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august 26th 18.15
Apologies but have run out of time this week so here’s a brief summary of this weeks bets
UK Championship
Jorge Campillo - 80/100 e/w – never played Celtic Manor well but something clicked in the final three rounds last week, holds his form well and won twice in the past 18 months
David Dixon – FRL 125/1 + £30 Betfair 350, not sure where last week came from but he’s a good player off tough tracks and has led here at the Belfry before after round one albeit years ago
Garrick Higgo – 125/1 e/w late entrant last seen finishing 6th in Austria, prior to lockdown had won the Sunshine Tour Championship, a three figure price just “feels” wrong
BMW Championship
Bryson Dechambeau 16/1 win only – just because of his US Amateur win here in 2016
Robby Shelton  - 250/1 e/w + 100/1 e/w FRL + Betfair (see below) flew through the field on Sunday late – 6 under last 6 holes to get in. Played well in the US Amateur here and one on his first ever College start (replaced Justin Thomas) in the 2013 Fighting Illni here at Olympia Fields
Cameron Champ – on Betfair – also a past winner of that college event
Betfair position
Dechambeau +900
Champ + 5300
Shelton +15,300
Field -135
LPGA NW Arkansas
Stacey Lewis 45/1 e/w – her win two weeks ago was his first since 2017 and first since winning here in 2014. Standing dish around her “home” track and with confidence high should go well
Korn Ferry Tour Championship
Jose de Jesus Rodriguez 60/1 e/w + 60 win to trade. Winner here in 2018 when a normal tour event he has been knocking on the door of late. Second in Missouri, 7th after three rounds in Portland and six after three in Idaho, been let down by poor final rounds but winner in waiting and why not here where has won before.
august 19th 12.40
Last week was looking like an unmitigated disaster and Sunday night I was staring at a four figure loss on the week. The horses had done OK returning a small profit although it was time to knock the Irish stuff on the head, over the Irish sea it seems that if you don’t know what’s really going on then you don’t really know anything. Some alarming drifts on horses that then ran no sort of race was all the proof I needed to stop losing money over there.
Maybe I just got lucky on Sunday night having read the Jim Herman tweet that he had won just after the last two times he had played golf with Donald Trump stuck in my mind when he moved into contention and with a small win bet and some trading on Betfair I managed to reduce the loss back down to a reasonable £150. It’s often weeks like that which make the difference to the year as a whole and certainly helps the mindset.
Onto this week and a pretty full schedule, I didn’t get heavily involved in the two UK events this week and with the wind set to blow hard I am glad I didn’t
Wales Open
The one player that caught my eye with the early prices was Sami Valimaki and I was lucky to get on board at 100/110 win only on the exchanges and a bit of 100/1 e/w with the rest at 80/1 e/w. He had missed his first three cuts since the restart but sauntered through the field at the weekend at Celtic Manor with a 65/66 so finish t6th. His win in Oman came on the back of a 7th place and with three wins on the Pro Golf tour last year this kid is going places
Womens Open
Set to be hit by really strong winds this could be a total lottery and the only play I have had is Georgia Hall at 50/1 e/w. Having won at Royal Lytham in 2018 Woburn probably wasn’t the ideal venue to defend her title but another links test is deal. Back in 2017 she was 9th and 3rd at Kingsbarns and Dundonald Links at the Open and Scottish Open and the wind blew in both those weeks
Northern Trust Open
The first of the Fedex Cup playoff events where a rich golfer will become considerably richer, I have gone in three handed
Paul Casey 45/1 e/w (7 & 8 places) and 60 win Betfair. Not a player I back very often but he simply seemed a big price having finished 2nd at the US PGA and been 2nd and 4th at Boston before.
Billy Horschel 60/1 e/w (6 places) and 80 win Betfair. As Paul McGinley loves to say he has momentum after his 2nd last week. He did very little wrong on Sunday and was beaten by Herman rather than losing it. He has hit form before in the playoffs and his 2nd here in 2014 was the catalyst to winning the next two playoff events and a rather large cheque.
Richy Werenski 600 win Betfair and 40/1 top 5 inc ties. Not a huge bet, but he just seems a big price for a player who prior to a missed cut at the US PGA was 3rd and 1st. It’s a home game in Massachusetts this week though the lack of a crowd could actually be a positive.
Champions Tour Charles Schwab Series
A new event fitted into the calendar although the venue has been used for the pairs event the last few years but from what I can gather only a few rounds are played on this course for that then a par 3 course. Anyway – I am sticking with Paul Broadhurst who didn’t play too badly last week @ 66/1 e/w. He won the pairs event with Kirk Triplett in 2018 so will have positive vibes about the venue. ** please note this starts today.
Nationwide Childrens Hospital Championship
I have had some success in this over the years, it’s a tough long track that suits the big hitters so always look for young player who hit it a mile and who putt well and make a lot of birdies. DD = driving distance PA = putting average BA = birdie average
Davis Riley aged 23 20th DD 6th PA 2nd BA – looking for his third win of the year for automatic promotion, notable he won on two of the tougher tracks this year. Main bet 25/1 e/w and 29/1 win only on exchanges
Ollie Schniedejans aged 27 19th DD 1st PA 1st BA – was disappointing last week missing the cut but the drift out in price was eyecatching 80/90 e/w on a course which will suit seems big
Chase Johnson aged 24 9th DD 5th PA 5th BA – I have a feeling the stats are misleading as he hasn’t played many rounds, in fact he has missed his last five cuts with only a 2nd in Colorado last month being noteworthy. However he plays in his home state and @ 500/1 e/w it doesn’t take a lot to find out if the stats are skewed!
august 12th 14.50
A quick recap on last week – US PGA was diabolical but the golf week was saved with a win only bet on Lee Hodges on the Korn Ferry tour. I also made a profit on the horses with a couple of nice winners so all in all a decent week. So far this week I have had a win and a place from two horse bets so being selective seems to be working and I anticipate it will still be quite quiet on that front for a few weeks.
I have had bets on five golf tournaments this week – so here’s a recap of who and why I have bet them.
Celtic Classic
Three relatively small each way bets and in other markets plus I have backed each on Betfair.
Steven Brown 100/1 – seems to be underestimated this week after his 5th place finish last week. He broke his duck on tour last year in Portugal and that came the week after finishing 11th at Le Golf National in a high quality event. There are numerous correlations between that course and this weeks so he ticks that box as well.
Romain Wattel 150/1 e/w and 14/1 top 10. Not really been seen this year and started his post lockdown campaign last week opening with a 65 before fading to finish 44th.  His best two finishes over the last couple of years are 5th and 6th at Green Eagle so he could well be a horses for courses player. If that is proved correct then he could go well this week on a course where he has been 15/8/9 in four previous visits.
Joel Sjoholm 200/1 e/w and 20/1 top ten. Like Wattel he has good form here with a brace of 8th place finishes from three visits. He clearly likes the area as he has also been 2nd and 3rd on the Challenge Tour on the Vale Hotel course just down the road
Betfair book
Brown +2390
Wattel +3380
Sjoholm +4800
Field -60
Wyndham Championship
Just the one pre tournament play on Aaron Wise 125/1 who didn’t play at Harding Park last week though that could prove to be a blessing. This weeks challenge will be much easier with low scoring needed and Wise was last seen knocking it round in 62 at the Barracuda. Last years debut of 48th doesn’t look brilliant but his second round 64 was joint second lowest of the day whilst his third round 65 was joint third lowest. If he can produce that again and add another low round he should be in the mix. He has also been 2nd before in North Carolina in the Wells Fargo event.
Boise Open
Ollie Schniederjans offered a lot when he turned pro and to be honest he hasn’t really delivered bar one victory on this tour back in 2016. He had a poor start to the year as well but seems to be much improved since the break with a 5th, 7th and 8th. That is a similar level of form to Hodges before he broke through for his win last week. Like last week I can’t bet the 40/1 e/w so have had to settle for a win only bet at an average of 35/1
Ladies Scottish Open
I do occasionally dabble with the ladies (!) though I rarely find much value I just thought there was a bit in the price of Mi Hyan Lee this week. Fitness has to be taken on trust as she was last seen six months ago finishing 6th in the Australian Open and I can’t find anything about her playing anywhere since. She was 4th here last year and actually won this event on a different course in 2017. At 100/1 (6 places) she seems a very big price if she is fit and ready to go.
Senior Players Championship
A bit of a tricky one with most of these players having played the Firestone course at some point in their career and Goosen took the spoils last year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a shorter priced winner again this year but at least we don’t have Furyk to spoil the party this week.
Paul Broadhurst didn’t fire in round one last week in his first event back shooting a 75 blaming a very poor putter. However over the next two rounds it warmed up with a 67 and 68. He didn’t play that great here last year but his overall Senior Major profile is solid with two wins and numerous placed efforts to make the 80/90 e/w seem appealing.
Dicky Pride makes his Champions Tour debut this week even though he turned 50 last year he has failed to get into events or has been injured. It’s only five years since he won on the Korn Ferry tour and warmed up by making the cut at the Barracuda with a pair of opening 69’s. Quite often we see the lesser lights shining brightly on the Champions Tour and he could be the surprise package this week at a three figure price.

august 5th 15.39
Last week was the polar opposite of the week before with both golf bets and horse bets losing though not massively thankfully and it would have been a very different story had Quigley held onto the lead on the back nine on Sunday.
This week has got off to a decent enough start with a nice 10/1 winner at Southwell and Doubly Clever has just bolted up again at Newton Abbot, I will continue to be selective over horse bets, seems to be working.
The European Tour moves on to Hanbury Manor this week and apart from one bet I am keeping my powder very dry but may well join in the fray in running. My one bet is Max Kieffer 100/1 e/w and 120 on Betfair who was a solid 6th last week and tends to hold his form well. The link that brought him to my attention could well be a rather spurious one – when the English Open was played here back in the day the three winners Clarke, Westwood and Johansson all have top form around K Club with five wins between them and it’s a similar track. The K Club was last used back in 2016 and Kieffer was 5th which was impressive as he opened with a 77 and was way back but played better than anyone else over the next three days. As I said – it really is speculative but there really is very little to go on and current form is accounted for in all other prices.
In case you hadn’t noticed it’s the US PGA Championship this week! And I seem to have taken a slightly contrary view to a lot of punters, looking at the course and the way it has been set up with the rough in my opinion wayward driving and missing the greens could be costly this week – we will soon find out. Here are the players I have backed (some of them at the weekend) plus my Betfair book before the off – few players chucked in there whose prices looked big – ie Garcia, Hatton and Gmac. Place terms have varied enormously – basically what I could get at the time.
Webb Simpson 25/28, not a lot to say about him really – already a Major winner albeit eight years ago now at the adjacent Olympic course designed by the same designers as Harding Park. Already a two time winner this year – only doubt probably some dodgy putting when in contention.
Chez Reavie 150/1 – not everyones cup of tea as a short hitter but maybe a dark horse this week. Third in last years US Open and then won for the first time in years the following week, also had a top five finish at the Tour Championship. Returned to form last week when 6th in the Fedex St Jude.
Daniel Berger 45/1 – for a player who has been top nine including a win in his last seven starts bar a missed cut at Memorial  (never plays well there) the price is simply too big
Michael Thompson – my cliff man who finally came good the other week and it all started just down the road when I backed him FRL for the US Open and lots of other markets and won a packet. If he can keep his head on I don’t see why he can’t go well again this week. Have backed him on Betfair (see below) for the win but also top five/ten and can’t leave out the FRL market at 125/1 e/w again.
Betfair win market to trade
Berger +1300
Hatton +2070
Garcia +3470
Reavie +6770
Thompson +12,220
McDowell +11,400
Field -180

july 28th 11.58
Apologies for the lack of blog etc last week was feeling rather under the weather and spent all my efforts on researching and betting, which in the end proved rather fruitful. The week before had been rather poor with some expensive racing losses and nothing on the golf until Fitzpatrick and Wallace secured some place money from in running plays late on in the Memorial. Even with those it looked like I was staring at a the first losing month of the year, but last week changed all that.
I had a couple of nice wins with Doubly Clever being the best at Newton Abbot and then on Sunday with Chocolat Noir but the pre-tournament golf picks were dire and it was left to the in running play on Michael Thompson to save the day. He duly obliged and the profit for the year climbed by £2095 to £15,935 well on target still for the £25k goal I set myself.
This week sees a full schedule on the golf and the way my picks have been going before the start I will again play it low key before the off, all my in play picks are posted on Twitter – the good the bad and the downright ugly.
In the WGC Fedex St Jude Daniel Berger appealed @ 35/1 on Betfair, twice a winner at Southwind when a normal PGA tour event he has been in scintillating form this year. It came to an end at Memorial with a missed cut but he has never played well at Muirfield Village so I am not deterred.
The European Tour moves its “bubble” to the Forest of Arden which hasn’t been used for quite a few years now. Jason Scrivener appealed at the price, he has been going off at similar prices in higher quality fields and tree lined venues seem to bring out the best in him 66/1 e/w and 85 Betfair.
Graeme Storm missed nearly two years with a wrist injury and to be honest may have been happy with the extra break as he wasn’t playing well on his return before it. However last week he finished t10th at Close House and around the 200/250 e/w mark represents a bit of value to keep that run going.
The Champions Tour returns this week with lots of players who have turned 50 in the past four months taking their turn and it’s difficult to know how they will play, some take to it right away, others don’t. I am going to stick with a player who has already won on tour this year and that significantly came after a long break – Brett Quigley. The Warwick Hills course was used for many years on the PGA tour so even the newer roundbellys will have course experience. Whilst Quigley never had a really high finish he was 1st, tied 1st and 2nd at the cut mark and said back in the day that the course really suited his game. I have backed him 45/1 e/w and also at the same price on Betfair to hopefully trade.
I haven’t had chance to look at the Korn Ferry tour this week but have been through the PGA Barracuda field. The format remains the same with the Stableford scoring system but the course has changed to a different Nicklaus design just over the border in California but at an even higher altitude. You need to be looking for a player who can make plenty of birdies and the odd eagle with this scoring system and one player catches my eye before the off – veteran Josh Teater. He ranks top 10 in the field for both holes played per eagle and number of birdies per round. He plays well in this format with finishes of 7th, 10th and 13th in the event in the past. There have been two “opposite” events this season on tour – Puerto Rico and Bermuda – he has finished 2nd and 11th perhaps showing he thrives when the bigger guns are away. One final little factor is that his one Korn Ferry tour win came at altitude in Utah. At 125/1 (150 Betfair) he ticks an awful lot of boxes and could give us a decent run for our money.
Any further tips will be sent via Twitter – good luck this week

july 14th 14.36
Last week wasn’t a bad week with limited golf bets and Darius van Driel managed a tie for 4th @ 100/1 and I traded some of my Betfair position @ 5/1. With Romanor winning @ 50/1 and a few other places on the horses I put a substantial bet into last weeks loss.
This week has kicked off well on the horses in France with a 33/1 place and a nice 12/1 winner at Auteuil and I still have another two to run at Dieppe this afternoon.

Onto this weeks golf and again I am playing it fairly low key before the start, my only bet on the PGA tour is Kevin Streelman who I have taken 75/1 ew 7 places and also 95 for £50 on Betfair. He is in good form having finished 2nd in the Travelers and then 7th last week here at Muirfield Village. Last week he was 2nd for DA and 3rd for GIR and I think the tougher set up this week could play even more to his strengths. He was 4th here last year and been 7th and 8th before so rates a decent each way bet with extra places on offer.
The European/Challenge Tour remains in Austria this week moving onto the incredibly scenic Adamstal course. My only selection here is Bernd Ritthammer who was 8th on his only start on the course in 2018. He finished 18th last week (a big improvement on past course form) having opened with a 74 when he may have been a bit rusty he shot a seven under bogey free 65 on day two. Another 74 followed on Saturday in the rain before closing with a decent 69 on Sunday. If he can build on that start then this three time Challenge tour winner could add another title in what is basically a Challenge tour event.
That event kicks off tomorrow as does the Korn Ferry tour which moves to the adjacent Oaks course in San Antonio, a venue which has been well used on the PGA tour. I am going to put up Texan Martin Piller to gain a 7th Korn Ferry title in his home state at a time of year he plays his best golf. Apart from his first title the other five have all come in different events played from mid July to mid August. He is in decent form having made all his cuts since the restart with a best of 5th in Utah. He has four PGA tour top six finishes to his name and two of them have come in Texas including this course when 4th on the PGA tour in 2016. I have backed him @ 60/1 e/w with six places though he is 66/1 with Skybet who go one less.
People maybe wondering where I have been getting some of the prices I quote, well for the first time in a long time I opened a new betting account – this time with Stars. So far I have been pleased with the service they offer, their golf each way places are really good and they have accommodated me with all the stakes I have asked for. So here’s a plug! – everything I do on Twitter and on the blog I do for free, I have minimal advertising revenue and really most of the writing I do is to showcase my “talent” to get writing gigs. I am happy to promote Starsports and have entered an affiliate deal with them so to help me keep my work free to air, if you don’t already have an account with them then follow this link to give them a try matched bet up to £50*.
Sign up to Star Sports and get a free matched bet up to £50.
New customers only. Min stake £10. Min odds even/2.0. Free bet up to value of initial stake (win part only) credited if selected event/result occurs. Max free bet £50. Free bet valid for 7 days. Full terms apply. 18+.

july 8th 18.53
I must admit on Monday I thought my luck was never going to change with Bandsman getting collared on the line having traded @ 1.02, I did lay my stake back at odds on – I always try to do that when I have had a decent bet on. Then today finally a winner @ 50/1 although most of my bets were without the favourites – I’ll take it. That’s the second 50/1 winner I have put up this year – just need the golfers to follow suit now!
As I alluded to before the start I have limited plays in this weeks three events so expect me to tweet a few bets over the next few days.
The European Tour kicks off in Austria and the only player I have backed is Darius Van Driel, he has won in each of the last two Summers on the Challenge Tour in Austria and Switzerland. It’s his first sighting of the Diamond course but Frittelli managed to win the Rolex Trophy and then this event the following year so we have a bit of history. I have backed him 100/1 e/w and a bit on Betfair @ 120.
The Korn Ferry tour moves to Texas and a new venue (though it has been used on the Champions Tour) – I would be wary of backing favourite Ventura as he only shot level par in the PGA Monday qualifier and could be a bit jaded by the time he got to Texas. Thanks to Ryan @ MondayQ I am reliably informed Nelson Ledesma didn’t travel to Ohio from Detroit having missed the cut to play the qualifier but headed straight to Texas. I have talked about bio-rhythms before and it’s interesting that Nelson Ledesma has hoisted a trophy on this tour on the last two second Sundays in July at different events. Can he make it three? Well I will splash a bit of cash @ 125/1 to see if he can.
The PGA tour moves onto Muirfield Village and I am wary of course form as it will play a little different to The Memorial with lower rough, different tees and slower greens. I was happy to get Mackenzie Hughes on board @ 200/1 e/w, before the shutdown he was 2nd at the Honda Classic (another Nicklaus design) and was 3rd at the Travelers in his last event. He went to college in Ohio and I just think the books aren’t giving him enough credit.
Ryan Armour returns home to Ohio in great form that has seen him go 6th and 4th in his last two events – I couldn’t resist taking 180 win and 25/1 top 5 on Betfair.
My Betfair book is a little light compared to last week but that’s due to the uncertainty about the course
Ryan Armour +8900
Mackenzie Hughes +2500
Cameron Champ +2025
Michael Thompson  +5350
Field -100
Talking of Thompson – I have backed him small e/w FRL 110/1 – been getting off to fast starts and has done the same here in the past.
Be lucky and see you in the Twittersphere

july 6th 12.32
I shouted at my computer last night for the first time in a long time last night – here’s why.
The week got off to a bad start backing a horse in Ireland at Kilbeggan – Grey Girly – the horse was pulling hard and after about half a mile when all the others went round the bend mine carried on, apparently the saddle had slipped – one for the notebook.
On Thursday one thing went right as I managed to clear my Betfair stake for the week with a lay of Potter @ 80 for £300 – helps when you have £100 @ 1000, sadly he couldn’t keep his front nine form going and that was the last action of the week on my Betfair book. One of my picks for the week Stallings got off to a great start and was tied for the first round lead – did I back him in that market – no.
On Friday I had forgotten all about Heuber on the Korn Ferry tour – he shot up the leaderboard from 57th to t5th – maybe things were about to change, and in play bet Wolfe was up there too.
Saturday afternoon came and in France my 40/1 e/w shot just got up for 3rd-  maybe my luck was indeed changing. A little while later the second horse of the day was going well til it veered left and jumped the hurdle instead of the fence – it soon became apparent the bridle had snapped – to have the tack go wrong twice in one week was a bit hard to swallow.
Still – the evening brought the final round of the golf in Colorado - Heuber powered down the leaderboard  as quickly as he had risen up it the day before with a disastrous triple bogey at the second hole. Wolfe had  three holes left and was one behind but managed to bogey the easy 140 yard par 3 and the next and that was that.
Then yesterday came - Merritt doubled the first from just 70 yards out in the fairway and in the end finished one shot outside the tie for 4th. I had backed Ventura in various markets – he finished just outside the European places but my main bet was for top 20 – yup he finished 21st.
So – shouting done we move onto a new week, golf looks tricky with the European Tour returning in Austria, the PGA playing the first of two weeks @ Muirfield Village with a very different set up for week one and the Korn Ferry tour moving onto Texas and a new course.
There’s plenty of jumps racing in the UK and Ireland this week and I will be cheering on Bandsman in the 3.30 @ Uttoxeter this afternoon – and hoping nothing goes wrong with his tack.

june 30th 11.40
Well last week certainly turned out better than the previous two week with a profit secured thanks to trading Todd and backing Na in running and a decent winning bet on a French chaser. It really isn’t an exact science trading on Betfair but this time I got it right – backing Todd at 45/1 and laying off at 2/1 proved to be incredibly shrewd (or just plain lucky!)
Last Sunday of the month is where I tot up for the month and with two winning weeks and two losing weeks, including a very bad one, it was always going to be an uphill struggle and in the end I made the princely sum of £250 on the month. Not a great total for all the hours of graft but it is minimising the losses in such months that leads to long term overall profit, so that leaves me at £13,850 for the year.

Onto this week – I did my research on Saturday for the Rocket Mortgage Classic – with only one years form to go on I wanted to see if there was a link with who played well last year and where they had played before. I discovered there may be a tie in with the Old White course in Virginia – when you look at who finished top ten here last year there could be something in it
Nate Lashley – two other PGA top 5’s – one being O/W
Niemenn – a Win and 5th O/W
Potter – a Win and 6th O/W
Snedeker – 3rd O/W
Stuard – 6th O/W
Tringale – twice 4th O/W
The only link I could say that exists between the two courses is that they are both old fashioned courses. So with that in mind I have just backed three golfers who have all won at Old White.
Kevin Na didn’t play last year but has turned into a regular winner and thankfully grabbed solo 5th last week with a 23 foot birdie putt at the last.
Scott Stallings opened with a 66 last year when bang out of form and faded – he too holed a long putt at the last on Sunday to secure his highest finish of the year 6th.
Ted Potter finished 5th here last year, he is very hit and miss (mainly miss) but does have a 6th and 7th this year.
I have backed all three e/w 45/1, 100/1 and 400/1 with varying places but also on Betfair where I hope I can trade
Na - +3100
Stallings - +3100
Potter - +96,800 (nabbed the 1000 on Sunday night)
Field -200
I will add any others in running and will also be doing the final round preview on Sportinglife on Sunday morning.

On the Korn Ferry tour we also have an event in Colorado with only one years form to go by and I have just backed one player before the off – Justin Heuber – 175/200 e/w with 6 places. They are playing at 5,000 feet this week and was looking for players who have performed well at altitude. Heuber had two wins on the Latino tour in 2015/16 – at 5,000 and 10,000 feet so seems to be able to adapt his game. He missed most of last year and started this year poorly but there were hints last week he had found his game. He finished 13th – a vastly improved performance even though he dropped a few shots close home when the wind got up in Utah.

That’s it before the start, will tweet in running plays, now I am off to study ten races @ Southwell and Tipperary tomorrow, we also have Auteuil on Saturday. It’s also time I tidied the house before my teenage daughter arrives for a visit for the first time in 14 weeks!
june 24th 14.18
I meant to put this up first today but forgot – if you are following the French horses I put up on Twitter – these are the results so far with just the chasers
38 selections
12 winners 4,8,9/2,11/2,10.17/2,9,6,10,11/4,6,11
8 places 5,33,12,6,4,10,12,12
18 losers
Pretty happy with that and will continue to graft away

Onto the Travelers Championship – the one bet I had on Monday was Joaquin Niemenn and glad I took the early price of 60/1 e/w and 60’s on Betfair. I probably don’t really need to expand on why – in form with a good finish on his debut last year and was such an obvious pick and his price has duly collapsed.
I will stick with my “cliff” golfer Michael Thompson – I read an interesting quote from him from last Thursday

“My ball striking has been coming along for really the last kind of six months. I've been working with Justin Parsons down in Sea Island. He's kind of getting me rediscovering kind of my old feels from college and my first few years out on TOUR. So I feel really comfortable standing over the ball, and I know what I'm doing with my swing.
That paired with now kind of finding my putting stroke is making a world of difference. It's making golf fun again. You know, I love what Jordan Spieth said last week, that he plays best when he's playing more like a kid than he is trying to be perfect. That's kind of what I'm trying to do.”

It certainly has been playing dividends – in his last five rounds (90 holes) he has made 25 birdies and just 4 bogeys so can he turn it around on a course where has missed the cut on the last six occasions?  Well I refer you back to the quote above, in 2008 when playing as an invited top amateur he was 5th after round one and made the cut. On his next visit as a pro three years later he shot a final round 62 to take 4th place. He clearly has fond memories from early on in his career. I have backed him in a whole host of markets – 250/1 e/w top 5 and 7, top American 150/1 e/w, top 10 22/1 and First Round Leader 150/1 e/w + you can see Betfair position below.

This morning I added a small win/place bet on Betfair on Joseph Bramlett who has just gone 2nd and 3rd since the restart on the Korn Ferry tour, I don’t like the bookmaker price much but 650/40 was a bit generous.
So my “trading” position on Betfair before the start is
Niemenn +2175
Thompson +20,250
Bramlett +10,000
Field -110
june 24th 10.47
The less said about last week the better, lets just say Poston – backed e/w 7 places – 8th, backed e/w without the faves 5 places – 6th, Wolfe backed e/w 5 places – 6th, and Michael Thompson was bang there until the end trading just about into single figures. At least I had a nice big winner in France on the horses on Sunday to cheer me up.
I will do two posts today – so as it’s not a mammoth read will kick off with the Utah Championship where before the off I have had just one decent bet on Patrick Fishburn 110/125 6 places. Here’s what I wrote two years ago when I put him up @ 500/1 for this event
“Utah native Fishburn only turned pro two months ago – he Monday qualified on the Canadian Tour and did well enough to secure another four starts
I listened to a long radio interview with him where the solid amateur (reached a high of 44th in the world) said the Canadian courses didn’t really suit his game but that Oakridge did as he would be able to use his driver more
He has plenty of experience of the course which is close to his home and was playing it just a few weeks ago in preparation having been given a sponsors invite
He has certainly played well at home in the amateur ranks – in 2016 he won the Utah State Amateur and last year won the Utah State Open by an incredible 17 shots
If he can transfer that form onto the tour this week he could give us a really good run for our money at really big odds”
For a 500/1 shot he didn’t play badly finishing 24th and last year played on the Canadian Tour grabbing the 5th Korn Ferry card by finishing 5th on the money list. That came courtesy of a 2nd, 3rd and 6th and finally the win the Tour Championship.
He has played in five events on tour this season with a best place of 4th in Bogota which maybe shouldn’t come as a shock given he grew up at altitude here in Utah. I am not put off by the two missed cuts in Florida given that he confesses he cannot putt on Bermuda greens. He came home early due to the missed cut and on Saturday went out and shot a course record 59 (with a bogey) on his home course 15 minutes drive away from Oakridge. Apparently the two courses are very similar and he will have to go low this week – lets hope the momentum continues.

june 17th 11.33
When I set out in January to do a betting diary I stated that it would be written if I had the time and the inclination, well after a pretty disastrous last seven days I have neither! I set out last week to take it easy on the golf but that still went wrong and the horses weren’t much cop either ending in the first four figure weekly loss of the year. Monday didn’t get off to a good start in France either so have spent much of my time going back over things and weeding out the crap. Even after 20 years of doing this I still do things wrong – the key is not repeating those mistakes. So onto this week – I will put below my thoughts on this weeks golf events.

RBC Heritage
I had to be quick to get on JT Poston – a combination of 6th here last year on his debut and an eye catching 10th last week meant his price was never going to last as everyone jumped on the bandwagon so was happy to get on @ 100/1 e/w 7 places. I put him up last week for FRL and have done him again in that market this week @ 80/1 ew.
My selection that I don’t believe anyone else has put up is Viktor Hovland 66/1 ew with 7&8 places plus 100 on Betfair. He really is a hugely talented youngster and Harbour Town maybe a course he can play well for the following reasons. His PGA tour stats don’t really seem to reveal the truth but he hits a lot of greens in regulation, something required on the small greens at Harbour Town. To me that’s the key with this play – small greens – where has he excelled – Pebble Beach, he won the US Amateur there and was 12th at the US Open. The link is there with Snedeker having won both the AT&T and here, McDowell did the US Open @ Pebble Beach and Harbour Town double, and Davis Love is a five time winner here and two time winner @ Pebble. His win earlier in the year came on the coastal course in Puerto Rico and whilst this is a vastly superior field he knows he can win. Cue egg on face in a few days time.
As well as Poston FRL I have had small e/w bet on Vaughn Taylor in the same market, whilst he hasn’t played well here for a number of years he has led and co-led before so was worthy of a few pounds @ 150/1 (oh and where did he last win – Pebble Beach!)
Betfair book as follows – couldn’t resist a few quid on Hughes @ 700
Poston +2400
Hovland +5000
Hughes +10500
Field -90

Korn Ferry – The King and Bear
A new course to all so time to tread carefully – the one I really wanted to be on but can’t get the 50/1 now 40/1 is Kristoffer Ventura. Dropped back to this tour last week he finished 4th – so that makes 13 starts at this level with two wins and three other places – pretty impressive! I will make do with the £50 @ 45/1 I got on Betfair and see about playing him in running if he takes to the course.
The other player I really like and was chuffed to get 100/1 is Chandler Blanchet who Monday qualified by getting the last spot by holing a 7 footer for par in the playoff. The last time he Monday qualified was also in Florida in February and he went on to finish 4th in the main event. This Florida born and raised pro has some game and in his young career last year won on the Swingthought tour, won the Waterloo Open in Florida shooting 29 under and winning by 8 over 54 holes and won on the Latino tour. He was a decent amateur and in 2017 he won 6/7 events (2nd in the other) and in 2018 won 4/5 – that’s an incredibly consistent level of form. I expect him to go well in his home state this week.
Right – I’m off to study the Compiegne card for tomorrow – some lessons learnt in the last week and will stick to chasers, oh and I am doing the 54 hole update on Sportinglife this week.

june 10th 11.48
Monday 8th

In an attempt to get back to some sort of normality I have decided to restart the betting diary as I actually have something to talk about with racing and “proper” golf events beginning in earnest. First job of the day was to analyse the French National Hunt tips I have been putting up on Twitter – in the first four weeks since they came back the results are as follows
9 winners - 4/1,8/1,11/2,10/1,10/1,9/1,9/2,5/1,14/1
7 places - 5/1,33/1,7/1,12/1,12/1,12/1,12/1
14 losers
To be honest as I have never looked at this before I am pretty pleased with the results. Maybe it will be a whole new avenue for me as I have always looked upon racing as more of a hobby than a proper source of bets. Combined with what I said a couple of months back after some success in Ireland it really is something I am going to put a lot more effort into.
I mentioned last week I had bet on Scheffler for the Colonial (I’m old school!) and the only other player I have backed is Mackenzie Hughes. Last seen finishing 2nd at PGA National he has taken the philosophical stance on the enforced break – he could have been upset at losing momentum instead he looked back and thought at least with that high finish I have job security, it’s mental thought processes like that which are key to performance.
He has been progressive here in each of three starts c/42/8 and it’s interesting that his one PGA tour win came at Sea Island – Kisner and Kirk both won there before taking this title. I have backed him 250/1 ew 5 places, 200/1 7 & 8 places, 40/1 top ROW and a bit on Betfair.
The rest of the day was taken up researching Korn Ferry tour and racing @ Nantes for Tuesday. Must admit with the golf I am going to play it fairly low key to start with and maybe do some in running playing.

Tuesday 9th
Up early to try and catch the early prices on the horse I fancied at Nantes, on the smaller meetings it can be a mad scramble to get the price you want and there is little point attacking the few overnight prices there are (unless it’s a really big race). I managed to secure 8/1 which I was happy with but the horse tired to finish 4th in the end going off a much shorter price and incredibly trading around 1.1 on the Exchange – I’m not sure what race they were watching!. I went back through the 3.10 as the favourite seemed very short but wish I hadn’t bothered as the rag I picked out pulled up, again.
The Korn Ferry tour event at Sawgrass is a wide open affair and the books go 25/1 the field and I have picked out one player before the off – local guy Jared Wolfe. He has the advantage of sleeping in his own bed this week rather than the “quarantine” hotel which should be in his favour. He warmed up by playing in a 36 hole event around the Stadium course here at Sawgrass shooting 69/66 and finishing 5th and beating the likes of Billy Horschell. He won earlier in the year on this tour adding to his three Latino tour wins the last of which came after a four month break from “competition” golf. Quite happy to take 66/70/80 ew with 6 & 7 places.
I always read other peoples’ write ups on golf events – more to check that someone hasn’t put a player up I fancy and the price will disappear but tonight the article Matt Cooper wrote about Colonial caught my eye especially what he had to say about Bezuidenhout – the link is on my Twitter feed and I added him 100/1 e/w 7 places and 180 on Betfair – my Betfair book looks like this now – these are normally used to trade (hopefully!)
Scheffler +1925
Bez +4475
Hughes +2925
Field -70
Only two other bets I have struck are First Round Leader – English 80/1 and Poston 110/1 6 places each. The former has been 2nd twice in six appearances here after the opening salvo whilst Poston in 87 PGA starts has led once, co-led twice (including here) and picked up place money a further seven times – so maybe a touch of value in the price.

Wednesday 10th
This morning has obviously been taken up by writing this little piece and apart from that it’s going to be a quiet day apart from going through the two races at Craon tomorrow night as it looks like prices will be available though probably not very early. There are also some races on Friday and a cracking card @ Compiegne on Saturday so will enjoy the peace and quiet today brings, who knows I may even do some housework!

june 5th 10.56
Thought it was about time I put pen to paper (so to speak) as the PGA and Korn Ferry Tours return to action next week. I think it maybe best to tread with extreme caution to begin with @ Colonial as we really do not know what state these players’ games will be in. I have put up Scheffler at 45/1 e/w – at least we know he shook off some rust at the Maridoe events finishing 1st and 2nd, and I will probably add one big outsider once all the side markets are out next week. The Korn Ferry Tour could potentially be more interesting as a lot of the players have been taking part in mini tour events, though piecing together bits of form will be a minefield.
I have enjoyed betting on the small tours – to begin with it was profitable just by keeping an eye on late entries and withdrawals but as books got used to the names on the tours it became increasingly difficult to pinpoint any value, still it kept the gey cells ticking over.
I wrote at the beginning of April that profit for first three months was £9200 and I expected it to remain so but mainly thanks to French National Hunt racing in May my running total for 2020 has now risen to £13,600.
I have never looked at the French counterpart of our UK/Irish scene but it would appear that I quite like it! For some reason I find it easier to read the form, the information out there and race replays is extremely good and I have sensibly just looked at races where the form is there for all to see.
Anyway – back to the grindstone – got seven races to weigh up tomorrow and a cracking ten race card at Compiegne on Sunday, as always – tips on Twitter.

May 10th 11.51
Tuesday sees the start of the 5th annual Scottsdale AZ Open and the first full field event for what feels like an age. The event has attracted a slightly better field than recent weeks fare on the Outlaw and Golden State tours. If past winning scores are anything to go by around the ten under mark will get the job done which suggests to me that the course will be tougher than what we have seen in recent weeks and therefore the cream will invariably rise to the top. I have therefore concentrated on the higher class players and those with recent winning form, if you haven’t managed to get the job done in weaker fields then you are unlikely to this week.
The first player I put up on Twitter was Nate Lashley who simply seemed too big around the 25/1 mark and has been well backed so far. Trying to fathom out the price the only conclusion I could come to was a lack of recent action and he played poorly in the three starts he made after finishing 3rd in the Phoenix Open in February. He secured his first PGA tour win last year which added to a Korn Ferry win in 2017 and three on the Latino Tour in 2016. That final tour is probably about the level of this weeks contest, oh and you can throw in a 2nd in this event in 2016.
Kevin Lucas is a bit hit and miss but over the last year but does have 3rd, 6th and 8th place finishes on the Korn Ferry tour. He hasn’t played this event before but warmed up nicely a few weeks ago improving his score every round 69/65/63 to finish 5th. The opening price of 66/70 just seemed too big and has proved to be so.
Matt Picanso is the form man on the Golden State Tour winning his last three straight with a combined total of 54 under par for 9 rounds – that’s an average of six under per round! The interesting thing is that those wins have been spread out over four months so he is hardly “golfed out”. The price tag of 14/1 just seems on the big side for a man in such form and I am surprised to see the Unibet 20/1 price holding firm.
I have backed three other players that I haven’t put up on Twitter and they all fall into the category of having potential and more ability than most on show.
Taylor Montgomery is an exceptionally good putter who has won a few events at this sort of level and has been 7th and 3rd here in the last two years. Last seen out in February he was 3rd on the Korn Ferry tour, a repeat of that sort of form this week should see him go close on a course he has performed well on before and 33/1 is a very fair price.
Brett Grant was having a decent enough start to his Korn Ferry career with four out of five cuts made. No course form but like Lucas he improved with every round 66/65/63 to claim 3rd  spot a few weeks back, a repeat would see him hit the frame @ 35/1.
Patrick Flavin has a low grade Korn Ferry card and hasn’t made a start yet but has kept himself busy in Arizona where he resides. He Monday qualified for his first PGA tour start in the Phoenix Open and played in an Outlaw golf event where he shot rounds of 62 and 60 after an opening 70 to claim 4th spot. Last year he played on the Latino tour gaining a win 2nd and 3rd. At odds of 60/66 he could prove to be a touch of each way value.
If anyone wants to publish this article then feel free to get in touch

april 19th 12.33
Cactus Tour

We have three short priced favourites and it is easy to see why and I can easily whittle the field down to the top 8 in the betting in which 2 interest me at an e/w price.
Karah Sanford 12/1 won this in 2018 with a score of 15 under when only 8 of the 29 broke par. She was only 16 at the time and as far as I can make out hasn’t played this tour since – playing mainly on the Symetra Tour and the WAPT – last year she was 2nd on that Money List having only played 4 events going 2/2/6/1. She is still only 18 but she may offer a touch of value, weirdly enough her LPGA debut was @ Las Colinas in Texas (the better known course) – maybe she likes the course name!
Emily Penttilae is a slightly more “seasoned” professional and having been 3rd last time out she returns to an event where she was 3rd last year, it’s easy to make a case for her @ 25/1 e/w

Outlaw Tour
On known form Dylan Wu should really walk away with this – 2nd, 4th and 7th so far on the Korn Ferry Tour this year is miles above the rest of these but with a 36 hole schedule it’s never that easy – players have to put their foot to the metal and not ease off.
There is apparently no known course form and this is a bit like the Mark Leishman question “do you know what you don’t know?” – my take is more  “do I know that they don’t know?” – odds compliers that is!
What I am referring to is that in November the course was used on the Outlaw Tour for a 36 hole 2 man event, that was a Turkey shoot this is more of a crapshoot, but each players scores counted so it is possible to work out individual scores.
The man with the lowest 36 hole score over those days was Ryan Williams (65-63) – he is out of form in his few starts on this tour recently but a few years back won the Canadian Tour Championship on the back of three missed cuts 70/1 e/w
Kyle Slattery interests me at 40/1 e/w – he was t2nd (65-65) and over the last few weeks shot 66-67 in the last 2 rounds at Orange Tree then opened 62-67 last week. In each of those two weeks one awful round let him down – maybe just 36 holes will suit him better?
Yannick Paul was t4th in November (66-65) and is at least consistent, 11 of 12 cuts made on the Mackenzie Tour last year and 8/9/4 in his last 3 on this tour – 14/1 e/w 6 places available with Betfair/Paddy is more than fair

april 6th 11.44
It all feels a bit surreal that a month ago today I was deep in study for the Cheltenham Festival which turned out to be (bar a few more meetings) one big last hurrah in my betting world. Betting on horse racing during March was a big saver for me as any golf bets provided a small loss but the overall profit for the month was £2450, a good Cheltenham and a 50/1 winner in Ireland. That takes my overall profit for the year to £9200 and I have a feeling it will stay around that figure for some time to come.
The Virtual Grand National was a welcome respite for a few hours on Saturday, for over 25 years now myself and a group of friends have got together that weekend, this year we did it via Zoom – not quite the same but good fun nonetheless. I actually won a few quid but donated it all back to local charities who are struggling to raise money at this time, in the spirit of things it seemed the right thing to do.
I am rather stunned they are still playing golf in Arizona on the Outlaw and Cactus Tours, perhaps even more amazed that bookmakers are offering prices. The standard is pretty poor in general and the “cream” rises to the top so for me it’s hardly worth bothering with.
I didn’t think at any point I could cover a few weeks in a couple of short parargraphs but that’s how it will be probably for a few months, look after yourselves and stay indoors and safe.

march 20th 10.44
Apologies for no betting diary there really has been little point but thought I would do a little run down of the last ten days – all that happened with what turned out to be a profitable Cheltnham which was a godsend with little prospect of money being earnt in the coming months.
Day one got off to a shaky start with Captain Guinness travelling well when brought down in the opener but Put the Kettle On put all worries to bed in the next. I had backed it at 16/1 and was astounded that it drifted to 33/1 on Betfair before the off so had a nice top up – basically it meant no matter what happened the week would end in profit. The potential big payout of the day was the antepost bet on Springfield Fox in the NH Chase having got on at 100/1, I don’t think it really liked being challenged for the lead as it hadn’t seen another horse in its last two runs and its jumping fell apart – not helped by having a fairly poor amateur on board. The top amateur riders like Codd really are worth a huge amount in the races.
Day two saw places from Easywork 20/1 and Third Time Lucki 20/1 in the Bumper – getting those extra places really is a bonus as the latter only just got 4th when the standard place terms were three. The day all revolved around Out Sam in the Cross Country, was just hoping for a place really and was avidly watching the screen to see which horse would appear in third! I had been backing it for a while so that meant another nice profitable day.
Day three – I really should have just stuck to my antepost bets on Sire du Berlais and Ronald Pump, a winner and a place but all other bets failed to trouble the judge.
Day four got off to a cracking if somewhat fortunate start with Burning Victory taking advantage of the unlucky fall of Goshen (there’s always one each year!) and after that not a lot happened. Column of Fire looked like winning the last when coming down but I guess that’s what you call Karma after the first race.
The first round of the Players Championship was more or less completed but I awoke on Friday to the news that the rest would be cancelled. That just about sums up the golf for the foreseeable future, I would be surprised if we saw any in the next three to four months. I am amazed there has been some mini tour action and even more amazed that books have been pricing up but I won’t bet in one round shoot outs or on tours where little is known. I imagine they won’t carry on for much longer but will keep one eye open just in case something crops up.
The Midlands National took place at the weekend but most of my bets on Sheneededtherun were scuppered as she only managed 4th – see those extra places are invaluable.
With no UK racing either I turned my attention to what may remain from Ireland and that went well when putting up a 50/1 winner on Tuesday. They have decided to carry on in Ireland behind closed doors and there is some decent racing at the weekend from Thurles and Downpatrick. After the success over the last few weeks on the racing I have vowed to spend more time on it in the future, if I can make it continue to turn a profit then I would be daft not to.
I will post any tips on Twitter over the next couple days and hopefully bring some much needed cheer and money! Stay safe and keep your distance.

march 10th 11.49

It would appear that I have somehow deleted all my notes and don’t have time to re-write them so a 3 day summary off my Twitter feed!
Added Matthew Jordan – Qatar as drifted to 120 Betfair
Schwartzel can’t play Bay Hill
Added Poke 100/1 e/w
API – small bet McDowell 65 win only
Sportinglife piece – added the aforementioned Poke, Senior and Fichardt as small e/w plays
Leinster National – Red Jack – good price if it can jump (it couldn’t)
API – added Frittelli – playing well in tough conditions, lay of Leishman 3/1 – long way to go
Tanigawa on the Champions Tour somehow up to 4th

Sunday 8th
I have a feeling it’s going to be a very long day with chances in all events bar Malaysia which was reduced to 54 holes and with Rahman bombing out in round one he left himself too much to do.
In Qatar I had Pope and Senior running for me but any chance of a return soon went AWOL with Pope having a nightmare start and Senior crashing out before the turn. I had to feel sorry for Drysdale not getting the win, he did nothing wrong in the playoff and Campillo just kept holing long putts.
The API was set up for an intriguing finish and I had Leishman in the mix most of the day. With the week looking like a poor one I gave some back at 7/4 to minimise the damage but still leaving him as a nice winner. He couldn’t quite reel in Hatton – nice to see “foreigners” dominating on the PGA tour Mr Azinger!
Last chance saloon was Tanigawa – instead of his usual one good round he had two this week but the third round was abysmal, but he is one to keep an eye on.
So I ended the week on a small loss (always better than a big one) – glad there is only one event next week as I always love Cheltenham even if my bank balance doesn’t.

