December 13th 13.53
This week we have the third of the Australian “Majors” - this time the Masters from the Victoria Golf Course. Greg Chalmers is attempting to do what Robert Allenby achieved in 2005 - win all three of his home Majors in the same season. To do so he will have to overcome Luke Donald - the big question is - how tired is the world number one? I do wonder if he had known what would have happened over the last few months - would he have committed to play in Australia - somewhere he has never actually played before.
The Victoria course hosted this event last season and has also been host to the Australian Open in 2002 and the PGA Championship in 1999 as well as hosting various Victorian Opens before that so there is a fair bit of course from to look at. Despite his current level of form I think Chalmers may struggle as he hasn’t got the best form on this course. Robert Allenby probably has the best course form on offer - never out of the top eight in his last six visits but with only one win in six years since he won the triple crown you have to pass at odds below 12/1.
Main pick for me is Jarrod Lyle who is in a happy stage of his life at the moment. He has had quite a journey in his life having been diagnosed with leukaemia as a teenager so just making it to being a professional golfer has been a major achievement. He hasn’t had a great season on the PGA tour - failing to keep his card but returned to Q school and finished 5th. He then flew home and on Saturday got married to his pregnant fiancee and will actually be on his honeymoon whilst playing this week! He was 5th here last season and to win the Masters in his home state would finish off an incredible couple of weeks for the young Australian.
Second pick is a more risky proposition but I think that Gavin Coles is overpriced at 80/1 this week after an excellent end to his season on the Nationwide Tour which saw him win in Florida and get his full card for next year. He hasn’t played in six weeks and it does seem strange that he tees it up this week but he has often played well when fresh. I think the main reason for playing is his good course form - 5th in the 2002 Australian Open and 7th in the 1999 PGA Championship. He is a second grade Australian player much like Greg Chalmers so I don’t really think he should be priced up with some no hopers.
Jarrod Lyle ½ pt ew 40/1
Gavin Coles ¼ pt ew 80/1

December 5th 15.48
It’s been a very long season on the European tour and what is now a truly global golf tour comes to its climax in Dubai with the top 60 on the money list (minus Rose and Jacobson) playing for a massive prize fund. The whole week will revolve around the battle for the money list with McIlroy trying to overtake Luke Donald but the Englishman showed on the PGA tour that when he needed to perform to win that money list he was up to the task. A top quality field like this usually brings out a top quality winner and whilst it is difficult to ignore the market leaders I still think there is some fair value to be had further down the field.
Gregory Havret is a man to back when he hits form and apart from two poor results in Singapore and Malaysia where he didn’t adapt to the weather he is on a long run of career best finishes. Starting at the Dunhill Links (39th) he was then 3rd in Portugal when we were on, 11th and 6th in Spain and then last week he chased Rory all the way in Hong Kong to finish 2nd. All these performances far outstripped anything he had achieved at those venues in the past. The second question I asked myself was can he cope with high quality opposition and the answer has to be yes - he proved that in last years US Open when 2nd and when he beat Phil Mickelson in his prime at Loch Lomond. As for course form - well he was an average 35th here last season on his debut but was not in the best of form. In his current form and good mood I can see a big week for the Frenchman and he is a decent punt for me at the price.
It is interesting to see the prices about the multiple winners on tour this season -Clarke is 200/1, Hoey 200/1, Bjorn 100/1, Noren 66/1 whilst Garcia and Donald are 18/1 and 12/1 respectively. That is quite a range of prices but the one I like the look of is Alexander Noren. His wins in Sweden and Wales this year came on the back of missed cuts so he is quite difficult to predict. He said on his blog this week he has been tired after a long season but his training schedule makes Vijay Singh look lazy! He has spent the last week in Thailand recuperating and practising and I just wouldn’t be surprised to see one more good performance to round off his season - after all he was 6th here on his only appearance in 2009. He really is hard to judge but I would have him a shorter price even in this field - don’t bet with Hills 66/1 they are shockingly only 4 places.
