to select service clients for round one - finished t5th - not bad for a 500/1 shot!
I have had a close look at the Crowne Plaza this morning and three catch my eye with early tee times today
Carl Pettersson - Swedes going well, three time PGA winner two off the lead 75/1 win Betfair
Cameron Beckman - -3 in round one, 5th last week and a winner this year 220/1 win and 28/1 top 5 inc ties
Tim Herron - also -3 round one, has won and been 2nd here before 320/1 win and 25/1 top 5 inc ties |
27 May 11.07
Nothing really exciting in this post I'm afraid except to say it's funny how things can change from one year to the next - in the past I was mad about betting on Eurovision and would spend hours looking at it but since it has become a massive betting heat and the format has changed I have lost all interest and haven't looked at it at all this year. I still like to mess around with the Miss World and Miss Universe betting when it comes around and still a bit of SPOTY but perhaps I need something else to occupy my mind during quiet days!!
I have still been looking around at betting blogs and it seems that a lot that have sprung up have disappeared - it is difficult to keep them going but I do think putting your thoughts down helps keep you sane - such as this one http://bfal.blogspot.com/ - and when things are going well it is a lot easier to keep blogging - hopefully he will succeed in his quest long term. |
25 May 22.31
I have been looking pretty closely today at this weeks Senior PGA which comes from Colorado on the new course designed by Crenshaw and Coore who also did Kapalua.
One of the keys will be playing at altitude so I have concentrated on local players or those that live at altitude, Jay Don Blake is from Utah and could go well and you just can't rule out Romero but I will take a chance with big priced outsider Gary Hallberg having read this article http://www.denverpost.com/golf/ci_15148608 He has played well in the wind recently shooting a course record in Mississippi in very windy conditions and they have had 50 pmh gusts on practice days this week. He played well at the US Senior Open in 08 at Broadmoor Colorado when 14th shooting three very good rounds out of four and at 250/1 represents possible value - I took the 300/55/22 with Extrabet. |
24 May 19.38
Quickly glossing over the shocking final round from Canizares and moving swiftly on to the Crowne Plaza event - one early outright price I just can't see staying around is anything in three figures for Steve Flesch. For a player coming nicely into form playing an event where players often repeat win then this is simply far too big a price.
Best prices available here Crowne Plaza |
23 May 08.57
I decided to have a quick study of the main two events to detect any final round outright value - after Karlssons' round yesterday I guess anything is possible at Wentworth! After looking down the field the one that catches my eye on Betfair for the BMW is Canizares. His final round scoring since the tour returned to mainland Europe has been 68,68,68,66 and has included two top 5 finishes and a 10th improving his final round position every time.He has improved with every round this week as he has got used to the greens and the 12/1 for a top 5 is definitely value plus a small bet at 500/1 for the magic round! Will be back later if I spot everything for the Byron.
Almost forgot to add - I don't think I will be getting 600/1 on Chris Wood for this years Open lol |
20 May 21.18
Its not been the best day for me at Wentworth as I underestimated what effect the course changes would have as they were basically changes to all the greens and they seem to have made quite a difference.
I have continued all day changing the bookmakers page which has now gone live - I hope you find it useful.
|
20 May 12.09
Apologies for the lack of stuff on here this week - I have been busy revamping the Bookmakers page of this site as I haven't really touched it for some time and it is time to cut out some dead wood (bookmakers I don't use anymore) and add a few more - plus some of the comments are no longer applicable.This should all be complete over the next few days.