Monday 9th
Early to rise and try and get all my bets done for the Players Championship before lunchtime and thankfully bookmakers playing ball with prices up early.
I kicked off with three bets on my three main fancies on Betfair – Dahmen 200, Garcia 140 and Berger 110 – surprised at all three prices.
Dahmen made his debut here last year and finished 12th – he clearly took to the course as that came on the back of four consecutive missed cuts, this year he arrives on the back of a pair of 5th placed finishes. Having read past interviews it is clear he admits to being a streaky player and I really like him to continue his current streak. I have backed him in all manner of markets apart from the 200 win, 125/1 e/w with 6 and 10 places, w/o the favourites, top US, top 5 etc etc
Garcia always plays well around Sawgrass – he has made the last 16 cuts, has a win, two x 2nd, a 3rd  and a 4th to his name. He is a consistent player of late, picking and choosing where he plays and may well be better off having not played the last two events in tricky conditions. The 140 was big but happy to back him @ 80/1 e/w with 6 and 7 places on offer.
Daniel Berger arrives here in very consistent form improving in every start since his winter break – 38/29/9/5/4. He doesn’t have an exceptional record around Sawgrass but was 9th here in 2016 when in decent form. Like Garcia I backed him 80/1 e/w with the 6/7 places.

Tuesday 10th
Was good to get all the golf bets done and dusted and left the way clear for Cheltenham. I am a National Hunt lover and besides a few decent antepost bets I treat it like a day at the races backing in every race but only to small stakes and generally having a bit of fun – so here is my lot for day one – before I adjourn to the pub!
1.30 Captain Guinness 16/1 e/w 5/7 places
2.10 Put the Kettle On 16/1 e/w
2.50 Quarenta 33/1 e/w
3.30 Cornerstone Lad 33/1 e/w – don’t get that price at all
4.10 No bet, no point!
4.50 Espoir du Guye 9/1 e/w
5.30 Springfield Fox – backed antepost 100/1 e/w – you may hear a loud Twitter Boom if he goes in!

march 4th 17.35
Thursday 27th

A day spent mainly following leaderboards and adding to pre tournament bets
In Oman Louis De Jager 80 e/w because of his good Mauritius form Zanotti 50 e/w due to his excellent course form
In the Honda I nibbled at Swafford whose price drifted on the off NeSmith was got quickly onside just after his hole in one at 80/1 – he had good junior form around here.
Before tee off in Mexico – small bet Mito to hopefully trade @ 38 and also managed £5 Barjon 370 which seemed too high compared to book prices

Friday 28th
A quiet day with not a lot happening – I added Jamieson 150/1 by the end of the day he hadn’t even made the cut dropping shots like confetti after a quick start.
I had to do the half way cut Sportinglife piece (much easier at 4pm rather than 8 am!)  Luiten, Wang and Zanotti were tipped having small bets on the first two as I was already on Zanotti.
Over in Mexico Mito had an excellent second round to lie 2nd heading into weekend – things were looking fairly positive

Saturday 29th
I backed McEvoy before he teed off – 70 on Betfair seemed huge compared to his book price – clearly the person knew he was in for a poor day
Another piece for Sportinglife but Oman still looks wide open so didn’t add any more plays.
Honda was playing tough and Swafford had one bad hole and shot down the leaderboard but as it was tough I started to add players who were in or near the clubhouse Hughes 200 , Palmer 125, An 100, Shelton 100 – it did feel like I was throwing a lot of shit hoping some would stick – time will tell.
Mito takes a 2 shot lead into final round – laid some back at 6/4 to guarantee a winning event and I now had the backup of Barjon lying 3rd.
Over on the Champions Tour Dimarco had a good second day even giving him an outside chance of a place

Sunday 1st
I sat here kicking myself over Sordet in Oman as I kept on thinking about backing himsince Monday– thankfully he faded and in the end I had an absolute shocker in both Oman and the Champions Tour.
In the Honda Classic –I  got lucky with Hughes 200/1 ew finishing 2nd – I know some got on @ 350/1 at the time of tweeting, and he traded down to about 3/1 – so nearly a decent win.
That clawed some back so was down to Korn Ferry tour whether or not I would have a winning week. It was a nightmare to follow with no real coverage and a very slow leaderboard. I was trying to lay some Barjon back @ 3/1 and some got taken but decided to take the rest down as I simply though someone would “nick” the money having a faster feed. In the end he had 40 feet for eagle at the last, needing a birdie to win, he three putted for par and lost in the playoff. Mito had a 15 footer for birdie to get in that playoff and also missed.
I have said it before – it really is fine lines, three players all traded low and any of them could have won but none of them did. In the end a very small profit on the week, but at least not a big loss – those are the weeks that hurt more than the hard luck stories.

Monday 2nd
Hadn’t looked at any golf and was initially shocked to find Qatar had changed courses, with that needed a new approach so I looked at current form, form on other Olazabal courses and previous form in country. I came up with Canizares who has just gone 15th, 6th, has a 2nd and 3rd at Seville and 2nd at Pula (other Olazabal designs) and has also been 5th and 8th at Doha before. 100/1 e/w was the price though I did take slightly lower on Betfair for the win as well.
An event where betting those who take to the course in running probably a better strategy this week.

Tuesday 3rd
Time to get stuck into the Arnold Palmer Invitational @ Bay Hill – where I was surprised to see the Charl Schwartzel price. He was 5th at Pebble Beach last month in his first visit and was going well last week, tying the lead at one point before fading on the back nine. He lives in Florida now and can boast a win and a 15% top five strike rate though he has never performed that great here. Anyway he is now injury free and if he putts like he did last week he should go well, he led the putting stats and was actually first with +9 strokes gained on the greens (bugger I’ve used one of them new fangled putting stats!) 100/1 e/w 7 places 90/1 for 8, plus 80/1 w/o the four faves and 130 on Betfair – as you can see I am quite keen.
Leishman was added win only at 50’s on the Exchange, excellent course form including a win and a victory already this year.
I even added a small bet on Adam Long 300 win and 40 top 5, he can appear from nowhere and was 10th last year.
On the Champions –Tour it’s the Hoag Classic and to be honest nothing really leaps out at me. I have bet Ken Tanigawa  at 100/1 e/w – he has been starting well of late before fading and he does play best at home on the West Coast and does have two wins in just 51 starts. I also added a very small play on John Daly at 200/225 – not entirely sure why!

Wednesday 4th
Finally onto the Malaysia Open on the Asia tour, Kota Permai hasn’t been used since 2012 and looking at past stagings short hitting accurate players came to the fore. I guess this makes sense as it’s a shortish tight, tree lined track and it could play even more so as one player said the trees have grown a lot since the last time he played. Those that thrived here had good form at similar tracks such as Delhi, Macau and Linkou to name a few and I have come up with three players.
Ajeteesh Sandhu – 66/70 e/w, he has been 2nd,3rd,3rd around Delhi and won at Linkou in 2017
Siddikur Rahman 175/1 e/w – 3rd and 5th here back in the day and placed form at all the tracks I looked at. The big price is simply down to a couple missed cuts but it was his debut at Millbrook and he never plays Sentosa well.
Local lad Nicholas Fung 500/1 e/w a small play, he has won a couple of events in his homeland before on the ADT so the odds seemed a little dismissive of his chances.

february 26th 12.12
Thursday 20th
One of those days where it all started well, McCumber was -3 through three holes but finished on -2, whilst Munoz twice got to -2 but he was wayward with his drives most of the day and you cannot get away with that around Chapultec.
No further plays were struck as there was no proper in running betting from Puerto Rico.
Left a few “asks” up on Betfair overnight for the Devon National tomorrow

Friday 21st
Well one horse was matched overnight 14/1 for One Of Us – happy with that price
The one horse I was more interested in @ Exeter was Springfield Fox – again it simply jumped for fun at the front and nothing got close – topped up for the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham @ 100/1 e/w
Munoz picked up 5 shots in the last 5 holes to give some hope of a place in Mexico

Saturday 22nd
Up early for Sportinglife Puerto Rico write-up – added Rhein Gibson – possibility of being inspired by all the Australian victories of late
Nothing interesting on the horse front a shame the Eider chase not running always like the race
McCumber fired a second bogey free round to move into place chance, Gibson was uninspired!

Sunday 23rd
Second Sportinglife article of the week – no new bets, if there is nothing that stands out then keep your hands in your pocket, bookmakers “have” to price up, you don’t have to bet.
I added a small e/w bet on Hatton in Mexico, purely on the basis that he had good course form and was improving coming back from surgery and one book was still going three places. He briefly threatened and even reached third at one point but ultimately failed
In Puerto Rico McCumber went backwards and oddly enough it was Whaley who came closest finishing 9th @ 150/1 and a shot or two shy.
So another blank week with nothing back, final monthly total ended +£3250 for Feb ( do  monthly totals that fall on last Sunday in the month). All mainly due to the win of Mito in Colombia – combined with January that’s £6750 for 2020, gladly take that and run for the hills.

Monday 24th
A full day of research with events all over the world this week – going to be very busy compared to last week
My only early bet was KY Lee in the Honda, he finished 7th last year – his best result of the season which came on the back of 25/30 in Phoenix and Puerto Rico. He has just gone 13/14 in those two events scrambling brilliantly and that is what will be needed this week at PGA National 110/1 ew +130 Betfair

Tuesday 25th
With all prices up – a busy day getting bets on – always better once markets have settled and if you don’t jump on early prices you can generally get more on
I had a top up on KY Lee 80/1 without the favourites
In Oman I couldn’t find much I really liked so mostly will be backing in running, plus I will be doing updates for Sportinglife on Friday and Saturday.
I did feel Darren Fichardt was worth a small bet – playing really well in South Africa this past month finishing 1/WD/6/6. Whilst he has no good course form if you go back far enough he is a winner in the desert in Qatar and 80/1 e/w and 100 on Betfair seemed fair.
The one I did like at the price was Marcus Armitage – it’s odd how a player who grabbed so much attention a month ago can fall quickly out of the limelight. Following that heroic 3rd at Randpark (where he had been 5th before) he missed the cut at Abu Dhabi thanks to a poor first round but bounced back in round two. He was a solid 10th here at Al Mouj on the Challenge Tour in his only appearance so maybe lightening can strike twice. He can now play in a more relaxed mood and I really think he has what it takes to win a “small” event like this. I backed him 260 win on Betfair, 200/1 e/w plus all the side markets – top 5/10 and top Nationalities.
Onto the Champions Tour which this week is played on the Omni Tucson course and many players have experience of that course when used on the PGA Tour. The one that stuck out to me was Kirk Triplett who back in the day went 13/77/3/7/13/1 winning on his 6th attempt. On the Champions tour he has gone 14/34/7/13/2 so maybe he can repeat the trick and win on the 6th attempt? He won twice last year and I really don’t understand the 66/70 price tag.
I backed Herron a couple of weeks ago on his Champions Tour debut but he disappointed, I have had a small bet @ 100/1 e/w hoping that he can improve on a course he played well on before.
I will have to leave my other bets til tomorrow once I can finally get on what I want – patience is key!

Wednesday 26th
Finally got all that I wanted on another decent bet on the Champions Tour – this time Chris Dimarco who had his best finish yet when t5th last time. Rather than write loads about him it’s all contained in this article
I put him up last year and to be honest he was woeful but that article shows he is in a better mindset to play well on a course where he has been 2nd before and you can also add in a 1st and 2nd at Phoenix in his PGA playing days.
Onto the Korn Ferry Tour and I can see no harm in re-investing some Mito Pereira winnings even though the price is a lot lower 40/1 e/w. He did play here back in 2017 missing the cut after a good opening round but was in awful form at the time. This former top world amateur is finally showing what he is capable of and an event played at high altitude just like Bogota should be right up his street.
One other small bet on Austin Smotherman who has some great Latino tour form in this neck of the woods and finds a lot of fairways and greens 125/150 e/w
With that all written up I will take a look at the New Zealand Open and will tweet any bets.

february 19th 12.30
Tuesday 18th
Well apart from updating the diary it was a fairly quiet day, having backed Spider Web for the two postponed renewals of the Irish National trial so went in again, the writing was on the wall early on and after being badly hampered by a faller was pulled up quickly. Beginning to think I should just stick to the main and regional “Nationals” and novice handicap chases, talking of which it’s Devon national day on Friday, if it was a nice day I would probably go as it won’t be I probably won’t!
Had a good look through the Sunshine Tour Championship and the Australian events but nothing jumps out at me so just the Puerto Rico Open to add to the WGC event.
I tweeted my main bet as the price of 66/1 about Tyler McCumber was gradually going, I will admit to backing him yesterday at 80/1 but had to top up again at the lower price.
In the early days of this event backing players with strong Florida ties was key and I think that approach still holds water. I remember backing McNeill on that basis and bizarrely enough he had even bought a house in Fort Myers from previous winner Lamely, sadly I have been unable to find out which golfer owns that house now!
Anyway back to McCumber – born in Florida, went to college and still lives in the state – so that’s that box ticked. Current form is not of the highest order (though that hasn’t been important for past winners) but he has made his last three cuts in California which probably isn’t his best part of the world. He will have taken encouragement from playing with Tiger at Torrey Pines on the Saturday and beating him by one. He hasn’t played here before but neither had three of the last five winners so that’s hardly a negative point. He knows how to win which is a key point – three on the Canadian tour and three on the Latino tour and that’s where the deciding factor comes in. He won at Estrella del Mar on the Mexican coast on a very similar course – and who was the last player to win there? Last years winner Martin Trainer.

Wednesday 19th
A lack of bets on the week isn’t a bad thing especially after last weeks disaster but going through the Puerto Rico Open for the umpteenth time I have had one further bet in the shape of Vincent Whaley. He doesn’t tick the Florida box, in fact he ticks very few boxes at all bar it’s his debut. He qualified for the PGA tour on the number through regular season starts on the Korn Ferry tour with a 2nd in the Bahamas on just his second start being the highlight. He has made as many cuts as he has missed so far and just think he may offer a touch of value @ 150/1 though not much.
Well that’s all the bets done for the week, anything in running will be tweeted and I am doing the updates for Sportinglife on Saturday and Sunday for Puerto Rico.
24 hours off now – think I may look at holidays for May/June to Greece as this British weather is getting bloody depressing.

february 18th 10.50
Thursday 13th

First bet down the pan with Schaper only shooting one under on the easy course – will have to find something else to do early mornings the rest of the week.
First in running play in Genesis was Noren – 100/80/50 – fancied him before the off but wanted to see how he started. He started brilliantly but as soon as my wagers were placed he found reverse gear – quickly.
Apart from that I kept the powder dry as Ortiz had a nice opening round but Bubba holed nothing and Na was awful

Friday 14th
Added a bit more on Taylor 150/1 e/w and also put Hahn in the mix
I usually look at the racecards for the weekend on a Friday afternoon but there are inspections everywhere so no real point in wasting time
I added Si Woo Kim to the mix in the Genesis at various prices – coach change may be finally reaping benefits
On the Champions Tour Quigley had an awful finish when bang there on day one whilst on the Korn Ferry Tour quite the opposite happened as Griffin had a good one moving into contention

Saturday 15th
Up early to do Sportinglife article – four outsiders tipped up, mainly ones I had already backed in running plus Reavie
In South Africa Schaper played well on the course I expected him to struggle on -8, 64, if he shoots the same again tomorrow he may place
Followed the Genesis which made for depressing viewing as all mine went backwards on moving day

Sunday 16th
Again early to rise for the Sportinglife article, no new outright bets but a rare 3 ball in the shape of Hahn as I wanted to oppose Reavie and Casey whose final rounds have been poor of late
Schaper did what I thought he would do on the host course, have to remember he is still only 18 years old and is just as likely to shoot a bad score as a good one
I fancied a horse in a low grade handicap chase in Ireland, one day I will learn to leave such races alone
So an evening following golf on three tours with chances everywhere to save the week, this game is a fickle one and at one point it looked really hopeful that the week could be good but within an hour it all turned on its head.
In the Genesis Hahn got to within one of the lead but then limped home and having been about three clear in the three ball bet eventually lost by one. Even Taylor briefly threatened but a three putt from seven feet was his undoing.
On the Champions Tour Quigley was still in the places but double bogeyed the last, I forgot to mention that I had a small bet on Leaney after round one 40/1 with four places, he bogeyed the last to slip to 5th.
To finish it all off on the Korn Ferry tour Griffin had to birdie the last to get in the places, he parred it and finished one shot shy in 7th.
It really is a game of fine margins with a shot either way making all the difference and this week was my turn to get my fingers burnt. It has been a good year so far with so much going my way but it still stings when not one bet provides a return over the week. Time for some much needed sleep and we go again tomorrow.

Monday 17th
Unusually I hadn’t done any prep for this week but with only two events to interest me then I knew it wouldn’t take long to go through everything.
A WGC event with a limited field isn’t something that normally gets my juices flowing but this one is a little different. It seems that over the three years admittedly a couple of Americans have been at the top but European Tour players seem to fill the places and at juicy odds. Chapultec is an old fashioned course played at altitude so different to run of the mill PGA courses and Christian Bezhuidenhout really caught my eye. He was unlucky when losing in a playoff in Dubai last month but won at the weekend at home in South Africa. His win on the very traditional Valderrama course stuck in my memory so he had to go in the book at 125/1 e/w and 160 on Betfair.
Cameron Smith has been pretty poor since his win in Hawaii but Australians have continued to dominate around the globe and I couldn’t resist the 200 win only price on Betfair – after all he was 6th here last year.
I didn’t put up a best bet of the week last week as nobody really qualified but I will do this week and it comes in the shape of another South American Sebastian Munoz. You may think I am barking mad but bear with me as there is method in my madness. I remember backing him at 200/1 when he won on his home course on the Korn Ferry tour in Bogota – a traditional course at an altitude of 9,000 feet. His best results on the PGA tour prior to his win came when 3rd  and 7th at the Greenbrier Old White course, another old traditional track although admittedly not so high at 2,000 feet. If you add in a 2nd and 3rd at El Bosque in Mexico on the Korn Ferry tour at 6,000 feet, and a 6th in Utah you probably begin to see where I am coming from. A pair of opening 69’s on his first visit to Riviera show his game is in pretty good nick, and yes I know this is a step up in class but maybe he will take to the rarified air of Chapultec.
I have backed him on Betfair average 220 win, then e/w at varying prices and place options from 150/1 to 190/1, plus without the favourites 110/1 and even a little FRL @ 100/1

february 12th 12.50
Tuesday 11th

Unusual for me to get all that I wanted on the PGA tour on a Monday but clears up the rest of the week to look at three other events. First one up is the Champions Tour Chubb Classic and good to see a full set of early prices. I guess it is easy to price up with little variation from week to week and a limited field where you can probably discount at least a third of the field.
We have a few debutants this week – Jaidee and Karlsson appear near the top of the market at roughly the same price Els was the other week on his debut. They are top quality players but are they in Els’ league – I don’t think so, either Els was way too big or they are far too short, I guess it is somewhere in between. Instead my eye is drawn to Tim Herron who tees it up on the “Roundbelly Tour” for the first time, though in fairness he has fitted that description for years. With two of his four PGA wins coming in the State of Florida I will give him a chance this week – I got 90/1 e/w but 80/1 is fair enough.
Still kicking myself for not being on Quigley in Morocco but sometimes these things can be missed, the question is can he follow up? Well maybe he can and I don’t want to be kicking myself again, 80/1 has gone but wouldn’t put anyone off @ 66/1.
Decided to take the rest of the day off, sometimes it’s worth waiting for full prices on the lesser tours and you also have more chance of actually getting on.
Wednesday 12th
Early morning start to go through the Dimension Data Pro-Am which is co-sanctioned with the Challenge Tour and marks the final leg of that tours South African swing. It has a decent prize fund and is played over three courses and with some of the bigger named South Africans returning to play it provides quite a conundrum. Schaper was all the rage for the last two events but missed the cut in both and his price has drifted accordingly. I couldn’t find any history of Schaper playing those courses before but he has plenty of history playing this weeks three courses. He played in three renewals of the Dimension Data Junior event progressing from 14th to 7th to 1st in 2017. I have a slight concern that this weeks host course was used for the final round in 2017 and he went out in five over par but battled back well in two under on the back nine to take the title. A reproduction of his 6th in the South African Open would see him go close on courses he knows 80/1 e/w is worth taking.
The Korn Ferry Tour hits the mainland for the first time with the second renewal of the Lecom SunCoast Classic from Florida and two players catch my eye.
J.T Griffin was 5th last year having got in as a Monday Qualifier and often returning to the scene of positive memories can spark a good performance. He has finished 10th and 36th in his two starts this year so his game is in pretty good nick, got an average of 70/1 e/w.
I was on the lookout for a Florida player with some good Florida form and Curtis Thompson ticks those boxes. Brother of Lexi and Nicholas he more or less gave up the game but decided to give it one last push. In his home State he was co-medalist at Q School in December and has already bagged a 3rd and 10th this year to keep his dreams of gaining a PGA tour card very much alive. The missed cut last week has seen his price drift out to a very reasonable 50/1 e/w.
Well – lunchtime Wednesday and I’m all done for the week, nice afternoon off before leaderboard watching starts tomorrow. Next you will hear from me will either be tweeting in running bets or Saturday and Sunday morning doing the Sportinglife column.

february 11th 12.15
Monday 10th

Weeks seems to come around quite quickly and it’s back to the normal routine, I have said before it’s a marathon not a sprint but it’s odd how you can suddenly “hit form” although I have faced this year with a new mindset. Last year I think I had two winners and loads of places, this year already two 100/1 + winners and two playoff losses, it’s a funny old game.
I had already done my research for the Genesis and when I saw an opening line of 30 on Betfair for Bubba Watson I had to snap it up. It was obvious he was going to be well supported, he’s in great form and has won three of the last six renewals here at Riviera. Quite why he plays well in “even” years is a mystery – it could be that it’s Ryder Cup years, it could be that he doesn’t defend well. The one thing we do know is that he is a horses for courses player with two Green Jackets and three wins at River Highlands.
My comment on Twitter about Korean/Americans being inspired by Parasite winning at the Oscars was very much tongue in cheek but I do fancy one – Kevin Na. From being a “can’t win can place” type of player he has turned into a winner with three victories in the last two years and who says he can’t get another on a course where he has been 2nd, 3rd and 4th down the years. His 14th place last week would have been a whole lot better were it not for a run of six holes on Spyglass on Thursday when he dropped seven shots. He seems overlooked to me and 80/1 e/w with seven places and 100 on Betfair is more than fair.
The only other player I liked the look of was Mexican Carlos Ortiz who was 9th last year, 26th in 2016 when bang out of form and in 2015 was 3rd heading into the final round before fading in what was his rookie season – I’m happy to forgive that. He has had a slow start to 2020 but was on fire in the Autumn saying he was inspired by the wins of good friends and practicing partners Munoz and Niemann. His form around here will probably come as no shock when you read what he had to say in 2015
Interviewer What was your home course, what was Guadalajara Country Club like, just the way it was, and did it prepare you well for
CARLOS ORTIZ:  Yeah, it's actually a pretty similar golf course, tree lines, and there's a lot of holes that look kind of the same, same grass, same green, so it's similar.  It's easy for me to shape some shots off the tees, and that's important out here.
I will be the first to admit winning his first title here will be tough but I have played him 175/200 e/w for 6/8 places, 40 top 5 and 18 top 10 plus 150/1 e/w without the top 5 and 250 win only Betfair
The rest of the day was spent going through the Korn Ferry and Champions Tour events from Florida and the Dimension Data Pro-Am, any thoughts will be up Wednesday. I decided to swerve the Australian events – be nice to have some extra sleep!

february 10th 12.34
Thursday 6th

Woke at 4 am to follow the Vic Open – the  prices seemed wrong on Flanagan topped up 100/125
Mito had a nice first round in Colombia – at least that event is on at a decent viewing hour this week.
Over at Pebble Beach – Hadley has a good record here so when he started fast I dove in at 150/1, suffice to say he finished slow
Into the evening and Flanagan continued to be wrong price and Jordan was playing well on host course. Things in Australia were looking promising
Friday 7th
It was good that my players in Australia were finished by just after midnight, I actually managed a good nights sleep which was welcome as the weekend coming up was going to be rather hectic.
I quite fancied a horse in the marathon slog at Bangor as the extended 3 ½ miles was going to take some getting, sadly it plodded home in 4th
Due to seeing a potential bias in the course rotation and possible that the wind could play a part on the Saturday I wanted a couple of players on board who were due to play Spyglass on the Saturday so added Schwartzel and Reavie who had both started well enough at Monterey on day one
Over in Colombia Mito had another solid round
Saturday 8th
I woke early to follow the end of Vic Open – wind really howling but Jordan played well moving into a chance of a place. Flanagan was doing OK til double bogeying last. Min Woo Lee who I backed last week – couldn’t back him this week around 18/1 after last weeks missed cut, although 3 clear still has it all to do to win his first pro title. I am always happy to let a maiden go unbacked at a short price.
My first article for Sportinglife – if you missed it you can read it here.
By the end of the days play in California things were looking pretty dire as the wind never really got up and Spyglass played even tougher than before. Playing on the back of weather forecasts is always tricky, but sometimes it can work in your favour.
At close of play in Colombia Mito was into 5th but four shots out of the lead – he will need a low one tomorrow
Sunday 9th
No joy in Australia with Flanagan and Jordan fading quite badly, and Min Woo Lee winning quite comfortably in the end.
Second article for Sportinglife was up and live
The only real chance of ending the week in profit now lay with Mito in Colombia and the nice thing is they’ll be done by about 8pm – I am beginning to feel the effects of burning the candle at both ends.
Fast forward a few hours and the young Chilean eagles the last for a two shot victory, fantastic result for what I said was the best bet of the week. It looks like you have to be either in your early 20’s and a former top amateur or in your 40’s to win at the moment!
Thanks for all the messages and emails it would appear that quite a few people won quite a bit of money. It’s a shame the Sportinglife columns didn’t get off to a great start (Schwartzel provided a small return) but I guess you can’t have everything.

february 5th 17.27
Tuesday 4th Wednesday 5th

After that brief interlude normal service will resume, I must say the response to what was a departure from the norm was quite incredible, of people sharing similar stories and that speaking out can only help others – thankyou all!
Back to betting – will combine what I have bet this week over the last 3 days in one post as I have been busy over the past few days.
Vic Open – On first glance on Monday I thought what an awful event and I would be better off having a good nights sleep – however on closer analysis I found three that were probably worthy of a small investment. Three rounds are played on the Beach course which is a typical short seaside links so that’s the avenue I pursued.
I backed Matthew Jordan last week at much bigger prices on the basis of his solid amateur links form with wins in the St Andrews Links event and the Lytham Trophy by 9 strokes, and of course 5th in the Alfred Dunhill – a multi course event with a much stronger field. It’s always tough going from 200/1 ew to 50/1 but when you take into account the strength of the field this week compared to last there is a touch of value in the price.
Garrick Porteous hasn’t really kicked on from his top amateur form – British Amateur Champion and Scottish Strokeplay to boot. He has played in events on links courses and not really produced much but his 11th at Leopard Creek makes him just about a play at 175/200 ew
Talking of amateurs who have never really kicked on – Nick Flanagan – 2003 US Amateur champion, and what dates him was “battlefield” promotion to the PGA Tour from the Nationwide Tour in 2007, from there it all went a bit wrong. He was 13th here in 2018 and when it was co-sanctioned last year was derailed in the wind in round three eventually finishing 10th. He was 3rd in the much stronger Australian PGA Champs before Christmas following on from 6th the year before.
If none of them perform I will simply sleep well over the weekend!
AT&T Pebble Beach – as I have said before an event that has served me well over the years, despite the fact that I don’t particularly enjoy watching the “celebreties” most of whom I would have to Google to see who they are. The one player I wanted onside and was pleasantly surprised at the price was Mark Hubbard. It’s all come out now from others about how he proposed to his girlfriend on the 18th back in 2015. He hasn’t achieved much here but he is a vastly improved player this year including a 2nd at Houston – a course which oddly correlates well to this. He was bang there last week until a final round 72 dropped him to 9th when he never recovered from an early double bogey. I was surprised to get 175/1 with differing place options and a decent bet on Betfair at 240. I haven’t had chance to see the tee times yet but he should play best at Spyglass where he has played 40-50 rounds when at college in San Jose.
The only other player I have backed pre-tournament is past winner Vaughn Taylor who is in solid form – 90/1 ew and 100/1 on Betfair.
If I was to nominate a best player to back it would have to be Mito Pereira @ 100/125 on the Korn Ferry Tour as it travels south to Colombia. The Chilean will be pretty much at home at altitude in Bogota as he proved two years ago when eagling the 72nd hole to climb to 8th. Another two years of pro golf under his belt this former World Amateur number 5 will go places and started off this year with a fine 3rd in Panama

february 3rd 23.13
Monday 3rd

I am not sure why I am writing this particular post but it’s my diary and having read the sad news about James Banks today maybe it’s time to say something. If you have never suffered from the all consuming illness that depression is you cannot understand the depths of despair you can sink to. To be at a point where you no longer want to exist on this planet because you can see no future is the darkest place imaginable. I cannot explain how it feels only that it is a fine line between staying and leaving and something will trip the balance one way or the other. It is now four years since I chose to stay, it’s been a long battle but I am now back living my life as I want. So many don’t survive that fight and I won’t go into my own personal details but it happens so often with men who will not share or talk about their problems. It’s very easy to say please talk, but please talk to someone who actually knows where your state of mind is, not any old friend who will probably have no idea where you are, but someone who has been there and come out the other side. I am sorry if anybody is upset by this, but this a “diary” of sorts and it would be wrong to occasionally leave out some “real life”. For me it’s been a long journey and I do not have a job to best cope with the highs and lows of life but it is the only job I know, others are not so lucky to carry on living their dream.

february 3rd 12.30
Thursday 30th

Well Min Woo Lee and Matthew Jordan were both going very well but as soon as the wind picked up they dropped down the leaderboard.
I managed to get on McDowell @ 33/1 e/w (not tweeted as price was gone in nano seconds) also added Hend at an average of 90/1 e/w, and Laporta 125/150 e/w as both were on my radar before the start and were going well in the trickier afternoon conditions
Over in Phoenix Hoge was off to a flyer – e/w FRL money landed – though it wasn’t much of a bet and layed some outright on Betfair @ 22 to give a nice free roll – not a bad start to the week.
Friday 31st
I added Jazzy Jane in running in Saudi – maybe last weeks Dubai form was a bit of a blip – turned out it wasn’t!
I really liked Springfield Fox in the Novice Handicap Chase at Chepstow – had got a mark over hurdles but had been unbeaten in three points in Ireland and I made it closer to favourite. I took 13/2 but it even drifted to 9/1 on Betfair so had a bit more but I did lay some back in running – I needn’t have bothered as it won very easily. The form could be anything but thought he was worth a few quid antepost for the National Hunt Chase 4 miler at Cheltenham 100/1 e/w
Stephen Leaney WAS going well in Morocco – got up into a tie for 3rd only 2 shots back with 6 to play – got his work cut out now to even place
Hoge got off to a poor start in Phoenix and never really recovered – maybe fatigue is kicking it
Saturday 1st
Saw that Pampling was 22/1 with Bet365 for Morocco I hate it when can’t have a bet but got a bit on Betfair – turned out to be a blessing in disguise. Leaney ended up coming shy of a place and Quigley won on his second Champions Tour start at 500/1! I had backed him in his first start in Canada last year and he was woeful and to be honest didn’t even see that he was entered though even then I probably would have passed.
Over in Saudi there was plenty of sand for Gmac and about time I put down the spade and stopped digging though he miraculously ended up in the lead at the end of the day – hopefully he hasn’t used up all of his luck.
I fancied two horses in the big staying handicap chases of the day Classic Ben and Little Bruce but none of them ran very well so gave back some of the Springfield Fox winnings
Onto Phoenix and I really thought Swafford was being underestimated so I kept chipping away e/w at 50’s
It seems to have been a very long day and as much as Thursday and Friday were good today has been very poor
Sunday 2nd
As it was a father/daughter day I couldn’t follow the golf from Saudi and after what had happened in Dubai last week I felt compelled to leave a lay up at 1.2. I still haven’t watched the replay but he ended up a comfortable winner and guarantees me a fourth winning week in a row. It wasn’t a large bet and to be honest I was rather lucky that I was sat here at the computer when I saw the price.
There were tough starts for Hoge/Swafford in Phoenix which sealed my fate there but just had a
feeling someone was going to post an impassable score  - if anyone it was going to be Bubba so had a little bit of the 80/1 ew – that returned a few quid to the coffers. I immediately re-invested it in him for the Masters at 40/1 e/w – he is back in form and will probably go off much shorter.
Swafford showed the pressure this game can put you under – playing on a medical extension he needed top four to secure his card – it clearly showed. However with that clutch putt on the 72nd hole he got in the top ten and won’t have to use up one of his two remaining exemptions at Pebble this week providing he turns up.
As for the showdown between Finau and Simpson – I’m not saying Finau bottled it but Simpson won it.
Time for some sleep – looking forward to Pebble Beach next week, whilst I don’t particularly enjoy watching it I have backed a few winners there over the years and Saturday sees my first column for Sportinglife.

january 29th 12.05
Monday 27th

With the Korn Ferry tour back to normal start and finish times the weekly routine returns to normal, four events for me to look at as I will probably pass on the Sunshine/Challenge tour co-sanctioned event – I mean 200+ low grade players, with two courses and bookmakers I probably can’t even bet with – what could possibly go wrong?!
There has been much talk about Australians inspiring each other to victory of late, some have said it’s to do with a nation ravaged by bush fires pulling together. I don’t buy into that line but I do think there is something in it – more likely players being inspired by each other – sort of “well if he can do it so can I”.
The problem with this little nugget is that everyone thinks the same and is on the lookout for this weeks “candidate” and the obvious one is Min Woo Lee in Saudi Arabia. With that in mind a close eye is needed on the early prices and I get what I wanted at 80/1 e/w and some on Betfair at 75/1. Sometimes you need to know who is going to be tipped up and when and over the years I have developed that knack though I don’t need to use it very often as most of my bets are somewhat leftfield.
Talking of which – my Aussie to look out for plays on the Champions Tour this week which travels to Morocco. With very few having any form in the country, and definitely the course, it’s time to hit the history books. Leaney caught my eye as way back in 1998 on his sole trip to the country he won the European Tour Moroccan Open by a staggering 8 shots. Somehow I think I have managed to convey this fact to Leaney just in case he had forgotten (you know who you are!!) That’s the simple bit done – now to get on – in the end managed what I wanted spread over prices of 125/150/175. No doubt he will bomb but he played well to finish tied 4th at Q School last month after a very fast start and in his prime was a decent player.
A cursory glance through the Phoenix Open shows last weeks success Tom Hoge priced up at 100/1 which seems generous for a man in form – 12/6/5 and who sat 12th going into the final round here last year. When you consider he had just missed the first three cuts of the year in the same events he has played well in 2020 then he has to be a back this week.
Tuesday 28th
A day spent backing Hoge at what I think are daft prices – I went in too early at 110 on Betfair so topped up at 140/150, now have £75 on @ 125 average and £60 on a top 5 @ 25. The only other player I have backed on the PGA tour is Ryan Moore win only 100 on Betfair, played well in the Desert Classic and has a solid bank of form here.
Sticking to my guns that less is often more and have only added two more for Saudi – Hao Tong Li has been disappointing in his last 4 rounds but is worth a small save at 75.
My rank outsider is young Matthew Jordan – have managed to get £35 330 and backed him in lots of other markets – top 10 20/1, top GB/Ire 50/1 ew etc. It’s his first start of the year so I am wary of a bit of rust – it was the case last year where he started slowly but 2nd and 3rd rounds of 65 and 67 saw him finish a creditable 34th in the end. One thing that caught my eye was a few months before that he shot middle rounds of 67 and 66 to finish 32nd at the Alfred Dunhill links. A couple of months ago he used that experience to finish 5th on his second attempt, hopefully history repeats itself. He’s a fine coastal links player with wins in the St Andrews Links event and the Lytham Trophy by 9 strokes, and gained his first pro win on the Challenge Tour last year.
Tomorrow will be spent looking at the Korn Ferry event in Panama and any tips will be up on Twitter.

january 27th 11.43
Thursday 23rd

An earlyish start to the day and awoke to find Norris going well – I followed for a few hours and as I had a big position on him I layed my Betfair stake back @ 25/1. Unfortunately I fell asleep waking up to find he had traded a lot lower and that he tripled the last, at least I now had a free roll on my Betfair bets. I got some stick on Twitter for “after timing” – well as most of this diary is after timing and I cannot always tweet everything I do then I don’t really care.
A small bet on Guerrier e/w was struck as he was charging up the leaderboard only to see him charge swiftly back down again.
First horse bet for a while in the Thyestes Chase – I liked the look of Lord Schnitzel in his first run in a handicap, he was well backed but didn’t seem to stay. I also noticed Elliott had pulled out two of his which allowed second reserve Out Sam into the field – another of his. I always take note of things like that, he was a huge price on Betfair and was duly backed just before the off – again to no avail. To be honest I wanted to see how he ran as I still fancy him for the Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham, due to the poor visibility I am none the wiser.
Just before the off in the Farmers Insurance I added Palmer on Betfair as he drifted to 85 – he won’t win but could trade lower, and also added in form Hoge  at 300/40/17 for the win/5/10 markets.
In running play on J.B Holmes 80/1 e/w who was going well on the tough south course and has good form here
Just before bed decided to lay some more Norris, with that triple bogey finish and last weeks horror second round fresh in the mind it seemed a prudent thing to do
Friday 24th
My body clock is all over the shop, up early again and backed Gagli at huge price but he did the same as Guerrier yesterday. Dubai playing really tough and I thought of other tough courses – Bezuidenhout had won at Valderrama so he went into the book at 125/1 e/w and a small bet on Betfair.
Over in California Ryan Palmer was charging on the easy course – his price varied from 20 – 125!! I managed some e/w at 90. The charge continued and I layed a load back at 7/1 – the fact he hasn’t won for ten years and his form at the tough course is average meant I was happy to do so
Saturday 25th
Following golf from Dubai most of the morning – added bets on Lewis 60/1, Forrest 90/1 and finally MacIntyre 125/1 – it’s always wise to back them e/w before the round finishes as once done place terms are cut.
Just the one extra bet at Torrey Pines – Hossler was another one of those Junior champions here and 80/1 win only was worth a small investment.
Sort of a night off – won’t be watching golf as I am quizmaster at our local pub, well it makes a change from following people hitting a small white thing with a stick
Sunday 26th
Long term plans to help the folks with some jobs meant I was unable to follow the last few hours of play, I made my Betfair book nice and green with a lay of Bez at 2/1 and set off hoping it continued to play tough. I saw the result after the conclusion of play – second playoff loss in a week – somewhat frustrating is an understatement. Maybe I should have left some short price lays up – hindsight is a wonderful thing, but I can’t sit here all day – sometimes other things in life take over. You just have to remember the lays of people like Palmer and Norris, which long term more than make up for the odd wrong move.
Onto California – Holmes and Palmer fell away but Hoge continued his solid play and booked a full top five and ten place. Overall it’s been another solid profitable week.
I am not a massive punter, I don’t do ROI or any other fancy stat analysis - I am old school (which may astonish some) I just look at the bottom line – profit and loss.
I know I don’t  really talk about money and stakes (apart from Betfair)  but I will give a monthly summary of my profit and loss. As a 52 year old singleton who doesn’t live a lavish lifestyle I have the time to sit here and work 60 hours a week – the reward for this month was £3500 profit. Some would say it’s not a great hourly rate but as someone who hasn’t worked for anyone for 20 years I am pretty much unemployable so I’ll happily take it. Sadly it’s tax month and most of it will be going straight back, that’s earnings from other things by the way, thankfully betting winnings are exempt although some weeks I wish losses could be put against tax!

