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The Short Priced Favourite
This week sees Tiger Woods tee it up in the Australian Masters and he will be going off a very short favourite 3/1 at the Exchanges and roughly 5/2 at the bookmakers - the question is - should punters duck events like this or dive straight in?

I think it is important to realise that bookmakers dislike short price favourites for two main reasons - the first is very simple - the possibility of that player withdrawing. As there are no real rule 4 deductions in place for golf tournaments bookmakers could be left in a very difficult position should this happen. As yet the scenario has never really arisen on main tour events but layers on Betfair often cry foul when short priced players pull out and they have a valid point when they are trying to lay books as low as 105%.

Secondly we often found when Tiger was 3/1 or less for an event an outsider would be 100/1 instead of 50/1 - however his place odds shouldnt really double - the favourite can only fill one of the places available. Hence many a time a book can actually be overbroke on the place part.

So basically our advice when there is someone really short in the field is to look further down for a bigger priced participant with a good top 5 strike rate - and don’t forget to look at the place only market which iis often a simple reflection of the outright market.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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