Of the other players Luiten is interesting - having finally secured his maiden tour win he could easily follow up but he could also have been partying too hard! Quiros has a good win ratio and loves golf in the desert but was really poor in contention in Hong Kong. I do think Poulter will go well as he invariably does at this time of the year but his price is about right.
Gregory Havret 1 point e/w 80/1
Alexander Noren ¼ pt ew 66/1

November 29th 17.05
I knew Rory McIlroy would be a short price this week but as low as 4/1 in my opinion is farcical - he is not Tiger Woods in his prime as he simply cannot get over the winning line. The good news about this is that prices lower down the field give us some cracking each way prices to have a go at.
In recent years Spanish golfers have a great record with Jimenez winning twice and Lara and Olazabal one apiece - this maybe because the tree lined course is similar to the older Spanish courses these players grew up playing. Other winners Bourdy and Jacobson had won at Pula and Valderrama respectively so I think there is definitely a link. All of this leads me to my main pick for the week Pablo Larrazabal. He was not in the best of form last year when he missed the cut here but prior to that had been 22nd and 4th so can certainly play the course. He has had a great season with his second tour win coming in the prestigious BMW International (an event he had been 3rd in the year before). He has also had four other top five finishes and was 10th last time out in Japan where he seemed to have found his putting stroke again. I know it’s a top quality field at the top end of the market but there is a lack of strength in depth and do not understand why he is 66/1 - try and get the six places on offer with Ladbrokes.
Michael Hoey is difficult to catch right and doesn’t have the best of current form but he would have finished higher in Singapore last time out if he hadn’t stuck his ball in a tree on his final hole. He doesn’t have great course form but made the cut for the first time last season when 25th. The question is as a two time winner this season why should he be 80/1 - twenty times the price of the player he out battled on the final day at the Dunhill Links.
Mark Foster is another player who has had a great season - by picking and choosing events where he knew he stood a greater chance he has managed four top four finishes. He has struggled to get his second tour win but it might just come on a course where he has been 4th and 11th before.
After a great season in 2010 Rhys Davies has struggled this year but showed signs of a return to form in the last few weeks. He was 3rd in the Johor Open and then last week combined well with Jamie Donaldson in the World Cup when they finished 8th - only shooting one bogey between them all week. His results don’t look spectacular here the last two seasons but he can definitely go low as he has opened up with a 65 on both occasions.
Finally a player who I was pleased to see keep his European tour card last week when he finished 3rd in the South African Open. Richard McEvoy needed a top five finish and he delivered and it was good to read how elated and relieved he was on his blog. To be honest he probably doesn’t have to play this week but it is interesting he has flown out. He has played the event twice before firstly back in 2003 when he had just got his card by winning the European Q School. His first two rounds were stunning and he led by four and then three shots before stumbling over the weekend. In his other visit he was 5th after the opening round so I am sure you know where I am heading! He must like this time of the year as his one professional win in 2004 in Panama came this week. He will be in relaxed mood and playing a course which suits his game perfectly - back him outright and first round leader.
Pablo Larrazabal ½ pt ew 66/1 Ladbrokes 6 places
Michael Hoey ¼ pt ew 80/1
Mark Foster ¼ pt ew 100/1 Sportingbet
Rhys Davies ¼ pt ew 66/1
Richard McEvoy 1/5 pt ew 125/1 + 1/5 pt ew 1st rd leader 100/1

November 22nd 09.42
This week we see the second of the three Australian Majors with the PGA Championship coming from the Hyatt Coolum course. There are plenty of Presidents Cup players on show and lots of young bombers but the course is a tricky one which takes some knowing and last year veteran Peter Senior was the victor proving the point that knowledge is key here.