january 22nd 12.51
Tuesday 21st

A day spent getting what I want on Betfair for the Dubai Desert Classic – only bets with bookmakers are McDowell w/o the favourites 80/1 e/w  - a very small bet – would have been much bigger if allowed lol. I also did Norris 125/1 6 places with Hills when they pushed him out to 125/1.
My Betfair book before the off looks like this
Hao Tong Li £30 44.0 £1290
Jazzy Jane £25 50.00 £1225
Shaun Norris £75 167.35 £12476
McDowell £30 119.76 £3563 + £20 top 5 21.0 £400
I really fancy Li this week but don’t think there is any mileage in his price, he won two years ago and really was t3rd last year if you take out the daft two stroke penalty at the last. He showed last week he was in reasonable form being bang in contention until a quadruple bogey stopped him in his tracks and to be honest he hadn’t made a cut at Abu Dhabi before.
Jazzy Jane has been in phenomenal form  - whether he can take it up a level is open to debate but is worth a small saver.
McDowell is a bit shorter than the 150/1 he was when placing for me at the Sony and I can’t entertain a bet at the bookmaker price but the Betfair price is very generous.
Norris was in scintillating form in Japan at the end of 2019, interestingly he beat Jazzy Jane in their last five meetings. The difference in price this week is rather odd as Norris was 6th last week in Abu Dhabi, he co-led after the first round then shot a bizarre 77 before a bogey free 11 under at the weekend. I really don’t understand his price at all – hence the large Betfair bet, though I will be looking to trade as he doesn’t win that often.
The rest of the day was spent following the fortunes of Wilcox who was +3 through four but finished one under – not a bad recovery and he is a better chaser than leader
Wednesday 22nd
A quiet morning – completing research into the PGA tour – I may not have had many bets but I like to have a set of notes of players I may back in running should they start well.
Nothing more to add to the diary for today – I intend to sit back and follow the Korn Ferry Tour in the Bahamas, a place from Wilcox would be nice but it looks like the wind is going to blow today so scores should be all over the shop. An early night is then on the cards as Dubai starts early in the morning
Oh – forgot to add – for those who didn’t notice a little announcement yesterday – I will soon be writing some articles for Sportinglife – basically after the cut and pre final round plus the odd one for big events on the smaller tours. Really looking forward to it and it’s nice to have been given the opportunity by Ben Coley.

january 21st 11.24
Monday 20th
Bit of a quieter this week which is probably a good thing – nothing worse than having a really good week and thinking you are Billy Big Bollocks and losing a load of it.
Two very difficult events to have a go at too with favourites at the top looking dangerous.
Second round of the Korn Ferry event saw Wilcox move through the field and into 3rd, I guess I also got lucky as someone left some prices up on Betfair in running so I now have a free bet on a few to win after a bit of trading. “Mistakes” don’t happen very often but they are nice when they do but still two days to go and wind looks set to blow on the final day.
Have decided to keep much of my powder dry for Torrey Pines – with the two courses in play it often makes sense, you can shoot yourself out of it with a high score around the South course and similarly with an average round at the North course. So – just a few small plays on Ryan Palmer – played well at the Sony and oddly enough didn’t play last week where he has a great record. He gave this event a miss for many years but has been 2nd and 13th the last two years but remember it’s been ten years since his last solo win. Small e/w 70/1 and without the faves 45/1 e/w
Will take a chance on two players who have four Junior World Championship titles between them here at Torrey. The much touted youngster Niemann (70/1 win only) who won in 2015 and 2016 – the latter by eight shots. You have to go back to 2006 and 2008 to see Greyson Murrays wins here – small e/w 250/1 and win only 330.

january 20th 10.41
Sunday 19th

A day of rest for a lot of people – and often for me! But not today.
I decided to stay up and follow Els IF he got into contention – which he duly did. By 3 am he had posted a clubhouse target of -14, three others were tied and one of them surely would pick up a birdie. Amazingly none did, plus Langer had a meltdown. A three way playoff ensued but sadly Els could not prevail and never traded at a low price, in all fairness Jimenez should have won in regular time with a couple of putts ending up in the jaws but not dropping. I still think the call was right to have a big bet, I had made him half the price he was – just a shame about the opening level par round. I doubt very much he will be that big a price again. Place money bagged to basically give me a free week.
After just four hours sleep I woke up to follow Abu Dhabi, it was already a forlorn hope anyway, I should have stayed in bed.
Sunday lunch and a bottle of vino followed by a much needed “siesta” and it was on to the PGA tour.
I felt that Landry was trading too low early on and traded some back to ensure a nice winning week, at first it transpired that I had played too early and within a few holes maybe not. He was caught in the lead but he didn’t seem totally flustered and played the last two holes with supreme confidence.
I often sit here and kick myself when I lay back some potential winnings, today was a prime example, I gave back 25% of my win pot on Landry. There is that moment of regret that I should have been braver but over the years I have learnt that over time a steady income stream is much better than long lows with the odd massive high. This weeks event had some scar tissue from 2013 when Stallings had been backed and really should have won but made a mess of the last few holes to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. It all evens out in the end.
Life is a rollercoaster, I hate rollercoasters – do I want to get off – hell no!!

january 18th 11.41
Thursday 14th

Apart from Larrazabal this weeks betting in Abu Dhabi was always going to be about in running for me even though I had no intention of getting up at 3 am to start. Pablo had a mare to be honest 17 pars and one double bogey means I will be amazed if he even makes the cut. I had a couple of small in running bets on Hao Tong Li 66/1 who whilst having a poor record here (missed cuts both starts) he has won the Dubai Desert Classic. I added an even smaller bet on former winner Robert Rock at 250/1 ew
I really fancied Dawson City in the Somerset National at Wincanton and had secured some nice prices on Betfair through the night, the course would have been a bog which he would have relished, however the course was more like a swamp and the meeting was abandoned. I did have a small bet on a horse a friend has an interest in at Market Rasen in the listed mares bumper but she ran into something a bit special in Panic Attack – one to keep an eye on at Cheltenham if sent over as she  will get age and sex allowance.
Onto the Pro-Am event in California – actually on at a nice time to follow for me, I refuse to sit here 24 hours a day following so pick times to dip in and out. Last year I had a decent bet on Andrew Landry before the start but didn’t deliver – I have him marked down as a player that when he is on he definitely is and when he isn’t he’s extremely poor. He opened with three straight birdies and I managed a decent bet @ 100/1 ew, he finished six under so happy with that.
Taylor and Todd both shot -3 but are certainly not out of it, I added a bit on Todd for a place at 22/1 as I had him win only.
So off to bed – saw Els was two under through four – hope he can keep it going.
Friday 17th
The answer to the Els question was – no he can’t!!
Woke up fairly early and jumped on Luiten – small ew 50/1 and some on Betfair for the win at 45/1 – he has such a great record around here.
Big hitting Adri Arnaus playing solidly this week without a bogey so far, am sure he will breakthrough this year, 150/1 e/w a fair price to get on board.
A pretty quiet rest of the day with no more bets, was good to see Landry make a nice move and he really does have a great chance now. I cannot tweet every in play bet I have – though I did that one, but I will aim to write about all my bets – the good, the bad and the downright ugly.
Talking of the latter it would appear Els was going to fall into that category but he bounced back tonight – it could have been so much better as he was six under through seven, but at least he now has a chance to place.
Saturday 18th
Back to the theme of downright ugly – that just about sums up my bets in Abu Dhabi.
There would appear to be some sort of big yellow thing in the sky so this afternoon will mean getting some much needed country air.
It will be a long evening with a late start in Hawaii – remember it’s the final round tonight.
I have one bet for this weeks Korn Ferry event in the Bahamas but I haven’t got everything I want on yet so will tweet it in the morning

january 15th 17.10
Tuesday 14th and Wednesday 15th
Will combine these two days together as they have blended into each other a bit bettingwise.
Carl Yuan can’t play in strong winds – missed the cut by a mile.
Yesterday I tweeted about Pablo Larrazabal in Abu Dhabi, I availed myself of the bits allowed at 90/1 and 100/1 with 8 and 6 places and topped up at 80/1 e/w. It just seems such a daft price for a player who won his last start only a month ago and has been 1st, 2nd and 6th here. Admittedly he struggled to get over the line but a win is a win, and he seems to play his best here on his seasonal debut having had a good end to the previous year. As I type this he is back out to 130 on Betfair – probably due to his afternoon tee time, will save any other bets for in running.
American Express pro-am thingy in California, I am surprised there has been no mention of Vaughn Taylor ( he with the missing “a”). Finished last season on a high with 2nd and 10th, and was a real eyecatcher on his debut this season. He opened with a 75 yet climbed all the way to 12th having made the cut on the number. He was 7th here last year and of course has already won the other pro-am in California at Pebble Beach – taken 70 for the win on Betfair and 50/55 e/w.
A mention has to go to Brendan Todd, I don’t much like his bookmaker price but 80 on Betfair is too big for a player that won Q School around these courses back in 2011 so he should have some fond memories.
In Singapore nobody stands out as a bet but Gunn Charoenkul seems a decent e/w bet for accumulators having gone 4/2/5/3 in his last four starts and was 7th here last year, I have combined him at 16/1 in a little e/w Trixie with Oosthuizen 16/1 and Jerry Kelly on the Champions tour at 8/1. Just gives me something to cheer if there aren’t outsiders in contention!
Talking of the Champions Tour another late night/early morning beckons as it’s their turn to tee it off in Hawaii. A bit of a weird event with last years winners, plus the winners of Majors in the last two years and a sprinkling of invitees. Normally the invitees are there to make up the numbers but this year it’s the turn of Ernie Els to make his Champions Tour debut. Now normally it’s all pretty much guesswork as to what price a player should be on his debut on this tour, my personal guess was around the 10/1 mark so I had to wade in at 20/1 e/w. Those with top form at the course include Toms, Kelly whilst Cook and Irwin have both won it twice and all four of those have also won the Sony Open. Well Ernie has won that twice and you can chuck in a 2nd,3rd and 5th for good measure, whilst you can add in a liberal sprinkling of 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 3rd at Kapalua. Quite simply he loves golf in Hawaii so it comes as no surprise he makes his debut here and it is also worth noting he didn’t play in his home Open last week to be ready for this.

january 13th 12.05
Saturday 11th

Bloody rhodent – another awful nights sleep, don’t think much will be done today as totally shattered.
Three staying chases today and don’t fancy a single horse, very quiet week on that front.
Chawrasia couldn’t follow up a low one (so often the case) laying him back for a free ride was a good move.
Big price in play bet Armitage scythed through the field to give some hope in South Africa, hopefully he can back it up tomorrow. If you haven’t seen any interviews with the “bullet” check them out – what a great guy.
Sony Open – well lets just say it doesn’t look promising
Sunday 12th
Finally a good nights sleep, that was the end of the good news, Chawrasia had tumbled down the leaderboard failing to place. Looking at the final standings I can’t imagine the layers were best pleased with he top four in the betting filling the places and I can imagine Ormsby was well backed as a past winner in good form. I just couldn’t pull the trigger on Wade as he has such a poor winning strike rate.
Sony Open leaderboard looks even worse for me now, was shocked to see Steele leading on -12, couldn’t have picked him in a month of Sundays. Will need a low one from Gmac to make the places, on the plus side it will probably mean an early night.
A day of research – lots of events next week whilst cheering on Armitage, then Bahamas starts – a never ending rollercoaster until the end of January.
Armitage bumped into a Grace on fire, but he played well considering the position he was in. We need more characters like him, his passion for the game and clearly money isn’t the main priority in his head I think. Saw him tweet this morning walking the streets of Joburg with his luggage trying to find a bus to the course – says it all really. That celebration on the 18th having booked his Open ticket was rather magical and what sport really is all about.
Took about seven hours off and away from the computer – watch the beginning of Sony and see if it was worth staying up, hmm so far yes, Gmac on a roll, few quid e/w Griffin @ 200/250 – so much for an early night.
As I type this the time is 12.10 so I guess this moves to Monday!
Monday 13th
I watched Gmac finish and by then the eyes were closing, nothing I can do to make anyone make bogeys so went to bed! Nice to wake up to a full place payout – any week with 150/1 and 200/1 e/w bets landing is a good week for the bank balance. Betting at high odds means winners are infrequent and place payouts keep the bankroll ticking along nicely.
It’s going to be a busy week with no less than seven events to look at plus the Korn Ferry tour in progress until Wednesday.

january 10th 15.02
Monday 6th

A busy day for me – first job of the day is to go through the meetings for the week to check where and when any staying chases are taking place – looks like being very quiet until the end of the week. I only look at these races as I simply don’t have the time to get to know thousands of horses, by limiting yourself to certain races you get to know a realistic number.
Onto the golf – three events, shortlists drawn up and then sit and wait for prices to gradually appear.
South African Open looks a complete nightmare – 240 players over two courses and all of them rusty, will just have some minor interest in a few with good amateur form here – Porteous, Law and Higgo – keep the powder dry for in running probably the best idea.
Hong Kong Open – there will be three short priced favourites so this will make it a good e/w betting heat – probably have to wait until tomorrow for a decent set of prices, Chawrasia and Shin look the best options
Sony Open is the best betting heat of the week and one that has served me well – 20 years ago Azinger was my first ever 100/1 winner!! You can read about my picks below rather than repeat myself.
Tuesday 7th
Mostly spent sat on my arse getting any other bets on for the golf – always like to look at the Betfair Sportsbook markets betting without the favourites (not that I get much on) but they supplement other outright bets
Wednesday 8th
Both staying chases at Ludlow only have 7 runners and as I tend to back e/w at big prices they hold no interest for me. Looked at the two staying chases at Catterick tomorrow  especially the North Yorkshire National but nothing jumps out at me bar Little Bruce but happy to pass at around 5/2 – just not my sort of bet.
Late into the evening but before the start of the Hong Kong Open I get a message saying that one of the picks Chawrasia is a big price on Betfair  (thanks Niall) – managed to drip feed a few bets to eventually get to £30 matched at 220/1 – not bad for what I think is a genuine 50/1 shot. Either someone knows he’s injured or a bot has gone a bit mad.
Thursday 9th
Wake up to find Chawrasia hasn’t had a bad first round, level par and tied 30th and nobody has run away with it which always helps. Quite liked Dodt before the off but couldn’t get on at 40/1 which was my minimum price – bullet dodged as he shot +6.
Attention turned to South Africa – if I am going to back anyone would rather back someone going low on the tougher Firethorn track who has past form here - Marcus Armitage catches my eye sat on -4 through ten holes – managed to get a small bet on at an average 200/1 e/w. Will probably be my only play here before tomorrow.
Field finally available for Korn Ferry Tour – back to research mode.
Little Bruce wins at Catterick – went off 15/8 matched at 150 for pennies in running, sometimes happy to see a short priced one go in unbacked. Called the race right that’s all I can say.
Father/Daughter evening so didn’t see golf scores from Hawaii until 10pm – looks tough – happy to play Hahn and Swafford to small stakes e/w at 150/1 each
Friday 10th
A bad nights sleep for the second night in the row – not leaderboard watching, kept awake by the f*****g mice tap dancing with hob nailed boots on in the loft above my bedroom, the joys of country living.
Anyway as I was up long before the larks it was good to see Chawrasia climb to 2nd place and as I have a very nice position on Betfair and with the books will be looking to lay some back to basically give me a free ride.
Also saw that Conners had a pleasing finish to his round to sit tied 6th.
As I only had a very small bet in South Africa topped up on Porteous at 250/1 e/w as he was going quite well on the easier course
First horse bet of the week came in the 1.15 Thurles – needn’t have bothered, really shouldn’t get involved in low grade Irish handicaps, probably better off playing the Irish lotto in a bookmakers.

january 8th 12.00
The Sony Open is the first full field PGA tour event of the year and it has been a happy hunting ground over the years for me with a few big priced winners backed. The last few years have seen the trend of players who have had a warm up at Kapalua taking the honours here and Corey Conners is the one that catches my eye the most from last week. Only a cold putter prevented him from finishing higher than 19th but his iron game was as strong as ever hitting as many GIR as he usually does and that is a key stat this week. Course form is not always vital here but if a player has some then that’s a bonus and the Canadian was 3rd last year. When you consider he got off to a bit of a slow start before closing with a pair of 64’s then last weeks start must be a benefit. He has also shown in the past he likes playing early in the year – in 2017 he was 5th and 7th in the two Bahamas events on the Korn Ferry tour, both courses windy and coastal, whilst in 2016 he was 3rd and 9th on the Latino tour. Tipped up on Twitter on Monday 40 pts ew 50/1 – split over 6/7/8 places
Others to mention (mainly backed on Betfair) – Sebastian Munoz 10th last year and also 3rd and 7th on another Seth Raynor track The Old White who also won his second start of the year in 2016. Graeme McDowell shook off the rust last week and past winner of the Mayakoba – a great guide for this week, seems at his best on the coast with a win in the Dominican Republic last year and of course Pebble Beach. One player making his 2020 debut who has good form here is Zac Blair 3rd and 6th in the past and finally got a pro win on the Korn Ferry tour last year. He is probably best backed for a top 5 or 10 or w/o the six favourites with Betfair.
I put up two for Hong Kong on Twitter where the top three take a huge chunk out of the market and are opposable and create a nice each way market – Chawrasia 66/80 and Shin @ 80.
Thoughts on South Africa are minimal, 240 rusty players over two courses means it’s probably best to wait until 170 are knocked out! Plenty of players have good amateur form here, Porteous won by 14 here in 2013 and was 7th last year though I believe that was played on the Bushwillow course only used once this week, whilst Higgo won a matchplay event on the Firethorn course in 2016 and is a promising young player. David Law has been mentioned by a few and he has fond memories of both courses having won both the matchplay and strokeplay amateur events played here in 2011 and of course won last year in another event held over two courses.

january 6th 16.29
The poll has revealed that roughly 75% would like to read about my betting exploits – so my apologies to the other 25% you will simply have to ignore the posts.
For those that don’t know me – a quick introduction – I am 52 and three quarters, divorced father of two teenage kids who lives in a wonderful remote village in Devon with my 10 year old retired racing lurcher who goes by the unusual name of Mouse. That bit is clearly stolen from my online dating profile (joke!)
I haven’t worked for anyone else for twenty years now, apart from freelance work, and I bet on golf and National Hunt racing but only staying handicap chases.
I hope you enjoy reading my trials and tribulations and maybe you will find the odd pearl of wisdom or simply laugh at some of my more stupid bets!
Wednesday 1st
I think I may have over indulged at last nights celebrations – thankfully I did my homework before going out. Woke up to mixed messages on the two I backed, Western Climate @ Exeter was now a lot shorter than the 11/1 e/w I took eventually going off 9/2 and staying on for 3rd. The other one was a complete mystery and shows just how volatile markets can be. A new French import for Elliott chucked into a handicap chase on its first run in Ireland Cheb de Kerviniou looked really interesting and I had backed it win only 100/30. It drifted all day on Betfair and before the first show was 16/1 and I kept backing it. It opened @ 11/1 and then was backed into 6/1! Having probably overstaked and going win only I decided to lay it in running to get my stake back and guarantee a win, this was easily achieved at 2/1 and it actually touched 1/3 before finishing 2nd. Overall a pleasing start to 2020.
Thursday 2nd
First day of the golf from Hawaii, a long wait until the evening before starting and although I hadn’t staked much on Todd was keen to see him get off to a fast start. Quite simply  - it didn’t happen but he recovered well enough from +2 through 8 to finish two under. I foolishly topped up in running @ 150/1 and 200/1 and even added Kang and Frittelli at three figure prices. It never ceases to amaze me that a simple click of a mouse thousands of miles away can render a golfer unable to find the bottom of a hole with a white ball. The tone was set for the rest of the week.
Friday 3rd
A day of sitting on my hands and my cash – end result being lots of research for next weeks golf events, you have to be ready before the prices start coming out on a Monday. Mouse was pleased too as she got a nice long walk in the sun, a rare commodity in Devon of late
Saturday 4th
Woke to see golfers had only moved downwards but surprised to see GMac 8/1 top European when only a shot behind Rahm and playing better in the blustery conditions which were predicted for the last two days. You can only make a judgement call at the time and I felt 5/1 was more the price.
Watched racing and having backed Looks Like Murt at 8/1 was pleased to see him go off at 7/2 and travelling strongly when the jockey fell off. Then Horatio Hornblower in the veterans chase at Sandown (a mate owns an ear in it) 16/1 e/w – again travelling well, jockey fell off. I think someone was trying to tell me something.
Research for Sundays Sussex National – Uallrightharry ticks a lot of boxes, surprisingly got what I wanted on at 10/1 ew
Sunday 5th
Golf looked even worse than the day before – line through that for the week – no point in chasing.
Talking of chasing – horse had drifted on Betfair so topped up 14/1 win and 13/1 e/w. It may sound like an odd price but with limited bookmaker options the Betfair e/w market can be rather good. You don’t get the benefit of BOG or extra places but the prices more than make up for it. Having had two unseats the day before I knew the horse had a propensity for losing its rider at the last fence so left a lay up at Evens just in case. Off to the pub to watch, lay matched, e/w bet secured as another place was booked.
A poor start to the year on the golf almost made up for by some returns on the horses. One of them winning would have made a big difference on the week but not too much damage done and after all it’s a marathon not a sprint

december 30th 10.29
I stated on Twitter a few days ago I actually miss writing down my thoughts, it gives me clarity on my own bets. Therefore I will attempt to write something each week going forward into 2020. It won’t necessarily happen every week but will try to put something up here – I hope you enjoy reading my thoughts – be warned – normally left field!

The Plantation Course at Kapalua has been tweaked ahead of this years Tournament of Champions with new grass on the greens and fairways, but if they haven’t narrowed the latter by 50 yards the winning score will still be well under par if there is no wind.
Whilst looking at past results what becomes evident is that previous experience is paramount, the last player to win on his debut was Daniel Chopra back in 2008. If you look at the last five renewals only three players have made the top five on their course debut – Rahm (12/1) Koepka (28/1) and Matsuyama (12/1). I think we can safely say all three are world class players so I wouldn’t put anyone off a place lay of all debutants.
If that is a simple way of narrowing the field it leaves us with only 19 players vying for 5 places although this years field gives the impression it is stronger than in recent history. The other thing that sort of catches my eye is that most winners tend to have found their way into this event courtesy of a win later in the season rather than at the beginning.
Most people will also say that you have to be a big hitter to win round here – it certainly helps but it is not a crucial factor – just ask 2014 winner Zach Johnson.
The one player that catches my eye at a decent price is Brendon Todd who at the beginning of the year languished outside the worlds top two thousand – he is now 63rd! That meteoric rise came courtesy of back to back wins and then a 4th in the RSM just over a month ago. He is one player who probably didn’t want to take a break for Christmas but I doubt his game has gone that rusty. He also ticks the box of playing here before – 8th on his debut in 2015, and as far as debutants go that was better than most achieve
My staking plan is in the 0-100 point range and for me Todd is a 25pt ew bet @ 50/1 1/5 5

october 11th 10.37
Since gambling began punters have been searching for the goose that lays the golden egg, I remember in my youth poring over huge volumes of past racing results and going back over countless copies of the Racing Post trying to find that “special system” – all in vain!
Things have changed over the last 20 years with modern technology and so much data available online but it hasn’t necessarily meant the elusive goose has been found. Where technology has helped however is in building computer models and algorithms to find value selections in whatever sport you follow.

I was approached some time ago by a company called Jolly Lock who have been specialising in using their computing knowledge to problem solve in the gambling arena. They have brought out several products over the past few years but the one I want to talk about is Betscape.

Put simply it is a value betting algorithm that has been developed over the past ten years by their inhouse mathematician.
It is a mathematically based system, not a form-based system.  Betscape constantly monitors the horse racing markets and sends out tips when good value bets are found. It works very simply as a Java based application on your Desktop that automatically places bets via your accounts when a selection is found.

You can choose the stake you wish – from £5 to £20, stakes are win only and selections are only given once the market has settled. One important rule of betting on horses – you won’t get much on at early prices and your card will be marked.

I have been monitoring how Betscape has performed since May – the results below are based on a £20 win stake

May +£607.20
June +£1266.00
July +£1473.80
August +£535.60
September +£1067.80

The system itself has been running for 18 months with an average of 7 selections a day with a 27% strike rate and an ROI of 13%
What’s the catch I hear you say? Well you will need –a minimum  of four of the following Bet365, Betfair Sportsbook, Bet Victor, Betway, Paddy Power, William Hill, Coral & Ladbrokes offering Best Odds Guaranteed.
The system tracks every Members bet, the odds secured, bookie used etc. then produces individual profit and loss reports for each Member – obviously this will vary from customer to customer depending on what bookmaker accounts they hold.
There are no subscription fees – at the end of each month clients are billed a percentage of their profits based upon the performance of Betscape with their accounts.
So is Betscape laying golden eggs? – well maybe not golden but it’s certainly laying eggs for nothing – you can liken it to mining for Bitcoin, simply turn on the app on your computer and let it mine for money.
I have negotiated a free 2 week trial for anyone interested (although all you will see are the daily totals) or you can simply sign up and get started – to do either simply follow this link

July 16th 22.30
It's Open Championship week and you can read some of my thoughts about the event here
I have varying positions on golfers mentioned and as I have tweeted over the past few months some of those players have been backed at bigger odds. I have also backed HT Li though I am concerned that he was talking of an injury last week but played OK in the second round.
While the cats away the mice can play and the Barbasol event on the PGA tour really is one of the weakest fields of the year. Last year I picked out a player who has now become known affectionately as "Mr Monday" due to his Monday qualifying exploits and getting through sectional qualifying for the US Open. Chip McDaniel has managed a 5th place at the equally weak Domincan Republic event back at the end of March. He was a bit disappointing last year but with an extra year under his belt maybe he will perform well at Keene Trace where he opened 64/66 and went on to win the Kentucky Amateur by six shots in 2017 - probably worth a punt e/w at the 125/1

June 26th 11.34
I was going to have an article published for this weeks US Senior Open but unfortunately due to time constraints that didn’t quite happen – so as I had done the research I thought I may as well share a few thoughts and observations.
Akin to its PGA counterpart the Senior version is a nomadic event and this week pitches up at the Warren golf course, Notre Dame, South Bend Indiana – and for the first time the USGA hosts an event at a collegiate course. I don’t think the Coore/Crenshaw design will be a pushover and is certainly long enough at just shy of 7000 yards for a par 70. It is described as a links style course set in 250 acres of woodland so think Sunningdale rather than St Andrews – with less heather! What you do off the tee doesn’t seem to be key though long hitters will be advantaged due to the fact that the main defence of the course are the small, narrow well protected greens – think Pebble Beach.
My betting is usually price driven but occasionally a golfer comes up where I don’t necessarily think the price is standout and that applies to Marco Dawson this week. It’s been nearly four years since his last victory at the aforementioned Sunningdale in the Senior British Open and he has been in the doldrums for most of the time. This year however he has been 2nd and 4th twice on the Champions Tour mainly due to some impressive GIR stats. Over the last few months he has been hitting 80% of greens – much higher than anyone else in the field and a part of the game that should be key this week. A price tag of 45/1 is no gimme but I just have a feeling he will go well this week with conditions to suit.
In the last six Senior Majors the form of Paul Broadhurst reads 1/5/32/32/6/3 and to be honest he really should have won at least one of the last two. He has also won a Senior British Open and his first Champions Tour victory came at Pebble Beach and at 50/66 there is certainly a touch of value in his price.
Storylines often have a way of writing themselves and that certainly would be the case should local man and former PGA tour winner Chris Smith prevail this week. He is the only one in the field who has prior knowledge of the course – so what has he been up to of late? He only turned 50 in April and this is his first Senior Tour start, he tried to qualify for the tour at Q School last year but a poor 3rd round wrecked his chance. He qualified for this week by taking medallist honours at the Indiana qualifier last month. He has been preparing for this week by playing Indiana State senior events winning the last four straight by a combined 14 shots – not bad as these are only one or two round events. Admittedly that level of form is way short of this level of event but shows his game to be in good order. It will be a very emotional event for Smith as last week marked the ten year anniversary of losing his wife in a tragic car accident and there wouldn’t be a dry eye in the house were he to lift the trophy on Sunday. At 250/1 he is a real long shot and he maybe worth a bet @ 125/1 in the first round leader market as he is first off tomorrow.

June 12th 11.37
One of my favourite golf betting weeks of the year - always brings back fond memories of my two biggest weeks in 25 years of betting on golf though I never actually bagged the winner!
2008 - all my bets were in place, mainly lumping on Rocco Mediate - outright, outright without Woods, top US without Woods etc . I was off on holiday to the Isles of Scilly with no real internet connection. I maintained my Betfair positions by sitting in the Tourist Board Office paying for a connection on an ancient computer. At night all I could do was sit and watch the scores tick over on Ceefax and it painfully went to the fifth day. In the end Tiger beat Rocco on one leg and my winnings weren't as great but still well into five figures but also saw the closure of my first betting account - so long Paddy Power.
Four years on and again was on off on holiday - bets were in place - this time Michael Thompson who had played so well at the Olympic Club in the US Amateur, this time he strolled to an easy lead after round one and luckily I was able to manage Betfair positions on my phone as he eventually rallied to finish tied for second and another five figure win.
I guess the moral of the story is you don't always have to pick the winner to win big!
I have written a preview which you can read here
I really like the chances of Lowry and McDowell and have backed Hovland and Oppenheim in lots of different side markets and to trade on Betfair - maybe Hovland can emulate Michael Thompson with his amateur form although Thompson had turned pro by that point. Whatever happens I have a feeling it's going to be a cracker

april 22nd 11.07
A little look at the Irish Grand National
A few points to note – three of the last five winners were having their first run in a handicap, four of the last twelve winners had run in the National Hunt Chase @ Cheltenham. You have to go back to 1997 to find a winner aged older than ten. Horses at the lower end of the handicap do best – the last ten winners have been rated 139,153,137,136,142,128,135,132,131,136
The 153 was Our Duke and don't think there is something like him running this year
In the last 5 runnings  (looking at 6 place option) - only 6 runners rated 143+ finished in the top 6
This narrows down the field nicely for me and I like the look of Gun Digger running off 139 with just 10-3 on his back. He fell last time out in the NH Chase but was going as well as anything with a mile to go suggesting the trip shouldn’t be a problem. This is his first run in a handicap so he ticks both of those boxes.
Auvergnat – always happy to forgive one bad run, connections swerved the Grand National having been allocated a big weight compared to his Irish rating. He went for the Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham but didn’t run well – it was found he had a bad cut to his leg. A runaway winner of the Paddy Power Chase at Christmas on good ground now rated 143 but O’Connor takes off 5lb to effectively run off 138. She isn’t a bad booking and has won a Ladies National round Fairyhouse.
Bellow Mome runs off the minimum 10 stone having just got into the race following a 3rd place to Pairofbrowneyes in the Leinster National. That was its second run back after a near two year break and is still pretty unexposed over long trips.
A small mention for Forever Gold at a big price but probably too old to win it now at 12 but could easily run into a place. Has been campaigned over hurdles this year possibly to protect his handicap mark but was 3rd last year and other course/distance finishes are 2/1/2

april 8th 21.00
Before you read this article my take is based on personal observations, I do believe the FOBT restrictions were needed as this country does have a gambling problem but what has failed to be addressed is the nature of a State sponsored gambling problem.
When Camelot was awarded the National Lottery franchise 25 years ago I think they pulled the cleverest marketing ploy I have ever seen – they advertised the lottery saying people should use their birthdays to pick numbers and from day one people were hooked. I have seen people check the results having not entered that week just to check if their “numbers” had come up, and a lot of  people have entered the same numbers for the past 25 years “just in case”.
We have seen the once a week lottery grow to so many weekly draws I have really lost count and they sell it with advertising saying you could win £100 million etc – to me that is only adding to the gambling problem in this country – preying on the vulnerable by advertising the chance of life changing winnings.
We also must remember that we have instant gratification with Scratchcards – I have seen the number which are usually on sale on shops – around 20 – I have just seen on the website there are a staggering 72 available online. These cards vary in price from £1 to £10 – but what is the difference to paying £2 on a FOBT machine – surely the instant gratification with both should merit the same restriction of £2?
This little article was sparked by seeing someone just spend £50 on Lottery tickets and Scratchcards at my local shop in one transaction. The reason we probably don’t hear about it is that the government gains 12p in every £1 spent on these “products” – now if that isn’t State sponsored gambling I don’t know what is!
march 19th 16.12
Thought I would repost what I wrote about the Grand National six weeks ago, Noble Endeavor finally got it's second run of the year in the Ultima and was given a very quiet ride which should leave him spot on for Aintree. I have carried on backing him (well another £50 win 60 on Betfair) and have added one more below
"When watching the Becher Chase in December I was intrigued to see how Noble Endeavor fared after a 600 day absence, was never really put in the race and it reminded me so much of Tiger Roll on its first look at the Cross Country fences at Cheltenham before it one at the Festival. Noble Endeavor seemed to take quite well to the National fences and I think Elliott has that race mapped out for him. Why mention it now - well he runs in the Irish Gold Cup tomorrow and if he runs a decent race his odds will be cut for the Aintree showpiece.
In 2017 he was 6th in the Irish National - staying on over the 3m 5f trip and had been 3rd in the Ultima at the Festival. Prior to that at Chritmas 2016 he won the Paddy Power Handicap Chase easily enough, and earlier in March he was still travelling well in the NH Chase at the Festival before coming to grief two out - his only career fall. 
Last year he was given 10 13 for the National but missed out as he hadn't recovered from his injury. Elliott thinks a lot of the horse and even tomorrow says he should run well enough despite having a lot to do at the ratings and he has even given the horse a Cheltenham Gold Cup entry. 
He is chalked up @ 100/1 for tomorrows race which seems way too big and I have had a small bet because I think April at Aintree is the main aim - antepost I have had £75 ew 50/1 and a further £50 win 55. My dream could be all over this time tomorrow but if he runs OK I will keep backing him."
The other horse I like is Pairofbrowneyes who had to finish in the first four the other week in the Leinster National in order to qualify (have to finish top four in a three mile chase these days) Mullins thought it was a bit daft as won last years Leinster National at Gowran in the mud over 100 yards short of three miles and he described that as like running four miles. Anyway the horse actually won the race pretty easily and has gone up 9 lb in the ratings so is effectively 9 lb well in. They have the choice to go for the Irish National again where it was favourite last year but fell but it will have to race off its new weight. I can see them taking the Aintree option and Mullins seems to have got the horse sussed as a staying chaser as before he trained it it was campaigned over much shorter trips. Managed to get £25 ew 40/1 and £70 win 45/1 on Betfair - think it will go off shorter but they all have the mighty Tiger to beat and I haven't had a bean on him this year!
march 16th 11.47
Cheltenham didn't quite go according to plan - two main bets for me were Atlanta Ablaze fell with every chance in the National Hunt Chase and Roman Road led them a merry dance in the Foxhunters but didn't quite last out the final two furlongs eventually getting pipped for a place. It happens but we move on...and today it's the Midlands National @ Uttoxeter where I am interested in one at a big price - Dawson City though I may have a saver on old Raz if she drifts enough!
Dawson City is a regular contender and seems to be "saved" for these regional Nationals and the odd big staying race - his record over the last few years is as follows
2/14 Somerset National
2/14 Sussex National
PU/30 Scottish National (unsuitable good ground?)
3/9 Somerset National
1/11 Devon National
6/20 B365 Gold Cup
5/16 Scottish Borders National
7/20 Welsh National
1/15 Devon National
That's a pretty impressive and consistent run of form although he has to defy a record high rating today and he does often get tapped for toe but maybe they won't go hell for leather over an extended four miles in soft ground. Most books are around the 20/1 mark with 5 places but 7 places with Hills certainly makes huge appeal

february 18th 09.52
Cheltenham National Hunt Chase 5.30 Tuesday
A race that has been kind to me over the last couple of years with Tiger Roll winning in 2017 and Ms Parfois just getting touched off last year. Whilst I am not one to avidly stick to trends I use them as a guide to whittle down numbers and get to a shortlist and this has become quite a “trendy” race.
Rating – must have an official rating of at least 143
Experience – the last 4 winners have had 10.10,4 10 chase runs to their name
Age – 9 of the last 13 winners aged 7 or 8
It is interesting that the three favourites have limited experience over fences – OK Corral just two starts – won both but only three rivals in each and Henderson has never won this. Ballyward has also just the two chase runs under his belt with a first and second whilst Discorama has only had the three. To my mind with that lack of experience and having to jump 25 fences I would rather look further down the list.
The one that really catches my eye is Atlanta Ablaze – was told a few weeks back on Twitter it wouldn’t be running at Cheltenham but they seem to have had a change of heart. A bit like Ms Parfois last year she enters the fray having won two Listed mares chases and gets the valuable 7lb mares allowance. Over a distance of four miles that 7lb could prove invaluable and in effect puts her on a mark of 150 – and therefore the second highest rating in the field.
Atlanta Ablaze is aged 8 and has 10 chase runs to her name so fits the trends profile rather well and has won over 3 miles and 3 miles 1 furlong, whether she stays 4 miles we have to take on trust but the same can be said about most of the runners.
Connections have managed to secure the services of top point to point jockey William Biddick which is also a plus – over the last three years he has been 5th, 4th and then 2nd last year on Ms Parfois.
With question marks over the favourites I think she rates great value 20/1 EW NRNB and think she will go off a lot shorter.
Bet365 offer best place terms 1/4 3 rather than 1/5 3

february 18th 09.52
It may seem a bit bizarre but count this as a sort of resignation letter to myself – I will be giving up tipping on outright pre-tournament golf events from this week.
What I was once good at it seems I no longer am, things change – it happens, I now make my money from betting in running on the golf. To be honest I am bored with being sat here Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday scrabbling for prices that are sometimes impossible to get on – it’s a waste of my time and frankly yours too dear reader. I have also found it has been having a detrimental effect on my health and wellbeing, which is not good.
I find it impossible to tip in running as it is not fair on most people who won’t get on so I will limit myself to suggestions on Twitter, that will be it. If I do really fancy something pre-tournament then there may well be a blog post or two – probably Champions Tour, and only if I really fancy writing.
The blog will be more likely reserved for antepost bets of mine which could involve other things like National Hunt racing – we have Cheltenham and Aintree just round the corner for instance.
Anyway – thanks for listening to my drivel, I am sure there will be more in the future and keep an eye on Twitter for any random thoughts that maybe of interest to you.
All the best

february 14th 10.15
Lecom Suncaost Classic
Danny Walker
25 points ew 175/1
Apologies for being rather tardy with this rather short write up on the weeks only bet. It’s a new event and a new course and a time when I usually keep the powder dry but I had to throw one player into the mix which clearly caused a little controversy on Twitter. The course at Lakeland Ranch is next to where Walker grew up and played throughout High School – the question is how much weight to give that factor. If a player is simply affiliated to a club I give it no weight at all but when we are using a course for the first time then there has to be some advantage. The unknown fact is whether or not the player actually likes the course and whether he can play it under tournament conditions and how he can deal with the pressure of playing at home.
One thing I know is that Walker is probably capable of winning at this level, in his first season on a pro tour in Canada last year he won the final event of the season which got him a free pass into the Q School which he went on to win. It’s been an indifferent start to his career however – missing his last three cuts but maybe he just hasn’t adjusted to the travel involved and anyways his win in Canada came on the back of two missed cuts. I guess time will tell very quickly!

february 13th 14.16
Genesis Open
It really is a top quality field – probably the best of the year so far and to be honest I can’t see the winner coming from out of the top dozen in the field. The event is usually won by a player out of the top drawer with great Major credentials and if I had to pick one who even at just 25/1 may present a touch of value it would have to be Xander Schauffele. If you look at his form he is a peak performer in big events despite a short career, 1st in a Tour Championship and Tournament of Champions, 1st in the WGC HSBC Championship, 2nd in last years Open and a 5th and 6th in the US Open is a pretty impressive CV. He is a player who seems to also improve his performance at courses he has played before take this year so far
T of C 22/1
Torrey Pines c/c/c/25
Scottsdale 17/10
So turning up to a course he was 9th on his debut last year improving with every round you’d have to give him a squeak. But as I said there isn’t a lot of value in the price though he is my idea of the winner. Instead I will just have one First Round Leader bet

Sam Saunders
15 points ew 150/1

There’s no great rocket science behind the bet just the fact that he has teed it up just twice here – in 2017 he opened with a 64 to take a two shot lead and last year a 67 saw him lie tied 3rd one shot back. Enthusiasm is slightly tempered by a late tee time although he is out in the second group of the afternoon wave and pretty poor weather is forecast all day
february 13th 12.26
Dimension Data Pro Am
Thriston Lawrence
30 points ew 100/1 (80/1 fine)
Lawrence has always been hailed as a great South African prospect who maybe turned pro too early at the age of 19 in 2015 but now finally seems to be fulfilling his potential. He won the Lytham Trophy in 2014 and a whole host of amateur events at home in South Africa and on turning pro played on the Mena Tour winning the Order of Merit in 2015. But things rather stagnated from there. At the end of last year he finally won on the Big Easy tour and whilst he missed the cut in the two co-sanctioned events before Christmas he has come into his own this year. He warmed up at the end of January with a play off loss on the IGT tour and then finished 4th and 8th is the PGA Championship and Cape Town Open – both events he had played poorly in before. Whether this is his week I have to take a chance – two previous missed cuts in the event don’t bode well but he is in much better form this time around and will have some good memories of the course where he won an amateur event back in 2013

february 13th 11.59
ISPS Handa World Super 6

An event I am really struggling to get a handle on – is it best to play in the 54 hole strokeplay event or to win overall when it goes into a matchplay situation on the last day? The fact that it is played mainly overnight for me means I have decided to more or less sit it out. The two young Scots Forrest and Johnston interest me as they finished 1st and 2nd in the Challenge Tour event last year that follows a similar formula only with a 36 hole strokeplay format and I can see them being inspired by Laws’ victory last week. Forrest has the advantage of making the playoffs here last year but has a late tee time when the wind may get up but I find it odd that I can back him 180 on Betfair for the 54 hole portion when he is half that price to win overall! So no official tips on the outright but the one I really fancy for First Round Leader is
James Nitties
20 points ew 150/1

Nitties made headlines last week by making nine birdies in a row and equalling the world record in competition. That meant he led after round one on his course rotation although Flannagan who is his room mate and long time buddy managed to shoot ten under on the other course. In round one in Perth the two friends are paired together out early which could inspire more fireworks. I have sided with Nitties who says this is his favourite event of the year – he lost in the final last year and was 2nd after round one and if you go back to 2013 when it was a 72 hole event he co-led on day one

february 6th 21.41
Panama Championship
Ryan Yip

25 points ew 80/1 (66/1 fine)
Must admit I have wanted to tip Yip for many years – what a great name for a golfer – yet this is probably the first time I think he actually warrants a bet. He certainly hasn’t been a big achiever on tour with a win in Canada 10 years ago the only one to his name but he’s in good form this season with an 11th in the second Bahamas event followed by an 8th in Colombia. Last year he went 10th in the Bahamas followed by 5th here in Panama. The Bogota event came after Panama last year and he missed the cut – that was the second year in a row he had missed the cut in Bogota so the 8th was a huge improvement

Brett Coletta
20 points ew 125/1 (100/110 fine) I used Mustardbet 150/25
Coletta was one of those players I noted who was the wrong side of the cut in the Bahamas a couple weeks back though I admit that line backfired last week. He didn’t take the flight to Colombia so maybe a bit fresher than some others this week. If you really want a long read about his career so far then this is well worth a look and it’s something that made me think of his suitability to the Panama course this week. Basically he says he is suited to tougher courses rather than the birdie fests and this weeks event is just about the toughest test on the tour.

february 6th 17.32
Oasis Championship

Quite a few debutants tee it up in Florida this week and I have tipped two of them – it would have been three but the 33/1 on Goosen disappeared rather rapidly when Skybet chalked up 11/1!! I have tended to find that the less well known players do best when starting out on this tour – Rocco Mediate did win this event on his tour debut in 2013 at around the 50/1 mark so we have a precedent.