I am also going to change the links page and one thing I am always interested to read are other betting blogs - a few weeks ago saw the demise of one of the better ones out there JP's but if you know of any please let me know. |
18 May 10.16
As you are aware the vast majority of my bets will now be given out to Select Service clients only but sometimes I will put stuff up here for the outright markets and there is one guy who I think is overpriced in the BMW PGA Championship and that is Stephen Dodd. He has found a rich vein of form recently due some vastly improved putting and has been 2nd,6th and 7th in his last three outings and he has a habit of maintaining his form for decent periods when it arrives. He has won three pretty big events on the tour and wouldn't be phased by this one and when he hit form last season he was 4th at Wentworth so I just cannot see why he is 100/1 + in the betting |
16 May 09.38
Well that gave Peter Gustafsson the kiss of death yesterday!! Moving swiftly on to Texas - I got Wetterich onside yesterday morning at 60/1 ew and I really cannot see why on earth he is a much bigger price that Nitties and Jones who have never won a thing between them - will see how things pan out with Brett. They are going to try and play 36 holes today and I have do have a small play in mind on one player but am not on yet - more later this morning.
Looking at next week - I have some decent bets lined up for the Select Service for which there are now only four places left - if you want to join just get in touch. |
14 May 22.28
With no play today in Texas I can't really look at any outright plays at the cut so I have had a look at Mallorca and with the wind due to blow tomorrow anyone would think with the prices quoted there is just one round to go! - in tricky conditions anything can happen over 36 holes and I do think Peter Gustafsson is overpriced at 40 on Betfair. He does tend to hold his form well and will be suitably inspired by fellow Swede Fred Hed - I just hope he is inspired more than Pelle Edberg who has a habit of throwing in a howler at some point. |
14 May 21.27
It's quite amazing how quickly your fortunes can change - I had a small bet on Murphy at 400/1 and he was within two shots of the lead through seven holes - two hours later he had missed the cut!! - then again at least he earnt me some money after day one! |
13 May 19.10
Well the select service clients nearly got off to an absolute blinder with Gary Murphy a 2 pt ew bet at 150/1 - shot into an early lead at -4 through 7 but then made 4 bogeys in 5 holes before rallying with a couple of late birdies and we had to endure a long day before finally declaring a tie for 3rd with 3 other players and meaning a 50 point profit was secured in the very first week!! If you want to get top quality bets like that just get in touch. |
12 May 12.42
After just two days half of the ten positions on the select service have now been filled - the cost is £75 per month - all results will be posted here so keep ay eye out for how things pan out tomorrow |
12 May 10.43
I have just been through the whole field in Mallorca looking at the odds for the outrights and all I can say is I'm glad I don't have to write a column with two or three selections as absolutely nothing stands out from a betting perspective. I guess you could say at least Levet is a fairly regular winner and keep an eye out for Andrew Willey who is having a consistent season but I couldn't see him winning.
The same could be said of Texas and here it is even worse with no course form to go on either though it looks like it is going to be a stern test and if you are looking for someone to give you a bit of interest at a big price Bobby Gates could be your man.
The course being used for the Japanese PGA event looks fascinating http://www.golf-in-japan.com/course.php?ID=2034 but I can't find anything about past tournaments.
The European Seniors are at Stapleford Park and Sam Torrance will feel right at home as he has close ties with the course but as he hasn't won on that tour since March last year 6/1 does look very skinny.
The Nationwide event this week is a multi course pro-am where former Clemson Tigers have a good record so Kyle Stanley should go well but I would want 50/1 about him considering his form on tour so far.
So all in all a pretty dull week for outright betting - maybe I will have a look at the cut mark. |
11 May 18.23
The new select service was launched today with the first bet already sent out - if you want to join then send me an email - there are still places available but these are strictly limited to ten - info@sportsbettingindex.com |
10 May 13.31
Just a quick reminder to those people looking at this weeks Texas Open - its on a new course - designed by Norman with Garcia consulting. Personally I won't be betting on it before the off but to give you some help in picking out a few bets -
"Unlike other Tournament Player Club properties built for spectators, as well as golf, the Oaks course fits tightly inside the 2,800-acre Cibilo Canyons development east of U.S. 281, snugly up against the trunks of oak trees and stems of native grasses. There are relatively few spectator mounds and open lawn areas, common at venues such as TPC Sawgrass, home of the Players Championship in Florida, or TPC Scottsdale in Phoenix.That's part of what makes the Oaks course so different in look and feel. But the prevailing design elements — large, sweeping green complexes with gaping sand bunkers — mimic the golfing ground of a different continent, suggesting a sensibility found in Norman's homeland Australia, particularly the sandbelt courses near Melbourne." |
9 May 16.25
Sadly Russell couldn't muster another birdie on the back 9 and lost out by one shot to eventual winner Sam Walker. I think these rare bets for minor events will be left to the select private service for the future as they do tend to be few and far between and very profitable - I have hardly put any bets up for the Challenge Tour but with this ew 2nd at 80/1,Vanegas' win at 200/1 and Claverie 2nd at 250/1 I think less is definitely more!