There is one Australian who knows the course inside out - indeed his two professional victories both came here so once more I put forward Nick O’Hern. His recent Australian record after the open now reads eleven top five finishes from sixteen starts. His form around Coolum since the PGA Championship started here (his other victory was in the 1999 Coolum Classic) read 8/16/4/3/1/20/5/3 so it really is impossible to leave him out this week. Yet again though the win odds are a bit on the skinny side but the top five price is huge so I have split the bet a little to have more on the place.
Having mentioned that course knowledge is important my other pick has shown that - Aaron Townsends form around Coolum was mc/mc/mc/55/70 until last year when he made a vast improvement on his way to a 6th placed finish. In the last two years Townsend has had an indifferent season playing around Japan/Asia and has taken a few events at home to get into the groove. In 2009 he took a couple of starts before winning the New South Wales PGA and last year took two starts before he was 4th in the New South Wales Open and then 6th here. Last week he was 8th on his home course in Newcastle so maybe the trend is continuing. It is a tall order but the 50/1 odds on a place is simply too big.
Nick O’Hern 1 pt ew 16/1 generally + 1 pt top 5 4/1 Centrebet or 16/5 Unibet
Aaron Townsend 1/5 pt ew 200/1 Betfred, Tote

November 21st 15.32
This years South African Open moves to a new course in the Gauteng province - the Jack Nicklaus designed Serengeti. On inspection it looks like a fairly typical Nicklaus design with room off the tee but you still have to hit it in the right part of the fairway for a decent approach to what look like being slopey greens. I am going for one from the home contingent and sticking with Graeme Storm from last week.
All the talk this week is about the young South Africans Coetzee, Van Zyl, Kruger etc but in my mind they are all pretty short in price as time and time again they come up short in their quest for a European Tour victory - I would rather side with a player who has proven he can actually win a main tour event and who wins regularly in the smaller events on his home Sunshine Tour - Darren Fichardt He won the Brazil Open in 2001 and the Qatar Masters in 2003 but now plays mostly at home where he has twelve victories including two this year. He has been incredibly consistent at home and before last week he hadn’t finished outside the top fifteen in eleven events. He put in a solid performance last week when 13th and in the past when entering his home Open in good form he has fared really well. In his last twelve attempts he has no fewer than five top six finishes - take the 40/1 Boyles each way.
I think Graeme Storm may have been a little bit rusty last week after his three week break at home with his recently extended family but he still managed to finish 15th confirming his game is in better shape now than it has been for most of the year. The Englishman nearly won this event back in 2005 when 4th so he does seem at home in South Africa. He is more than capable of playing Jack Nicklaus courses having been 2nd and 5th at Gleneagles and whilst there are no elephants roaming around Scotland Jacks courses often play similar and Storm showed last week when topping the ball striking stats an important part of his game is just where it should be.
Darren Fichardt ½ pt ew 40/1
Grame Storm ½ pt ew 45/1

November 15th 18.24
This is the fifth rendition of the Iskandar Johor Open, originally an Asian Tour event this is the first year it has been co-sanctioned by the European Tour and the second time it has been held at the Horizon Hills course. The Ross Watson designed course is brand new but is set to be one of the best in Asia, and is similar to the course he designed at Kota Permai just next door in Malaysia. That link leads me to my first pick - Thaworn Wiratchant who won one of his many Asian titles around that course and was 8th around Horizon Hills last season. He has been in solid form all season - winning the Indonesian Open back in July and he finished runner up two weeks ago in Taiwan. Last week he shot an impressive second round 63 on the way to his best ever finish at Sentosa - 19th . Whilst this is a very strong field at least he has won a co-sanctioned event before and at 66/1 represents a bit of value.
The quality of the field at the top of the betting is pretty high and the prices seem about spot on to me but as we saw last week it is possible for one of the lower ranked Asian players to be competitive so my other pick is another Thai player - Chawalit Plaphol. He plies his trade mainly on the Japanese tour these days but did return to his homeland in June and win the Queens Cup on the Asian tour, He has been in good form over the last month with a 2nd in Japan and is coming here with a solid finish in Singapore and his best ever finish in Taiwan. Whilst he has never won a co-sanctioned event he does have a 9% top five strike rate in such events. If we combine that with the fact he was 7th here last season we have an outsider at 200/1 who could give us a good run for our money.