Paul Broadhurst
30 points ew 70/1 (66/1 fine)
Not a debutant but a player who seems to be constantly underestimated on this tour – it’s just a case of catching him right. He won on his European Senior debut in 2015 on the links in Scotland and the following year won the Senior British Open at Carnoustie before claiming his first Champions Tour event @ Pebble Beach. In 2017 he drew a blank on this tour but won twice in Europe whilst last year he captured two Champions Tour events including a Major. He does seem best on “linksy” style courses but he has been 10th and 4th here in two starts so clearly likes the venue.

Ken Duke
25 points ew 70/1
The first debutant in the staking plan – have always thought Duke was a late developer who didn’t win on the PGA tour til he was 44 and was 3rd at Sawgrass when he was 47 so seems the type of player who could thrive on the Champions Tour. He is from Florida so should be well suited to the conditions – will have to take on trust that the course suits him.

Cliff Kresge
20 points ew 150/1
Debutant number two and certainly not in the same league as Goosen or Duke as he was without a win on the PGA tour, however he does have three wins under his belt. He was brought up in Florida and his best ever finish on the PGA tour came when 3rd @ Bay Hill, he was 2nd at the Q School to get his card – also held in Florida

Ken Tanigawa
10 points ew 125/1 (100/1 fine)
I will have a small bet on last seasons rookie of the year which he gained via a win and a 3rd. This was the scene of his Champions tour debut when he finished a highly creditable 10th so with positive memories he is worth a small investment at a three figure price

february 6th 11.43
Victoria Open
Matthew Millar

25 points win 70/1
40 points top 5 11/1 (10/1 fine - some books now top 5 & ties - well worth it!)
20 points top 5 13/1
To say Matthew Millar is not a prolific winner considering how often he gets into contention would be an understatement – in fact it took him 15 years to record his first victory in a mainstream event and another three years to add his second, both victories coming early in the year in New Zealand.
He is very comfortable at home in Australia and if you look at his 52 starts on the Australasian Tour since 2015 he boasts a staggering 35% top 5 strike rate and 54% top 10!!
Admittedly a lot of those high finishes came in run of the mill tour events with no International players but before Christmas he was 5th and 3rd in the two flagship events the Open and PGA tournaments.
He has an unusual record in the Victorian Open played on the 13th Beach courses – 6th and 2nd and three missed cuts though I may forgive him the last one as it was the event after he secured his second pro win.
His price has drifted on Betfair on the place side and I have just added another 20 points @ 13/1, it may also be worth looking at his 25/1 price for top Australian – though don’t use Ladbrokes/Coral as remarkably they have Ryan Fox as a dual national quoting him in both the top Australian and top New Zealand market!!!

february 4th 17.47
AT&T Pebble Beach pro-am
Kevin Kisner

30 points ew 80/1 1/5 7 - get as many places as possible
First rule of betting in this pro-am is stick to the Americans – played since 1947 focused around Pebble Beach and surrounding courses there have only been three international winners in 65, 93 and 04. Despite the fact there have been many multiple winners a previous high finish here has not been imperative and we have had numerous big price winners including a few unfathomable ones.
I have had a couple of winners here in the shape of Oberholser and a big win on Points in 2011 @ 100/1. Points had missed three cuts and had a 14th to his name but had good form in the Pebble Beach Invitational played in November each year, but he was playing the year he won with his comic idol Bill Murray which relaxed him – it wouldn’t most people!!
Kisner is a bit like Points – 39th on his debut but four missed cuts and a 10th in 2017 but he did win the PBI in 2013 – an event normally assigned to those on the Champions Tour these days.
In theory the courses should suit when you look at some of his best venues
Sea Island 26/c/20/4/1/c/4/7
Harbour Town c/38/2/69/11/7
Plus he has had a couple of top 5’s in the Sony Open, add in the fact that books seem to have forgotten he was 2nd at Carnoustie last year and he seems a decent price.
I guess that boils down to current form – a slow start to the year – 69/57/26 but he’s on an upward trajectory and the 26th in Phoenix was his best ever showing there.
With some iffy weather forecast and not knowing how that will affect the course rotation I will leave it at that before the off.
february 2nd 17.47
When watching the Becher Chase in December I was intrigued to see how Noble Endeavor fared after a 600 day absence, was never really put in the race and it reminded me so much of Tiger Roll on its first look at the Cross Country fences at Cheltenham before it one at the Festival. Noble Endeavor seemed to take quite well to the National fences and I think Elliott has that race mapped out for him. Why mention it now - well he runs in the Irish Gold Cup tomorrow and if he runs a decent race his odds will be cut for the Aintree showpiece.
In 2017 he was 6th in the Irish National - staying on over the 3m 5f trip and had been 3rd in the Ultima at the Festival. Prior to that at Chritmas 2016 he won the Paddy Power Handicap Chase easily enough, and earlier in March he was still travelling well in the NH Chase at the Festival before coming to grief two out - his only career fall.
Last year he was given 10 13 for the National but missed out as he hadn't recovered from his injury. Elliott thinks a lot of the horse and even tomorrow says he should run well enough despite having a lot to do at the ratings and he has even given the horse a Cheltenham Gold Cup entry.
He is chalked up @ 100/1 for tomorrows race which seems way too big and I have had a small bet because I think April at Aintree is the main aim - antepost I have had £75 ew 50/1 and a further £50 win 55. My dream could be all over this time tomorrow but if he runs OK I will keep backing him.

january 30th 12.27
Bogota Championship

A couple of things to note – they are using a new course over the first two days with split fields so that dilutes course form a little but past course form has never really been a pre-requisite here before as winners have little common traits. In the early days it favoured the wily old pro’s but it seems more random these days with winners never having won on this tour before. I noted in the last event in the Bahamas those out early/late were at a massive disadvantage – maybe as much as 3-4 shots so current form may be a little skewed.

Harry Higgs
40 points ew 40/1
Higgs is best mates with Dechambeau but obviously isn’t in the same league but he clearly has potential judging on him leading the Latino Tour money list last year. To be fair he only just go there – he birdied the last hole in the last event and won by $64! That runoff 10/1/2/3/4 obviously piqued my interest this week as the first four events in that run came in South America and mainly at altitude. He threw away the chance to win in Chile but bounced straight back with the win with Dechambeau constantly texting him encouragement. He was one of the players who fell foul of a poor draw in the Bahamas so 17th wasn’t bad – if he can build on that and take further encouragement from his friends achievements then a win on this tour is highly likely.

Steven Alker
40 points ew 40/1
The veteran Kiwi also was one out early and joined Higgs in 17th – add that to his 4th the week before and he is clearly in good heart at the start of the year. His last two starts here have yielded finishes of 6th and 29th and he has won @ altitude in Utah before

Roberto Diaz
40 points ew 50/1
Now we come to a man who drops down to this Tour after a poor start for him having regained his PGA tour card for the year at the finals. A pick solely on the back of some very impressive course form 6/7/2 and he was unlucky not to win in 2017 when Tracy holed out for eagle on the 72nd hole and then beat Diaz in the playoff!! Yet to win on this tour he could take inspiration from Campos – same age/region of origin who finally came good in the Bahamas

Wade Binfield
15 pts ew 125/1
Just a small token bet on the man who faired best of all when 9th in the Bahamas from that poor draw. He had a lot of pressure on him with no status on tour and playing on a sponsors invite so he handled it well and is given another crack at things this week. He hasn’t achieved a great deal in his career to date and now aged 32 he won’t maybe get a lot more opportunities – he has to make this week count.

january 30th 11.17
Phoenix Open

Daniel Berger
40 points ew 66/1
Another one of those glad we got in early as odds have been trimmed a lot – for anyone who reads this and misses prices – bets are always posted on Twitter first!
Berger took a really long break over the autumn/winter after a rather indifferent season but returned to action with a 12th place in the Desert Classic – not bad after four and a half months off. He missed the cut last week @ Torrey Pines but that doesn’t concern me too much as he now returns to putting on overseeded Bermuda where he has great form especially in this event. He first appeared here in 2015 on a sponsors exemption and finished 10th, he showed that was no fluke when 7th and 11th the last two years. The whole event is a bit like a circus and you need a player who enjoys it and Berger ticks that box saying he will come back every year. With one of the lowest course scoring averages on show if he can put four rounds together he will be bang in contention come Sunday.

Talor Gooch
25 points ew 100/1 1/5 7 or 8 if you can
15 points ew 66/1 top American (takes out Rahm and Matsuyama)
Not that long ago I put up Gooch for the Sony at 1000/1 – after he had shot low in the Monday Qualifier – well he won’t have to Monday qualify again for a while! He missed the cut sadly at the Sony – found out he played the wrong ball and got a two shot penalty but that seems to have spurred him on. A 4th in the Desert Classic and 3rd last week means he won’t lack from tournament starts having started the season with conditional status. He proved in 2017 on the tour he can keep a hot streak going when he went 11/10/2/1  and on the Canadian Tour in 2015 rode a streak of 11/6/4/27/3 so I don’t see why he can’t carry on this week. The downside is it’s his course debut but I know he spent a few weeks in Scottsdale over the winter to put in some practice.
I was lucky enough to nab the 250/500 when he was originally added on Betfair but 100/1 more than fair and I added the top American bet as Rahm and Matsuyama have to be feared

january 23rd 14.34
Dubai Desert Classic

Jordan Smith
40 points ew 66/1 1/5 6
Well Smith has been hammered in price so glad I went up early with the 66/1 which was freely available on Monday. A lot has been written about him but my main reasons for backing him this week are as follows. His desert golf credentials are actually pretty good, in 2016 on the Challenge Tour he actually won twice – firstly in Egypt on a water strewn desert course and then at Al Hamra in the UAE. In his first season on tour he went 39/6/23 with the latter finish here but we can write off last years desert swing when he was suffering from glandular fever. There was further evidence in the DP World Tour Championship in November where he was one shot behind going into the final round before a poor finish dropped him to 12th. After getting engaged in December he spent a lot of time in Dubai during the break honing his game and played well for 11th last week in Abu Dhabi after a slow start.

Jason Scrivener
20 points ew 66/1 First Round Leader
A man whose price outright always seems a bit low as he only has one professional win in a poor quality field at home in Australia to his name. He is definitely a horses for courses player and was 6th here in his second attempt last year. One thing I have noticed is that he is often a very fast starter to events – in his last six events last year he was t1st,3rd, 5th and 5th after the opening days play. He was solid last week in Abu Dhabi in 16th which included a second round 65 the lowest on the day

Thomas Aiken
10 points top 5 66/1 Mustardbet (50/1 fine)
30 points top 10 28/1 Betfair, 25/1 Mustardbet
I have added Aiken as a play in the place markets though I wouldn’t put you off a small bet @ 680 on the exchange for the win. He does struggle to get over the line but he has a very good top 5/10 strike rate of 10% and 16% in European Tour events down the years. Best results last year were 2nd Nordea Masters, 3rd South African Open and 10th in the higher class Turkish Airlines. As he has a brace of top ten finishes here on the Emirates course the price just seems too big to me.

january 23rd 11.46
Farmers Insurance

Harris English
20 points ew 125/1 1/5 7
I think I am safe in saying that Harris English really hasn’t kicked on his career as many had expected – a 1st, 2nd and 3rd on the tour in just seven starts in 2011 led to a place on the PGA tour where he won twice in his second year – 2013. Quite simply it just hasn’t panned out as expected however there is one venue he has always performed well and that’s here at Torrey Pines even if he enters in poor form. Since those early wins he has finished 2/31/14/8 and after a couple of cuts made to start the season he could be ready to perform well again @ a course he likes. He maybe also be worth siding with in the top US market as this takes out the likes of Rahm, Rory, Day, Rose, Leishman and Noren who are all at the top of the betting

CT Pan
40 points win 150/1 Betfair
30 points top 5 20/1
The hugely talented young Taiwanese player will win on the PGA tour – it’s just a matter of time in my opinion, and for one so young he is incredibly consistent. If that first win were to come here it would come as no surprise. On his debut in 2017 he fought all the way to the line eventually settling for 2nd. Last year he finished 35th but was sitting in 5th with a round to go – I am happy to forgive a round of 79 around the South course as all his others have been good. A finish of 50th last week may not look that impressive but in each of the last two years he had missed the cut before playing well here. I will admit that some of the 150/1 will be used for hedging if he gets close as he is still yet to close the deal

Michael Thompson
40 points win 350 Betfair (nearly that Mustard)
15 points top 5 40/1
20 points top 10 20/1
15 points ew top US 100/1 (1/4 5 BF/PP) 110 B365, 125 Blacktype
I gave up backing Thompson a while back as like English he really hasn’t kicked on as expected. In three of the last four years he has had to go to the playoffs to regain his playing privileges on the main tour but the fact that he has achieved it each time shows he is a gritty player. His form around Torrey Pines is pretty indifferent with five of seven cuts made and best finishes of 11th and 14th but the place holds fond memories for him as he was low amateur way back in 2008 at the US Open. I have always thought a tough test suits him when his game is on – 2nd at the US Open @ Merion in 2012 proves that and his one PGA tour win came at the tough PGA National. Why should he contend this week? Well the 9th last week (poor final round) was his best finish in a while and he was 5th in the all round stats which means his whole game is in decent nick which he will need this week.

january 19th 17.55 Bahamas Great Abaco Classic

Ben Taylor
20 points ew 150/1
(125/1 fine)
The young Englishman won on Tour early last year in Colombia but then didn’t really perform very well for the rest of the year but judging from his effort last week in the Bahamas then maybe he still has a lot to offer. In 2017/2018 he missed the cut both times @ Emerald Bay with rounds of 85/81/69/77 – admittedly it played easier last week but with all rounds at par or better he finished 20th. His form in the last two years here has been much better going 27/19 and last year he fired a 65 and a 66 and then won a few weeks later. It is worth noting the year before his win in Bogota he fired a closing round of 65 and there seems to be a pattern emerging with his form of finishing higher each time he plays a course again.

Kevin Dougherty
20 points ew 100/1
(80/1 fine) 100 available Betfair/Paddy Power not showing on Oddschecker
I am going to take a chance on Dougherty this week despite a slight reservation about him not teeing it up in the first event last week. He had a solid first season on tour with a 2nd, 4th, 6th,6th and 7th and came agonisingly close to gaining a berth on the PGA Tour when he needed birdie on the final hole of the final regular season event to clinch 25th spot – his chip came up one inch short! The 4th place mentioned above came here so he can definitely play the course so a three figure price is too big to resist.

january 16th 12.20
Singapore Open

A co-sanctioned Asian/Japanese Tour event which has up for offer four places in the Open for any player finishing in the top 12 not already exempt. It has attracted a few star names as normal with Garcia, Casey and Fitzpatrick teeing it up and to be honest I couldn’t put you off any of them but it does mean we get some interesting e/w prices further down the field.
Tirawat  Kaewsiribandit
20 points ew 225/1 – 1/5 6 Betfair or Paddy, ¼ 5 Bet365

William Hill were 250/1 but strangely have taken the market down, if you have a Unibet/888 account then you can avail yourselves of a staggering 500/1 but I would feel a bit of a fraud proofing at that price!
The 29 year old Thai has played here in each of the last two years finishing 11th and 27th but the results need further inspection.
In 2017 he only got into the field on the actual day as he was an alternate so didn’t have a lot of time to prepare. He improved through each of the first three rounds 70/69/66 and was tied 2nd one shot behind before struggling on the final day dropping down to 11th. He used that experience to good effect capturing his maiden ADT title later that year.
Last year he did the opposite, only getting in the field after finishing 7th at Q School he opened with a 66 to co-lead and was 3rd at the cut one shot behind and then faded to 27th. Again he put that experience to good use – finally capturing his maiden Asian Tour title in October and winning the following week in a minor event at home in Thailand.
As a winner now on the Asian Tour he could use the experience gained on this course to finally put all four rounds together, it’s just a shame no book quotes without the big three. I couldn’t put anyone off a FRL bet if you can get on with one of the few books up and I just spotted Mustardbet are now up @ 500/1 win only – max stake £1  - but I had it ten times!!

january 15th 17.10
The European Tour returns this week with the Abu Dhabi Championship which has been upgraded to a Rolex Series event and hence attracted a very strong field – my brief thoughts on my three picks – don’t forget it starts in a little over ten hours

Joost Luiten
30 points ew 80/1 1/5 6
On scrolling through the prices the first player I stopped at was Luiten – he is usually a lot shorter on tracks he has a good record on. Abu Dhabi is one of them having finished 6/6/5 in his seven starts – hence why I wanted the six place option! His wrist injury last year is well documented and he played consistently well when he returned in the Autumn and will be champing at the bit to get going this year. He is already a six time winner on tour with his last victory coming just over a year ago in the desert in Oman

Marcus Kinhult
30 points ew top Continental Euro 40/1 (33/1 OK)
40 points win 170+ Betfair

The young Swede had a great year in his first full season on tour not missing a cut after July and bagging three top 5 finishes. The first of those came at Doha when 3rd in Qatar a desert course also designed by Harradine, in 2016 he was also 4th on the Challenge Tour at the Harradine designed Al Hamra course. He was then 5th at Le Golf National in a top class field trading at odds on at one point – it is worth noting that Fleetwood, Kaymer and Larrazabal have both won there and here. His final top finish came in Portugal where he touched 9/2 in running before finishing 4th. My problem is that he has yet to secure a win at any level hence playing him in the market I have and also hopefully trading in running

Robert Macintyre
40 points top 20 – I took 12/1 ties included with Betfred 14/1 available
10 points ew FRL 200/1

Final pick is left field and in a top heavy market a top 20 finish seems the best way to go – admittedly I have backed him @ 1000 on Betfair and the Sportsbook there are a very generous 450/1 ew without the top 5 if you can get on. He graduated from the Challenge Tour and his start hasn’t gone unnoticed – he was 12th heading into the final round on his first start in Hong Kong and was 15th in both his starts in South Africa. He is a big talent who reached number 6 in the World amateur rankings and is possibly best known for whooping Cameron Champ in the Walker Cup singles – not a bad effort!
I like him this week as he has shown an affinity for golf in the desert – first two pro starts last year on the lowly Mena Tour saw him finish 3rd and 1st in Jordan and Kuwait and he was also 6th @ Al Hamra which I have mentioned above.

january 15th 13.01
Last week was frustrating as Howell finished a shot out the places (yet again shows how important getting extra places is) and am still kicking myself – if I backed Howell should have backed Kuchar but not point dwelling on it. Potter traded below 30 – not bad for a 300 shot but two poor putting holes cost him a place – a 3 putt from 6 feet for double and a four putt from 13 feet for triple!
I am still waiting to bet on one more player in Abu Dhabi so will write up my thoughts on Desert Classic first as Landry will be my only bet.
Andrew Landry
30 points ew 100/1 1/5 7 or 8 if possible

When prices first came out I thought 66/1 was about right – 125/1 seemed crazy and 100/1 more than fair. The price is obviously based on an average start in Maui and a missed cut at the Sony but as far as I am concerned he needed those starts as he has done in previous seasons
2015 – – 34/mc then won third start Colombia
2016 – first try on PGA tour – poor
2017 – – mc then won second start Bahamas
2018 – PGA – mc then 2nd here – lost to Rahm in playoff – hit ½ in running during that playoff
It took him a while to shake off that playoff loss missing his next four cuts before coming good and winning his first PGA tour event in Texas.
He likes the courses on show here – surprised to hear him say last year La Quinta was his favourite course on tour – each to their own!
Personally I think he’s a cracking price this week

january 12th 13.26
With a bit of luck Ted Potter can keep his good run going at the Sony Open over the next few days – as I said in my review I said I was going to lay some of Betfair stakes back earlier and not wait for the big win (2018 review). As I alluded to in this weeks preview I had placed a lot more on him than the staking so did give some back @ 30 last night which I didn’t think I would be able to after a three putt double bogey from six feet on the first! Live golf continues every day through January with the scheduling meaning we start the new year in the Bahamas tomorrow and again next week. My initial thoughts were to back Gellerman – he did us a favour in the Q School when 3rd but he was 150/1 that week and in a full field this week he is 66/1 though if you have a Mustardbet account he is 100/1+. His best finish on this tour is 8th which was here in 2017 but he is still winless on any main pro tour so he would have to be 100/1 to warrant a bet in my eyes. Instead I will go for a player who has the best course form in this weeks field and who is a decent price
Dan McCarthy
30 points ew 80/1
He was 4th on his debut here in 2017 in a wind ravaged event but shortly afterwards injured his wrist and was out for five months and never really regained his form. Last year he again showed a liking for the course – leading at the cut but one poor round led him to finishing 21st – I am always willing to forgive one poor round out of eight. In his second full season on this tour in 2018 he had a 5th and two 6th placed finishes and I think he will kick on this year. It took him a few years to click on the Canadian Tour but in 2016 he won no less than four times to prove he has the talent to win at this level.

january 9th 11.51
I should start by saying apologies for the number of picks and the essay that is about to follow but this is an event that has been good to me in the past with two 100/1 + winners and last year I backed Hahn 250/1 who eventually lost after a six hole playoff, it therefore makes sense to have a crack at the books! There is a very clear pattern emerging about recent winners which I am sure you have all read – 14 of the last 20 winners had dusted off their clubs at Maui the week before – on closer inspection 7 of the last 8 had and there could well be an explanation for the one that didn’t. In 2013 Henley won but those who were in Hawaii the week before struggled as they had to play 36 holes on the Monday and then 18 on the Tuesday before flying on to this weeks venue and most of them had to play the pro-am on the Wednesday! Henley became the first debutant to win as well which broke the mould – whilst a top finish isn’t important course experience is as it’s a strategic layout. You also need to look for a player who already has a PGA tour victory to his name – it’s not a good place for first time winners.
Charles Howell
25 points ew 40/1 1/5 7

First on the list this week had to be Howell at a price bigger than I expected and he has duly been hammered though I wouldn’t be in a hurry to take the 28/1 now. He finally broke through again at Sea Island for his third PGA tour win in November after a very long wait and it is here where he has come so close in the past to winning. His history here at Waialae is well documented with no fewer than seven top five finishes and having shaken off the rust last week improving as the week went on he stakes a very obvious claim this week.
Scott Piercy
40 points ew 50/1 1/7

Second man in is Piercy who like Howell improved as the rounds progressed in Maui last week. He finally returned to the winners enclosure last year in the pairs event alongside Horschell in Louisiana but didn’t find much form until the Fall going 5/10/6 in his last three events. Maybe turning 40 in November was the seed to that upturn in form. He loves it here at Waialae and has gone on record as saying it’s his favourite event of the year though he has only once had a really top finish when runner-up in 2015. He has shot some really low rounds on other occasions including in 2013 when he opened 64/64 but ran out of steam – as alluded to above he had to play 36 Monday then 18 Tuesday before a 7.13 am pro-am on the Wednesday
Brice Garnett
30 points ew 125/1 1/5 7 places

I guess this one needs a bit more explaining with course form of 38/c/c but that hasn’t stopped past winners and now he has a PGA tour victory under his belt I think he should go well on a course that should suit. Until his victory in the Dominican Republic (on a coastal seaside track) his best form at this level had been on another similar track with great course correlation to this weeks venue – Mayakoba. He had been 6th and 7th there before and added a 5th back in the Fall. He started slowly last week but a bogey free five under final round in calmer conditions means he faces this weeks course without the rust of past years. If you can bet with Betfair Sportsbook the 110/1 without the five favourites is well worth a look
Ted Potter
30 points win 300/1
20 points top 5 40/1

Now the totally left field pick – I know it seems odd to have more on the win than the place but Potter only has two top five finishes on the PGA tour and both of those were wins! I must admit I have had a lot more on the win price than I have stated above. Again he is a player whose course form does not inspire confidence but is amazingly similar to Johnson Wagner – he went 34/c/c/c before his victory and hasn’t made the weekend since! The similarities don’t end there – Wagner had two PGA tour victories and warmed up in Maui, Potter also has a brace of victories and has form here that reads 13/c/c/c. That 13th place finish was on his PGA tour debut and I have known quite a few players come back and record victories on a course they first debuted on. Now this is where it gets interesting – at least in my mind! This weeks course designer is Seth Raynor – he is also responsible for two other courses used on tour – The Old White where Potter earned his first victory (has also been 6th on his defence) and Monterrey used in the AT&T rotation. Potter won that event last year mainly due to a third round nine under par 62 – and guess which course he fired that on – yup you guessed it Monterrey!
Pat Perez
40 points win 100/1
40 points top 5 16/1

The generally available 66/1 about Perez did not inspire me but a three figure price whetted my appetite enough to have a decent bet. He didn’t win last year so hasn’t had the necessary warm up but in each of the last two years he has come out guns blazing in Hawaii in the Tournament of Champions finishing 3rd and 4th so contention rust doesn’t seem to worry him. Both those appearances came courtesy of late season wins – notably at Mayakoba in 2016 and he won’t be the first to win there and here. He didn’t do a lot for the rest of last year but again had a strong finish to his year with 7th and then 6th again at Mayakoba. He has plenty of decent finishes here – best being 4/8/9/10 and am surprised he is such a big price.
Talor Gooch
10 points ew FRL 150/1 – 125/1 fine

Last bet of the week is a little frustrating as not all books price him up as he got in the field via the Monday qualifier. He was co-medalist firing eight birdies and two bogeys for -6. He clearly likes Hawaii in January as last year he teed it up here opening 64/66 to sit 3rd after round one and 2nd at the cut before fading to 18th over the weekend. I have had a small investment at the maximum 1000 on Betfair and I do like the top 20 price on there of 25/1 (bookie best is 10/1) – in 29 events in his rookie year he posted four top 20 finishes – the odds are too high.
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january 6th 13.36
I started writing this article back in December after the golf had finished but realised I needed a complete break – eleven months, seven days a week with only two one week breaks sat by a pool in Greece had taken its toll – my brain was cooked. I noticed this as I made a few errors in the last month – two mistakes in my write-ups and one omission. I had written down that Gellerman had got engaged the weekend prior to the Q School but forgot about it and didn’t factor it into my staking!
So after a nice relaxing break it’s time to look back – where did it go wrong? My eighteenth year of betting on golf (not as a hobby) and only the second year I had recorded a loss – the tips don’t tell the whole story but 13570 points staked for a loss of 2590 does not make good reading. The tips don’t tell the whole story as I bet on Betfair and trade but even that wasn’t great apart from backing Hahn at the Sony Open @ 250 (hit ¼ in the playoff) and McEvoy when he won @ around the 180 mark. I even layed far too much of that back – it’s what you do when confidence is low. To sum it up I didn’t back enough winners – well hardly any to be frank – and the places got diluted by lots of ties, plus lots of 6ths and 7ths when extra places were available but unattainable by me at certain books. I have learnt that with so many ties possible First Round Leader bets should only be struck on players who are 100/1 or bigger.
The Champions Tour again was a happy hunting ground with a modest 1395 points staked returning a profit of 3585. It makes sense as apart from Senior Major weeks there are only roughly 90 players and you can rule out over half yet we still get paid five places. Therefore I will look to increase stakes on that tour this year.
Do I want to change much? Not really – apart from the two things I have mentioned on FRL and the Champions Tour, maybe take out stakes on my Betfair bets at a more realistic price too rather than trying harder to cop the big payout. It is a marathon not a sprint and backing at big odds there will be gaps between decent returns .
My saving grace last year was National Hunt racing – starting off with Raz de Maree winning the Welsh National @ 25/1 though a bit of that went west in the Grand National. Yet again it was all about Tiger Roll (the horse has won me well into five figures over the last few years) – having seen him in December in a handicap over the Cross Country course it was obvious to me that Elliott had in mind a third win at the Cheltenham Festival and I backed it consistently for the next three months from 25/1 down to 8/1 and he won with considerable ease. I re-invested some in the Grand National where I did honestly have doubts of it winning in handicap company as it always seems best off level weights. As for this year no doubt Tiger Roll will go again for the Cross Country chase though I wish it would be given a crack at the big one – the Gold Cup, as it is versatile where trip is concerned and loves Cheltenham in March (have had a little bet for that @ 100/1 just in case). I think it will be crucified when the weights come out for the Grand National and being a small horse I doubt it can back up last years win. I think I have already seen my horse for the Aintree race and have started backing it accordingly though I want to se it run again first before releasing it on here.

january 4th 12.50
Sentry Tournament of Champions in running play
Andrew Landry
15 points win 200/1
25 points top 5 16/1
Both with Mustardbet
I had toyed with the idea of Landry before the start as an outsider who may go well but wanted to see how he performed at the start before getting involved due to the usual poor performance of debutants. He did pretty well in round one as he played well to recover from being +2 through 5 to add 7 birdies (and another bogey) to eventually finish day one in a tie for 6th on -4.
The reason for my original interest was because of where he has won his pro events - last year to get his invite here he won in his home state of Texas so he is used to playing in the wind and it was certainly windy in San Antonio last year. Add to that his two wins on the both came on breezy coastal courses - the Abaco Resort in the Bahamas and Cartagena in Colombia.
Admittedly a win maybe a bit of a struggle but he should be a much lower price for the outright - most books are 66-100 although those with a Unibet account could avail themselves of 150/1 e/w though that only gives you four places

december 31st 13.56
First of all I hope you all had a good Festive season and here’s to a profitable 2019.
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Sentry Tournament of Champions
Marc Leishman
50 points ew 33/1 1/5 4 – 28/1 fine

I will start with the fact that some course experience is very important here – Chopra was the last player to win on his debut (2008) and Garcia was the only other debutant to win.
Thomas, Spieth and Reed all won on their second starts whilst the four winners before them were winning on their 7th,4th, 5th and 4th starts.
Leishman reminds me a bit of Ogilvy and Appleby  - Australians who were in their 30’s and won five between them from 2004 to 2010 and interestingly they won their first titles on their third appearance.
This is Leishmans third start – forget his 2013 performance as he had food poisoning (he even threw up three times on his first five holes) and concentrate on last years performance. He held the lead after round one and tied for the lead at the halfway stage before a very poor third round, bouncing back to finish 7th. I am willing to forgive him one poor round and last year he was generally a 20-25/1 shot and traded as low as 11/4 – I don’t see why he should be a bigger price this year.
Last year he had won in September in the BMW Championship, finished 2nd in South Korea and then 4th a month before in the Australian PGA. He has been in just as good form at the end of 2018 with a win in Malaysia and 2nd at home in the Australian PGA.
That win in the BMW Championship was in a no cut event (69 players) and he has now won three no cut events – including the Nedbank (30) and the CIMB Classic (78) – but it was the manner of those wins that was also noteworthy – five, six and five shots.
You need to go low at Plantation (although it is due to be windy the first two days) and his last two wins have been -23 and -26 respectively so if fit and ready he should go well.

december 12th 11.32
Alfred Dunhill Championship
Liam Johnston

Final write-up of the year and I am certainly ready for the break after a poor second half to 2018 – so maybe I can go out on a big hurrah!
I am guilty as charged for putting all my eggs in one basket for this event (or rather one big egg divided up into smaller baskets) though there is every possibility I will end up with egg on my face – that happens when you back 500/1 shots.

So where do I begin with the young Scotsman – well he turned pro ready for the 2018 season having had a fairly decent amateur career – reaching the top 50 in the World after his biggest achievement in March 2017 – winning the African Amateur – here at Leopard Creek. He seems to have forged a mentoring friendship with this weeks host Johann Rupert – hence the invites to the Alfred Dunhill Links event and he should feel comfortable in familiar surroundings.
He began 2018 with no status with an aim of making the European Tour in three years – he made it in nine months!
Starting off in the Pro-Golf tour he won on his fourth start in Morocco, he then got some invites to play on the Challenge Tour – he won the Costa del Sol matchplay on his third start, adding to that tally and securing his card in September with a win in the high profile Kazakhstan Open. Maybe it’s an omen that he makes his fourth start as a European Tour member on a course that holds such fond memories?
I am not too worried about his 72/mc/mc start to the campaign as he had gone mc/mc before winning in Morocco, had missed the cut the week before his matchplay win and missed three of four previous cuts before Kazakhstan. It’s what you get with young players – a huge amount of inconsistency.
What really got my attention was his aptitude for playing parkland courses – all his wins have been on similar tracks – and guess what Leopard Creek and Zhailju are BOTH Arnold Palmer designed parkland courses.
Now I admit this could be inspired research or an absolute load of rubbish but I have backed him to win a small fortune in lots of different markets including 1000 for the win on Betfair and with Mustardbet.
I wanted to take out the home equation and you can back him without the big three @ 400/500 with Sky, Sportingbet or Boyles if you are lucky enough – or Betfair are 250/1 and take out Wallace as well – but that sadly isn’t the case for most! So…
20 points ew 500/1 1/5 7 – a few 750/1
20 points top 10 50/1
20 points top 20 25/1
20 points ew top European 100/1 ¼ 4
20 points ew top GB& Ire 60/1
15 points ew FRL 250/1

december 12th 09.56
Indonesian Masters
Suradit Yongcharoenchai

30 points ew outright without Rose and Stenson 75/1 (average)
20 points ew FRL 100/1 – 80/1 and above fine

To me Rose looks pretty much unopposable but I will never take odds below 2/1 in a 140 runner field so I can only back my one selection in the outright market without Rose and they throw in Stenson as well!
There are plenty of books up although Oddschecker isn’t playing ball – all the normal copiers of the main books  plus Boyles 90, Skybet 80, Betfair/Paddy 66 etc
The young Thai player can be a little inconsistent but we have to remember he is still only 20 years of age and has shown a liking for the Royale Jakarta layout – 2nd in 2016 and 17th last year.
When he was 2nd he chucked in a second round of 74 which rather scuppered his chances and last year had bookend 72’s as opposed to Justin Rose 62’s!
With plenty of low rounds in those eight it makes sense to back him FRL although he does have a late tee time
As for current form well in his last nine starts he has a 2nd, 3rd and 5th in Asia and in his last four starts he has been 7/1/89/6 after the opening day

december 5th 11.50
There are enough books up to warrant a crack at this weeks Q School event played at the Whirlwind course in Arizona – just south of Tucson and Scottsdale.
I have gone for a two pronged attack – firstly home town players who have the luxury of sleeping in their own bed which gave me winner Jim Renner two years ago @ 200/1.
Secondly the top five players from the two feeder tours – Mackenzie and LatinoAmerica – are already granted cards for the tour and usually those placed 2nd to 5th turn up and play in this to improve their ranking. Over the past three years twenty such players have turned up and achieved places @ 33,66,100,150, 200 and 200. It really makes sense as these players know they have “job security” on this tour at the beginning of next year. Those in form on the Mackenzie Tour are particularly worthy of note – last years winner Lee McCoy had been 6th on that money list and 2015 winner Adam Svensson 9th
George Cunningham was 2nd on the Mackenzie Tour this year and he hasn’t been missed as he is around 20/1 and vying for favouritism but I just don’t get why those who sat just behind him are at least four times his price.

Zach Wright
25 points ew 100/1 – widely available
Zach gets in as a double whammy – 3rd in the money list just behind Cunningham and was born and lives in Phoenix

Michael Gellerman
15 points ew 150/1 – 125/1 fine
Not quite so keen on the chances of Gellerman who was 5th on the money list with a pair of 2nd places, but although I don’t think he lives there any longer (?) was born and raised in Tucson

Brock Mackenzie
20 points ew 175/1 – B365 are 200/1 – anything in 3 figures is fine
Phoenix resident and brother of Paige was one of the players who was 2nd on the Mackenzie Tour money list in 2016 and was then 4th in the Q School.
Teeing it up in 2017 in the first event of the season in the Bahamas he suffered a massive back injury and was out for a whole year, he returned this year on a medical exemption and just fell short of making it to the Final Series.
He has the ability, has gone this route before and warmed up with a win in a mini tour event at home in Arizona this week

I have been playing on the Betfair market as well as there are some decent prices being put up – I haven’t managed to get Mackenzie on board but have the other two and also added Corey Periera – 4th on the Mackenzie Tour money list, Michael Buttacavoli – 3rd on the Latino Tour courtesy of two ins including the season ending Shell Championship and couldn’t leave out last years winner Lee McCoy at double his book price
Lee Mccoy 110.00  £10.00  £1,090.00
Corey Pereira 152.14  £28.00  £4,232.00
Michael Buttacavoli 145.00  £20.00  £2,880.00
Michael Gellerman 189.13  £23.00  £4,327.00
Zach Wright 120.53  £19.00  £2,271.00

december 4th 12.24
Just to clear something up – this event is a combination of the South African Open and the Joburg Open played over the two courses at Randpark where last years Joburg Open was played with a field of 220 + players and is tri-sanctioned between the European, Sunshine and Asian tours – I think!
Louis Oosthuizen is the justifiably short priced favourite, I couldn’t be backing Fritelli @ 12/1 as he is yet to win on home soil in nearly 50 attempts, Norris and Harding are noteworthy but 40/1 just feels on the short side and one player I have left out from my original list is Jaco van Zyl who probably would have been a bet @ 100/1 (maybe worth a saver on Betfair) but he always gets in his own way.
So looking further down the list I have three picks for this week.

Haydn Porteous
30 points ew 66/1 – 1/5 7 places, 80/1 with B365 if you can get on there
I expected Porteous to play well here last year but he was only 16/1 and didn’t back him that short and the pressure of defending his first title clearly showed as he only finished 49th.
The reason for my interest was that he had strong memories of the Randpark courses as back in 2013 he won the Northern Amateur by an amazing 14 shots!
He hasn’t exactly set the world on fire this year but as a four time winner – twice in European events, once in Kenya and the Investec Cup at home I think he’s worth a crack at the odds this week

Zander Lombard
20 points ew  150/1 – again B365 are a standout 160/1 and 125/1 is acceptable
Staying on a theme – Lombard also won here in the 2012 Northern Amateur though not by such an emphatic margin but was disqualified in round one here last year.
He really is a hit and miss player – when he is on he’s hugely talented – when he’s off he’s awful but springs to life occasionally from nowhere.
He had a fairly awful 2018 until the Irish Open when he finished 6th which got him into the Open where he sat 6th at the cut before fading and that set him up for a low key win at home a few starts later.
After such a poor season he had to go back to Q School where he was co-medalist with Canizares beating Kitayama into 3rd – maybe he can take inspiration by that mans win last week in Mauritius

Kim Koivu
20 points ew 150/1 – 125/1 absolutely fine
Tipped him up last week @ 80/1 and would be foolish not to go in again, his win ratio is great and I just feel he will go on to win at this level.
He will probably be a player I will follow over a cliff and will probably forget to back when his time comes!

november 28th 11.01
Mauritius Open
Kim Koivu

40 points ew 80/1

A decent play based purely on price and potential for a player who appears to have the winning knack
The Finn has an interesting back story – he didn’t even pick up a club until he was 16  went to college in the States but decided he needed to totally change his swing before he turned professional.
That change took four years and he finally turned pro a year ago aged 26 having gained a Challenge Tour card through Q School.
It didn’t take him long to reap the rewards of all that effort winning in just his second start before adding two more victories in August to gain “battlefield promotion” to the main tour.
In just his third start he was 7th in Portugal and backed that up with a 9th in Hong Kong last week.
He reminds me a bit of Matt Wallace – a bit of a late developer who has the game and determination to win.
Whether this is his week remains to be seen but it’s a bit like Wallaces’ first win that came in a weak field – I’ll take the chance that the course will suit because I don’t think he will be these odds in this class of field very often

Siddikur Rahman
30 points top 5 finish – 28/1 or bigger – some 30/33 about

From a player who is a proven winner to one who can seemingly snatch defeat from the jaws of victory as he did in 2016 around here – on the 16th tee he has a three shot lead and was trading at 1/20 – he lost!
It’s not the first time that has happened and he only has one ADT victory, a win in Brunei in 2010 and a win around Delhi to his name in 188 career starts around the world
Apart from that win at Delhi he also has nine (!) top five finishes around that course in just 16 starts.
If that 2nd here was him showing a liking for the course then odds of around 28/1 + for a top 5 finish seem worth taking as he has a 15% top 5 strike rate in all career starts

november 27th 13.59
Australian PGA Championship
Sean Crocker

40 points ew 50/1

One of those frustrating mornings yesterday – the opening line from B365 was 110/1 but it was soon tumbling – I managed to get on @ 70/1 with one of the copiers but was always going to be a bet for me @ 50/1 despite his missed cut when we were on last week in Hong Kong.
He missed the cut on the mark having been out in the somewhat doomed morning wave on day one opening with a 76 he fired right back on day two with a ten shot better score of 66.
He has already shown a liking for golf down under – as I said last week he was 2nd in the strokeplay section of the World Super 6 in Perth and also finished 7th here at Royal Pines.
That 7th place finish was all the more impressive as he had a very cold week with the putter – if his tee to green play is as good as it was last year and the putter warms up he should be right in contention

november 21st 11.31
A very unusual market this week with the top 6 taking a huge chunk out the market but in my opinion this left us with some great e/w betting opportunities at inflated prices and we definitely had to go in early on Crocker and Sordet. The two obvious ones were the two Aussies Fraser and Scrivener with their course form and the dominance of Australian players in this over the past few years, however I didn’t think their prices warranted a bet – the former is almost impossible to get over the line and missed the cut here last year whilst the latter only has a poor Australian title to his name and a 5% top 5 strike rate in European Tour events.