Talking of which I still have a few spots available for the select service just send an email to info@sportsbettingindex.com |
9 May 14.19
Well so far he has done totally what I predicted - +3 on the front 9 and he has just had back-to-back birdies at 11 and 12 to get within 2 of the lead. |
9 May 10.05
Raymond Russell heads into the final round with a slender one shot lead - I expect him to drop a few shots early as he dislikes the front 9, plus the added pressure, he did drop down the leaderboard in Spain a few weeks ago but came back strongly to win - here's hoping he can do the same in France. |
6 May 23.32
Well it looks like Crane and Perry have come up just shy of tying for the lead at Sawgrass. I have been paper trading and tweaking and playing these round one leader markets for a while and there are certainly some interesting results this season with the 31 selections showing a profit of around 60% if they had all been backed each way - maybe it's time for a select service for a handful of people - if you would be interested drop me a line - bookmakers need not apply lol |
5 May 19.13
A couple of further bets for this weeks golf - starting with the Italian Open - if it actually stops raining! In my mind Gareth Maybin will go very well this week but won't be carrying any of my money at 28/1 as a a non winner on tour so far. I will have a small play on Roope Kakko for round one leader - 8th here last year with a 2nd round 64 he often gets off to a fast start. He hasn't played much this season partly due to weather and playing opportunities plus becoming a dad again but he was 10th on the Challenge Tour in Columbia. £15 ew 125/1 - best prices here
In the Players I will just stick with Ames outright but a couple of small win bets on the round one market on Betfair - Crane £15 85 and Perry £15 110.
On the Challenge tour in France I really fancy Raymond Russell to go well - dogged by a shoulder injury he has been playing the small tours in recent years and won in Spain a couple of weeks ago. He plays all his best golf on windy links - his best ever result was probably his 4th at Birkdale in the Open and this weeks course is definitely a tricky coastal one. He was 6th on his only visit here in 07 and last week in Turkey led after round one maintaining his good recent form. I wanted £25 ew at 80 but had to settle for £5 ew and £10 ew 66/1 - the few books that quote this market are here
Good luck this week
Ian |
4 May 17.00
Well nothing yet to add to the one bet - will wait for tee times for the Players before considering round one bets and the Italian Open is in danger of being washed out.
In the meantime here is a little poem that always seems to help me through the tough times and is very appropriate for my current state of mind
A man with too little has never enough and must always strive after more,
A man with enough has more than enough and must daily give thanks for his share.
I had too little but now I've enough and that's more than enough for me,
If you have too little, I wish you the same and a life that is tranquil and free.
But if you have enough and it's never enough and fretting you strive after more,
Then I wish you well in your restless hell, for you'll get nothing more from me. |
3 May 19.36
No birthday present yesterday but I will quickly interrupt my Bank Holiday day off to say that Stephen Ames is way overpriced for the Players Championship. His record here is well documented with a win,2nd and 5th and interestingly in November he recorded his second win in the Childrens Miracle in Florida. His form this season has been very solid - at the Verizon he was 3rd with a round to go and also was 6th at the Transitions in Florida. In his 54 starts in the state he now has 3 wins and roughly a 10% top 5 strike rate and a 25% top 10 strike rate - how on earth can he be 66/1 let alone 80/1 - big bet for me all the best prices are here - back tomorrow |
2 May 11.03
Happy birthday to me - what would I like as a present - a Colsaerts win and a Harman place would be nice - surely thats not a lot to ask? |