Thaworn Wiratchant 1/4 pt ew 66/1
Chawalit Plaphol 1/5 pt ew 200/1

November 15th 09.41
In the past the Alfred Dunhill Championship has been one of the first tournaments of the new European Tour season - this year it is one of the last as we count down to the finale of the Race to Dubai. My three selections for the week actually resemble a round from Countdown as I have one from the top, one from the middle and one from the bottom!
Hennie Otto was going to be my number one pick and early prices of 50/55 on Betfair indicated he would be around the price I wanted so when the books opened at 25/1 I simply had to pass and move on. Next on my list was Graeme Storm and at 40/1 he is at the bottom end of what I would bet at but in a very weak field I am happy to have him on side. The Englishman has had rather an indifferent season in which he was struggling to keep his card but an 11th place finish at Valderrama has sealed it. Two days before that last event he had some good news that might have spurred him on - the birth of his first son. His stats for that week certainly improved and he now comes to an event he hasn’t played since 2005 when he missed the cut but in his previous visit he was 8th at the Leopard Creek course. It really is a poor field with most of the top European players staying in the Far East and he is one of the few players on view with a full tour win under his belt.
As this was the first event on tour for many years for a lot of players this was their first experience of European Tour golf and hence holds a lot of good memories and that is the case for both of my next two picks. Bernd Wiesberger first played here three years ago after graduating from the Challenge Tour and opened up with a fine 68 before fading away. It has taken him a few years to get to grips with life on tour and last year he won twice on the Challenge Tour and towards the second half of this year he has come into his own on the main tour. He is a bit hit and miss but in his last nine events he has had three top five finishes in much better fields than this so I really don’t see why he is 100/1. This weeks course should really suit his long hitting game much better than some of the recent courses he has played and he needs a good finish to make it to the Race to Dubai final.
Last choice is a huge price mainly based on his early season form when he missed his first sixteen cuts after graduating from the Challenge Tour but Matt Haines has started turning his season around in recent weeks and he needs a top two finish in South Africa in the next two weeks to keep his card. He admits that he really wasn’t ready for the main tour and simply didn’t put in the hard work required and by the time he realised it is possibly a bit late. He finished 18th at the Dunhill Links in a good field and in his last event was 20th in the Castello Masters and 4th in the all round stats. He certainly has the talent to gain a top two finish and I don’t see why he should be ranked amongst the lower players on the Sunshine Tour.
Graeme Storm ¼ pt ew 40/1
Bernd Wiesberger ½ pt ew 100/1
Matt Haines ¼ pt ew 250/1 Betfred, Tote

November 8th 17.04
This week we see a more stellar than average field line up for the Australian Open due the arrival of the Americans for the Presidents Cup next week There are however question marks surrounding the market leaders who will also be distracted by events to take place the following week. Who knows what sort of form Tiger Woods will be in and his price is purely guess work from the compilers and Adam Scott will no doubt be distracted by Williams’ comments about Tiger last week - they certainly seemed to influence his play in Shanghai. Last weeks pick Ogilvy played very poorly on a course he had played well before and Jason Day has never really played well in Australia. The Americans are a solid bunch but it is nigh on impossible predicting who will play the best golf this week and all this leads me to having a decent wager on Australian veteran Nick O’Hern. I know he never really wins (apart from the 06 Australian PGA) but there is huge value in the place part of the bet. In the last five years he has played in fifteen events at home and racked up a stunning ten top five finishes including two 2nds and a 3rd in his home Open. He played in this event last year at The Lakes and after a poor opening round of 75 came through the field to finish 24th - it is worth looking closer at that as it was his first tournament in seven months having gone under the surgeons knife. His current form isn’t too shabby either - he finished 6th in both his last events on the PGA tour last month and sandwiched inbetween those finishes celebrated his 40th birthday. There are many examples of players finding a new lease of life once they reach the big 4 0 and O’Hern could well start to produce the goods this week. I would recommend a bet of 1 point each way at 33/1 but if you can bet with Paddy Power split the bet 0.5 ew 33/1 and then 0.5 ew 22/1 top Australian - this takes out the risk of a few Americans hitting the places.