Clement Sordet
25 points ew 150/1
20 points ew Top Continental European 60/1 1/5 4 – B365 are 66/1 (50/1 fine)
The talented young Frenchman graduated from the Challenge Tour in 2017 having won twice and things looked bright with a 10th place finish here but after that it all went a bit awry. Despite a late season spurt that remained his highest season on tour and despite a late season rally he had to go back to Q School where he finished a solid t6th. Those two victories in 2017 added to his wins in 2015 and 2016 so he certainly knows how to win and does seem to be a bit of a “horses for courses” type of player – Le Vaudreill 2/5/9, Gloria 1/5, Galgorm 1/6/34 – so he should be happy back here at Fanling.
It wasn’t the only time he had played well at this time of year in Asia – in 2015 he finished 2nd at Amata Spring taking a two shot lead into the final round only Donaldson beat him and whilst he tied with Westwood he beat Garcia, Fitzpatrick, Kaymer and Watson in a decent field.
I added the Continental Europe bet as despite his odds being cut outright this market was missed and takes out the likes of Fleetwood, Reed, Fitzpatrick and a lot of the well fancied players

Paul Peterson
25 points ew 80/1
20 points ew FRL 66/1 (60/1 fine)
The American was another who had to return to Q School but with less success and so returns to the Asian Tour where most of his career best results have been
Despite a largely indifferent season in Europe he has returned to Asia a few times this year and has a win and 2nd to his name
Last year he returned to playing in Asia in the Autumn and ran up finishes of 8/2/7/2 – the last finish being here in Hong Kong
It wasn’t the first time he had played well here as the year before as he opened 66/68 the year before to sit 3rd at the cut before fading – hence he is worth a crack in the FRL market

Sean Crocker
30 points ew 66/1
This young Zimbabwean is destined to make a name for himself on the world stage and didn’t need to go to Q School to get his card having won it via the Challenge Tour – in just ten events he had no less than four 3rd place finishes and a 5th. It is worth noting two of those came in the Chinese events so he should feel right at home in Hong Kong – indeed he showed that when 16th here last year and is now a much better player. He followed that up with a 7th in the Australian PGA and 6th in the Singapore Open (which got him an invite to the Open) and even sat 3rd with a round to go in the Qatar Masters.
Course form here correlates well with Lake Karrinyup and in the World Super 6th he sat 2nd after three rounds of strokeplay before being knocked out in the quarter finals
I reckon he is a cracking each way play this week

Ashley Chesters
25 points ew 90/1 (80/1 fine) 130 for the win on Betfair
Last but no means least I will give the young Englishman another crack on a course that should in theory suit his short but incredibly accurate game.
He got us a place in the Andalucian Masters even after a shocking start to his final round he fought back really well and late season form from Valderrama pans out well here
Admittedly he was only 39th on his debut last year but if you look at his form this year he has stepped up his results on more or less every course he has played well before.
I am not concerned about his last two finishes on venues which wouldn’t have suited his game – basically giving up 30-40 yards a hole means he had no chance despite always sticking it in the fairway – that won’t be an issue this week

november 14th 19.12
CT Pan and JJ Spaun are obvious picks this week but I am happy to overlook two non PGA tour winners @ around the 20/25 mark – I believe that way the poor house beckons but it means there is value further down the field

Jim Furyk
60 points ew 50/55 – lots of different place options were available
I simply don’t get the price of Furyk this week – can only be his age that makes him a big price considering his current/course form yet what did we see last week with two forty somethings winning for the first time in a while, and it’s only been 3 ½ years since his last tour win.
He has had a lot more on his plate than most players this year with the Ryder Cup captaincy but he was 4th in the Wyndham Championship before those duties fully took over. Returning to normal playing duties was always going to be a bit tricky and he m/c at Summerlin but followed that up with 6th last week in Mexico. He may also be inspired by two of this years Ryder Cup Vice Captains winning last week.
You can forget him contending at bombers courses but this is right up his alley – two of his last three wins have been around Harbour Town – very similar to this weeks venue.
He has solid course form of 11/3/6 and feels right at home in Georgia with excellent form around East Lake including 1/2/2/3
Last weeks 6th showed his game was in fine fettle ranking 1st for DA and 2nd for GIR – if he can maintain that at this weeks venue he won’t be far away

Robert Streb
20 points ew 110/1
Not often you can back a player at three figures in a fairly weak field who has won the event before, won just three months ago (admittedly a finals event) and was 4th on his penultimate start on the PGA tour.
I just think he is a value bet at the odds when you consider the above points (now 140 on Betfair)

november 14th 17.20
First of all a quick apology re Zach Murray – I got the round wrong he played at the Lakes Course in the 2015 Australian Amateur - he shot a 65 round the other course. Rare I make mistakes – apart from backing the wrong players! I was also going on the tee times from the Australian PGA site but Sinnott now does not play.

DP World Tour Championship
Paul Dunne
20 points ew FRL 125/1 Ladbrokes/Coral 100/1 fine

My only play of the week as I think the cream will rise to the top on a bombers birdie fest paradise but from a statistical point of view Dunne is worth a look at in this market.
If you look at the stats Dunne isn’t the biggest hitter in the field but over the last few months he seems to have found some extra yardage ranking 8th in the field over the past four months
He played here last year and opened with a 67 to sit 4th and whilst he was let down by rounds two and four he also shot a 67 in round three so can clearly score around here.
Finally in 85 tour starts he has co-led four times and held the outright lead twice including just two weeks ago in Turkey when opening with a 64 – there’s certainly some value in a three figure price

november 14th 11.45
Zach Murray

20 points ew 66/1 FRL
30 points ew 80/1 Outright

I will kick off the blog with this weeks Australian Open as it starts the earliest – 7.45 UK time this evening.
This was a great event last year getting Cameron Davis as FRL @ 125/1 and a “suggested” outright bet at a huge price and I return to the Australian Amateur event from 2015 which led me to Davis last year.
That event which was won by the youngster was held over two courses – the main matchplay on last years venue the Australian course but the strokeplay was held over that course and this weeks The Lakes course.
In the two round strokeplay part Murray shot the lowest round of 65 – a very impressive score so it should bring back some good memories.
The 21 year old has decided to turn pro for his home Open on the back of some very solid form whilst still an amateur.
He won the Western Australian Open a few weeks ago leading from wire to wire and was half way leader in the Queensland Open the following week and was bang there for a place on the final day til a couple of late double bogeys dropped him to 20th.
I was hopeful of a slightly bigger price like Davis last year but then again we don’t have Spieth or Day in the field.
The FRL bet would be bigger but he has been allocated a late tee time although he does play with his best mate and roomie Synott which should help him settle

november 9th 10.59
Mayakoba Classic in play bet

Russell Henley
40 points ew 50/1 1/4 5 (Betfair 1/5 6)

Henley was on my radar before the start due to where his three PGA tour wins have been as there seems to be a correlation with the Sony and even the venue of his two other wins Houston and PGA National. My one concern was lack of form and never played here before but a -5 opening round has allayed those fears so in the book he goes

European Qualifying School
Oscar Lengden 25 points ew 125/1 1/5 6 (150/1 Betvictor)

There now seem to be enough books up to warrant a bet in this six round event that starts tomorrow.
Earlier this year Lengden looked set to gain his card through the Challenge Tour with ease after winning the Catalunya Challenge just down the road from this weeks venue by a comfortable four shot margin.
However a complete loss of form over the Summer saw him slip slowly down the rankings though he did rally in his last two events with 7th and 17th narrowly missing out on gaining a full tour card.
The reason I like him this week is that compilers seem to have missed his Nordic League form over the two courses – Lumine Hills and Lakes – where in 2016 and 2017 he produced form of 2/34/7/1
The 34 may look bad but in the 54 hole event he was joint leader into the final round before tearing a muscle and being barely able to play.
If we take the 11 rounds he has played over the two courses when fit we have an average score of 68.36 which would see him score around 410 – probably enough for a place looking at last years result – Horsfield was a runaway winner.
Ordinarily this would be a bigger bet but there is always one caveat – you don’t have to win just get your card so the higher you finish the better.

november 7th 19.12
Ken Tanigawa

40 points ew 100/1 – B365 are 110/1

Location! Location! Location!
Tanigawa probably can’t believe the year he has had, once a pro with little success he regained his amateur status with a great deal of success later in life.
The Scottsdale resident then decided to enter Champions Q School and got a card and turned pro again.
The key is this week we play in Phoenix where he gained his card at the end of the last year and he is sure at home in Arizona as in recent years he won
2014 Arizona mid am
2015 Arizona mid am, Arizona amateur 
2017 Arizona amateur  
He was also runner up in the 2016 Arizona amateur – all against players mainly less than half his age
Whilst this weeks course is different to those events above he does also have plenty of experience of this weeks.
What tipped the balance was that his win just 6 weeks ago came at Pebble Beach – a course he has played all his life as he studied at UCLA
Massive outsider but he has already exceeded his expectations and with home advantage he should give a good account of himself

november 7th 16.07
Trevor Immelman

15 points ew 200/1
Various ways of getting on – fine if you have a Fred account
He is 240/1 on Betfair Exchange e/w market
He is 400+ for the win and 40+ for the top 5
I admit to backing him to win a fair chunk @ 400 but that would probably be traded IF he gets close!
Yup totally left field I know but Immelman is still only 38 and may not be done as a golfer yet and take up his full time commentating role.
It may seem an age since his Masters victory but the last time he actually strung a few events together 5 years ago he won in the finals series.

His 3rd place finish in the Scottish Open came totally out of the blue but he reckons he has been playing quite well for most of the year but letting rounds slip – on Sunday he had to fight hard to simply get into this week, he improved with every round and just squeaked in despite a double bogey on his final hole.
He said he was desperate to get into the Nedbank and play the Gary Player course for the first time in a decade as he has won the now defunct old style Nedbank and also the Dimension Data Pro-Am around this course.
Yup I know it’s been a while since he played here but if you look at long term scoring averages only Willett comes out better and IF he can repeat his 3rd in the Scottish Open he should come close.

november 7th 11.17
Over the years the Mayakoba Golf Classic (or whatever it has decided to call itself) has tended to go the way of the older more wily veteran golfer and I have put up one accordingly and one youngster who may well relish the return to a venue with happy memories

Kevin Streelman
35 points ew 125/1 – 100/1 fine
As I stated last week he hit the big 4 0 on Sunday and hopefully he hasn’t been celebrating too much since then as he has a fine record here.
With a  stroke average of 68.35 he leads this weeks field on those that have played here three times before, he has never missed a cut and has a 3rd and 4th place finish to his name.
The main problem is that the 4th place in 2016 was his last top 5 finish on the PGA tour so I guess I really am hoping that turning 40 will have an impact on his game

Cameron Davis
45 points ew 70/1 outright  (I got 7 places) 66/1 is fine
20 points ew 66/1 FRL
Then we come to the youngster which in theory goes against the grain of what I said about wily old veterans.
In 2016 Davis played in the Eisenhower Trophy here – partnered by Curtis Luck they won the team competition by a staggering 19 strokes and Davis won the individual honours by two.
On the back of that he was invited to make his second pro start here when still only 21 and finished a very creditable 15th. In that finish he shot two rounds of 66 to add to the rounds of 66 and 68 he shot in the Eisenhower Trophy (two courses were used)
We were on when he shocked his home nation (well FRL at least!) winning the Australian Open just under a year ago.
He played on the tour for much of this year managing to secure his full PGA card in just 15 starts with a 1st, 3rd, 3rd and 4th and has gone 17/c/28 in his three starts to date.
With such great memories of the venue and being a huge talent who hits it miles and can really putt (think Cameron Champ) I reckon he is a solid bet this week

october 31st 11.17
One of those events where those at the head of the market considering current form, course form and number of wins have to be taken on and I thought it would be easy to find some value further down the field but apart from Spaun I have struggled – mainly due to the fact that there seems to be little rhyme nor reason to most winners here bar an affinity with desert golf.

JJ Spaun
40 points ew 125/1
I think Spaun has a bit of everything going for him this week and was surprised to see him chalked up at such a big price.
Last year was his second season on tour and he notched up a 2nd and two 3rd’s – certainly an improvement on a 4th and a 6th the year before.
His top finishes have been all over the States but he has shown a liking for desert golf with 3rd in Nevada this year and 4th in Scottsdale Arizona the year before.
He missed the cut on his debut here in 2016 but last years performance stands out – he led at the cut and indeed was still joint leader heading into the final round before falling to 10th with the strong swirling winds really catching him out over the weekend (there are no such winds in the forecast this week)
A top ten finish last time out in South Korea where he improved with every round should put him spot on for this and hopefully replicate his run of form exactly a year ago
Due to his fast start last year and an early tee time I have also backed him in the FRL market – 15 points ew 80/1

After scratching around all week for another selection I have decided to side with Kevin Streelman – it would be a good way to celebrate his 40th birthday on Sunday!
His form is fairly average around here but he was 2nd four years ago, the problem is how to back him as he hasn’t had a top 5 finish in two years but last year amassed five top tens in the full season.
If you can get on the 125/1 ew 6 or 7 places great but I would recommend
20 points win 160 and above Betfair
10 points top 5 25/1
30 points top 10 10/1

october 30th 17.34
Joost Luiten

40 points ew 40/1
I think the 50/1 on Betfair is also well worth a dabble and he is 46/1 with no commission with Mustardbet
I was looking a bit further down the field this week (nothing new there!) as I feel those at the top of the listings are beginning to run on fumes and looking for someone with fresh legs Luiten certainly fits that bill.
He probably thought at the beginning of the year having won in Oman he could make a challenge for the Ryder Cup squad but that was derailed with a wrist injury and he was forced into a five month layoff.
He returned in the Andalucian Masters two weeks ago finishing a very creditable 11th improving his score with every round and was very pleased with his performance. What makes it even more incredible if the stats are to be believed is that he was putting and scrambling very badly – a part of the game which I think is a great indicator of rustiness – the feel around the short game.
The guy is a clinical finisher when he gets the chance and six European Tour wins to his name is testament to that fact.
As for course form – well 16th place in his only start belies the fact that he was joint leader after round one and shot a 67 in round three – it was only a second round 73 that cost him
For a confirmed winner, who is rested more than most on a course that should suit I think he is worth a crack @ 40/1 and above

october 27th 11.33
To be honest selections haven’t played very well this week but there is one player who nearly went in the book at the start and now definitely has to go in.
As I stated in my preview there is an odd link between Jackson and Victoria National and a past winner of the latter event is on the fringes of contention.
Seamus Power won that event on the tour in 2016  and has plied his trade on the main tour for the last two years admittedly without a lot of success.
But he does have form here in two starts (albeit faltering in the final round on each occasion) – 2016 he was 6th and 2 back heading into Sunday and last year was 3rd although 6 behind with that final round to go.
He does like it here as this quote shows “ It's just one of those courses when I step on the tee boxes, I kind of like how the lines look, and then the greens are cut -- I like putting on fast greens,”
Currently t15th on -5 he will need a more consistent weekend but @ 66/1 ¼ 4 I think he’s worth a punt – 25 points ew.
october 25th 11.04
A little update for those who hadn't read my blog from a couple months back
As you are probably aware I deleted the Bookmaker review page from the site last year as I couldn’t really justify recommending many bookmakers but for the first time in many years I can say that this Bookmaker should be part of your betting portfolio – Mustardbet
They first came to my attention four years ago and I have been waiting for them to launch their Sportsbook which came last year but more importantly for me been waiting for them to offer decent golf markets which they now do. A spin off from Gambit Research with connections to Mollybet I am happy to say there is plenty behind this organisation. I have been trialling them for the past month and must admit I love what I see – a refreshing change from the “High Street” books and hopefully the future – well something has to change!!
The user interface is very simple and very quick to load mainly due to its simplicity – gone are all the bells and whistles of most sites. The actual betting interface is great with a rotating bet platform that loads instantaneously showing the price available and the amount you can bet. If you fancy a price the bet is placed immediately – no delay and the price is automatically changed. Still like the price – well you can go in again.
That takes me onto betting limits – well in theory there really aren’t any – if you still like a price you can carry on betting up to the max at each price – they use algorithms to set the prices much like Pinnacle. Obviously I can only talk about golf but at present they are betting to win £5k on this weeks PGA tour. However you have to remember you can bet multiple times to build up big positions and that includes in-play.
If you fancy Seung-Jae Im this week he is 25/1 on the High Street and being matched around that on Betfair but nearly 30/1 with Mustardbet
Admittedly they don’t bet each way but they do offer all the place individual markets.
For me I can see this is the future of my golf betting – their odds are often on a par with the Betfair Exchange with far better “liquidity” especially in running and no commission or premium charge to boot. With the colour of their website maybe they are the Purple Bricks of the betting world.
In short they are a must have in your portfolio – to open an account simply click here and find out what I am talking about - Mustardbet

october 24th 14.46
A difficult event to weigh up with outsiders winning all four events at the Jackson course in Mississippi, but I spotted a theme two years ago which developed again last year and that is the correlation between this and events staged on the Tour @ the Victoria National. In reality it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense but it seems to work!
1st Armour – 2nd VN
3rd Randolph – 2nd twice VN
4th Kaufman – Won VN
1st Gribble – 9th and 2nd VN
2nd Owen – Won VN
1st Malnati – 9th and 14th VN
4th Kizzire – 5th VN
4th Castro – 5th VN

Roberto Castro
20 points ew outright 100/1 (110/1 365)
20 points ew FRL 80/1
As you can see from above Castro already has form here when 4th in his second and last start back in 2015 when he opened with a course record 62 and led by 2 after round one and by 4 at the cut before a very poor round 3 before bouncing back in the final round. I have my doubts about him winning but a replication of his 62 would see him go close in the opening round.
Having regained his playing rights through the regular money list on the tour it seems odd that he didn’t compete in any of the Tour final events – electing to have a bit of a break so he should be fresher than most

Wyndham Clark
20 points ew outright 150/1 – get as many places as possible
20 points ew FRL 125/1 – 100/1 fine
I think Clark will make a name for himself on the PGA tour in the next few seasons after making it on to the main tour in his rookie season on the
He gained his card thanks to a 2nd,3rd,4th and 5th on that tour – worth noting his 2nd came at Victoria National
He has a few PGA tour starts to his name – mainly due to sponsors invitations and his best finish was 17th here last year when he opened with a 66 and tied the lead
In the Safeway Open he also opened with a 66 to sit 4th and that seems a sensible route to go as well as the outright bet

october 23rd 11.15
Matt Wallace

35 pts ew 125/1 Outright
I will admit to being disappointed with his finish at Walton Heath having had a decent bet on but you could see once Pepperell chipped in for eagle and moved 5 clear Wallace knew he couldn’t win – and he’s that sort of golfer – all he wants to do is win and has proved that already.
This is a big step up in grade but so was the step up from the Alps Tour to the European Tour and that has gone very well!
On the question of travelling – well he hasn’t gone far afield that regularly in his fledgling career but a win in India and 3rd in the China Open prove that it probably isn’t a hinderance.
I don’t like mentioning a persons personal grief but Wallace put it up on Twitter – he lost his Gran on the Thursday of the British Masters and then last week lost a close golfing buddy to cancer – this often spurs a golfer on and he has said he would like a big finish to the year in their “honour”
First Round Leader – having put up Levy and Wallace outright at Walton Heath and then Chesters last week and see them all finish atop the leaderboard after day one was a bit galling to say the least so I have also backed Wallace for this market. In just 47 European Tour starts he has co-led four times (including the last twice and 2nd the week before) and been outright leader once. Throw in a 2nd after round one in the China Open and I think he is worth a crack in this market this week. Personally availed myself of the 80/1 at Ladbrokes but 20 points e/w 66/1 will suffice

october 16th 21.25
Andalucia Masters
Clement Sordet

20 points ew outright 150/1 – get as many places as you can I took 1/5 6
At the end of the season I like to look at least one player who needs a high finish to retain his Tour card and Sordet certainly meets that criteria – roughly speaking he needs a top 6 finish to continue playing on the main tour next year.
What first caught my eye was his gradual progress over the last 3 finishes going 40/28/16 but more important is his all round stats – 3rd in Portugal and 4th last week at Walton Heath
He makes his debut at Valderrama which is always a worry on a tough track but I always associate Hong Kong with this weeks course and that represents his best finish so far when 10th
With that in mind I was tempted to back him for a top ten finish but he knows (if he has done the maths like I have) he needs a top 6 finish
He is a promising young player who won’t be the first to go back to Q School or the lower Challenge Tour but he has four wins already at that level at the age of just 25
Pablo Larrazabal
30 points ew FRL 50/1
Larrazabal is a player I don’t think has ever reached his full potential and I wouldn’t want to back him outright but in this market I feel he warrants an interest
He has 5 starts to his name on this course at home in Spain and his results read as follows
2008 73 16th
2010 66 1st
2011 74 36th
2016 68 6th
2017 67 3rd
On every occasion he has been handed a late tee time and still pulled off three good first rounds
This week he has been handed an early berth – will be interesting to see if he can capitalise on that although there doesn’t seem any advantage in early or late with the weather

october 15th 22.25
From today SBI will no longer be a paid subscription site for tips - was going to wait til the end of the year but hand has been rather forced that affiliates will no longer accept advertisers who charge for tips. I understand why due to unscrupulous activity from affiliate partners - something I have never done - but will now publish my betting activity for no fees. I hope you enjoy reading my random thoughts on golf events and the odd horse race - always slightly off the wall but has stood me in good stead for the last 18 years! My bets are based on a points system - up to you if you want to invest but a max bet for me is 100 points depending how confident I feel
Andalucia Masters Outright
Ashley Chesters
40 points ew 100/1 – get as many places as possible
The theme of English players continued last week with Pepperell winning @ Walton Heath – sadly Wallace limped home once he knew his winning chance had gone
It really is a poor field – imagine if Garcia pulled out – Lowry would be around 9/1 and Westwood 16/1!!
Sadly a lot of run of the mill players are very short prices this week but the young Englishman Chesters catches my eye (spot the theme!)
The key to Valderrama is finding fairways and greens and nobody is better in this weeks field than Chesters – topping the Total Accuracy Stats on tour for the last 6 months
Yet to really trouble the judge this year his best finishes have been 7th and 9th in similarly weak fields largely let down by some pretty average putting.
That’s where it gets interesting – one of his best results last year was here when 12th – his closing 69/68 over the weekend was matched by few and shows he got better as the week progressed and learnt the course – but even more importantly was that he was 3rd for putts per round. If he can putt like that again and continue his excellent ball striking he could go close

october 13th 14.17
Sunday 4.45 Limerick Munster National
This was the race that I first backed Tiger Roll in back in 2016 - an unexposed 6 year old chaser making its handicap debut for Gordon Elliott and he won if with considerable ease at 20/1.
Tomorrow he runs a very similar horse in the shape of the ironically named Its All Guesswork and I can see Elliott winning the race for a second time.
It is important to note this race is won by unexposed young chasers - no horse over the age of 8 has won this in the last 14 years and 11 of the last 13 winners have only had 1 or 2 chase wins.
Those stats have to act against Rogue Angel (10) and Our Father who has been well backed but been off the course for 1382 days! plus my old favourite Raz de Maree who is now 13.
Elliott also runs Alpha des Obeaux who has swapped stables from Mouse Morris - but he usually needs his first run and maybe Elliott has kept him in off top weight to allow Its All Guesswork to run off 10 stone dead - would have been a 10lb rise otherwise.
The selection has been running over shorter trips over fences so far but shapes like it will stay 3 miles and in its one attempt over the distance over hurdles won very easily.
It seems capable of running on any sort of going and for me ticks all the right boxes.
I have been backing it during the week each way @ 12/1 and some at 10/1 and still think the latter price is decent

august 24th 11.33
Well it’s been a while since I posted here on the blog but to be honest I haven’t had anything that exciting to talk about but today I think I have! As you are probably aware I deleted the Bookmaker review page from the site last year as I couldn’t really justify recommending many bookmakers but for the first time in many years I can say that this Bookmaker should be part of your betting portfolio – Mustardbet
They first came to my attention four years ago and I have been waiting for them to launch their Sportsbook which came last year but more importantly for me been waiting for them to offer decent golf markets which they now do. A spin off from Gambit Research with connections to Mollybet I am happy to say there is plenty behind this organisation. I have been trialling them for the past month and must admit I love what I see – a refreshing change from the “High Street” books and hopefully the future – well something has to change!!
The user interface is very simple and very quick to load mainly due to its simplicity – gone are all the bells and whistles of most sites. The actual betting interface is great with a rotating bet platform that loads instantaneously showing the price available and the amount you can bet. If you fancy a price the bet is placed immediately – no delay and the price is automatically changed. Still like the price – well you can go in again.
That takes me onto betting limits – well in theory there really aren’t any – if you still like a price you can carry on betting up to the max at each price – they use algorithms to set the prices much like Pinnacle. Obviously I can only talk about golf but at present they are betting to win £8k on this weeks PGA tour, £5k on the European Tour and £2k on the tour. However you have to remember you can bet multiple times to build up big positions and that includes in-play.
To give an example – the other week I fancied Martin Trainer on the Tour – bookmaker prices were 50/1 – Mustardbet were 80/1 and I backed him seven times down to 66/1 to win £14k – find me another bookmaker who would entertain that!!
This week again on the smaller tour my main fancy Sam Burns bogeyed early and was pushed from 40/1 to 80/1 which I felt was an extreme reaction – top up duly made.
Admittedly they don’t bet each way but they do offer all the place individual markets.
For me I can see this is the future of my golf betting – their odds are often on a par with the Betfair Exchange with far better “liquidity” especially in running and no commission or premium charge to boot. With the colour of their website maybe they are the Purple Bricks of the betting world.
In short they are a must have in your portfolio – to open an account simply click here and find out what I am talking about - Mustardbet

april 21st 10.48
It’s the London Marathon tomorrow and whilst I have every respect for Kipchoge who is a deserved favourite there is a dark horse in the race and even with an odds on favourite it is nice to see a lot of books paying 1/5th the odds the first three home.
The weather is going to be unseasonably warm and I can see quite a few of the leading contenders dropping out especially if they go the fast pace to aim for records.
I really like the look of Lawrence Cherono (especially each way) as he is the 5th fastest runner in the field but has been assigned odds much higher than he should be – probably because he hasn’t run in a Major event before yet his record is an impressive one in lesser marathons.
Over the past couple of years his record reads 2/1/2/1/DNF/2/1/1 – that is incredibly consistent. Two of those last three wins have come in the Honolulu marathon which by definition is a warm weather marathon run on a very hilly course. In 2016 he won in 2.09.39 – knocking nearly 2 minutes off the course record and three minutes faster than previous London marathon winner Wilson Kipsang. He returned in December last year and lowered the record to 2.08.27!! Even more impressive is that just two months before he had won the Amsterdam Marathon in a course record 2.05.09 – a personal best for him and lowering the course record of Daniel Wanjiru who used Amsterdam as a stepping stone to winning the London Marathon last year.
So Wanjiru is around a 10/1 shot for tomorrow yet Cherono is five times the price – it makes absolutely no sense! He will probably have to improve his PB to contend but he is a rapidly improving runner who really should be an awful lot shorter especially with the each way market paying three places.
It took a bit of shopping around but I have £30 ew 50/1 and £30 win only 50/1 – good luck!
In the ladies race it probably does come down to a duel between Keitany and Dibaba but if they do go too fast in the warm weather and cut each others throats then the World Championship winner Rose Chelimo who won her gold in London in August could make a bid for a podium finish – a small bet of £12.50 ew 80/1 1/5 3.

april 20th 12.11
The last of the big four Grand Nationals tomorrow in Scotland – must admit this year hasn’t been too bad – Raz de Maree 1st in Wales, 2nd and 3rd in Ireland and then Tiger Roll winning last week – I have done four for varying reasons for the Ayr showpiece tomorrow.
For a change Gordon Elliott only has the one entry in the shape of Fagan so he must think he has a chance. I admit backing it antepost for the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham but it seems maybe the Irish maestro was saving him for this week. He is typically an unexposed chaser having his first run in a handicap and stepped up in trip – I managed to get £25 ew 16/1 – currently 12/1 I can easily see it going off shorter.
Sticking with Irish raiders Glencairn View has been a bit of a revelation stepped up to 3 miles in handicap chases. He won @ Punchestown in January then was 3rd in the Leinster National before winning a valuable Novice Handicap Chase at Navan. He has gone up a fair bit in the weights but is an improving horse. I got £25 ew at an average of 22/1 and added another £20 ew @ 25/1 on Betfair.
The National Hunt Chase has been a good guide of late – Vicente was 5th before winning this, Godsmejudge 3rd and Beshabar 2nd in recent years so Sizing Tennessee being 3rd last month catches my eye especially as he lost a shoe in running. He did fade a little bit up the hill at Cheltenham but he has often indicated he will stay a trip like this. I have had £40 ew 20/1 and added £40 23/1 average on Betfair.
Lastly Label des Obeaux looks like he has been laid out for this all season – having won the 3 mile Novice Handicap Chase at the meeting last year he has somehow got in off a one pound lower mark for this. When you look at the Racing Post comments for his last two runs in top class 3 mile handicap chases of “never threatened” and “never a factor” you do wonder what he will be like stepped up in trip an extra mile. He is probably the one I like the most and had the biggest bet on - £40 ew 25/1 and £70 28/1 average on Betfair.

april 18th 12.19
Had been in the doldrums for a little while but a nice 100/1 winner last week got us back on track - below is what I wrote about Steve Flesch - you can join for just £10 a month by visiting the tipping results page
Steve Flesch
25 points ew 100/1 – a few are 125/1
Flesch is one of those mid rank PGA tour players with a few wins to his name who I expected to do well on the Champions Tour but it hasn’t quite happened yet
The problem is he hasn’t been driving the ball that well but he started to last time out where he was 2nd for total driving and ball striking – all he needs now is the putter to get hot
This week seems as good as any as he played Sugarloaf well when it was used on the PGA tour with best finishes of 3rd, 8th and 10th twice in ten attempts
In those ten starts he putted brilliantly on three occasions finishing 1st, 1st and 2nd for putting average

april 13th 12.05
I can’t really let the Grand National pass without mentioning my other favourite horse – Tiger Roll – having backed it four times and winning three all at big prices I admit to having £75 ew @ 16/1 when Elliott declared him a runner – the horse owes me nothing. I have my doubts about tomorrow for him though – if you look back at his career he is primed for races and the next time he runs he flops. The Cross Country Chase @ Cheltenham was always his target and I just get the feeling he will be hunted around tomorrow and maybe targeted for the race next year.
I am happy with Raz de Maree and with a clear run he will be there at the finish but the only other horse that I think may outrun his odds at the bottom of the handicap is Double Ross. He has plenty of form round the National course – 5th in the Grand Sefton and the Topham over inadequate trips and staying on at the finish. If you look at his National run on soft ground in 2016 he was bang there with the leaders with about a mile to go until his saddle slipped – the jockey even jumped Valentines with no irons before pulling up. Will it stay – well that’s the big question – but he always seems to be plodding along at the end of his races – including when 4th in the Kim Muir last time out over a mile shorter. I just don’t get his price compared to some a lot shorter but have only invested modestly - £25 ew 100/1 ¼ 5 and £50 win 120 on Betfair

april 10th 12.10
Thirteen year olds don’t win the Grand National or so we are told, they also don’t win the Welsh National – but try telling that to Gavin Cromwell and his veteran chasing star Raz de Maree. Over the years I build up an affinity with these staying chasers and have to admit Raz has been one of my favourites in recent years. The year before aged 12 I was on Raz each way at 50/1 in the Welsh National when it chased home Native River – and that is a very good benchmark indeed. I backed it last year in the Grand National to win a small fortune (well for me!) and he was a bit unlucky ducking to avoid a fallen horse in front and chucking Ger Fox out the side door – but you need a bit of luck in running. Hopefully he can stay out of trouble under a sensible ride from Grand National winning jockey Robbie Power.
He was then pulled up in the Irish National after his saddle slipped at the first fence. After an unusual fall at Limerick in October (he has never fallen before) he finished 2nd over 3 ½ miles on soft ground in the Cork National – where the winner Logical Song appeared as a blot on the handicap. Then freshened up over hurdles on unsuitable good ground he went on to win the Welsh National over 3 m 5f in soft ground – staying on when all others cried wolf. That day he was 25/1 early on – purely because 13 year olds won’t win!
To be honest we don’t get many 13 year old runners in the National these days – they are usually rated too low to get in but Vics Canvas did the old brigade proud two years ago when 3rd @ 100/1 – I was on that day each way and he even traded at 6/4 jumping the last upsides the lead.
Raz is only a little horse so can’t run under a big weight and I was mightily relieved Cromwell saved him for this instead of running in the Midlands National under top weight – a race he had previously been 2nd in 2015 on soft going. On Saturday he gets to run with just 10 8  on his back – actually a pound lower than last year.
Another key fact is he is slow but stays all day when other horses are flagging Raz keeps going – if they go the usual fast pace it will be a war of attrition over the last mile and few will be staying on better than Raz de Maree. He did jump round in 8th back in 2014 but never got the chance to get in a blow as they went too quick for him on the faster ground.  So I hope the rain keeps falling and I am sure a few headlines will use the translation of his French name “Tidal Wave” if he was to prevail. Just to bring into perspective the fact about Grand National statistics -  a few years ago a “golden rule” was never to back a French bred horse – then we had three winners in six years!!
So onto my bets – I don’t expect anyone to copy (well you can’t as prices have gone!) but I have been backing it since January and my current bets read
£125 ew 50/1 – some Non Runner money back and a variety of place terms from 4 to 6
My bets on Betfair are £150 win 80/1 average and £20 top 4 25/1
I know my heart will be in my mouth come 5.15 on Saturday but sometimes you have to back up your gut instinct with hard cash – will be back later in the week with further thoughts and picks

april 1st 13.53
A bit like Elliot and Mullins I will be entering the fray mob handed!!
A few points to note – three of the last four winners were having their first run in a handicap, four of the last eleven winners had run in the National Hunt Chase @ Cheltenham. You have to go back to 1997 to find a winner aged older than ten. Having said that there are always lies, damn lies and statistics – trends are there to be broken and only to be used as a guide. I remember people telling me Rule the World couldn’t win the Grand National as it hadn’t won a chase – and we know what happened there!
Below are my thoughts on the horses that interest me and also a few that don’t.
The official going is soft/heavy – those at the top of the weights are going to struggle in a race often dominated by horses further down the handicap – Our Duke was the exception last year winning shouldering 11-4 but that was run on good to yielding ground.
I have a sneaky suspicion that Elliott has left in Outlander simply so some of his further down the handicap get in off a lower weight – although it is having its first handicap run it does have 18 chase runs to its name  - and the jockey takes off a valuable 7lb.
Bellshill could well be this years Our Duke – it looks a good horse and is running in a handicap for the first time but I am happy to leave it out carrying 11-5
Monbeg Notoriuos looks a seriously good horse and easily won the Thyestes – but he now has to carry 15lb more in its second handicap chase
Pairofbrowneyes is the favourite on the back of winning the Leinster National over half a mile shorter on its first run for Mullins. Considering what it had achieved before (admittedly over shorter trips) I do have my doubts about it.
Mall Dini is the horse that fits the category of running in the 4 mile National Hunt Chase, sent off a well backed favourite it finished 2nd making it 0/10 over fences. There hasn’t been much of a gap between the two races this year and it had a hard race.
Lingering down the bottom of the weights on just 9-10 is Squouateur and this is the horse I fancy the most. Well known as being well backed for the Kim Muir in the last two years – he was just getting into it last year when unseating and this year ran a good race to be 3rd. The only other time it has run over 3 miles over fences was in the Paddy Power Chase where it finished a very creditable 3rd to Anibale Fly beaten just over 8 lengths – that horse then went on to finish a distant 3rd in the Gold Cup so is probably a good yardstick. I admit it has yet to win a chase but has mainly been campaigned over trips far short of what it probably needs.
Staying down the bottom of the handicap Forever Gold catches my eye with course and distance figures of 2/1/2. It ran no sort of race in the Grand National trial at Punchestown last time out and is now fitted with a tongue tie for the first time. Whilst I find it difficult to envisage it winning I can see it running on into a place.
Trends and stats say Blessthewings has no chance at the age of 13 but the old warhorse still seems to retain some ability. He has been 2nd in the race the last two years off 135 and 137 and runs again off 137 this year. Ran poorly in his first two starts of the year but bounced back to win a Cross Country Handicap @ Cheltenham off 147. He was then saved for the Cross Country Chase at the Festival and was running well when he fell. That was the first time he had ever fallen in his career and Elliott said he just lost a bit of concentration. Do not write off this old-timer yet.
Sticking with the older horses – whilst Isleofhopendreams is now 11 he has spent a lot of his career away from the track with two breaks of nearly two years each time – so much so that this will be only his fourth chase start. He ran poorly in his first two starts this season but was a revelation when stepped up in trip in the trial race at Punchestown just being denied by Folsom Blue who he now has a 4lb pull on.
From one extreme to the other – there are two six year olds running and both of them I can give a bit of a chance as they are unexposed. Kemboy only has the three chase runs to his name all in non-handicaps and all over a trip a mile shorter than this. However I don’t think Mullins would have entered it if he didn’t think it stood a chance although he will have to improve his jumping to be competitive.
The other youngster is Moulin A Vent – if you like Monbeg Notorious then you have to give this one some sort of chance – as he beat that horse by 18 lengths here over three miles in December. Admittedly the latter reversed the placings last time out but Moulin A Vert made some terrible jumping errors that day. Considering how well he beat Monbeg Notorious then a mark 6lb lower could be lenient on his first try in a handicap

So onto my bets – these have been placed since decs were made on Friday – look out for those books offering extra places – some of the Betfair bets I will use to maybe trade in running

Squouateur £75 ew 14/1 5 places + £75 win Betfair 20/1
Forever Gold £15 ew 50/1 5 places + £10 win Betfair 75/1
Blessthewings £30 ew 33/1 4 places
Isleofhopendreams £35 ew 14/1 4 places
Kemboy £20 ew 33/1 4 places
Moulin A Vent £15 ew 33/1 5 places + £10 win Betfair 44/1

MARCH 20th 09.32

Long term bets to consider for fans of ‘request a bet’

Request a bet has changed the way we sports fans bet on sporting events. It is a superb idea and one which has seen many prescient fans win a great deal of money. How many of us have been watching a new footballer, or seeing an upcoming tennis player and thinking that you see something big in their future?

Having done that the obvious move is to head to a betting site and then place some money on that player reaching the top of their sport. However, previously, it would happen that it would turn out that there was no option to use your knowledge to win money.

The company would not want to look that far into the future and would be unwilling to place something up online. When betting was mostly done offline, you could go into a local shop and ask for odds on something. There are some famous examples, like a father betting on his son to play for Manchester United (and winning.) However these bets would often take forever to get ratified by the head office of the bookmaker whose shop you had popped into.

Now many companies offer the chance to do this quickly and easily. You can tweet them, you can call them and you can use their online live chat to request a bet on anything you like meaning you can put your knowledge to use and hopefully make some money from having a great eye for talent.

This has become particularly appealing in the modern age where there are lots of bookie free bets on offer, so you can put your prediction to the test without even using your own money. With a free bet you can have a flutter without having to put a single penny of your own money on it, it is absolutely ideal. This has made request a bet one of the most popular offering from online bookmakers and many people have made interesting and exciting bets.

To celebrate the fact that punters are being given more control than ever and the chance to take on the bookmakers at their own game, by creating their own market, here are some long term bets, one related to football another to tennis, you might want to consider. These are not bets which you will be winning anytime soon,you won’t be collecting your winnings in the upcoming weeks. But that is what makes them such fun bets, that they take time and patience and that makes the payoff amazing. So here are two top tips for long term bets that you should be considering.

Xavi Hernandez to win the Champions League as a coach

Under manager Pep Guardiola at Barcelona and Vicente Del Bosque at Spain, Xavi looked like a manager on the pitch, he would give orders, he would tell players where to move and he would look as if he was having and putting in place tactical ideas. It is clear that he will move into management as he has the temperament, the respect and the brain to do it. He was a magical player and was so successful that it would be a real shock if he couldn’t do the same as a coach. He is so clearly a long term choice for Barcelona, they will absolutely have him back as a coach and he will win the Champions league for them. This is a great and fun long term bet that should pay off sooner rather than later, as Xavi is clearly starting the transition into coaching.

Alexander Zverev to win a career Grand Slam

Zverev’s career has stalled a little, but he seems like the biggest talent of the upcoming group of next generation tennis players. He has already won ATP tour events and clearly has talent on every surface. When the big five of Murray, Federer, Djokovic, Nadal and Wawrinka, who have swept up all the slams before them retire, there will be a huge gap that needs filling and Zverev looks like he has the talent to do it. A career slam will be tough but it seems tough to work out who will be able to challenge him once the big guns are gone. It’s more risky than the Xavi bet, but it will likely have a much higher pay off.

february 27th 08.41

Matched free bets - Facts you should know

Matched free bet is the most commonly offered type of free bet to the new signups at online betting portals. Whenever a customer signs up, he must make a certain deposit in order to start placing active bets. This minimum deposit amount is normally around £ 5. Some bookies might keep it higher too. The free bet amount is determined based on this initial deposit.
Whenever a customer gets a free bet amount which is equal to his/her initial deposit, it is referred to as a matched free bet. So, if a customer opens an account at an online bookmaker after following a particularly juicy betting tip, and deposits £ 100 into it, he/she might get the same best free bets for Cheltenham from that online bookie. There is normally a lower and upper limit to these free bets, in the form of what minimum and maximum amount would get matched by the bookmaker. Majority of the bookies that offer such free bets place a time restriction on their usage as well.
Many times customers holding inactive accounts with online bookmakers are offered such matched free bets too, so as to encourage them to deposit and start betting again. For instance, if you have zero balance in your account with an X online bookmaker, and haven’t placed any bets for quite some time, you might get contacted by them with a proposal that if you deposit £ 50 into your account, they would match that amount with a free bet.

Matched free bets that are event-specific

Some online bookmakers might offer you free bets only when you bet on a certain specific events. For example, major televised sports events such as FIFA World Cup, Tennis Grand Slams etc. attract plenty of betting activity and hence bookies are sure that they’d be able to get maximum turnover from these events. Football betting in particular is a billion-dollar industry! Hence, these online bookies do aggressive television and press advertising for these events, giving an extra push to their matched free bet offers.

Bookies also offer such free bets on less popular events, in order to generate buzz around them. All such offers are normally event and time specific in nature.

Conditions associated with matched free bets

There are normally time limits placed on the duration for which these matched free bets would remain valid.
In the event that the bet turns out to be a winning one, the stake amount is not included in the return. The customer’s account would show the free bet as an amount separate from the regular account balance. The expiry of the free bet would automatically remove its existence from the customer’s account details.
In most cases, a free bet made available by a sports book can’t be used on the following website areas: bingo, poker and casino. It’s because these specific areas have their own free bet offers which can’t be used interchangeably.

Furthermore, a customer who avails a matched free bet offer, is not allowed to make any withdrawals before placing a bet. He/she won’t be able to withdraw the balance that constitutes the free bet amount.
In case the free bet has been used and turns out to be a winning bet, the winnings are normally shown in the account balance, with no restrictions on their withdrawals.

january 15th 13.45
No joy with the First Round Leaders so far this year - but after a few requests I have now added my trading thoughts on Betfair markets - it went rather well on week one of doing this - here is what was sent to subscribers
Webb Simpson
20 points ew 50/1 – 45/1 or even 40/1 OK
Enthusiasm is slightly tempered due to the fact that this is the first time Simpson tees it up having lost his Father in November
Round one form here reads 2/62/24/5/7/1/32/21
He has also played first time out in the Tournament of Champions three times in Hawaii with first round form of 2/15/1
Kelly Kraft
10 points ew 125/1 – Skybet are a standout 150/1
I think Kraft has huge potential and this may well be the season it comes to fruition
He co-led at Colonial last year after round one on a tight traditional track and his best finish came @ Pebble Beach on the coastal courses with small greens
His one win on the tour came in 2015 @ Le Triomphe – where it is worth noting Gomez, Wagner and Walker all won before winning this event
Extra Notes
I have backed Kelly Kraft @ 400 on Betfair – doesn’t need much more explanation than see above!
Xander Schauffele @ 50 on Betfair seems a bit on the large side considering he won the Tour Championship and Greenbrier in the second half of last year – both on traditional par 70 courses and the latter – Old White course was also designed by Seth Raynor who designed this weeks course
Finally – I have backed a couple of 100/1 + winners in this in the past and you could model winners quite easily - Basically you are looking for older, experienced shorter hitting pro's with a couple of wins under their belt who can plot their way round the course. Also look for those players who have plenty of course experience although top past finishes is not necessarily a priority a couple of low rounds is a plus. James Hahn fits that mould having never missed a cut in six attempts and a two time winner on tour – 250 on Betfair seems on the generous side
Brian Stuard has drifted to a backable 240 win on Betfair – he fits the profile and has been 5th and 6th here before
december 14th 23.32
I have never been one to second guess the intentions of a trainer - let alone one like Gordon Elliott - but I did so twice last year with Tiger Roll in the Munster National and the 4 mile chase at the Festival when it won both pulling double - was not seemingly fancied on either occasion but the money came big and late in both cases. So tomorrow it runs in the 3m 6f Cross Country Chae at Cheltenham on ideal ground - will it take to the course - who knows but basically it will either love it or hate it - if the former is the case it will romp home - big statement but I am second guessing here. I have a feeling the horse will love it - not really bothered about its run last time out on unsuitable ground a mile short of its best and I don't think Elliott will be sending it over just for a breath of fresh air. I admit the horse owes me nothing and I think it will one day make a National horse - but it does make mistakes and I think this is part of a long term goal - 10/1 e/w for me has to be a decent wager - gulp!

november 10th 09.43
Is The Current Popularity Of Cryptocurrencies Set To Grow With Sports Betting Implementation?

For those familiar with cryptocurrencies, the thought of their implementation in sports betting isn’t much of a surprise at all. In fact, it may even be something that they have been waiting for. But how new exactly are cryptocurrencies to sports betting? Is this truly a new thing, or is the spotlight only just shining on a long-standing industry?  Here, we’re looking closely at the current popularity of cryptocurrencies, and just how this popularity could grow with sports betting implementation.
Just how popular are cryptocurrencies?
So, the first thing we should probably work out is how popular cryptocurrencies even are. Are they a big thing that you must’ve been living under a rock to miss? Or are they an up-and-coming technology that you’d be forgiven for bypassing completely? Well, the truth is that they’re a little bit of both. For those that aren’t sure what a ‘cryptocurrency’ is, this term is given to any kind of digital currency used online and is the result of the first, and most famous cryptocurrency – Bitcoin. It’s likely that that term pricked a few more ears than ‘cryptocurrency.’ This particular cryptocurrency has taken the tech world by storm, and its popularity amongst online communities is undeniable. The worth of this digital currency currently sits at over £5,600 to 1 Bitcoin at the time of writing and is still rapidly climbing, which is quite the jump from the original worth - It didn’t even reach 50p in its first year or so!
This decentralised cryptocurrency gave and still gives users access to a digital currency that isn’t run or controlled by any central authority meaning it is, essentially, self-sufficient. Every bitcoin user has a record of how every bitcoin has ever been spent, giving control back to the users as opposed to a centralised system like a bank. Miners and spenders work together to ensure that the Blockchain – the technology from which Bitcoin works – keeps running smoothly and continues to protect the transactions for each user! Beyond bitcoin, other cryptocurrencies are growing in popularity too. The likes of Litecoin, Ethereum, Monero, Ripple and more are all creeping into the cryptocurrency industry, but none with quite the popularity of Bitcoin.
What have cryptocurrencies done for sports betting so far?
Cryptocurrencies are hardly a new concept in the world of betting, but the question remains as to why they’re being used, and what they are doing for the industry currently. Betting and gambling are two industries that bring mixed reactions all over the world. While some countries have legalised the industry to an extent, that are just as many, if not more, that have made such a pastime illegal. Due to the lack of jurisdiction over cryptocurrencies, online bitcoin sportsbooks have made it possible to partake in sports betting no matter where in the world you are.
Not only do these sportsbooks make it possible to play even in those countries that have made it illegal, they also give the opportunity for bettors to place their wagers as anonymously as possible. With this anonymity, there’s no need to provide personal information, and so there is an element of safety that can’t be provided with regular fiat currency sites. Sure, it can be difficult to find an odds calculator that can work out any potential winnings when you’re using a cryptocurrency that isn’t widely accepted, and a Bet Settler is even more difficult to use, but the safety, privacy and anonymity often win out against the use of the industry’s tools. Besides, with time, who knows what the industry could start to throw at cryptocurrencies?
With cryptocurrency bets come safe wagers, anonymity, and a separation from any jurisdiction that could’ve created a barrier in the past. Players can control their money better, deposit and withdraw whenever they want to with minimal fuss, and the low cost of transactions also draw in more and more bettors. Low fees give users more incentive to place bigger bets, which ultimately helps not only keep the bitcoin sports betting industry going, but keeps Bitcoin working too!
So you might be thinking ‘but if it isn’t well-known yet, what sports can you even bet on?’ and you’ll be happy to know that the answer to that question is ‘most of them’. In fact, you’ll probably find that any sport covered by regular sportsbooks will turn up on a bitcoin one too! You can bet on soccer, eSports, basketball, tennis, volleyball, handball, baseball… The list goes on. Even niche games and specials will crop up, so it’s well worth keeping an eye out!
Could cryptocurrency popularity grow in the future through sports betting?
So we’ve established that cryptocurrencies are growing in popularity, and that the effect of cryptocurrencies on sports betting is mostly good. But now we have to look to the future – could it continue to be good? Will both industries continue to support each other?
The speed and anonymity that cryptocurrencies provide – especially with Bitcoin – is pulling in more and more of an audience with each day that passes and with the rise in worth of Bitcoins growing just as rapidly, the sports betting industry is undergoing quite the revolution. Safety and security is something that everyone searches for when it comes to online betting, so is it any wonder that people are making the switch to one of the safety and most secure ways of payment that exists today? The lack of centralised authority gives cryptocurrency sports betting room to grow and expand in a way that regular betting sites just can’t. Transactions are visible to everyone while the person behind them remains anonymous aside from their wallet code, and with the rising value in these digital coins, the value of the industry is growing day by day. Imagine how much money could circulate if more people took part!
As far as the future of cryptocurrencies in sports betting goes, it’s difficult to predict just how big it could become, though things do look promising. Once written off as a black market currency, Bitcoin was followed by risk takers and watched by the cautious, but with new regulations and a bigger community, there’s no reason why the popularity of cryptocurrencies can continue to grow, and where better to do that than within sports betting?

november 7th 10.35
Well the Cork National certainly went to plan getting the 1st and 2nd @ 20/1 with Logical Song winning with a lot in hand.
Exeter is my local track and its their big meeting of the year today - sadly the weather isn't playing ball and I can see the going changing to soft - it is absolutely hosing it down. The 3.05 looks very competitive but I think a couple of the main protagonists may well struggle if the going changes. The one that really catches my eye is Castarnie. Its form on left handed tracks when chasing over 3 miles is poor 6/P/P but on a right handed track its a different animal - 1/2/2/F/1 with the first three of those being over course and distance
Admittedly it has to defy a career high mark today but it has gone well fresh before (2nd in this race last year) and trainer Robert Walford has won with his last two runners @ 11/1 and 20/1. At around 16/1 I reckon he is a cracking each way bet
november 5th 10.31
Cork National today - the 3.15 and I love a National and I don't see why two time winner Raz de Maree is 20/1 going for the the three timer. OK the horse is now 12 but still retains quite a bit of ability and was running a good race when falling for the first time in its career in the Munster National last time out.
There are two horses running for the first time in a handicap chase - something I always take note of especially when its a valuable prize. Logical Song has only its 5th outing over fences today and is also stepped up in trip but it always saw out 3 miles over hurdles well enough and is also generally a 20/1 shot.
The other one at the bottom of the weights in Une Lavandiere - carrying just 9 10 over 3 1/2 miles in the soft should help it a lot. Again only having its 5th run over fences it was beaten into 3rd on its last run by A Sizing Network - admittedly a comfortable looking 16 lengths but now has a 21 lb pull on that one - I don't see why one horse should be 6/1 and the other 20/1
october 18th 14.09
Some of you may well have noticed I haven't updated the results page for a while - well its part of a bit of a sea change for SBI. The whole site will shortly undergo a bit of a makeover due to changes in the industry I will no longer be promoting the multitude of bookmakers plying for trade as the affiliate marketplace changes - there will just be a few banners promoting a small number of bookmakers who don't change the rules.
I have been running the paid for tipping service since December and it has become even more apparent to me where my success lies. It has become harder and harder to be successful on the two main tours and I have just been treading water. So - after a long analysis of results over the last ten years - by reducing the number of bets and concentrating on certain markets it is still possible to make a nice profit. The results I have up on the tipping results page are just those using the minor tours and the first round leader markets. In the past this wasn't really possible with so few bookmakers offering prices - but this has changed and every week all books price up the first round leader market and 90% the tour and Champions Tour - other tours are a bit hit and miss but sometimes there are enough prices on offer. Also by waiting until a Wednesday to release bets when all books are up it is so much easier to get on at decent prices.
The price for these tips will remain as it has done since December - just £10 a month or £100 for a year - payments via Paypal to
Most of the features of the site - such as betting tools will remain in place as they are well used, please bear with me as things change over slowly

october 3rd 11.59
7 Things You Did Not Know About Baseball in Japan
It might come as a surprise to many of you, that baseball could very well be Japan’s national sport. Yes, Japan – the country on the other side of the Pacific, renowned for individualistic sports such as sumo or kendo, have a rather large soft spot for America’s home-grown, back lawn sport. Many of you will probably think that it all started with America’s occupation of Japan after World War II. You’d be horribly wrong. Baseball and Japan go way, way back, before even the turn of the century.
Here are seven things you did not know about the history and evolution of America’s pastime in the land of the rising sun.
It dates back to the Meiji Restoration Era
We’re talking here about the late 19th century, around 1872 to be more precise, when an American professor, who taught in what is today Tokyo University, taught the sport to his students. Horace Wilson’s teachings very soon caught on, despite it being difficult for them to understand the rules at first. Remember, this country’s national sport is Sumo, so you can appreciate how baseball was a different animal entirely. However, they seemed to have enjoyed it. It made the rounds of the country very quickly
It was considered a type of martial art
Feudal lords at the time considered baseball an American version of a martial art sport. It was therefore trained with great discipline, every single day, rain or shine. Entire games are still, in fact, played in heavy rain and even snow!
The American League Stars influenced the creation of a Nippon LeagueIn 1934, the American League Stars visited Japan, spear-headed by none other than stellar left-handed pitcher/outfielder Babe Ruth. This was around 60 years after Horace Wilson taught the game and the American team won each and every one of the 16 games it played against the All-Nippon stars. However, this gave the Japanese on the field a chance to see where their strengths and weaknesses lay and how best to improve on them. Very soon, Japanese businessmen and sportsmen quickly put their heads together and in 1936 the first professional league was formed and the first competitive game was played. The Japanese Professional Football League (later renamed to Central League) was made up of 7 teams, 4 of which are still present to this day.
Post War to this day - Baseball swells into a multi million industry
 (baseball in Japanese) only flourished post World War II, a period which had little to no effect on the Japanese’s interest in the sport. A second league, the Pacific League, was formed and Japan now had two circuits with six clubs each. Interest and demand kept growing steadily over the years, attracting millions of people to the stands and the screens, prompting fans to drop by merchandise shops to join in the spirit with caps and little trinkets, or the more adventurous to place a wager on a favourite baseball team (which incidentally, is gaining popularity across the whole of Asia). The local Izakaya where Japanese can enjoy an after-work drink while watching their favourite team play, teems with fans on match days. This phenomenon stirs more people every year into the heady, enthusiastic mix and people are willing to spend money to watch their team live, even if it means crossing the country. This should come as no surprise – Japanese players like Ichiro Suzuki, Hideko Matsui and Hideo Nomo are currently playing in America’s top baseball league, the MLB. This fact alone speaks volumes about Japan’s current level of playing and turns the whole industry, from tickets to merchandise to baseball punting, into a highly lucrative and profitable business.
Teams are owned by multi-million companies
Baseball teams in Japan are not independent entities. They belong to major corporations, like newspapers, railway companies, even candy and meat-packing companies! The teams act as a sort of PR arm for the mother company, a bridge between the corporate and the audience
American and Japanese styles are different
This is inherent in the culture. Just as some American players could not stand playing in Japan, so did the Japanese find the American style difficult to adjust to. In America, an umpire’s word is the gospel truth while in Japan, when there’s a difficult call to make, the umpire will discuss this with other officials. Despite the number of Americans whose contribution over recent years was significant to the development of Japanese players, the style remains distinctly their own. The crowd is also more restrained. The enthusiasm is palpable, but they will not trample over each other when a ball makes it over to them. They will simply hand it over to officials who reuse it. Talk about discipline.
The High School championship is followed by millions
While in America, this will only gather a crowd of a couple of hundreds (mostly relatives of the students playing), in Japan this is broadcast nationally and the Koshien stadium in Hyogo is full during the whole tournament. It really does seem that the Japanese cannot have enough of this sport.

The future of baseball in Japan is bright. While soccer is still very popular, it is more recent and therefore lacks the historical value of baseball or the die-hard loyal fans. Seeing the crowds at stadiums sweeping from Fukuoka to Hokkaido, you’d be forgiven for thinking that baseball is, in actual fact, a native sport. Isn’t it amazing to realise how, despite a war which ruined this country’s relationship with America, baseball helped to rebuild burnt bridges between them again? A game, might we add, which ironically enough knows its home on US soil.

june 9th 13.35
Not posted on the blog for a while but next week sees one of my favourite weeks of the year with the US Open which in 25 years of betting on golf has given me with my two biggest winning weeks ever providing me with two five figure wins.
In 2008 I had Rocco Mediate in what I call the Battle of Wounded Knee where somehow Woods managed to beat him. However having backed Mediate e/w outright and at huge prices without Woods and top American with and without Woods, plus laying in running all added up to a £14k profit on the week
2012 was nearly as good - this time Michael Thompson as a massive priced first round leader followed by each way and place prices and laying in running led to a £12k week
Bizarrely then I didn't back the eventual winner on each occasion but you don't always need to with so many markets available.
I have some interesting potential picks for next weeks Erin Hills renewal and you can join for just £10 which I will also extend it to cover up to the Open Championship - so 6 weeks worth
To join - simply send £10 via
Paypal to
Skrill to
april 20th 17.22
As you probably all know I love betting on marathons and below is what I sent to subscribers on Monday, obviously the price has been cut but if you have a Ladbrokes account their 12/1 still has a bit of value in it (they still have Biwott in their list!)

Well the news is probably filtering through as Betfair have a market up and B365 have scratched him – second favourite Stanley Biwott pulled out over a week ago

My pick is Ghirmay Ghebreslassie and I have somehow managed to get £80 ew at average odds of 20/1 – on my tissue he should be in single figures

In August 2015 aged just 19 he won the World Championships in China, his next marathon was London last year where he ran a PB to finish 4th and then went om to finish 4th @ the Rio Games

In November he became the youngest ever winner of the New York marathon with the third quickest winning time ever

I admit he will have to drastically reduce his fastest time to win on Sunday – but he is still young, knows how to win and has some vital course experience – the price is wrong imo

april 8th 09.53
This race has been good to me over the last nine years having backed Comply or Die @ 40/1 Pineau de Re 50/1 and last year Rule the World 50/1 and the 3rd Vics Canvas e/w at 100/1
Some would say it is a lottery but with the easier fences these days it is not so difficult to find a horse that will give you a big run for your money at a big price
I have been backing Raz de Maree since the end of the December and now have my biggest ever position on a horse to win a race
Whilst the horse is now 12 and maybe a little old it has relatively few miles on the clock having only run in 20 chases and this season has been in the form of its life
Before Christmas it won the Cork National for the second time in its career over 3 ½ miles and then was a strong finishing 2nd to Native River in the Welsh National and that horse went on to finish a very close 3rd in the Gold Cup
Raz was due to run in the Eider Chase but I am glad he didn’t go as 4 miles in heavy ground would have taken the edge off him – instead he had a nice prep run over hurdles
He is a solid jumper – has never fallen, he has been brought down once and unseated once when hampered and at the age of 8 jumped round here to finish 8th to Pineau de Re
I have no doubt he will stay the trip as he has also been 2nd in a Midlands National
Being a small horse he is not designed to carry big weights over extreme distances so 10 9 is a nice racing weight
There has been some concern over the ground – it is likely to be good to soft but he can run on good ground having won the Cork National on good. The trainer has said the softer the better but to be honest that is only to slow the other horses down as he can be tapped for pace. One thing for sure if he jumps round and stays out of trouble he will be staying on up the very long run in as he did in the Welsh National

march 24th 15.34
The US Masters is the first of the four Majors and in theory should be the easiest to predict and therefore bet on. The same course Augusta National is used at the same time of year and the field is set relatively early. It is also the smallest sized field of the Majors with only around 90 competitors and with some ageing past winners we can immediately dismiss. If you are looking to have a bet here are some Do’s and Don’ts to help guide you 
Don’t back any player who is a debutant at Augusta National - it is a well documented fact that Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 remains the only player to win on his first appearance. It comes as no great surprise as it is a course which a player needs to know before performing well on with so many nuances it is unlike any other golf course.
Don’t bet on the Par 3 contest which takes place on the Wednesday. To put it simply the field is unknown as not all Masters contenders play and there are various past champions and honorary invitees who take part. Also and most importantly you will often find players allow their five year old sons/daughters/nephews etc to putt out hence rendering their scores null and void.
Don’t bet on the winner of the par 3 contest - not one player has won on the Wednesday and gone on to win the full title on the Sunday. Padraig Harrington has to tell himself not to play well in the par 3 contest which he has won three times recently - he then might give himself another chance at a Major.
Don’t back defending champion Danny Willett unless you think he is a player of the highest calibre. The only players to win back to back so far are - Nicklaus 65/66 Faldo 89/90 Woods 01/02 so if you don’t think he belongs in such illustrious company give him a swerve.
Don’t back players who have passed their 40th birthday - the last seventeen winners have all been in their 20’s and 30’s. The last winner in his 40’s was Mark O’Meara back in 1998 and he was only 41 and was at the peak of his career winning the Open Championship later that year
Do make sure your player made the cut at last years Masters as all the winners bar one in the last twenty years made the cut at Augusta the year before. The only player to have missed the cut was Tiger Woods in 1996 so I guess that is one exception we can accept.
Do now wait until the week of the tournament to have a bet as bookmakers will offer greater value and enhanced place terms (ie top 6 or even 7) to attract new clients
Do check the weather - not just the forecast compared with tee times as to who might get the most favourable conditions such as wind strength but also look at what the weather has been like running up to the tournament. If it has been really wet and Augusta National is playing even longer than normal then you can rule out the shorter hitters.
Do bet in running - all bookmakers will be doing this through all four days but try and wait until your player is through the 12th hole. The reasons are fairly straightforward as the all time hardest holes are the 10th followed by the 12th and then the 11th . After that tough challenge things ease down a little as the 13th is the second easiest and the 15th the easiest.
Do look closely at Hole in One betting - Odds are normally around 10/11 Yes and 10/11 No so there will probably be value on a No bet. In 2004 Chris Dimarco and 2013 Jamie Donaldson both had an ace on the 6th hole but all the others in the last 20 years have been on the 16th and usually when the pin is in its Sunday position - so you will probably have to sweat things out - last year there were three on the final day!!

february 28th 09.10
Three Upcoming Sports Events That Will Bring In The Punters
Sports betting is a popular pastime and an active interest for some people. For others, it takes a big event to draw them to a game and excite them into making a bet. Here are three upcoming sports events that are sure to bring in the punters:
WGC Match Play
Part of the PGA Tour, the WGC Match Play takes place on the 22nd -26th March 2017, held at the Austin Country Club in Texas for the second year running. The match sees 64 of the top ranked golfers from around the world competing in a part round-robin part elimination tournament. Last year's purse was $9.5 million, and was scooped up by Jason Day. The WGC Match Play brings in punters looking for an exciting golf wager. It's not always the top ranked players that win. In 2002, Kevin Sunderland, ranked 64th, took first place. 
FA Cup Chelsea Vs Manchester United
Nothing gets the European punters going like a high-profile game between two top teams who have loyal supporters throughout many countries; Manchester United and Chelsea currently sit comfortably at the top of the Premier League. The two teams will clash in the FA cup Quarter final on Monday 13th March at Stamford Bridge. According to Betstars, Manchester United are the underdogs by quite a way in this match up, and we would agree that they are going to have a difficult time overcoming the top-form Chelsea team. Still, United are known for pulling it out of the bag when it matters, and might be worth supporting if the odds are right for it.
Cheltenham Gold Cup
Anyone who is fond of horse racing is getting excited for the Cheltenham Festival, the second biggest event after the Grand National. Of particular note is the Cheltenham Gold Cup, held on the 17th March 2017. The Gold Cup is a Grade 1 National Hunt steeplechase held over 3 miles and 2 ½ furlongs, and includes 22 fences. It is the most valuable non-handicapped steeplechase in Britain, and attracts a huge audience of fans and punters. Favorites to win include Native River and Cue Card, but there are some great opportunities to scout for a decent 100/1 punt, or a viable 20/1 option.
March brings many great sporting events that are worthy of an enjoyable bet or two. Stick around to see tips and tricks from SBI.

february 7th 16.20
Those of you who have followed me for long enough know I like to find hidden course form when looking for selections to bet on – in the past it has led me to have big wins with Michael Thompson in the US Open, Oberholser and Points in the Pebble Beach Pro-Am (more on that later) and most recently Bezuidenhout in South Africa and of course our 200/1 winner Jim Renner
Hidden course form has led me to two of my three picks in Malaysia this week.
Plenty of time to get tips
Paypal £10 a month £100 a year to
Skrill £10 a month £100 a year to

january 30th 12.53
Well we came close to landing another big win on Lagergren last week - a nice place return and a bit more by trading on Betfair, here's what I wrote for subscribers
£15 ew 150/1 1/5 7 – that’s with Coral but quite a few are doing enhanced places
£10 ew 150/1 1/5 6 Boyles
£10 win 195 average Betfair
Links players thrive around Doha and Lagergren is a decent links player having finished 4th in each of the last two renewals of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship
Add in a 5th on the exposed Himmerland track last year and a 6th at Bro Hof Slott a few years back and it would appear the track in theory should suit and 30/1 for a top 6/7 finish seems pretty generous
january 13th 14.08
A quick update on the figures so far for subscribers as we are now a month into the service if you had followed all advice to the pound
Total staked £1440
Total profit £2260
ROI 56.7%
Quite pleased with that for £100 for the year or £10 a month - full results here
january 2nd 18.34
As you may have gathered from Twitter tips from SBI are now subscription only and I have already sent out the first golf bet of 2017.
Things have got off to a pretty good start with a winner @ 200/1 in the Q School - here is what I said about winner Jim Renner and Kyle Wilshire
"In the pressure cooker atmosphere it is best not to get carried away as what they are really competing for is their card but these two have a little to offer.
Both players come from Orlando and will be sleeping in their own beds which can take a certain amount of pressure off
Both have also exhibited some form in past Q Schools around the two courses used this week, in 2010 Renner gained his PGA tour card in the 6 round PGA Q School marathon. A bit more recently Wilshire gained his Canadian Tour card in the Florida section held here when 4th in April 2015"
You also get my horse racing bets where I concentrate on staying handicap chasers - we have just about broken even so far, close to being a lot better with Raz de Maree 2nd in the Welsh National @ 50/1 ew. We were also a tad unfortunate with Minella Daddy - a decent bet at 12/10/9 - sent off 9/2 favourite in the end it hit 1/5 in running before being impeded at the last by a loose horse but managing to place
Subscriptions are £100 for the year or £10 a month - payment via Paypal to
december 12th 09.03
Well what a week to start a subscription service as we bag a 200/1 comfortable winner in the Q School with Jim Renner. There are a few small golf events over the next few weeks - who knows who will price them up! But there are plenty of long distance staying chases to get stuck into including the Welsh National. I will put up a results sheet showing P&L for subscription tips over the next few days.
In the meantime if you want to join it's £100 until the end of 2017 or £10 a month - payments via Paypal to or contact me for bank transfers
december 5th 10.03
There comes a time in life when things have to change and we have to move on and do things differently. Due to a complete change in circumstances and the fact that the affiliate earnings have fallen off a cliff I can no longer do things for free. All I am asking for is £100 for my musings and ramblings until the end of 2017 - the equivalent of less than £2 a week - the cost of some Sunday papers! For that you will get the golf bets I normally put up (and the ones I keep to myself) plus any decent horse bets - bear in mind I have only put up three horses on the blog this year WON 50/1, 3rd 100/1, WON 33/1.
I am sorry it has come to this but with most bookmaker accounts now closed or limited to nothing it has to be my way forward.
If you wish to subscribe then simply send £100 via Paypal to
november 30th 14.54
Whilst there are loads of tournaments on this week I have struggled to get excited about much with many short priced favourites. Coceres has started off well in the Champions Tour Q School - lets hope maybe one of these three can emulate him
Australian PGA Championship
Jordan Zunic is a promising young player and we have had a couple of upsets in recent years in this event with big priced young Aussies winning. He was a talented amateur winning the Chinese Amateur and won the New Zealand Open soon after turning pro in March last year. He added to that victory a few months ago in a smaller Australian Tour event and has maintained a strong level of form since that win. He was 9th here last year when in a similar vein of form and I think he's overpriced £25 win 240 £25 top 5 45/1 £40 top 10 17/1
The other pick is very much left field but I have been waiting for the talented Jin Jeong to recover from injury and there have been a few hints of late. In the New South Wales Open he shot his first round in the 60's since February and then in the Australian Open made the cut for the first time since playing here two years ago! en route to a 28th. The talented young Korean won the Amateur Championship and other big events before he turned pro and won the Perth International. It has been an horrendous journey over the last few years but he has persevered and he maybe inspired back here where he led after the opening round in 2014 (and that came from a late tee time) Its speculative but worth a small crack £5 ew 750/1 £5 top 5 150/1 £10 top 10 50/1 £5 ew 250/1 FRL
Alfred Dunhill Championship
The second co-sanctioned European tour event comes from South Africa this week and Charl Schwartzel is a worthy short priced favourite. I also really like Gregory Bourdy but he is a short price considering he hasn't won for 3 1/2 years - maybe in running? Anthony Michael caught my eye at a big price considering he was 2nd here on his debut in 2010 where he led through three rounds, he has only played here once since - the following year where he opened with an 80 but his second round 68 shows he likes the course. In his last start in a co-sanctioned event he was 3rd in the Tshwane Open in February so he isn't afraid of the bigger fields. He is quite often a fast starter so I have played him in that market as well
£20 win 300 £16 ew 250/1 £10 top 5 40/1 £15 ew 125/1 FRL
november 23rd 14.53
We came close with Dubuisson last week who traded as low as 5/2 in the DP World Tour Championship and at least we got a part place payout although even that looked in doubt when he drove into the hazard on the 72nd hole - visions of Ross Fisher a few weeks ago! On the PGA tour we got in running pick Schneiderjans into a nice top 10 payout. This week is really quiet with only two bets although one is strong
World Cup of Golf
Not an event to get carried away with - I just thought that France looked a bit overpriced with Dubuisson in good form at the moment. He has picked friend and great young talent Romaine Langasque who in theory should be suited to the course having won the Amateur Championship at Carnoustie last year. They may have a point to prove with Dubuisson having overlooked more experienced players in choosing his partner. £20 ew 40/1 + £20 55 Betfair
Cape Town Open
I have had a decent bet on 2014 champion Jaco Ahlers but before going into details I would like to explain why I think he should be favourite by looking at the players around him at the top of the market.
Defending champion Brandon Stone is favourite and clearly has the pressure of defending his first title. He is in poor form having missed the cut in his last appearance in a weak South African event and having finished second to last in his last two European tour events
Christian Bezuidenhout did finally win an event when we were on recently at 33/1 - I cannot see any value in quotes of 20/1 in an event which is much stronger.
Jaques Blaauw has only won one event at home in the past three years and likewise Danie Van Tonder has only two wins in his last 111 starts at home and the last one was two and a half years ago.
So we come to Ahlers - he has won three of his last six events at home in South Africa. He has been a bit of a late developer but has won three four round events at home including this event two years ago, then the Investec Cup last year and the Zambia Open - these tend to be stronger events than the three rounders. He played well again here last year when 8th defending his title. He has the added bonus of just gaining his full European Tour card a few weeks ago so will be in a positive mood. All in all when you consider his rivals and his winning form I make him a strong bet even at the short price £75 ew 20/1 + £10 23/1 Betfair

november 18th 10.45 Sponsored Post

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Horse Racing
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American Football
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Soccer is serious business in many parts of the world. The reason soccer has major payouts, though, has less to do with the day-to-day games (which can be profitable) and more to do with the various major events. Major international events like the World Cup don't just draw in vistors from around the world, but they also draw in a fantastic amount of money when betting. If you play the long odds on a team that actually goes the distance, you'll make more money than you can imagine. It's never a sure thing, of course, but soccer definitely pulls in the big money.

For all the issues revolving around combat sports, nothing gets people to part with their money faster than boxing. Boxing's big money events have multi-million dollar purses, and it often seems like more money is bet than the fighters can ever hope to make. Boxing features huge payouts because of the way odds work - there's money to be made not be figuring out who will win, but by figuring out the how and the win. It's easy to part with your money if you aren't familiar with the sport, but a good bit of research and a gut feeling can make you money.

There are many sports out there than can lead to major payouts. While most people will never get that giant jackpot, there's enough money changing hands that anyone can end up a winner. If you want to
november 18th 08.55
I have been doing this blog and website for many years now - why do I do it - well to make people a few quid, share my knowledge and have a bit of fun along the way and I hope I have done that. I can't remember the last time I put anything personal on here but yesterday was one of those days I will remember that prove to me we can all fight. I back golfers to win money but I am realistic that in the lower echelons of the game it is tough. This week I bet on Richard McEvoy at the Q School and yesterday saw the fall down the leaderboard from comfortably retaining his card to struggling for his livelihood - and boy did he have to fight. To me it was a few quid - to him it meant he could support his family for another year and thats something we often forget - there is a world of difference between him and the big names in the sport.
On a more personal note I have lost a lot this year and yesterday thought I was losing my dear old lurcher who was struck down by pancreatitis. Now I know she isn't out of the woods yet but again - boy did she fight. The brave old soul was telling me she isn't about to leave me just yet. So there we have it - everything is worth fighting for and anything is possible even in the darkest of times
Thanks for reading
november 9th 14.51
Will be quite a brief write-up today as spending more and more time on the staying chasers at the moment!
Manila Masters
A few of you may remember me putting up Mardan Mamat when he won this two years ago @ 200/1 - the basis of that bet was that he had a top five on the course, and had won in the Philippines at the Wack Wack course before. Richard T Lee fits the fill on both counts - his one win came at the Country Club in the Philippines in 2014, he was 2nd at the Wack Wack Club in 2013 and was 3rd on this course that year as well. His current form isn't exceptional but he may have struggled with his globetrotting although he was in contention at Crans and was 10th in the Lyoness Open on the European Tour which would read well in this field. Returning to a place he clearly feels comfortable he is worth a bet @ 100/1 £25 ew
Nedbank Golf Challenge
After a couple of frustrating weeks on the European Tour with Fisher and Manassero I have only had one bet in the Nedbank. It is purely a play on price along with the theory that Scott Hend should be suited to the course. How this big hitter, multi tournament winner can be the same price as players who rarely win is a bit odd £12.50 ew 100/1 (all I could get) + £25 win 110 Betfair
OHL Classic
One of the events on the PGA tour I enjoy betting on - mainly due to success in the past as the winners are generally easier to profile. Mayakoba suits the shorter hitting older player with form at certain other similar courses
Past champion Johnson Wagner has a few other good finishes here including an 8th last year. He also has a victory at similar Waialae and is definitely a horses for courses player. The fact that he has three top five finishes in his last six starts including a 2nd on his penultimate start so to me he is a no brainer bet this week £5 ew 66/1 + £50 win 70 Betfair + £50 top 5 12/1
Fabian Gomez might not have brilliant course form but he has wins at Waialae and Southwind - both important correlating courses Overall he has a great winning strike rate and is overpriced at three figures £25 ew 125/1
I will also have a bet in the first round leader market - whilst I don't think there is any value in Shaun Stefani in the outright market he has kicked off here in two visits with a 65 and 66 to lie tied 1st and t7th - in the latter he was one shot behind six players. He led at Southwind last year and shot a pair of 66's last week to show he is in the mood to go low £20 ew 80/1
november 6th 08.36
Its the turn of Cork today to have its National - Gordon Elliot has been farming these big staying handicap chases of late but I don’t really fancy any of his runners for this, and whilst most of the winners of the Cork National have been young I can still see 11 year old As de Pique running a big race. Two years ago Vics Canvas won this as an 11 year old and As de Pique has a similar profile with not many miles on the clock – he didn’t really start racing til 18 months ago.
Last years winner Tulsa Jack and the 2008 winner both won the Byrne Marquees Handicap Chase at Gowran which As de Pique won last time out
The key to the selection is the ground and he is a much better horse on good ground – his form on this ground reads 2/1/1/UR/2/3/1/4 – he placed or won in every race and I can forgive the unseated rider as his rider lost his irons
Whist the trip is 2 ½ furlongs further than he has won over before he has won both his races over an extended three miles and always seems to be staying on at the end 12/1 each way
november 2nd 11.59
I think Ross Fisher and the 72nd hole at Sheshan will haunt me for a while - thats twice now! Anyway - onto this week - not much interest from me before the kick off so keep an eye on Twitter for in running bets.
Turkish Airlines Open
Just as we get used to a course they change it again - this time its the Peter Thompson designed Carya course - apparently he has created a heathland style course reminiscent of Walton Heath, Sunningdale or even Wentworth - by planting one million heathers - we shall see. Of course we have plenty of Wentworth form but as for the other two we have to look at US Open and Open qualifying for any wothwhile course form. Gregory Bourdy may be worth a bet due to the fact he has been 1st and 3rd at Walton Heath in recent years and four times has made it to the US Open via Sunningdale. As a four time winner on tour he knows how to get the job done and though his recent form doesn't look great over the past three months he leads the total driving and ball striking stats on tour - that could be key this week £11 ew 90/1 + £25 ew 80/1
If this is to be compared to Wentworth then I feel obliged to have a small bet on Matteo Manassero. Another player with four tour wins, I think we often forget he is still only 23 and has somewhat lost his way but at 175/1 he has to be worth a small punt in a reduced field lacking some top names £20 ew + £10 230 Betfair
Shriners Hospitals for Children Open
Just a couple of bets from an interesting angle that may well not pan out! Seven of the last winners of this event were recording their first PGA tour win and until young Kaufman came along last year the past nine winners were aged from 26 to 32. One interesting little snippet is that the last two winners had both won at the Victoria National course on the tour.
This is why I was drawn to Seamus Power who is the right age and won at Victoria National this year (beating last weeks winner Cody Gribble down the stretch - surely inspiration there!) All of the last ten winners have been American bar one - Martin Laird who played his college golf in the States and then stayed there - much the same as Power. He showed up well for two rounds last week and can only have learnt from the experience £20 ew 200/1 + £5 250 Betfair
Greg Owen doesn't fit the age criteria but did win that event in 2014. His fine tied 2nd last week will go a long way to securing his status on tour which is only conditional and whilst his course form is patchy he has shot some low rounds around Summerlin £25 ew 150/1 + £10 240 average
LPGA Japan Classic
A rare foray into the ladies golf where the LPGA players take on the Japanese regulars and there may well be an upset like last year where local tour players finished 1st and tied 2nd. Ji-Hee Lee was the player who was tied 2nd last year albeit on a different course and this year is 3rd on the local money list with two wins and two runner-up slots - including last week. I just think there is a bit of value in the 100/1 price tag £20 ew
october 26th 11.58
The HSBC Champions event has fond memories for me with Yang giving me one of my biggest ever payouts a few years ago and managing to trade Fisher at 1.01 as well - although a win would have been preferable!
Ross Fisher is on my team this week as he comes here in superb form with 2nd place finishes in both the Dunhill Links and European Open and I think he can be forgiven a rather lacklustre effort in the British Masters after coming close to victory in consecutive events. He finished 3rd in this last year when in poor form adding to a strong history of form in China - one word of warning - be prepared to trade on the back nine on Sunday if in contention! £30 ew 100/1 + £15 100 Betfair
My other pick is Alex Levy who is also in terrific form with recent finishes of 7/1/c/4 and who returns to a country where he always seems to play well. In eight starts in China he has been 1/2/3/4 and states that the courses simply suit his game. He played here in 2014 and after a slow start played as well as anyone to climb to 14th so this course suits his eye as well. Admittedly the weather forecast doesn't look great which might not necessarily suit Levy but everybody has to cope and the prices were just too big. £25 ew 100/1 + £20 110 + £20 ew 125/1
On the PGA Tour we have the Sandersons Farms Championship which is always a weak field "opposite" event and is played for the third time at the Jackson course. The last two winners have similar profiles in that they were 26 and 28, had come off the tour and the key stat was that they both hit a lot of GIR on the week. I trawled through the field and came up with 26 year old JJ Spaun who won the Canadian Tour order of merit in 2014 and continued that fine form onto the tour last season. He had a win and two runner-up slots as well as four other top tens to easily secure his PGA tour card. The key to his success were his GIR stats finishing 2nd on that tour in that category. One thing I found noteworthy was that his win came at Fox Den - a course where hitting greens is important. Last years winner Malnati has won at Fox Den and Kizzire who finished 4th in this won at Fox Den last year. Take the hints and have a decent bet £50 ew 80/1
october 25th 15.35
I will quickly get out of the way the two events that start early tomorrow (Wednesday) morning
Sun Sibaya Challenge
I will take a chance on young Jared Harvey who hasn't really fulfilled the potential when winning the South African amateur strokeplay around this weeks course Mt Edgecombe back in 2011. That week he beat the likes of Stone, Porteous and even Levy so obvioulsy has the game. He showed a decent enough level of form when 7th a couple weeks ago and hope the course will inspire him this week £20 ew 70/1
Ras Al Khaimah Golf Challenge
The Challenge tour moves to the UAE this week and I will chance another young South African Thriston Lawrence although his current level of form is poor. The reason for picking him is that last year he won the Mena Golf Tour order of merit - a local tour around the Middle East and Africa although the level of form is pretty poor. Lawrence won one event last year on that tour and that was named the Ras Al Khaimah Golf Challenge although it was played on a different course. He should have positive memories of the area and does have a 2nd on the Challenge Tour earlier this year despite being twelve shots behind winner Detry! £10 win 485/1 £15 top 5 80/1
october 19th 15.03
Nice to get another winner on board last week in South Africa - so lets hope we can keep the good run going
CIMB Classic
It's not often I can see value in short priced golfers but this week Ryan Moore appeals in a big way. He is certainly in as good shape as anyone else at the top of the market and comes to a course where he won back to back - what is there not to like? He has shown over the years that he plays the same courses well year in year out and especially at this time of year £75 ew 16/1
Alex Cejka seems like a big price to me - he fired a pair of 66's here last year to finish 17th on his course debut and if you go back far enough he obviously likes golf in Malaysia having finished 2nd and 3rd in the Malaysian Open. He has had a very consistent season and took a break after the Olympics returning to play in Macau last week so will already be acclimatised to conditions. He is well known for getting off to fast starts so I have backed him in that market as well £15 win 210 £25 top 5 25/1, £15 ew 80/1 FRL
Portugal Masters
I admit to struggling to find much for this weeks European tour event so will probably end up backing in running but a couple looked worth a bet. Adrian Otaegui has come close a couple of times to his first pro win in the past five months with a 3rd in Denmark and 2nd in Austria. He shot a solid 63 in the opening round in 2014 in the rain shortened event and a pair of 67's in 2015 so can certainly go low on the course £30 ew 150/1
Stuart Manley has a fondness for Portugal - maybe something to do with being inspired by Wales winning the World Cup of Golf at this venue. I doubt he will have a really top finish but is well worth backing in the first round leader market. In ten starts in mainland Portugal he led here on his first start in 2008 and has been 1st, 3rd and 4th after round one in events at Estoril. £15 ew 160/1 average
Vodacom Origins Euphoria
Justin Harding has five wins on this tour in just over 150 starts including one at the beginning of this month. He was 7th on his debut and only start here in 2014 when leading after round one. Three of his five wins have come in these Vodacom Origins events so it seems to be his level £8 ew 50/1 £25 win 50/1
october 12th 22.19
Safeway Open
Sometimes you stare at a price and can't quite believe it and in a strange way it detracts from having a bigger bet than you should. With James Hahn this week I am definitely more in the Betfred camp who go 55/1.Courses I would associate with Silverado are unsurprisingly another classic Californian course Riviera and Las Colinas home of the Byron Nelson and Hahn definitely has form at both venues. He now has two wins in the last twenty months although he can be a bit hit and miss. He finished 5th in his penultimate start in the playoffsand will be right at home in Northern California where he grew up. His course form isn't that bad in his two starts with a few low rounds including the lowest on day two last year, which is not unusual for him - he can swing from low to high with his scores. Maybe all this is built into his price but in my eyes it is all wrong £25 ew 150/1, £10 win 125/1, £20 top 5 25/1, £10 ew 100/1 FRL
My only other bet is Jhonattan Vegas who has been incredibly consistent since his win in Canada with all cuts made. He played here last year on a sponsors exemption having lost his card and in a way it kickstarted his revival from injury having finished 10th and 4th a few weeks later. His first PGA win came in California so is clearly at home in ths state and is well worth having on side this week £40 ew 66/1
october 12th 14.36
Well I certainly love a National even more now as Tiger Roll absolutely hosed up at Limerick at 33/1. Anyway - back to the golf!
Macau Open
I wasn't going to get involved but one player caught my eye, the Macau course is certainly a horses for courses place and Rashid Khan was 8th on his debut last year. Form at Delhi holds up well here and the Indian native has finishes of 1/2/4/6 in the last 3 years there. His other Asian win was at the Alpine course in Thailand where Hend won the year before and Hend has finished 6/1/2/1 in Macau in the last four years. On first glance it doesn't look like he has played a great deal but he has been playing superbly on the Indian tour in the last 6 weeks finishing 1/4/1. Well worth a bet to upset some of the big boys £30 ew 70/1
British Masters
Always a bit tough using a course that has only been used once before for a very different WGC event ten years ago so haven't gone mad this week
Romain Wattell caught my eye last week - opening with a 78 on the tough Carnoustie course he was more or less last but three rounds of 66/68/66 saw him climb to an impressive 18th. Like Hatton the young Frenchman has often promised a breakthrough win and a reapeat of his 4th at Wentworth earlier this year should see him go close £30 ew 100/1 + £10 100 Betfair
Another Frenchman Gregory Havret did something very similar last week - opening with a 76 at Carnoustie he too climbed to 18th for his best ever finish at the Dunhill Links. Add that to a 7th at the European Open the week before then he is clearly in good form. He can often string a few good finishes together so £25 ew 140/1 + £10 160 Betfair
Final bet on price alone is Kiradech Aphibarnrat who now has three wins on the European Tour in the past few years and it's not like he has had a bad year so far with the highlights being 15th in the Masters and a pair of fifth places at the BMW International and the Olympics. Just a play on the price really £20 ew 100/1 + £5 95
october 9th 11.31
Well you all know I love a National!! TBH I may well be barking up the wrong tree but Tiger Roll caught my eye for the Munster National 4.40 Limerick today.
It may seem odd to back the outsider of the field but in Tiger Roll Gordon Elliott could well have an unexposed horse
The last ten runnings of this race have gone to horses aged 6 – 8 and those at the higher end of the weights fare better so it fits those trends.
Tiger Roll obviously has a bit of class about it having won the Triumph Hurdle at the Festival in 2014.
Switched to chasing earlier this year he won his first two and has been kept busy ever since but this is the first time he has been run in a handicap.
In his last three runs over around 2 ½ miles he has been staying on suggesting a step up in trip could well be in his favour.
Originally I was bemused by the jockey booking but Miss O’Neill won the Kerry National a few weeks ago for the same connections on Wrath of Titans who was backed into 7/1 on the day from 16/1. Elliott did a similar thing earlier this year putting an unheralded claimer on Lord Scoundrel when it won the Galway Plate
At 33/1 e/w doesn't take a lot to find out!
october 6th 07.20
With the Tour Championship cancelled we only have bets in two other events! Starting with the Alfred Dunhill Links
Mikko Ilonen - when I saw the opening price I thought it was a rick but then other books followed suit so it was time to dive in. Admittedly his record in the event is poor but he is a fine links player - maybe he doesn't like the pro-am format. His current form isn't too bad just not put 4 rds together of late, he led the French Open at the cut, was 7th at the Olympics with a round to go and was 4th at Crans with a round to go and is putting really well. It was merely a scramble to get on what I could £20 ew 550/1 average £5 ew 250/1 FRL £5 top 10 40/1 £2.50 ew top Cont Euro 100/1
Chris Stroud came here last year as a tournament invite and on the back of four missed cuts on the PGA tour managed to finish 2nd. He is in equally poor form this time around but has shown in his career he plays the same courses well year in year out £20 ew 250/1 average £5 win 250 Betfair
Matthew Southgate has been talking up his game for a while now and this could be the venue when it all comes together. A solid links player who was 12th in the Open and won the St Andrews Links Trophy as an amateur. I have a feeling his happy demeanour on the golf course will also be well suited to the pro-am format £20 ew 150/1 £40 200 Betfair
Last man up is Florian Fritsch who has been in good form of late as he tries to secure his card in what will always be a limited number of events as he won't get on a plane. His 7th in Crans was a repeat of last years finish whilst he seemed to feel the pressure early on in the final round in Germany playing alongside Kaymer and Wiesberger before rallying to finish 7th. His 19th place here last year was pretty good and it may have escaped some people he was actually 2nd with a round to go £20 win 200 £40 top 10 11.5/1
I make no excuses for backing Esteban Toledo again in the Champions Tour Toshiba Classic as in 94 starts he has four wins and a 10.6% top 5 strike rate. His last two wins have been in California and Florida so he seems to like the beach environment and he has some solid form around here with a best of 6th in three attempts £20 ew 150/1
october 5th 14.25
It's been a pretty good couple of weeks and this week is really busy so will kick off with a look at the events which start later today
Fiji International
A strange event with a couple of Americans playing and it's co-sanctioned by the European Tour yet virtually no players have made the trip from Europe, basically it's a glorified Australian Tour event. I will have a bet on rank outsider Peter A Wilson who managed to finish 8th here last year. The basis of the bet is that Wilson seems to play his best at this time of year having come back from his "winter" break with a few starts under his belt. In 160 starts he has one win, 3.1% top 5 rate and 8.1% top 10. When you look at his October starts we find that win a 13.3% top 5 and 33.3% top 10. His two starts at the New Caldeonia event have been 42nd followed by an 8th and 43rd followed by his win, last time out he was 15th in that event after a great first three rounds. Don't get me wrong - he is not top class but this event is pretty poor £10 ew 400/1 £10 top 5 80/1 £20 top 10 33/1
Indonesian Masters
Looking back at past results at Royale Jakarta the one thing that stands out is that players with high GIR stats always lead the way so it seems prudent to back the player who leads that category on the Asian Tour. Malcolm Kokocinski hits 75% of greens and was 4th last time out in Korea £15 ew 125/1
LPGA Taiwan Fubon Championship
Local players seem to play well in Taiwan with Lu winning on the Asian Tour last week in his homeland for the third time. Ssu-Chia Chang is a young player with lots of potential although she has struggled on the main tour this year - a return home could well play dividends. She won in China on the LET in 2014 as an amateur and was 2nd and 4th in that country on that tour last year. In 2013 and 2014 she won three times in Taiwan as an amateur on the Ladies Asian Tour. Two years ago she opened with a 66 here to lie 3rd before fading to 15th so can clearly play the course. I think she may surprise this week £10 ew 400/1
september 21st 20.35
Apologies - run out of time this week so a very quick rundown of bets
Tour Championship
Ryan Moore - don't like limited field events but Moore seems a big price for a player that won again not a long time ago and has a pair of top tens in two of the play-off events. Course form of 9th and 3rd further boosts confidence £25 ew 50/1
Porsche European Open
The course is saturated and big hitters came to the fore last year so should do again. They don't come much bigger than Lucas Bjerregaard who was 5th here last year. He is slowly coming into form and often plays the same courses well £30 ew 60/1 £15 win 70 £25 top 5 12/1
I will stick with Jens Fahrbring again at a big price as he played quite well again last week. Whilst he didn't play here last year he did play the course for three years on the Challenge Tour and finished 6th and 12th in the last two renewals £15 ew 400/1 £20 win 660 £10 top 10 40/1
With wins for Molinari and Luiten in recent weeks in home events I was keen to get a home player on side and Bernd Ritthammer caught my eye. He has won twice on the Challenge Tour this season including last time out. Whilst he missed the cut last year after a promising opening round he was 3rd here on the lower tour in 2014. £6.50 ew 150/1 6 places £10 ew 100/1 £15 155 average
Nationwide Childrens Hospital Open
This event has been part of the play-off series for the past three years and the winners have all exhibited two attributes - you have to be long and make plenty of birdies. Grayson Murray ranks 6th for Driving Distance and 1st for Birdies - he also tops the all round stats much like last years winner Justin Thomas. Whilst he hasn't yet won on tour he seems to knock on the door most weeks £30 ew 50/1
september 14th 14.29
Concentrating on the Italian Open this week although I may have something for the Boise Open later.
Whilst the Italian Open moves around a bit it does generally get played on similar fiddly parkland tracks where plenty of birdies are required and where multiple winners are commonplace.
Julien Quesne stood out like a sore thumb to me at the early prices as a past winner of the event and he often gives strong signals that he is about to win so his 5th last time out is an encouraging sign. He ranks 4th on tour for birdies over the last three months so the 90/1 had to be snapped up £40 ew 1/4 6
Joakim Lagergren ranks third in that same category and I was really impressed by the way he played in Denmark (until the drive at the 72nd hole!) but he did enough to secure his card. Last year he closed with a 63 around the Milano course to finish 3rd and people have overlooked the fact that he was 2nd and one shot behind in the Italian Open in 2013 before fading - he is a much better player now. That 63 proves he can go low here and has got off to a couple of fast starts in recent weeks - joint leading in Denmark and 2nd in the KLM last week so I have included a bet in that market as well. £25 ew 125/1 £15 ew 100/1 FRL
Sticking with the birdie stat Brandon Stone lies 6th in that category and whilst his form in some of the bigger events has been poor he is well capable in this grade. A 5th place in the French Open, 10th last week and a string of excellent efforts earlier in the year including a win in his home Open show the youngster is more than capable. South Africans have a pretty good record in this event mainly because the courses are similar to the parkland courses they play at home. Earlier in the year he was going off at much shorter prices and has to be backed this week £30 ew 80/1
One play from "leftfield" is Jens Fahbring who has had a torrid time of it on the main tour this year but finally earnt some money last week. He was 3rd here last year and maybe he can produce another great effort to regain his card - at the price he is worth a poke £10 ew 400/1 + £20 1000 Betfair
september 7th 23.29
A quick rundown of this weeks limited bets
KLM Open
Fabrizio Zanotti - whilst it's a new course it is still a typical linksy course for the KLM Open and I wwant to go with a player who has history in this event and Zanotti has been 2nd and 4th n this event on two different courses so shouldn't be phased this week. He can certainly play links courses as demonstrated here and a fine 2nd at Royal Portrush a few years back. He has been in fine form for a while and may well draw inspiration from fellow Paraguayan Franco winning on the Champions Tour on Sunday. £15 ew 66/1 6 places £35 ew 66/1 5 places £20 win 70 Betfair
Alex Levy - been troubled with injury this year but if last weeks result is anything to go by he is back. He finished 18th at Crans on a track he had always missed the cut.Not sure how he will take to the course but he is too big a price £30 ew 70/1
DAP Championship
Always tricky when a new course is used but it's time to use a few little tactics which sometimes pay off!
Adam Svensson hasn't kicked on this season but he has a great asset this week in his caddie who grew up on this golf course and will have vital inside information £15 ew 150/1 £15 top 10 12/1
For Ryan Armour you couldn't have a more local game and it may well be conjecture but I would be surprised if he hasn't played Canterbury before. The last time he played close to home he was 4th in the Cleveland Open so there is definitely a bit of historical evidence. He finally won on tour this year just before his 40th birthday and a fairly consistent season means he already has a PGA tour card locked up so won't have the pressure of most players £20 ew 200/1 £20 top 10 20/1
august 31st 13.52
A bit short on time atm so just this weeks bets for now - hopefully preview later
Omega European Masters
Thongchai Jaidee £60 win only 42 Betfair
Tommy Fleetwood £30 ew 66/1 + £25 80 Betfair
Paul Peterson £30 win 460 Betfair £25 top 5 42 Betfair
YE Yang £10 ew FRL 100/1
Deutsche Bank Championship
Sean O'Hair £30 ew 110/1
Steve Stricker £35 200 Betfair
Ryan Palmer FRL £15 ew 100/1
august 24th 14.07
This week the European Tour is in Denmark for the very well supported Made in Denmark tournament. My first bet was struck on Sunday afternoon where clearly the early layer has no idea who Sebastian Cappelen is. A bit odd he returns home when he is so close to the top 25 on the tour but I guess it shows his intention and I got £20 @ 600
My main bet of the week is David Lipsky as this seems to be his time of the year - he hit form in August last year culminating in a 3rd in the Italian Open and the year before won the European Masters on the back of some solid performances. He was 6th last week in the Czech Masters with a brilliant putting performance which could be the key stat this week and he has been top fifteen in both renewals around Himmerland £60 ew 66/1
The home contingent seem to turn it on for their home event and there are three players who have won on this course on the Nordic Tour - Olesen is one and in 2013 both Jensen and Winther won. Jensen was 7th here a couple of years ago showing his liking for the course and opened with a 67 last year. He upped his game last time he played in Scandinavia finishing 2nd in the Nordea Masters £10 win 200 £25 top 10 14/1 £20 top 5 33/1 £10 ew FRL 125/1
Jeff Winther also has a 2nd place on tour earlier in the season in the Tshwane Open but hasn't kicked on since but returning to a course he has done well on before could inspire him in front of his home fans. He played well for the first two rounds last week before fading and he could be this weeks surprise Danish player £10 win 410 £15 top 5 66/1 £20 top 10 23/1 average