One outsider I like the look of is Kurt Barnes who was a promising young talent after winning the Australian and New Zealand amateur and the Riversdale Cup in 2002/3 but rather lost his way after that only winning a few small Australian events. After turning thirty this year he has started to show some more promise and has won on the Japanese and OneAsia tours over the past six months. He warmed up for a tilt at his home Open with a 2nd place finish at home in New South Wales last week shooting rounds of 63 and 64. Of the longer odds players I think he stands the best chance of making the frame.
Nick O’Hern 1 point ew 33/1 or 0/5 ew 33/1 + 0/5 ew top Aussie 22/1 Paddy Power
Kurt Barnes 0.25 ew 150/1 Tote, Betfred

November 8th 09.25
A huge field of 204 players lines up on Sentosa for the Singapore Open which is a co-sanctioned event between the European and Asian tours. The reason for the large field is that the players play two courses on the first two days the Tanjong and Serapong with the latter being used over the weekend. Whilst top world class players tend to win this event (Adam Scott has three titles to his name) we also do find a lot of bigger priced players placed so I have split the tips between one top flight golfer and two from left field.
I strongly considered Gregory Havret considering the form he is in at the moment but at 50/1 I would want to see some strong course form. He missed the cut on his first visit here and then last year opened with a decent round but then on day two knocked his first tee shot of the day into a tree and then lost the plot. I went back to course form and to be honest I really can’t fault Anders Hansen who has been 5th and 2nd in his two visits. Whilst he is without a win this season he has some top class finishes in huge events which is what we find this week including - 2nd in Dubai, 3rd in the WGC Cadillac and 3rd in the PGA Championship. He doesn’t win many events but these days seems to save himself for the quality events so at 40/1 is still worth an investment.
Next up is big hitting Aussie who can also boast some decent form at Sentosa as he was tied 3rd here in 2009 with Adam Scott, behind Poulter and Liang but ahead of the Hansen, McDowell and Schwartzel. He is not a very consistent golfer but when on song he has his fair share of “podium” finishes and that’s where the value is with this bet as we are getting 50/1 about a top six finish as several bookmakers are offering those terms with the larger field. He struggled a bit in Europe this season apart from finishing 4th in the Nordea Masters but a few weeks ago was 5th in the CJ Invitational in Korea. That last bit of form is quite interesting as Ron Fream designed Nine Bridges on the Korean island of Jeju and he also co-designed the Serapong course here on Sentosa.
Last up is a 45 year old Welshman who is in danger of losing his card and has no course form to shout about but Stephen Dodd has a few things which recommend him as a bet this week at 250/1. His five year exemption for winning the European Open comes to and end this season and he currently sits at 120th on the money list so needs one more good finish to get his card. When he missed the cut at the Madrid Masters a month ago he flew home and won the Welsh PGA championship - whilst it was a very small event it gave him the boost he needed and has gone on to finish 38th, 20th and then 9th at Valderrama. His first tour win came in Asia in China back in November 2004 and he often maintains his form once he finds it and I think he could really be a surprise package this week.
Anders Hansen 1/2 pt ew 40/1
Scott Hend 1/4 pt ew 200/1 Boyles, Paddy Power, William Hill 6 places
Stephen Dodd 1/4 pt ew 250/1 Betfred, Tote (or 300/60 Unibet)

November 1st 09.15
This week we see one of the final big events of the season with the WGC HSBC Champions event from the Sheshan course in China. Over the years this tournament has grown in stature but I still do think it needs adjusting. It is an event for tournament winners from throughout the world but bizarrely they picked five events on the Japanese tour which means the leading money winner on that tour who has won three times in recent months has slipped through the net which is a great shame as it would have been nice to see how Sang-Moon Bae faired in such a field. Despite that misgiving it is a pretty top quality field we have lined up even with Garcia, Donald and Mickelson not turning up.