august 17th 09.51
Kirwa gave us a great run for our money in the marathon taking 2nd and trading as low as 2.1 for the win. In running play Billy Mayfair also fnished 2nd @ 100/1 and with recent successes with Rodgers and Hurley winning - beginning to wonder if in play betting is best!!! Anyway - just a handful of bets before the off this week.
In the Womens Olympics I think Catriona Matthew stands a good chance of emulating Rose as she too has said for a long time how proud she would be to represent her country. The course suggests a good links game is required which she certainly has with numerous wins on links courses over her long career. She also comes here in good form with a 5th in the British Open last time out. Add in the fact that she won a two round LPGA event here in Rio a few years ago and I think we have a half decent bet £20 ew 80/1 1/4 5 + £10 ew 80/1 1/3 3
The European tour has the Czech Masters this week and it can boast a stronger field than normal as players hope to climb the Ryder Cup points list. My sole pick before the off Pelle Edberg doesn't have a hope in hell of making the team and whilst he has yet to win on tour he does have a habit of placing regularly on the same courses. The fact he was 2nd here last year means the early 90/100 was certainly value on the place part £40 ew 100/1
The PGA tour is in North Carolina for the Wyndham Championship where players are doing battle to make the play-offs. Bud Cauley still needs a good result but he has shown he can turn it on when the going gets tough. Despite suffering from numerous injuries and playing on medical exemptions he has also played some fine golf to keep his playing rights. He was 4th earlier in the year at the Byron Nelson and I was impressed with his 8th last week at Deere Run where he has never played well before but he struck the ball beautifully. He was 3rd here at Sedgefield back in 2012 and whilst he hasn't played well here since he hasn't been as fit or in form £30 ew 100/1
One last bet - Andrew Loupe seems to love a fast start - he has been joint leader the last two weeks - indeed he has been joint leader a stunning four times in twenty starts this year! Add in a 4th here after round one in 2014 and he has to be worth a small crack to get off to a flyer again £10 ew 150/1 FRL

august 13th 14.52
Right - as promised my big bet for the Olympic Womens Marathon which takes place tomorrow. I must admit this is a very confident each way bet - maybe not as strong as Ndereba back in 2007 but not far off!
When I look at these Championship marathons I look for an athlete who is capable of running the time needed to win, who has a very consistent marathon record with plenty of wins and places and one who has shown form in Championship marathons before which are run in warmer weather than the normal marathon majors.
In my mind Eunice Kirwa fits the bill in all departments - she has run a total off thirteen marathons finishing 1/1/2/2/3/5/DNF/1/1/1/1/3/1. Admittedly some of these were in lower key races but she was 3rd in last years World Championship only four seconds behind Dibaba and ahead of London marathon winner Sumgong who has been well punted. She has also won the Asian Games marathon. She also runs a lot of half marathons and showed she is in good form this season by recording her fastest ever time and in fact she has won her last five half marathons. I could go into lots of reasons as to why I wouldn't want to back anyone else but basically I have reservations about all of them especially Dibaba who has been poor in two runs this season.
The clinching fact for me is that Kirwa ran a lot of races in Brazil earlier in her career and her record in the Rio Half Marathon reads 1/1/1/2 - she will obviously have very good memories of running on these roads.
I managed to get some early 10/1 for the win and have topped up at 9/1 and also managed to get some 5/2, 9/4 and 2/1 about the podium finish - basically amounting to £1200 on the win and £300 on the podium
The best way to back her now is probably 9/1 each way 1/4 3 available with Bet365 and Boyles if you can get on but quite a few books are 9/1 win and 2/1 podium - such as Paddy Power, Unibet, Netbet etc
august 10th 14.46
A weak looking John Deere Classic plays alongside the Olympics this week and a couple are worthy of a bet.
Scott Brown is certainly a horses for courses player - constantly playing the same venues well year in year out on both the main tour and tour. If you can forgive him last years missed cut then past performances of 7/22/5 show he can play this place well including shooting a 61. His best finish of the year was again in Puerto Rico when 5th - the scene of his PGA tour win, but he was also 7th at Innisbrook which correlates well to this track as four players have won both events. Back to a bit of form with his best ever finish at River Highlands last time out he is worth a bet this week £40 ew 80/1 + £15 90 Betfair
Bit of a stab in the dark on Eric Axley a player plagued by injury in recent years he has finally found his form on the tour - 7th and 4th last two starts and he has been 4th here a few years ago. His one PGA tour came at Lacantera a while ago where Zach Johnson was a standing dish - much as he has been around Deere Run in recent years. £20 ew 200/1 £20 top 10 22/1 average Betfair £35 win 320 average Betfair
Last bet in the first round leader market on local player Luke Guthrie who has a solid record around here and twice been 3rd after the first day, first to tee off tomorrow is worth a close look £15 ew 100/1
august 10th 11.14
My apologies for a lack of previews the last couple of weeks - server issues meant I couldn't post anything but hope some of you followed on Twitter. It has been an OK couple of weeks with in play bet Rodgers grabbing a place last week and Boonma the same the week before at 200/1. I don't know what it is about golf in Thailand but if I saved all my bets for events in that country I would have retired by now!
The Olympics takes centre stage this week and golf makes a long awaited return and it is very difficult to weigh up what will happen this week. With so many top names not playing and the fact that I don't think some players will be overly focused (Matt Kuchar didn't even know what the format was!!) I have gone for a couple of players in good form who could well raise their game.
I will take a chance on two players from Chinese Taipei - CT Pan has already shown he can compete for his country - silver medal at the Asian Games in 2006 when only 15 and he went one better when taking gold in 2014 - fields were weak compared to this week and mainly amateurs but I think it proves something. The former world amateur number one won twice on the Canadian Tour last year after turning pro earning him his tour where he has been incredibly consistent already securing his PGA tour card for next season. £15 win 270 £35 top 5 22/1
Wen Tang Lin makes up the other half of the pairing and I think he is hugely overpriced based on recent form in Asia coming close to winning in Taiwan and Thailand. In the past he has won the Hong Kong Open so can do it on the bigger stage and he has performed with huge credit on similar tracks in Asia £15 win 430 £10 top 5 50/1 £25 top 10 16/1
Just one extra bet - the course may well resemble another Hanse design Castle Stuart and young Italian Matteo Manassero was 3rd there a few weeks back - and he seems a little bit overpriced on Betfair £20 140 Betfair
july 27th 14.41
I will admit the US PGA Championship is my least favourite of all the Majors as it just seems like a glorified PGA event but I have had a couple of bets on players who I think were a bit overpriced.
Steve Stricker jumped off the page at three figures for a couple of reasons, this is probably the best chance of a Major victory even if he is pushing fifty! Three times he has finished 7th in this Major so take the hint and go for the seven place option. His form in limited starts this year is not too shabby as in just twelve starts he has a 2nd at the St Jude, 7th at Innisbrook and was recently 4th at the Open. Admittedly he was a country mile behind the main two protagonists but he had the worse side of the draw and was only undone on the tricky Friday by one bad hole £50 ew 125/1 1/5 7 + £6 ew 66/1 top US
Kevin Streelman was in good form before a missed cut in Canada with finishes of 8th, 13th (US Open) and 12th and I am prepared to forgive his last start. He has strong family ties to New Jersey and has some form at the Barclays at Ridgewood having been 3rd and 4th there in the past. What is worth noting is that Ridgewood is another classic Tillinghast course. £10 ew 250/1 1/5 7 + £15 370 Betfair
Last bet is in the first round leader market with Scott Piercy who finished 2nd at both the US Open and WGC Bridgestone. If you take out 2014 when he was coming back from injury he has been 6th, 5th and 3rd after the opening round in this event and in his last forty starts he has led or co-led three times £12.50 ew 100/1 1/4 6 + £3 150 Betfair
july 20th 19.56
The less said about last weeks bets the better - but it was one helluva final round at the Open - just a quick rundown of this weeks bets
Canadian Open - Emiliano Grillo - £50 ew 40/1 - maybe a bit short but he is playing brilliantly tee to green - putter costing him but should be buoyed by a return Glen Abbey where he got in last year via a top ten finish at the Barbasol and led after round one
Senior Open - early prices were wrong for Jesper Parnevik £35 ew 55/1 + £30 55 Betfair - made all ten cuts in the Open before his DQ in the Mark Roe scorecard fiasco this included 2nd Turnberry, 2nd Troon, 4th Birkdale, 9th Lytham and 10th here at Carnoustie. Already won on Champions Tour this year, plus of course we have the Swedish inspiration from Stenson - what's not to like!
Utah Championship - Richy Werenski - a few missed cuts has seen the man 2nd on the money list pushed out to 125/1 £20 ew. Already won at Thornblade this year where there is good correlation and second at both El Bosque and Cartagena at altitude and guess what we have this week in Utah?! He was down the field last year here but did post good rounds in two and three - price is a bit wrong in my opinion
july 12th 17.04
We came close last week with Bozzelli making into a four man playoff after a brilliant finish but even the home support couldn't help him down the first play-off hole!
Onto what is arguably one of my favourite weeks of the year - Open Championship week and I have gone for a range of bets - but as most of you know I look for value down the field. My first bet was actually placed last week when Padraig Harrington looked to be having a good week on the links at the Scottish Open although he faded a little over the weekend. Weirdly Betfred pushed him out to 200/1 (1/4 6) and I jumped in with £40 ew. His history in the Open is well documented with a pair of victories he is a solid links player and whilst the last couple of years have been quiet for him he did win the Honda Classic on the PGA tour last season. He is still 125/1 and to be honest that is still very fair - he means business this week with his "trick cyclist" in tow!
Thinking about the Honda Classic which Harrington has now won twice got me thinking about the fact that the last six winners at Royal Troon have all been Amrican and Hamilton, Leonard, Calcavecchia and Weiskopf have all won the Honda and here at Royal Troon - surely that can't be a coincidence? Looking at other Honda winners we have this years - Adam Scott (great Open record), Rory, Els, Price etc - so thats what led me to Matt Kuchar. He won the Honda way back in 2002 and whilst he doesn't win that often he is always up there or thereabouts. He has a best finish of only 9th in the Open in 2012 but was 2nd at Gullane in the Scottish Open last year so he can handle links golf. Its his recent form which stands out a country mile with finishes of 3/3/6/4/46/3 from the Players - that is consistent golf of the highest quality £20 win 80 Betfair, £35 ew 66/1 1/4 6, £25 ew 66/1 1/5 7, £50 top 5 16/1
The other Honda Classic winner is 2014 champion Russell Henley who catches my eye as most of his other best form seems to be on coastal windy courses - like Sea Island, Waialae. He hasn't been playing that great this season with best finishes of 5th and 7th in his penultimate start but I just have a feeling that he could be a surprise package this week although I have kept the bets on him small £8 ew 300/1, 1/5 7 £10 ew 250/1 1/4 6, £20 win 430 Betfair
Final American is a player I backed last year Robert Streb who acquitted himself well to finish 18th at St Andrews. The reason I picked him last year was that he had won at Sea Island and maybe Troon will be a better fit than St Andrews was £6 ew 400/1 1/5 7, £12.50 ew 400/1 1/4 6, £20 win 650 Betfair, £10 ew 125/1 1/4 4 Top American
I have been keeping an eye on Matteo Manassero for a while waiting for the youngster to hit form again and people seem to have forgotten he is still only 23 years old! He has started striking the ball brilliantly again of late and that became apparent when he was 3rd last week at the Scottish Open. That wasn't the first time he has shown form on the links - 4th at Royal Aberdeen in 2014, and of course he won the Amateur Championship at Formby Links. £20 ew 200/1 1/4 6, £20 win 270 Betfair
One price to me that is/was just plain wrong is Hideto Tanihara who has just won back to back in Japan in recent weeks, OK it's a weak tour but a wins a win and two together is impressive. What the compilers seem to have forgotten is that he has Open form as back in 2006 when in similar form at home he was 5th! £4 ew 600/1 1/5 7, £6 ew 500/1 1/4 7, £20 win 1000 Betfair, £25 ew top ROW 100/1 1/5 4
Final bet for this preview is a little First Round Leader bet although I may add more in this category before the off. We have seen plenty of young amateurs perform great in the early rounds of Majors over the years and I don't see why young Amateur Champion Scott Gregory can't continue the trend with a nice early tee time £10 ew 300/1 1/4 6
july 13th 15.55
I will put this little preview of this weeks other bets below the Open preview as more people will be interested in reading the above!
The Fred Olsen Challenge de Espana comes from the Tecina course in the Canaries and I cannot resist a small bet on Luis Claverie who hails from the islands and has a superb record here of with a brace of 2nds and a brace of 3rds in six starts £15 ew 125/1
I have a hunch that we may well get some inspiration by comparison from Birgir Hafthorsson this week especially as the Icelander played a lot of football in his youth before turning to be a pro-golfer. He grew up playing golf on island courses by the coast so Tecina should hold no fears for him and he showed that when 5th last year. He turned 40 just six weeks ago as well so I couldn't resist a decent punt £40 ew 100/1
There is a low key in event in Alabama in the States - the Barbasol Championship and I will go for a couple of players with home connections who played there last year. Will Wilcox was 2nd going off a 25/1 shot saying he was inspired by so many friends and family coming to watch him as he spent some his early life here. This year hasn't been a great one so far but the month of July seems to bring out the best in him - maybe it's the hot humid weather £60 ew 66/1
Blayne Barber is the other home player who was 10th last year and reserves his best form for this part of the States. He comes here in slightly better form than Wilcox and is also worth a punt £40 ew 50/1
june 29th 18.14
Well Billy Hurley III obliged a week late and thankfully I put him up in running!
A brief rundown of this weeks bets - both the Open de France and Barracuda have been kind to me in the past so lets hope last weeks return to form keeps going!
Le Golf National is a brilliant course and pick number one comes in the shape of PGA tour regular Troy Merritt who seeks to emulate the form in recent years of similar golfers Kevin Stadler and Brendan Steele. Like them he enters the week in poor form and has just the one PGA tour win to his name. We don't know if he will take to the course but as the 24th ranked player in the field he really shouldn't be the price he is £5 ew 250/1 £40 ew 200/1 £50 250 Betfair
Second pick is Robert Karlsson who ten years ago would have been vying for favouritism but he never seems to have recovered his form after a couple of years playing full time in the States. The highlights of the last couple of seasons have been a runner-up slot in last years matchplay and a 4th here two years ago. After a string of missed cuts his last two starts have been encouraging and the Betfair prices were just too big to resist £25 win 410 £15 top 5 70 average £15 top 10 24
The Barracuda Championship is again an "opposite" event played alongside the WGC event and hence has a much weaker field than a normal event.
Andres Gonzalez has a whole stack of positives about him this week, his best result last year was when 4th here and his best result in 2014 came when 3rd in the OHL Classic (another weak opposite event). His three tour wins over the years have come on courses where in his previous performance he had a top ten finish - 2009 Saskatchewan Open, 2012 Soboba Classic and 2014 Utah Classic. His aptitude for playing at altitude is backed up not only by his 4th here last year but those finishes in Utah and for good measure throw in a 2nd in Bogota on the tour. His finish last week really caught my eye as he was 12th in a better field but topped the GIR stats. He was let down by his putting but is better in that department on the West Coast. £13 ew 150/1 £32 ew 125/1
Having been through the field time and time again I just can't help have a play on Ben Martin - like so many recent winners of this event - a tour winner who comes here in the doldrums though he has been making plenty of cuts. His one tour win also came in Nevada and in his only appearance here in 2011 he was 6th - his best performance in his rookie season £40 ew 50/1
june 22nd 16.03
Just a few bets on the European Tour BMW International this week, which returns to the Jack Nicklaus Gut Larchenhof course
Pablo Larrazabal is a two time winner of this event albeit on a different course but he also led here by a couple with a round to go before folding in 2014. There is something about the last week of June he likes - with form of 1/3/29/1/4/8/1.He can also boast a playoff loss at Gleneagles on another Nicklaus course. His recent form is solid enough - he was bang in contention til the wheels came off in the last three holes in his home open and was 12th at Wentworth and reckons he is very close to a big finish - take the hints £50 ew 70/1
Jeung Hun Wang is a huge young talent and the price just seems too big for a player who won back to back on this tour recently and was 3rd last week in Thailand £25 ew 80/1
Lastly Pelle Edberg - I don't think the Swede can win but he is a regular top five finisher - one this year in Thailand and three last year - one of which came at the "Nicklaus" designed Crans course and another in Germany. He can also get off to fast starts so I have backed him there too (6th after rd 1 here in 2014) £15 ew 150/1 FRL £10 win 620 Betfair £5 top 5 inc ties 50/1 £15 top 5 80 Betfair £15 top 10 20/1 inc ties
june 14th 11.33
The US Open is undoubtedly one of my favourite golf events of the year and this year looks to be better than most with Oakmont probably playing like an absolute beast. With plenty of players likely to be out of it very early I am only going to put two players up to start with as I feel there could be plenty of opportunity in running. Whilst I have never tipped the outright winner I have enjoyed my two biggest ever paydays in golf in this event with Mediate and Michael Thompson so here goes.
Opinions are divided as to whether distance off the tee or accuracy will be key with the rough so tough - in theory the further you hit the less accurate you are and you will be hitting shots in from the rough but not have so far, the more accurate you are you will be hitting it from a long way back - so it's a bit swings and roundabouts so I have gone for one big hitter and one accurate player!
Despite having a few niggling injuries JB Holmes has been having a very consistent season - 6th at Torrey Pines and Scottsdale, 4th at the US Masters and bounced back to form with 4th at Muirfield Village and that follows a solid 2015 with a win and two runner-up slots. I don't have to tell anyone he can hit it off the tee as he consistently ranks in the top two or three on tour every year. What I liked about him also is that he may well have fond memories of the course when in 2003 as a relatively unknown amateur he was medalist in the strokeplay section of the US Amateur having shot the low round of 70 around here. I just think at the price for someone who has become a far more consistent player he is worth a crack £30 ew 100/1 1/4 6 + £20 120 Betfair.
My second pick will take a hell of a lot more explaining and I am sure people are saying Billy Hurley III ??? Well I was initially drawn to him when I noticed he was 2nd to Holmes in 2003 in the strokeplay although his better round came on the other course used and he shot 74 round Oakmont. At the time he was in the top six in the World Amateur rankings but pursued a naval career rather than golf so came to the game quite late in the end. I have noticed most of his best results have tended to be on the Eastern seaboard - it is where he feels most comfortable - born in Virginia, he lives in Maryland where he spent his naval career not a million miles away from Pittsburgh.
Two of his best results on the tour came at Southpointe Pennsylvania when 5th and 10th but undoubtedly two of his best PGA performances came at another US Open venue Congressional in Maryland where he has been 4th and 8th in two visits. Reading quotes from those two starts he clearly likes playing tough courses and playing near home. He re-iterated that fact when he won his sectional qualifier in Maryland by three strokes last week. To re-emphasise his liking for tough tracks - his best finish was 2nd at Victoria National and he has also been 5th in the Honda Classic on the main tour @ PGA National
On the stats front - he is a short hitter but is very accurate and he has got that accuracy back in his last two starts - finishing 3rd and 9th in Driving Accuracy in those two. I think one key stat this week could well be three putt avoidance - he is 6th in that category this year and was 3rd last year
I always try and find some sort of other fact to back things up and I guess this is spurious and only really counts if he is in contention on Sunday which is Fathers Day in the USA. Some of you may remember the story of his Dad going missing last year and sadly taking his own life. Hurley may have his mind on other things on Sunday (often not a bad thing) and there wouldn't be a dry eye in the house considering events in his life this past year £10 ew 1000/1 1/5 7 £10 ew 1000/1 1/4 6 £10 win 1000 Betfair £10 ew 500/1 FRL
june 8th 16.38
The European Tour pitches up in Austria for what is basically a quite weak Lyoness Open and I have gone for a couple at big prices. It is safe to say that Michael Hoey has been in desperate form this year - a string of eleven straight missed cuts before a 41st in Sweden last week. Not much to write home about but last week would have looked a lot better but for a quintuple bogey eight on his penultimate hole on Sunday. He is also notoriously difficult to catch right but he does seem to have an affinity for certain countries where he has done well before. Whilst his win in Russia in 2013 was out of the blue he did back it up with a 4th there last year. His Dunhill Links win in Scotland was a shock but he had won the Amateur Championship @ Prestwick. He won on the Challenge Tour in Portugal and then won the Madeira Open - a Portuguese island, and his win in Morocco followed another win on the Challenge Tour there. His first ever Challenge tour win came in Austria and progressive course form of 48/20 makes him worth a stab this week £4 ew 250/1 (thanks sportingbet) £10 ew 200/1 £30 win 200 Betfair
The other player is Mike Lorenzo Vero - the second musketeer after Dubuisson (not sure who the third is!) I just think his best performances over the last year (especially 6th at Valderrama) give him a squeak here especially after his 11th place last year £20 win 140 £20 top 5 22/1
Over in the States I have plumped for a couple of local Tennessee players - Scott Stallings knows how to win and has been 2nd here before. Apart from his last start he has actually been in good form and the 160 on Betfair was too big to resist for £30.
Some of you may remember me tipping Peter Malnati for this a couple years ago and he was bang in contention for the first three rounds. Good news and bad news - he has now won on tour, he hasn't been playing that great! Apart from the Texas Open he has been missing a lot of cuts but that is nothing new for Malnati and he seems to find form from nowhere on courses he feels at home on. Armed with an early tee time he often gets off to fast starts so is worth chancing in that market as well £15 ew 357/1 (odd price Netbet!!) £20 win 370 Betfair £20 top 10 30/1 £15 ew 200/1 FRL
june 1st 16.40
A quick rundown of this weeks bets
Nordea Masters - a couple of young Swedes - they tend to turn it on for their home event
Christofer Blomberg - apparently come from nowhere but seems to have the winning knack - in October won on the Nordic Tour then two weeks later the Mena Tour, failed to gain his card at Q School but did so in South Africa for the Sunshine tour and won in Zambia on his fourth start. Was 4th last week on the Challenge Tour so in good form £10 ew 150/1 6 places £10 ew 100/1 FRL £10 win 210 Betfair
Sebastian Soderberg - 3rd in this last year having played well the year before as well albeit on different course. Big hitter who has already won on the Challenge Tour this year, qualified for US Open on Monday £10 ew 150/1 £10 ew 125/1 FRL £30 top 5 40/1
The Memorial - small bet on Thomas Aiken who was 4th at Wentworth at the weekend. Been invited to play here four times already - missed three cuts to start though was 2nd after round one on debut but played pretty well last year £20 win 380 Betfair £10 ew 125/1 FRL
Principal Charity Classic Mark Calcavecchia £20 ew 80/1 - what's not to like with course form of 3/3/1 - not playing that badly - was 6th in Tucson and was 4th with a round to go at the Regions Tradition
Corales Puntacana Resort Championship - Rodolfo Cazaubon - won three times on latino Tour last year including next door to this course in the Domincan Republic. Seems to like the sea air and books seem to have forgotten his 3rd in Puerto Rico on the main tour £12.50 ew 235/1 average £10 win 235 average Betfair Would be more but can't get on
may 25th 21.36
Just the two bets this week - in the BMW PGA Championship it pays to look for recent winners and I can't help but think that Soomin Lee is too big a price based purely on the fact he is a course debutant. It certainly didn't stop fellow young Korean Byeong Hun An last year and I think the courses that Lee has performed at his best on correlate well with Wentworth - in particular Hong Kong. £25 win 320 Betfair £30 top 5 40/1.
On the PGA tour they return to Colonial again and Chez Reavie catches the eye as his game is perfect for this classic course as he has shown with a 5th and 11th here before. He is striking the ball well and finally a few putts started to drop last week £30 ew 90/1 + £10 120 Betfair
may 23rd 16.19
Quick announcement - due to various circumstances (personal and betting) I will be cutting back on the golf betting for the near future. This year has been tough and it does get frustrating when the horse betting is simply subsidising the golf losses! As someone said to me (you know who you are!) I am probably guilty of having too many bets - after all only one player can win each event!! Also it has proved harder and harder to get on early prices (possibly a good thing!) and then by the time Wednesday comes they are all bigger on Betfair anyway! So any tips will be out on a Wednesday from now on and they will be much fewer in number - keep an eye on Twitter where I also put out the odd horse tips which have been hugely profitable this year. I will also endeavour to update the P&L at some point!
may 17th 11.42
A decent event in Ireland this week and five bets for me all at big prices - just a few notes about each
Andrew Johnston - just don't get the price - he was imperious in Spain and I can see him winning more events especially with his on course demeanour £40 ew 110/1
Marcel Siem - a while back he laid the demons to rest about getting over the finishing line winning three times in three years inclusing top class events like the French Open and BMW Masters. Been in the doldrums after an early 5th in Abu Dhabi but bounced back in China last time out tying for third and leading the all round stats £35 win 190 Betfair + £30 28/1 top 5
Marcus Fraser - frustrated when he won earlier this year when I was place only! Admittedly best form in Asia but form round tracks like Wentworth and Moscow could prove to be important this week and he was 2nd in Japan on his latest start £40 220 win Betfair + £30 top 5 25/1
Fabrizio Zanotti - playing magnificently tee to green at the moment - just needs a bit of improvement on the greens to contend. Three top five finishes in just five starts last year show he is no back number and he nearly won this event in 2012 albeit on a very different course.£20 win 290 average Betfair + £30 top 5 28/1
Felipe Aguilar continues the South American theme - having a torrid time this year but his first made cut of the year in China spurred him on and he was 2nd the following week. When he hits form he is a man to follow and has a good record on Palmer courses (as do most of my picks). I can't forget he nearly won this event as well back in 2008 at Adare Manor when 2nd on a similar parkland course Aguilar £20 win 310 Betfair + £20 38/1 average top 5
may 10th 17.20
Just time for a quick rundown of this weeks bets so far, in Mauritius the European, Sunshine and Asian tours meet for a tri-sanctioned event in what can only be described as a very weak affair. I will have a go at Max Orrin who knows how to win around the Els designed Four Seasons track having been victorious here in a couple of low key affairs. Whilst this is obviously stronger he caught my eye last week where he finished top of the all round stats in Morocco £60 ew 50/1
On the PGA tour it's the 5th Major at Sawgrass the Players Championship and David Lingmerth seemed an obvious bet at the early prices. He has racked up a whole host of top finishes in the last few years including when 2nd here a few years ago and got his maiden win at the Memorial last year in a decent event. He was another who caught my eye last week having missed all previous cuts at Quaill Hollow he was 17th last week £20 ew 150/1 6 placs + £35 160 Betfair.
Fabian Gomez also did well last week on a course he had always missed the cut on when after a poor opening round he climbed to 9th playing better than anyone else over the last three days. He has now won twice in the past eleven months (plus a small event home in Argentina) and both wins came on courses with small greens so those here at Sawgrass should hold no fear for him. Although it his debut here some players recently have done well on their first sighting with Kisner 2nd and Martin 4th last year, Spieth 4th in 2014 and the aforementioned Lingmerth 2nd in 2013. I must admit to being rather surprised at his huge price tag £8 ew 350/1 6 places, £12 ew 300/1 6 places + £60 500 on Betfair (long gone!)
may 4th 11.29
As some of you may have gathered by some of my Tweets I have an interest in a new company which is taking up quite a bit of my time so previews will have to be brief and probably late at present.
The European Tour is in Morocco this week for the Hassan Trophy II and we return to the Dar es Salam course last used in 2010 when Rhys Davies won. I am more than happy to give the "defending champion" a crack this week. He won twice on the Challenge Tour last year to regain his card, he won at Tecina interestingly six years after he first won there, and he also won this weeks Challenge Tour event exactly a year ago £35 ew 100/1
My only other bet in what really is a weak field is Seb Gros who like Davies won twice on the lower tour in 2015 - both of those wins were in "stronger" field events for that tour. He opened up his season on this tour with a 4th at Leopard Creek but then went off the boil however his recent form has caught my eye. After four straight missed cuts he has made his last four and last week topped the all round stats - a sign that his game is in good shape £35 ew 66/1
I always look at the PGA tour and I know I said I had given up tipping on it but I can't resist a couple of small plays this week. Scott Stallings seems a big price this week considering his recent upturn in form on courses he hasn't played that well before. His form here is awful but has always entered the week playing poorly £15 ew 225/1 + £15 280 Betfair
Local player Harold Varner III I expected to be chalked up at a much lower price coming here on the back of a couple of top ten finishes. Hitting it long and scrambling well seem to be the key to this course and he is definitely long and in his last two events he has been 9th and 2nd for scrambling. He honed his game in this area on the Egolf tour winning twice fulfilling the potential that saw him win the North Carolina matchplay and strokeplay amateur events in 2011. Two of his best finishes came in North Carolina with a 2nd and 6th, try and get a 6 place option as he seems to have a habit of filling that position! £20 ew 150/1 6 places + £5 200 Betfair
APRIL 27th 14.22
It's the Challenge Tours turn to visit Spain this week on a course that was last used in 2005 and 2006 and it looks like a classic Spanish short, tight, tree lined track although scoring should be fairly low. Looking back at those results Spaniards unsurprisingly fared very well and those players at the top of the leaderboard had played well on courses like Moscow, St Omer, Pula, Kenyan Open courses and even island courses Tecina and Santo de Serra.
Home player Jordi Garcia Pinto has always struggled a bit on the main tour but this is more his level. He has won both the Kenyan Open and at St Omer in recent years so the course really should fit him. A 29th placed finish in his home Open reads pretty solid and I would have him a few points shorter £20 ew 100/1
Veteran Mikael Lundberg would love a return to somewhere like Moscow with two wins and a third around that tight track. He showed last year he was no back number when third on the main tour at the tree lined Trophee Hassan and it was only the year before that he won in Austria in a higher league. This course should suit this short hitter and is well worth a bet £40 ew 66/1
Last man in is Scott Henry who has shown a liking for courses I think are relevant with a 3rd in Tecina, 3rd St Omer, and 2nd twice at Santo da Serra so this track should hold no fears for him. He was a solid 11th last week in Egypt with all four rounds in the sixties. This could be the week that he could add to his sole Challenge Tour win to date £30 ew 76/1
APRIL 26th 10.58
Well we managed to get a tied 4th with Scott Hend last week and it was a bit frustrating with Nacho Elvira having a good tournament but providing us with no financial return. The tour stays in China for this weeks Volvo China Open but we have another new course - the Ian Woosnam Topwin course which is more of a parkland venue so I have looked for players who are coming into a bit of form, who maybe a little fresher and who can perform on parkland tracks.
Rikard Karlberg has a great record out in Asia where he is based and finally won in Europe last year on the parkland Milano course. He has particularly good form around the tree lined Dehli course where he has two wins and a third and I think this weeks venue should be right up his street. Since the tour has been out in Asia he has slowly been coming to hand going 40/25/8 and was spared the rigours of Valderamma a couple weeks ago. After a weak opening round last week he played as well as anyone over the final three rounds with a hot putter he was second on the all round stats. Expect a bold showing this week £50 ew 66/1 + £10 85 Betfair
Whilst Nacho Elvira has had a couple of tough weeks he showed yet again his affinity for golf in China and maybe he is just about to show the quality that has netted him four wins on the Challenge Tour in just his last sixteen starts. His form is definitely on an upward curve and maybe last week will give him the confidence to prove this is where he belongs £40 ew 110/1
Finally I thought the price for Fabrizio Zanotti was just way too big on what he has achieved the last two seasons. Whilst he has played well on open courses his win in Germany was on a combined links/parkland course and last year he was 2nd at Woburn and 3rd in Milan.His form in China is not exceptional but he was 6th in this event in 2012 and 10th in the BMW Masters in 2014. He caught my eye last week on his first start at Genzon where after an average opening round he climbed through the field to finish 16th striking the ball excellently all week £40 ew 125/1
APRIL 20th 10.55
After one tough week in Spain the European Tour disappears once more to the other side of the world so we are back to the morning scroll from the bottom of the leaderboard! Three tips from me this week - one from the middle and two from the bottom.
Scott Hend loves this neck of the woods going 6/1/2/1 in Macau, winning in Hong Kong at the end of 2014 and a win in Taiwan. He can also boast a 2/3/6/9 in China if you dip back far enough. I am quite happy to forgive him his last two starts on unfavourable tracks and before that he won in Thailand. He was 15th here on his only start to date so can clearly handle the course and for a man who has shown rcently he can get the job done I felt his odds were too big to resist £40 ew 66/1
My two outisders both have something in common - they both won in China on the Challenge Tour at the Foshan Open played on a very similar course not a million miles away from here. My stronger bet of the two is probably Nacho Elvira - he first appeared on the main tour in 2014 having graduated from the Challenge Tour. Admittedly he struggled a bit on his first attempt but his best finish of the year came here when 15th when only a poor second round prevented him finishing higher. He dropped back to the lower tour in 2015 and quickly gained battlefield promotion securing three wins in just twelve starts! He has struggled yet again this year but his last thre starts have looked promising, a 19th in Thailand was followed by a solid finish in India where he was 2nd at the cut and then he played two good rounds out of four last week in Spain. What also caught my eye was his fast starts in China - 5/10/9/3 in four attempts £20 ew 200/1 £20 ew 130/1 average FRL £15 260 Betfair
The other young Spaniard who won the Foshan Open was Borja Virto Astudillo - his second win of last year. Like Elvira he has also struggled a bit but has also just made his last three cuts. He led wire to wire in China last year so is also worth a small look at in that market £20 ew 250/1 £10 ew 175/1 FRL £10 325 average Betfair
APRIL 14th 16.21
As promised a quick look at this weeks Champions Tour event the Mitsubishi Electric Classic played on the Sugarloaf course which once hosted the Bellsouth Classic on the main PGA tour so a lot of players can call on some experince from years ago. Was tempted by Scott Dunlap as he was based here on this course in Duluth Georgia for many years but I can't see any real value in his price.
Jesper Parnevik is my idea of a decent bet as he was 4th here last year in the 36 hole shortened event and was 2nd on this course on the PGA tour before - he clearly likes Sugarloaf. He has improved his finishes on this tour on courses he has alrady played including a 3rd a couple of starts ago £25 ew 100/1 £15 ew 80/1 £6 ew 50/1 w/o faves £15 80 Betfair
The other three bets are just small ones - Brandt Jobe hits it miles and has also been 2nd here on the PGA tour but has only had six starts on this tour and has hardly been prolific in his career - £10 80 Betfair. Glen Day is also hardly a prolific career winner but has gone 30/28/6 in his first three Champions tour starts so maybe worth a saver as well £10 80 Betfair
Scott Verplank has a 4th and 5th here yonks ago and whilst he hasn't matched the heights of five PGA tour wins in his Champions tour career to date he did lead going into the final round in Tucson before the pressure got to him £6 ew 80/1 £6 ew w/o Langer/Jimenez 50/1 £10 win 80 Betfair
APRIL 12th 11.29
It's great to see the European Tour back on home soil especially as it makes viewing easier and also seeing one of the best courses back in use - Valderrama. I have picked three players who have shown they can play the tough Trent Jones course.
Number one pick and three time tour winner is Richie Ramsay who will try and emulate Willett and win on his first start back having become a father for the first time. He played here back in 2011, shot a brilliant first round 65 and eventually hung on to 3rd. He has been out in Spain for a few days getting himself back in the groove and having already provn he can win around a Trent Jones track which looks and feels very similar to Valderrama (Golf du Palais Royal) I am expecting a big week. He said back in 2011
"Valderrama is the kind of course that suits me.It’s a shot-maker’s course. You need to manoeuvre the ball right to left or left to right, sometimes you need the low shot or the high one and I feel comfortable doing that".
He also has a great record in Spain with three other top five finishes. For a change I am also more than happy with the price £50 ew 66/1 + £15 75 Betfair
Gregory Havret was in fine form the last time we saw him finishing 10th and 6th in the far east and I hope he has kept his ball striking together in the interim. He was 6th here on his last visit behind Ramsay in 2011 and whilst it has been a long time since his last win he is worth a punt this week at triple figure odds £30 ew 100/1
My third pick is SSP Chawrasia who won his last European tour event at home in India on another tight tree lined course. His best finishes have all come on similar tracks to Delhi - 5th Hong Kong, and 9th here on his only start in 2010. He could be a bit of a surprise package this week £25 ew 100/1
APRIL 12th 10.20
Another great Grand National for me - thats three of the last nine winners tipped at big odds - so a little crack at the Scottish version is in order. I think I will stick with one stat and that is the last eleven winners have all been rated 146 or below and the one I like the most initially is my bet from the Grand National who missed getting in Royale Knight. Newlands' string are in fine form with five of his last seven runners winning. Whilst giving his horses prep runs in hurdles has meant they didn't qualify for the big one Royale Knight seems to need these runs - looking back over the last few years his results are impressive when tackling a big staying chase after running in a hurdle
Dec 13 won Scottish Borders National
Oct 14 won Durham National
Apr 15 6th Grand National
Oct 15 won Durham National
The 20/1 is going rapidly and I have had a decent e/w bet

APRIL 8th 12.49
My two for the Grand National would certainly buck the trends as far as the winner is concerned but there are lies, damn lies and statistics and the race is gradually changing with a more compressed handicap, shorter distance and easier fences.
The stats say Vics Canvas cannot win as a 13 year old although strictly speaking he isn't 13 til next week! For his age he is lightly raced not running his first point to point until 2010 and didn't jump a fence until under two years ago. He then won the Cork National easily and was 3rd in the Paddy Power Chase and last year was staying on in the Bet365 Gold Cup when 2nd. Those are three good results in top staying handicap chases, and he ran well when 5th over these fences in the Becher Chase. His last run in the Bobbyjo can be forgiven - he had no chance at the weights and his trainer just wanted to get a run into him. The weight thing is key and as a small horse he struggles to carry bigger weights - his weight for the Grand National is spot on. As an added plus horses sired by Old Vic have a great record with 23 runners in the last 6 years there have been 2 winners and 4 places. I think the prices are way out of line especially 80/1 with 5/6 places.
Whilst Vics Canvas maybe too old Rule the World has never won a chase but he has come close in some big staying chases - 2nd in last years Irish National, was coming to challenge for the Galway Plate when clipped heels between the last two, and was then 3rd in the Kerry National. This has been the aim all season and I can see him running a big race if he takes to the fences

APRIL 5th 11.33
Time for the first Major of the year with the Masters and I am keeping it simple to start with - just the two bets based on the fact that course form is key around Augusta National.
The history of repeat winners is well documented and I fancy Charl Schwartzel could well win his second Green Jacket this week. His form in this event has been a bit patchy since his win but he comes into this week in great form. He had to miss a few events at the beginning of the season due to illness but progressed nicely through the field to win the Tshwane Open in his first event back. He then moved to the States and won his third event the Valspar Championship and a solid 13th in Houston should put him spot on for this £40 ew 40/1 1/4 6 + £20 50 Betfair
My second pick may come as a surprise to many (probably me as well!) but Ian Poulters' form around Augusta is very good. In his last six starts here he has finished top ten three times and he has made the cut in ten of eleven starts. There are certain paralells with Cabrera who won on his 11th start having had three top tens and even Adam Scott who won on his 12th attempt having also had three top tens. There is one other similarity between all three in that they have all won around Asias' premier track Sentosa in Singapore which I think bears some resemblance to Augusta. There is a rule which says that players don't win past 40 but there have been plenty who have finished close in recent years proving that experience counts and Poulter only just turned 40 in January. Reading back through past interviews he loves it here and reckons it is his best chance to win a Major. He comes here buoyed by a 3rd placed finish in Puerto Rico and even if that was a low grade event he seems to have gained some confidence. The main bet has been the top ten one - the price seemed way out of line to me based on recent performances £30 win 270 Betfair £20 ew 175/1 £15 top 5 28/1 inc ties £100 top 10 14/1

APRIL 3rd 13.16
The US Masters is the first of the four Majors and in theory should be the easiest to predict and therefore bet on. The same course Augusta National is used at the same time of year and the field is set relatively early. It is also the smallest sized field of the Majors with only around 90 competitors and with some ageing past winners we can immediately dismiss. If you are looking to have a bet here are some Do’s and Don’ts to help guide you
Don’t back any player who is a debutant at Augusta National - it is a well documented fact that Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 remains the only player to win on his first appearance. It comes as no great surprise as it is a course which a player needs to know before performing well on with so many nuances it is unlike any other golf course.
Don’t bet on the Par 3 contest which takes place on the Wednesday. To put it simply the field is unknown as not all Masters contenders play and there are various past champions and honorary invitees who take part. Also and most importantly you will often find players allow their five year old sons/daughters/nephews etc to putt out hence rendering their scores null and void.
Don’t bet on the winner of the par 3 contest - not one player has won on the Wednesday and gone on to win the full title on the Sunday. Padraig Harrington has to tell himself not to play well in the par 3 contest which he has won three times recently - he then might give himself another chance at a Major.
Don’t back defending champion Jordan Spieth unless you think he is a player of the highest calibre. The only players to win back to back so far are - Nicklaus 65/66 Faldo 89/90 Woods 01/02 so if you don’t think he belongs in such illustrious company give him a swerve.
Don’t back players who have passed their 40th birthday - the last sixteen winners have all been in their 20’s and 30’s. The last winner in his 40’s was Mark O’Meara back in 1998 and he was only 41 and was at the peak of his career winning the Open Championship later that year
Do make sure your player made the cut at last years Masters as all the winners bar one in the last twenty years made the cut at Augusta the year before. The only player to have missed the cut was Tiger Woods in 1996 so I guess that is one exception we can accept.
Do now wait until the week of the tournament to have a bet as bookmakers will offer greater value and enhanced place terms (ie top 6 or even 7) to attract new clients
Do check the weather - not just the forecast compared with tee times as to who might get the most favourable conditions such as wind strength but also look at what the weather has been like running up to the tournament. If it has been really wet and Augusta National is playing even longer than normal then you can rule out the shorter hitters.
Do bet in running - all bookmakers will be doing this through all four days but try and wait until your player is through the 12th hole. The reasons are fairly straightforward as the all time hardest holes are the 10th followed by the 12th and then the 11th . After that tough challenge things ease down a little as the 13th is the second easiest and the 15th the easiest.
Do look closely at Hole in One betting - Odds are normally around 10/11 Yes and 10/11 No so there will probably be value on a No bet. In 2004 Chris Dimarco and 2013 Jamie Donaldson both had an ace on the 6th hole but all the others in the last 20 years have been on the 16th and usually when the pin is in its Sunday position - so you will probably have to sweat things out!

march 30th 12.16
No PGA tour tips from me this week especially after last weeks huge disappointment where we had three runners going for us and they all managed to fall short of the places. So instead it's the Champions tour and the tour
Woody Austin finally broke his Champions tour duck last time out and I wouldn't be surprised to see him kick on with that win under his belt. He has an impressive 40% top 5 strike rate on this tour including when 5th here last year. That was his first start on the Champions tour last year and came on the back of seven missed cuts on the main tour, this season he looks to have dedicated himself to this tour. He has always played well in Mississippi and lets not forget it was only 2013 that he won on the PGA tour in the state £75 ew 22/1 + £20 23/1 Betfair
The tour travels back to South America for the Brazil Champions where you have to look for a short hitting accurate player who can go low
Matt Fast is yet to win on tour but seems an improving type who was 9th here last year. Reading his blog from a few years ago he was very fond of the track saying it suited his game but he struggled with the putter and missed the cut. He led at the cut in Louisiana before fading over the weekend when conditions changed £12.50 ew 125/1
Steven Alker is your archetypal short but accurate player, he can get hot as when shooting 61in Utah when he won in 2013 and 62 at the Boise Open in 2014 when 2nd - interestingly those courses were also at elevation. He is in good form with a 6th last time out at home in New Zealand and 6th in Bogota on this tour. £40 ew 50/1 + £15 50 Betfair
Kent Bulle sprung to like in South America last year on the Latino tour where in 18 starts he recorded finishes of 1/2/2/2/4/9/9/10 to finish 2nd on the Order of Merit. One of those seconds was in Brazil and I reckon he is a very promising player £5 ew 66/1 £15 ew 50/1 £30 win 60 Betfair
Lastly a little £5 ew 275/1 on Benjamin Alvarado who won this in 2013. Sadly the talented Chilean has had the last few years interrupted by a succession of injuries but is now back playing - hopefully he retains his ability

march 21st 18.14
Not much time to do a preview so just the bets atm - main thing for Puerto Rico is the Florida link
Steve Wheatcroft £12.50 ew 150/1 £8 top 5 33/1 £20 win 190 average Betfair
Wes Roach £10 win 175/1 £30 top 5 35/1 £15 win 180 Betfair
Will Mackenzie £50 ew 66/1
Jonathan Byrd £45 ew 60/1
Derek Fathauer £35 ew 80/1

march 16th 11.20
Quite often we get an event with virtually no course form to go on but this week with the Indian Open we almost have too much! Delhi is a tight course, short in distance with no rough at this time of year which makes it easy to roll the ball off the fairway and into trouble. The stats for past events here are a bit misleading as it suits the shorter accurate players and the home contingent have a distinct advantage.
Chiragh Kumar won on his last start here in November and has also been 2nd and 4th in recent years in this event before it was co-sanctioned so I think we can safely say he can play the course. Also he can usually find form at home when seemingly in a poor run of form, since his win he has been poor but last week in Thailand he played really well for three rounds - each a 68 but struggled in the wind on Saturday with a 76. The last two weeks he has been 5th and 8th for Driving Accuracy and last week led the putting stats - if he can bring that form home he has a great chance. He also often gets off to a fast start at home in Delhi so I have had a small bet in that market as well. £30 ew 125/1 + £10 ew 80/1 FRL
Shubhankar Sharma has been 4th in the last two Panasonic Opens around here and a solid 17th in the co-sanctioned event last year. He has been in great form in limited starts in 2016 - 1st and 2nd in home events and 3rd in the Bangladesh Open on the Asian tour - in those 12 rounds of golf he is 57 under par - and he is only nineteen!!! This is a big step up but he is a big talent £30 ew 125/1 + £5 150 Betfair
Whilst not exactly qualifying as the "home contingent" Sri Lankan Mithun Perera also likes it round here - his last five finishes read 9/8/2/3/4 - with the 3rd being in last years co-sanctioned event. He is yet to win on any main tour but does have five wins on the Indian tour. He has been in the top three for driving accuracy in each of the last three years on the Asian tour so it is no wonder this course suits - he could well be the surprise package of the week £10 win 180 Betfair, £12 top 5 inc ties 25/1, £20 top 5 30/1, £25 top 10 inc ties 12/1, £10 ew 100/1 FRL
Lastly I will put up someone who is definitely not local - Robert Dinwiddie. A couple of poor missed cuts here in the past are overlooked as he was either injured/out of form. His recent improvement each week is eye catching 23/15/10 after opening the year with four missed cuts - this has been down to some excellent play tee to green which is what is needed here £20 ew 100/1
march 9th 14.18
This weeks New Zealand Open gets underway in about five hours time so best get your bets on quick! Looking at the last three renewals of this something struck me
Zunic was 23 just turned pro two months before and finished 8th the week before
Papadatos was 23 been a pro for a while and finished 15th the week before
Higginbottom was 19 still an amateur and finished 10th the week before
I therefore looked for under 24 year olds, possibly not been pro for long and who had a decent finish last time out
Anthony Houston is now 24 and been a pro for a little while - got his playing rights this year by winning the Aus Q School in January and has remained in good form since (20th last week) He was right up with the pace at the cut last year before fading and is a more rounded player now £20 ew 125/1
Tom Power-Horan has just turned pro having been a good amateur - was 9th last week in New Zealand and could maintain that form £10 win 200/1 + £20 top 5 40/1
On another note in the Valspar keep an eye out for Blayne Barber - found his form back on familar home greens when 3rd at the Honda and was 5th here behind Harris English in the Southern Amateur
march 8th 14.59
I think it would be an understatement to say I am a great fan of the Black Mountain course - the venue for this weeks True Thailand Classic - I tipped Marksaeng and Hiratsuka when it was used on the Asian tour and topped that with Dodt at 125/1 last year - so the pressure is on!!
First bet that was struck was on Johann Carlsson who can probably boast the strongest form on the European tour this season of those on show. A 7th in the Joburg Open was followed by top twenty finishes in each of the Desert Swing events - he has certainly been consistent in better events. Course form seems fairly imperative as well and you can tick that box as well with a 7th here last year. The only drawback in a way has been the price - I got £25 ew at 66/1 but to be honest am loathe to take a lot shorter about a guy who hasn't won on the main tour yet. Maybe I will get the chance to add to that in running.
Main bet of the week for me is David Lipsky - I like to follow a player who is showing some progressive form and he certainly fits the bill on that front - improving with every start this season culminating in a 9th in Perth. He also has shown a similar improvement in his stats in each start especially in the GIR category which is the strong part of his game when on song and this is exactly what he did before winning in Crans in 2014. His course form doesn't look that impressive with a 50th last year but he showed he could play the course well with an opening 65 which left him 2nd after the first round. He broke through on the Asian tour with a win this week in March 2012 and I give him a great chance to add to his tally this week £75 ew 80/1 + £5 85 Betfair
I am happy to side with local Thai player Chapchai Nirat due to his excellent course form - forget last years missed cut as he was coming back from injury but prior to that he was 5/14/3 in the Asian tour events at Black Mountain and was also 5th here in September in a strong ADT event. He has won a co-sanctioned event before - exactly nine years ago, and has won three other Asian tour events since. He has been in pretty good form this year and on a course he plays very well I give him a strong chance at decent odds £12.50 ew 100/1 £15 win 100/1 £25 top 5 18/1
My outsider for the week is one of my old favourites Mardan Mamat who has also won a co-sanctioend event although for his you have to go back exactly ten years to the week!. He is now in the twilight of his career but has still shown he still has game by winning a couple of Asian titles in the last eighteen months, was 3rd in the Mauritius Open last year and was top Asian player at the Perth International when 8th. He has also shown he can handle the course with a 14th and 6th here and I think he is overpriced this week £20 win 220 average Betfair £25 top 5 40/1
march 2nd 09.18
I may not have time for a write-up this week - so for now here are the bets for this weeks WGC Cadillac Championship - hopefully get a chance to do some trading on Betfair
Jason Dufner £8 ew 125/1 £25 ew 100/1 £15 130 Betfair
Kevin Kisner £40 110 Betfair
Russell Knox £45 185 average Betfair
David Lingmerth £25 ew 100/1 + £15 200 Betfair
Andy Sullivan £25 ew 125/1 + £20 200 Betfair
february 23rd 14.58
A bit galling last week with Marcus Fraser winning having backed him place only but his win ratio has been awful but his place ratio (especially in Asia) has been great. To be honest he was lucky to win and if I had read his comments about how badly he was playing before the off I wouldn't have backed him at all!!
The European tour travels onto Australia for the Perth International so I have another week of interrupted sleep! One thing I have noted is that links players have a great record here - Els won the Johnnie Walker by ten shots in his prime, surprise winner Jeong was an Amateur Champion at Muirfield and Olesen has been first and second in the Dunhill Links. With it playing fast and hard after dry conditions I can imagine this trait will continue. Apologies for the number of bets but I found dit difficult to leave players out!
James Morrison - finally got his second European tour win last season in Spain and was also 2nd in the French Open - an event he came close to winning in 2011. He has been slowly coming to form this season and will hopefully be inspired returning to a course where he was 4th in October 2014 breaking the course record in the process. £50 ew 66/1 + £10 70 Betfair
Julien Quesne is a player to note when he finds a bit of form - all his wins have come soon after a top ten finish and thats what he did last week - 4th in Malaysia. Whether this weeks course will suit I am not sure but he did shoot an opening 67 on his one start £30 ew 66/1
Paul Dunne fits the profile of a good links player having led the Open and Dunhill Links and has just turned pro and was a very impressive 13th at Torrey Pines. I got on at 66/1 for £15 ew but to be honest wouldn't want to take a lot less
Benjamin Hebert is a player who will surely one day be winning on the main tour having had three wins on the Challenge Tour in 2014 and three times in 2011. He had a better year on tour last year keeping his card largely due to a 4th in the Dunhill Links and has already gone a long way to keeping it again making all his cuts and finishing 3rd at Leopard Creek £12.50 ew 80/1 £20 top 5 inc ties 14/1 £15 win 85 Betfair
Ryan Fox causes me a bit of concern - I would have thought he would have played more this year but I can't find anything that says he's been injured - maybe he just fancied a break. He has now won three times in small events in the past sixteen months and I really do think the breezy fast conditions will suit his game as he showed when 9th in 2014 £35 ew 80/1
JB Hansen - 7th and 21st in two starts here - some of his best starts on the main tour - his best was a 3rd on the Scottish links at Castle Stuart. He got his card back by finishing 2nd and 3rd in the last two events on the Challenge Tour and there were signs in Dubai and Qatar that his game is coming round. Although a win is probably hard to envisage I do think the place part of the bet is a little high £20 ew 150/1

february 17th 13.12
Due to BT disconnecting my broadband because of non payment of a bill on a fictitious account that even they don't know exists (yup you really couldn't make it up!) I am unable to write and upload a preview so just this weeks bets!
Maybank Malaysian Championship
Gregory Bourdy £50 ew 66/1
Chris Wood £25 ew 40/1 + £20 40 Betfair
Scott Hend £5 ew 100/1 + £25 ew 80/1
Mikko Ilonen £40 ew 50/1 + £20 55 Betfair
Marcus Fraser £25 top 5 32/1
Dimension Data Pro-Am
Jordan Smith £30 60 Betfair
Callum Mowat £15 ew 200/1 + £10 210 Betfair

february 10th 14.44
The European tour travels back to South Africa after the Desert swing for the Tshwane Open which will be held at the Pretoria course for the second year running. It's a trappy little berting heat and I have only had a couple of bets but may well add in running.
Clement Sordet is a bet at the price purely based on his potential and what he has achieved in his fledgeling career. He was a top amateur and won on the Alps tour as an amateur aged 19 in 2011. Last year he turned pro and won on just his 4th start on the Challenge Tour but its what he did in Thailand in December that caught my eye. He finished tied 2nd to Donaldson alongside Westwood and beating An and Garcia by four and Kaymer by six. A performance akin to that which also gained him an Open slot should see him go close here. £40 ew 90/1 + £20 95 and £30 top 10 12/1 both on Betfair.
I found it hard to pick one of the four young South Africans who have shown so much in their homeland already this season but have gone for one slightly older and at a much bigger price. Dylan Frittelli has been around a bit longer but has always had potential - one of his best results came when he lost in the playoff before Christmas in the Australian PGA Championship. He finished 18th at Glendower improving throughout the week and was a solid 10th here last year and I am not put off by the missed cut in the Joburg Open as he has never played well there £40 ew 100/1
Over in the States I have been through the Champions tour event with a fine toothcomb trying to unearth another Esteban Toledo. I was drawn to the fact that course form is not really relevant and debutants have a good record. Ian Woosnam stuck out as a big price - he has never played here before but warrants some respect as he won and was 3rd on this tour last year. He closed with a pair of 69's at the weekend after a tardy start and if he carries that momentum into this week then he could challenge £12.50 ew 250/1

february 10th 10.23
I promise this will be the last PGA tip I put up before the Puerto Rico Open! I guess I have just been keeping my eye on things waiting for the Pebble Beach pro-am as it is one of my favourite betting heats of the year. That is down to tipping two winners in the past - Oberholser 50/1 and Points 100/1. Both of those were picked due to course form - some of which was hidden which leads me to Chesson Hadley. His form here over the last two years of a brace of 10th places is obvious to all but he was also 2nd in the Pebble Beach Invitational in 2013. He would have been much closer than 10th last year but he went for the 18th in two on Sunday and wound up taking a double bogey.
I am not put off at all by his recent form - in fact I am rather encouraged - in the past two years he has come into this event in awful form and produced a top ten. He would have finished a bit higher in Phoenix if someone hadn't picked up his ball on the ninth hole on Saturday leading to a double bogey and his performance was much better than last year. He also made the cut at Torrey Pines for the first time and what really caught my eye was that he led the field in ballstriking that week.
After shooting a 64 on the Shore course on Thursday last year he said
"it is my favorite place on the planet and it's just, no matter what happens the rest of the week, this is just awesome. It's just nice to be here" and you only have to look at his Twitter feed to see how much he is in love with Pebble Beach.
He is quite happy in the pro-am format - he calls himself a "chatterer" and feels relaxed and I guess that shows with a 3rd in the pro-am and his first top five finish on the PGA tour came at the Shriners event - multi course events certainly don't phase him!
I guess the cherry on top of the icing of the cake for me is that he became a dad for the second time not long ago (a daughter this time) and he won a few months after first becoming a father - so all in all it added up to a big bet for me and hopefully not too much egg on my face! The Betfair bet will be traded to a degree should he get into contention and as he plays the same course first that he shot 64 on last year hopefully it will be early!!
£40 ew 250/1 £14 top 10 14/1 inc ties £16 top 10 14/1 £125 250 Betfair to win £31,250
february 3rd 19.16
A quick summary of other bets - maybe I shouldn't have said I would be swerving the PGA tour!
Aaron Baddeley like Stanley is a past winner of the Phoenix Open and has shown some good signs in recent months - mainly due to a better attitude and a new coach - £20 win 210 Betfair £15 top 5 35/1
Ryan Palmer often gets off to a fast start and normally on the same course
Waialae 1/5
Las Colinas 2/1/5/3
Boston 1/3/1
Scottsdale 1/2/1
He has opened up with a 64 in three of the last four years here and when he shot 76 in 2014 he followed it up with a 64 ! £20 ew 45/1 + £10 50 Betfair
On the tour we move further south for the Club Colombia Championship and I have taken a put on Nicholas Lindheim. He won his first main title on the Latino tour in Colombia in October 2014 and added to that win in Mexico a year later. He has shown he can be competitive in this grade a few times so is worth a bet this week where he should have positive memories £20 ew 100/1 + £10 ew 125/1
Finally on the Champions tour I think all the favourites are worth opposing this week, Langer has to fight the short putter, Perry has poor course form and only won once last year, Monty has been poor on both visits, Ddurant hasn't won on this tour yet in 32 starts, and Allen hasn't won for over a year and is now 57. I have therefore gone for three players at big prices who offer a bit of value.
Todd Hamilton £10 ew 150/1
Esteban Toledo £10 ew 150/1
Jerry Smith £10 ew 200/1
february 3rd 14.26
I have had a couple of plays in the Phoenix Open this week - first up is Kyle Stanley who won this in 2012. We have had numerous repeat winners of this event over the years which is quite unusual and judging from the current state of his game Stanley could possibly join that list. If we look back at his win in 2012 we can see a bit of a pattern that he is following this year - 23rd in the Sony, missed cut in the old Bob Hope - he then suffered a final hole disaster at Torrey Pines whilst ranking 2nd on the all round stats. This year he has been 13th at the Sony, missed cut, then last week whilst he only finished 25th he led the all round stats for the week. The key to playing Scottsdale well is hitting greens these days and that part of his game is certainly in good shape. I was rather surprised to see him chalked up early doors at 200/1 and had £20 ew + £5 200 Betfair + £8 250 Betfair
There does seem to be a bit of a profile for some winners - when you look at Holmes, Stanley and Koepka - they were all aged 23-25, were all making their course debut and were all top amateurs having qualified for the US Open as amateurs. Smylie Kaufman fits that description to a tee, already has a win and won in the desert on the PGA tour last year. I have a feeling he will relish the challenge and will turn in a good performance this week £10 ew 100/1 + £30 125 average Betfair
february 3rd 13.06
No joy last week but we have a very busy week this week - hopefully we can make amends! The Dubai Desert Classic is this weeks European tour event and whilst we lose Grace and Garcia from last week we gain Rory as a short priced favourite but prices should be roughly similar to what they were last week.
I will stick with Mikko Ilonen this week - he was solid enough last week and can boast some good performances around the Emirates course as well with a 5th and 6th over the years. The bigger price was the deciding factor to go in again £45 win 100 Betfair £40 top 5 18/1
I had a small bet last week on Soren Kjeldsen and whilst he threatened for a while a poor third round cost him but he bounced back with a best of the day 68 in the final round. He too has shown the odd good performance here (best of 5th in 2012) and is worth siding with at a three figure price £25 ew 100/1 + £15 130 Betfair
Ross Fisher seems a big price to me this week compared to other non winners around the same price. He was part of the European team that hammered Asia in the Eurasia Cup and then seemed a bit tired in Abu Dhabi before a closing round 67. His form on the Emirates course is very solid with only one missed cut in eight attempts and best finishes of 5/10/10/11/13 £25 ew 100/1 + £5 110 Betfair
Roope Kakko is an outsider I like although I wasn't sure which market to back him in! He was a respectable 23rd on his debut last year ranking 1st in putts for round and 2nd for putting average. He seems to like putting in the desert as last week he was 7th and 1st in those categories. He can also boast a win in Oman on the Challenge Tour. In the end I plumped for £20 ew top Continental European 80/1 and £10 win 450 Betfair
Second outsider is Nathan Holman - a talented youngster who won the Australian PGA Championship in December. He has improved for each start this year and whilst this is his debut he shouldn't be such big odds £10 win 620 Betfair £8 top 10 25/1 Inc ties £12 top 10 25/1
Finally a first round leader bet although I would prefer it if Richard Sterne had a morning tee time! His last seven opening rounds here read 69/69/69/68/66/62/66 which has been good enough for 4/4/1/3 in the last four starts.The 4th in 2011 cam from a late tee time - lets hope the wind doesn't blow too hard in the afternoon! £25 ew 80/1
january 31st 12.48
Was kinda glad Olesen didn't win in Qatar - two weeks in a row tipping a player to win and seeing them win the week after would have been hard to take! Also on the list was Fleetwood because of the Gleneagles link and he made a mess at the end to finish shy of the places.
It has been a week of frustration - in Singapore play was suspended with Liang in the clubhouse leader on -10, Spieth has a five foot birdie putt on 18 whilst Song has a 10 footer for par on 16. I only have Liang win only on Betfair - woke up too late to lay him back around 2/1. He was 100/1 only with Stan James, B365 and Skybet were the only ones betting without the favourites - none of which I can use. I suppose miracles can happen but I won't be holding my breath tonight when they resume!
Steven Alker still has a good chance of a return in Panama where a final hole double bogey from leader Thompson brought the field back into play.
In the Farmers Insurance we are sure to see some fun and games with rain and high winds forecast tee times have been brought forward. Scores will be high and I wouldn't be surprised to see someone post a number - I have had a small dabble on Vegas and haven't discounted in running play Bud Cauley yet
january 27th 18.46
A quick rundown of other bets
In the Singapore Open Spieth is a very short priced favourite and rightly so, but I am not convinced how good he is yet on a new course which is tough with difficult to read greens. My two suggestions to oppose him with are Wen Chong Liang (£23 130 Betfair) who has a great record around Sentosa including a 2nd, 4th and 10th and made it through Open Qualifying before and he is also a past winner in Singapore. Hyung Sung Kim has some good form here as well in those events and is now a multiple winner on the Japanese tour £20 ew 125/1
I have had my annual bet on Michael Thompson in the Farmers Insurance - low amateur here in the 2008 US Open and finally showed a bit more promise in this event last year opening with a 65 and finishing 11th. He keeps popping up on leaderboards of late only to do something stupid - last week he had three double bogeys in five holes on the host course on Saturday but topped the putting stats for the week with just 23.75!! £10 ew 250/1 5 pl + £5 ew 225/1 6 pl + £15 top 10 20/1 + £10 240 Betfair + £9 ew FRL North 50/1
The tour starts this week with the Panama Championship and I have had a couple of bets there. In the past older vets who have won events around the world have come to the fore here although youngsters Foley and Ortiz have thrown a little spanner in that works so I have gone for one from each camp.
Rodolfo Cazaubon won three times on the Latino tour last year including in Panama and also the Peru Open which past winner of this Scott Dunlap has a fine record. He may find a bit of inspiration as well in that he played on the same Eisenhouer team as Ortiz which finished 2nd in 2012 £35 ew at an average of 110/1
Steven Alker certainly fits the older vet category with multiple wins all over the place, he also was 7th here on his debut years ago holding every chance on the final day £20 ew 100/1 + £5 100 Betfair
january 26th 10.16
Time for a preview of the Qatar Masters which starts tomorrow and finishes Saturday. I will confess I had an extremely long "short list" and it has been difficult to knock players out but it's all about the price at the end of the day. I will admit to taking a shorter price than I wanted on Soren Kjeldsen but it is only by way of a saver due to his consistent form last year and his solid long term form here at Doha £12.50 ew 80/1.
Looking back through past winners I think everyone has come to the same obvious conclusion that great links players have a great record here, although the course couldn't be described as links at all it plays under very similar conditions and the roll of honour bears that out. I also found a few years ago that there is a very close correlation with form at Gleneagles.
Mikko Ilonen is certainly a fine links golfer and has some good form here in the last few years with a 9th and 2nd (playoff loss to Garcia). It has to be said that once he plays a course well he comes back quite often to perform well at the same venue - Bro Hof Slo mc/3/1 being a good example. To be honest 2015 wasn't a great year for the Finn but it is sometimes difficult to reproduce great years like 2013/14. From what I have read he has entered the new year full of hope and expectation - and has a new man on the bag in the form of Jason Hempleman - top caddie who has worked for Howell, Monty and Molinari. He kicked off in Abu Dhabi last week after a ten week tournament break and was more than happy with all three rounds under par on a course he hasn't done that well on before. £12.50 ew 80/1 £62.50 ew 66/1
If Ilonen had a poor 2015 then Brett Rumford endured a nightmare - having been taken ill in South Africa he ended up having surgery and part of his small intestine removed. Whilst he played a few events he didn't really play again properly until November winning the Western Australia PGA and followed that up with 6th and 8th in his home Masters and Open. He is a fine wind player and has a best finish here of 3rd in 2010 but has thrown in lots of low rounds over the years. He certainly fits the profile of top finishes at Gleneagles having been 2nd there twice and 6th and 7th. After a seven week break he caught my eye last week with his 35th in Abu Dhabi on a course he had missed his last four cuts. £25 ew 200/1 + £20 220 Betfair
january 20th 11.20
I wasn't going to get involved with this weeks old "Bob Hope" - the newly named Career Builders Challenge but with a new host course designed by Pete Dye and only La Quinta retained from the rotation we may have to leave event form behind so I have found three big priced outsiders who may feel comfortable on the new host course.
Robert Garrigus will have fond memories having played the Stadium course at Q School finishing 2nd in 2006 and 6th in 2008 to gain his tour card. His best result in this "event" was when 2nd in 2012 firing an excellent 64 at La Quinta and in 2010 his one tour victory came at a multi course event.He also showed a liking for another Dye course - TPC Louisiana where he was 5th in 2014. His 33rd last week was better than it looks - he was 4th for GIR and had he not double bogeyed the par 5 last (an easy birdie chance) he was booked for a top ten finish. This explains why I took £35 @ 150 on Betfair on Sunday night! but I have added £5 ew 250/1 £25 ew 200/1
In 2008 Fathauer beat Garrigus to finish 2nd at Q School and in his second tour start in 2009 opened 64/65 in the Bob Hope before collapsing. He disappeared off the golfing map for a number of years until an excellent season in 2014 on the tour culminating in victory on the Pete Dye Sawgrass Valley course. It was only two months ago that he led the OHL Classic heading into Sunday before finishing 4th and I think the books have severely underestimated him £5 ew 350/1 £5 ew 300/1 6 places £5 ew 250/1 £35 330 average Betfair
Lastly young Korean Seung Yul Noh could add to his 2014 victory on the Pete Dye Louisiana track as he also has form on the host course - 3rd in the 2011 Q School. He had his best ever finish in the Sony last week with all four rounds under par, closing with a 65 and being 2nd for putting £10 ew 200/1 + £20 230 Betfair
january 19th 12.10
Well we came very close to a bumper payout last week with 150/1 pick Lombard finishing 2nd having traded at 6/4 when he held a two shot lead but his putting stroke deserted him for a while. With Walters hitting the frame as well it wasn't a bad week in the end. On first look I wasn't inspired by the Abu Dhabi Championship but with a pair of short priced favourites and Stenson and Kaymer looking iffy in the mix of late I think it creates some each way value, plus outsiders have won the last four renewals
Brandon Stone has to go on the list having won two of his last four starts and having inspired Porteous and Lombard last week I am sure the reverse will work this week! His course form at Royal Cape and Glendower was nothing to write home about before his wins yet on his only start here at Abu Dhabi in 2014 he was 19th shooting the 4th lowest score (a 67) in the final round. He is a much better player two years on and in my opinion is a big price £30 ew 125/1 + I was lucky to get £10 200 on Betfair
Of the shorter priced players I like the look of Bernd Wiesberger who has played some good golf in the desert the last few years - with a best of 6th here last year. He won last year at Le Golf National (Larrazabal has won there and here) and lost in a playoff at the Irish Open. With a top 5 strike rate of 15% over the last four years he is well worth a play at the price £30 ew 60/1 + £30 75 Betfair
I will take a chance with Thorbjorn Olesen who finally returned to the winners enclosure at the Alfred Dunhill Links last year. Interestingly that win came three years after he was 2nd in that event - and guess what - he was 2nd here three years ago - perhaps that's an omen! £40 ew 90/1 + £15 120 Betfair
Alex Noren looks a huge price to me - probably based on the fact he has been ravaged by injury the last few years - first by constant wrist problems and then last year - just after he won again he picked up a stress fracture in his lower chest. He returned to finish off the season but will be much fitter now and has been practicing out in Dubai the last few weeks. He is a good desert player and has some low rounds around this weeks track and knows how to win so he may just make up for lost time this week. Someone told me this morning he has just become a dad as well so maybe he will be inspired by that £30 ew 200/1 + £15 215 average Betfair
january 13th 18.28
The Sony Open is one of the few PGA tour events I will be getting properly involved in this season - I guess I have a soft spot for it having bagged a couple of 100/1 winners in the past. It is an event where winners often fit the same profile - aged 30 upwards with normally a win or two already on tour, not really a big hitter or even that accurate from the tee but hits plenty GIR, plenty of course experience with some low rounds but not necessarily a high finish. Using that it is quite easy to narrow down the field and I have gone for three from the off.
Jason Dufner is my best bet here as he fits the profile to a tee! At 38 he falls in the right age category and he has three PGA wins to his name and whilst not long or overly accurate when on song he hits a lot of greens. His course form mirrors that of a lot of past winners with a couple of missed cuts, a best of 13th but rounds of 64 and 65 thrown in for good measure. Last season wasn't his best but he rounded it off with a top ten at the RSM Classic and a win in the Shark Shooutout. He ticks all the right boxes for me this week £40 ew 80/1 + £20 80 Betfair (now drifted to 90)
Marc Leishman has changed clubs which is always a worry but his course form and the way he won at the Nedbank Challenge before Christmas makes him a bet this week. He has never missed a cut in six attempts with best finishes of 5th and 9th and an excellent scoring average of 67.75. It comes as no surprise he is a popular pick this week and I am glad I got on early £25 ew 40/1 + £20 50 Betfair
Troy Merritt only has one PGA win to his name which came last year meaning he already has an outing under his belt last week in Hawaii. He opened with a 75 but then shot 14 under for the last three rounds so has clearly shaken off the rust. Whist he has missed two of four cuts here he co-led after round one on his debut and last year was 3rd heading into the final round so is certainly worth a bet in the FRL market as well £15 ew 250/1 + £10 ew 150/1 FRL
Last bet is a small FRL bet on Webb Simpson who has a Thursday record here of 2/62/24/5/7/2 - £10 ew 80/1

january 13th 15.03
Time for a quick look at this weeks picks - first of all the Joburg Open - where over the last few years local players from Joburg or the wider area of Pretoria have dominated so thats where I originally concentrated my research.
Main pick is Justin Walters who was born in Joburg although he no longer lives there and who was 2nd here in 2014 when he had a good chance of winning heading into Sunday. Whilst he is still to win a big event in South Africa he has two smaller titles to his name and came close to winning the Portugal Masters as well a couple years ago. What really caught my eye about his 4th place in the South African Open last week was his poor course form at Glendower in previous attempts - c/c/52/c - so his game is obviously in good order. The price of 50/1 was enough to tempt me in - just - £25 ew 50/1 6 places £25 ew 50/1 5 places
Young Zander Lombard is sure to be inspired by fellow youngster Brandon Stone last week although he probably isn't quite as talented. As a Joburg resident he knows the courses well having played plenty of amateur events here. Before Christmas he travelled to Australia and played really well most of the week - he had a great chance of winning before coming 4th in the PGA Championship. He played really well last week to finish 12th on a course he had missed the cut badly both times he had played previously so I think he is maturing quickly as a player £30 ew 150/1 6 places
One non South African I want to back this week is Craig Lee despite the lack of professional titles to his name. His 24th place finish last week was probably better than it looks as he undid himself with a quaddruple bogey eight on Sunday. His best finish in South Africa came in last years Tshwane Open when 3rd and whilst his best finish in this event is 17th he has plenty of low rounds and been in contention on numerous occasions £10 ew 125/1 £15 ew 100/1 6 places £5 win 125 average Betfair

january 6th 17.49
Apologies for delay - a brief rundown of this weeks bets
Hyundai - Scott Piercy - a three time winner on tour who doesn't deserve to be this big a price - found his legs in Hawaii in the Sony Open last year when 2nd £30 80 Betfair
The South African Open returns to Glendower for the third time - the two winners Madsen and Sullivan both have good records at Kennemer and East London - and I have concentrated on these and other parkland courses
Gary Stal - main bet of the week - was 5th here last year even after opening with a 75. He then went on to win in Abu Dhabi and be 4th in Dubai before tailing off. He was a two time winner on the Challenge Tour in 2012 and if he can start this season like last then he is a big price this week - £50 ew 50/1 + £50 65 average Betfair
Oliver Fisher - course debutant who has been 2nd at East London and 11th and 9th at Kennemer so the course should suit. He ended last season in solid form with nine straight cuts - three figure price just seemed a little big £20 ew 125/1
Johan Carlsson - 7th here on first ever European tour start so should have some fond memories. Best ever finish was 5th Kenemmer and played well a month ago to finish 3rd in Mauritius £15 ew 200/1 + £20 275 average Betfair
Estanislao Goya - was 2nd in Russia in September on a similar layout - winner Slattery was 3rd here last year. At home on parkland courses and won in South Africa two years ago £15 ew 250/1 + £15 340 average Betfair
Gary Boyd - best form on parkland courses - 2nd and 5th Royal Park I Roveri. Solid form on the Challenge tour in the second half of last year with six top five finishes - which maybe the best he can hope for this week - £5 ew 175/1 + £20 top 5 35/1
Nacho Elvira - just seemed a big price on Betfair for a player who won three times on the lower tour last year £15 610
Jbe Kruger - my one home player - seems to start well here - 1st and 2nd last two years after opening round and also ledd his home Open a few years previously £12.50 ew 80/1 + £20 ew 66/1 FRL
Robert Rock - just too big a price on Betfair to ignore £20 160
Christiaan Bezuidenhout - oops - nearly forgot him - won two minor events around Glendower in the Autumn. Says he loves the course and won the Sunshine Tour Q School £10 ew 200/1 FRL
january 4th 10.39
Well I would love to say I am fit and raring to go for 2016 but have been suffering from a cough and cold for the past week - actually most golfers would say "flu like symptoms" or even pneumonia lol. It always seems to strike when I take time off - maybe I shouldn't bother! Anyway - lets just say I am raring to go.
There will be a few changes this year - no more horse tips - although there maybe the odd mention on Twitter - but tbh it is more of a hobby which I make a small profit in.
On the golf front - again I will concentrate on events away from the PGA tour where I have continued to struggle to make a profit except in weak events and I may dabble in running a bit more. On the results page I will break down profit by event and tour rather than a weekly P&L.
I will also be changing when most tips go up - due to the increasing stranglehold on any wothwhile betting accounts it looks like I will be increasingly dependent on Betfair to get on and the markets don't normally get competitive until Wednesday. Although this poses a bit of a problem with seas of blue on Oddschecker early in the week - I will just have to sit back and bide my time. Of course if I see a price I like and I can get on - I will!
Well thats it for now - hoping for a good year again - cheers
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