My main bet is reserved for a player who seems to find his “A” game in top quality events and finds himself the holder of three WGC titles and a Major. When Geoff Ogilvy was asked why he seemed to play better in big events he had no idea yet this year, in a season dogged by injury, one of his best finishes was 4th in the US Masters. Also when the pressure was on he placed 3rd in the BMW Championship which got him into the Tour Championship so he finished the season in good style. His big wins have come in the World Matchplay twice and the CA Championship in 2008 plus of course the 2006 US Open but his back to back wins in the SBS Championship are also worth noting. That first event on the PGA tour played in January is reserved purely for winners of tour events from the previous season so Ogilvy is more than happy to compete in events which purely contain event winners.
When looking at Ogilvys’ stroke play wins it becomes evident he wins on courses once he has a degree of experience. His first PGA win on the Omni Tucson course came at his 5th attempt. Doral 4th, Hyatt Coolum 3rd, Plantation 3rd and The Lakes 4th. He has played Sheshan twice with finishes of 3rd and 10th so is clearly more than happy on the course. He shook off any rust last week playing in Shanghai where he played well for a couple of rounds so is well acclimatised and to be honest with his season being curtailed by injury he is fresher than some others. He ticks a lot of boxes this week and is well worth a decent wager.
One other player who really caught my eye for this week was Alex Noren who has two good wins in Europe this week but he simply throws in too many bad rounds to be trusted in such a big event at around the 50/1 mark. There have been surprises in this event in the past so for my other pick I will go for Pablo Larrazabal to continue the Spanish theme of recent weeks. He has had a great season on tour which included a win at the BMW International (an event Howell won before winning this in 2005) plus numerous top five finishes in decent events. He has finished in the top ten in each of his last two starts in China (plus a 4th in Hong Kong) so is very comfortable playing in the region. He took part in this event back in 2008 following his debut tour win and opened up with an atrocious round of 78 but played the last three rounds in three under par, and at 125/1 I think he is worth a small risk.
Geoff Ogilvy 1 point e/w 33/1
Pablo Larrazabal ¼ pt ew 125/1 generally available

October 18th 14.06
It is the final event of the PGA tour proper and the rather long winded Children’s Miracle Network Hospitals Classic brings things to a close. Usually this event is all about players fighting for their playing rights for next year but this year there is the added twist of the fight for the money list which has come down to a duel between Webb Simpson and Luke Donald. They are justifiably one and two in the betting but with the added pressure I couldn’t recommend anyone to bet them. To start us off Stephen Ames simply has to be a pick as two time champion in 2007 and 2009. He was unable to defend last year due to an injury but it would come as no surprise to me to see him pick up win number three in his favoured state of Florida. It hasn’t been the greatest of seasons for the veteran although he did manage a 3rd in Puerto Rico in March. His poor results have largely been due to a cold putter and a poor scrambling game but that has improved in recent weeks. Three weeks ago at the Justin Timberlake he led the putting stats for the week and he was 8th in the putts per round category last week and was 2nd for scrambling. I was rather astonished to see Stan James open at 100/1 which was quickly snapped up but at 66/1 he is still worth an investment.
Next up is a player who is having a stellar season on the PGA tour Tommy Gainey who has no fewer than five top five finishes in 33 starts. This is largely a continuation of his Nationwide form last season when he had two wins and three other top fives. He has the ability to play well from seemingly out of the blue so the last two missed cuts don’t put me off. Tommy “Two gloves” shot to fame here in 2008 when from nowhere he nearly won going down by a single shot to Davis Love III and was four shots clear of those in third. This is the first time he has returned and it would be a fitting venue for his debut victory. The place part of the bet is very good value at 20/1 when you consider his top five strike rate and he has the added incentive that a top five finish this week would probably get him in the top thirty on the money list and into all four of next seasons Majors.
Last up is a man who seems to like Florida in October - David Mathis. Last year he won the Jacksonville Open on the Nationwide tour which secured his card for the main tour and in 2007 he was 2nd in the Miccusukee Open which maintained his playing rights for the 2008 season on that tour. This year he has sewn up his card largely due to back to back 15th placed finishes the last two weeks. Playing in relaxed mode in the State that has brought him most success he could be a surprise package.
Stephen Ames ½ pt ew 66/1 Betfred, Tote
Tommy Gainey ½ pt ew 80/1 Betfred, Tote, Victor Chandler
David Mathis 1/5 pt win 150/1, 1/5 pt place 30/1 Unibet

September 27th 09.12
For my first tip for the Dunhill Links I am going to travel back in time four years. A young player from Northern Ireland had played in a few events as an amateur and in 2006/07 he made the cut at the second attempt at the Australian Open and the Dubai Desert Classic. He then surprised the world by tying for 3rd after the first round of the Open before fading to 42nd. After playing in the Walker Cup he turned pro finishing 42nd on his debut at the British Masters before turning up for the Dunhill Links (having plenty of links experience as an amateur) and finishing 3rd. Move forward four years and a young British golfer finished 12th in the Australian Open (just after losing in a playoff in the NSW Open). He then made the cut in Dubai and stunned the world by leading after round one of the Open before finishing 30th. He played for the successful Walker Cup team before turning pro and on his debut despite struggling in round one went on to finish a very creditable 10th in Austria. Spot the similarity?! Tom Lewis has the advantage that he maybe is a better links player than Rory having won the Boys Amateur at Royal St Georges, and this year won the St Andrews Links Trophy at the Old Course. It really is a big ask in a top field but he seems to have a sensible head on his shoulders and is definitely up for it.
Home grown talent has performed the best in this event over ten years it has been going providing eight of the ten winners and I will return to the home players for the third and fourth picks but before those I will go for South African Jaco Van Zyl. He is a standing dish on the Sunshine Tour especially in pro-am events - indeed two weeks ago he won the Telkom PGA pro-am for the third year in a row by six shots. This year he has brought that form to the European tour with a 2nd at the Hassan Trophy (another multi course event) and three weeks ago he was 3rd in a top field at the European Masters. This is the first event on this tour he has ever played before - in 2005 he missed the cut but at least he has some course experience. I was a bit worried about the weather as he admits he hates playing in cold conditions but this week it looks like the Caribbean will be coming to Scotland so there will be no fears there.
I try to avoid obvious picks when I can as they are rarely decent prices but I will take a risk with Paul Lawrie this week even though the weather is set fair. Apart from his win here in 2001 he was 4th in 2007 plus of course he has fond memories of Carnoustie. He has actually been having one of his best seasons for a long time finishing 1/5/5 in Spain earlier in the season. He hinted at a return to form last time out in Holland when 16th but might well be trying the long putter this week - it doesn’t seem to have done a lot of other golfers much harm of late.
Last man up is John Parry who I have backed a few times of late only to see him play poorly. He has complained that the greens he has been playing have been poor even though other players have gone well - I guess it all depends on what you are used to. Last year he turned his career around at this time of the year when winning in the multi course Vivendi Cup before finishing 3rd here. He says he feels quite happy on links courses having played them many times in his amateur days which weren’t that long ago. At the price I am happy to take the chance the young Englishman will show a return to form.
Tom Lewis ½ pt ew 110/1 Bet365 6 places (100/1 Ladbrokes)
Jaco Van Zyl ½ pt ew 110/1 Bet365 6 places
Paul Lawrie ¼ pt ew 100/1 Ladbrokes 6 places
John Parry ¼ pt ew 140/1 Bet365 6 places